PT add-on

ocallagh

Thinking of writing a little application for Poker Tracker. It would track your hole cards and flops for a particular session and produce a luck factor!

The range would go something like this...

0.0 would mean you got no premium hands and hit no flops.
3.0 would be the max.
Average would be in or around 1.5

Three reasons for developing that I can see beneficial:

Stop you getting into a false sense of security when hitting everything.
Stop you tilting when you see your BR depeleting if you have had a genuine bad run of cards.
Most importantly, if you are losing and presume it is because of bad variance it will tell you whether or not this is true or not.

Do people think this would be beneficial or just stupid?

BigCityBanker

Good idea but id imagine the scoring system would take alot of work. Damn if you write this and its successful then you will be famous for sure.

cardshark202

You could hit tons of monster flops and get no action. The amount you win per hand should probably used in the scoring system. I would be somewhat interested in seeing this come to fruition.

Mr. Flibble

You generally lose most in a session when you get good cards but they are 2nd best. Will it take this good but bad luck type luck into account?
I like the idea but I think it will be pretty complicated for any calculations after the flop.
Say you get AA twice in a few hands, thats good, but if you get AA twice and some body gets KK twice in the same hands thats much better, unless they suck out. Would it take that into account?


Can you make a program/postgres query which will look at all the times you put the money in the pot before the river and calculate your EV and multiply it by the pot and then correlate that with what you actually did win? I'm convinced , like all good players, that I'm getting sucked out on in big pots more than odds should dictate!

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

ocallagh

Yes it would be very tough to develop but I think it could be done.

If you flop quads with AA on a dry board and someone open pushes with K high, is that luck? Is that amount of luck similar to someone flopping a full house and paying you off on that same board?

My inital thoughts were to calculate your expected return for a hand, eg AA. I make say 10BBs on average with AA so if I made less than 10BBs I would consider it ul that nobody had a hand... but this does not remove skill. I could have played it wrong etc. So we must remove all skill from this forumla. To do this I think it should be kept very simple.

Two categories:
Preflop luck factor.
Postflop luck factor.

Preflop is easy. Rate hands as per sklansky ratings and develop an easy formula.

Postflop requires a bit of work and I'm not quite sure how I'd do it.

[nicK]

ocallagh wrote:

Thinking of writing a little application for Poker Tracker. It would track your hole cards and flops for a particular session and produce a luck factor!

The range would go something like this...

0.0 would mean you got no premium hands and hit no flops.
3.0 would be the max.
Average would be in or around 1.5

Three reasons for developing that I can see beneficial:

Stop you getting into a false sense of security when hitting everything.
Stop you tilting when you see your BR depeleting if you have had a genuine bad run of cards.
Most importantly, if you are losing and presume it is because of bad variance it will tell you whether or not this is true or not.

Do people think this would be beneficial or just stupid?

something very similar is being worked on at the moment at pokerxfactor..

have a look at the 3rd video below.. (free from pokertracker though)

http://www.pokerxfactor.com/free_videos.htm

AmarilloFats

Bit of a multiheaded hydra the more ye think about it..
Hit miidle set = good luck
Other dude has Top set = bad luck
He only had 1/2 stack = good luck

Ste05

I'd love to see this happen, I'd even like to just know how good my starting hands are compared to the average expected hands for a session. If I'm getting better than expected starting hands, and I lose money, there's a problem I need to look at, it might be bad luck, but it also might be my bad play. [EDIT: Obviously I mean bad play here]

Similarly I might get a bad run of cards, and make money, then I can go back and see if I was playing well and using position aggression etc. or just getting lucky from bad play.

I could also look at my VPiP as compared to the amount of good cards I was getting and see if I was too loose or too tight,

I think this could be an amazing application for analysing your game, I wouldn't be too bothered how lucky or unlucky I was, but I'd love to use it to look for leaks in my game that I might not have noticed before, or had been overlooking on purpose and blaming it on running badly.

Just some initial thoughts, I'd say post flop would be equally great, but obviously much more difficult.

cardshark202

Having given this more thought I think this would be almost impossible to do. Luck is pretty hard to quantify.

RoundTower

I don't think this would work very well, there are so many variables to consider that on any day anyone could be considered lucky or unlucky.

Or working backwards, the only true measure of luck would be to see how much you earned over a given period, compared to how much you would be expected to earn. But it's generally agreed you can't find out your true expected winrate except by playing an ungodly number of hands.

ocallagh

RoundTower wrote:

I don't think this would work very well, there are so many variables to consider that on any day anyone could be considered lucky or unlucky.

Or working backwards, the only true measure of luck would be to see how much you earned over a given period, compared to how much you would be expected to earn. But it's generally agreed you can't find out your true expected winrate except by playing an ungodly number of hands.

yeh you're right. it would be incredibly tough and probably impossible to do. I think I'll write a really simple one for preflop cards so you can compare your preflop holdings with your VPIP for a session and compare it to your profit for a session as Ste05 mentioned.

kincsem

This time last year I tried to program RoundTower’s question – “How often will you have the nuts”. I used my favourite program Microsoft Visual Foxpro. I was about 90% complete, but due to family circumstances I stopped. I had sixty two small programs written to get to a near complete state.

The reason I mention that is it gives me an idea of the size of the task facing Niall.

You need to gather the outcomes, identify each (bust, pair, two pair, trips, straight, flush, house, quads, straight flush). Some of these outcomes need further work to identify the kicker/s (bust, pair, two pair, trips, flush, quads).

I think preflop should be straightforward. You deal a few hundred thousand hole cards (randomly), flops, turns, and rivers. Then gather the stats and get the percentages.

There are a 19,600 three card flops you can deal from 48 cards. You could try to do it theoretically i.e. look at the board, see the outs the weaker player has, and calculate the odds.

For example, you have AcAd, your opponent has 3h7s, and the flop is Kd5h9h. His chances are slim, but he has backdoor flush (hearts) and straight draws (needs 46 or 68). Of course he can also do it in style by hitting a 37 finish. My way to do this is to deal those flop cards, then run tens of thousands of turns and rivers, and gather the stats. Dealing out a gazillion hands is better imo as it ignores flaws in your reasoning. In the above example you might forget the 33 or 77 finish.

The problem becomes easier when the turn card is known. You only have to deal with outs the underdog can hit.

1,326 possible hold cards (52*51 / 2*1)
19,600 possible flops (50*49*48 / 3*2*1)
47 possible turns
46 possible rivers

You would need to run a massive simulation as 1326 x 19600 x 47 x 46 = 56,189,515,200 possible outcomes. Of course some of the situations are identical (in poker terms). In the example above if Ad was As it would not affect outcomes.

7 cards from 52 is 133,784,560 outcomes, but they can be in any order. AA,567,K,3 is different in poker terms from 53,AAK,67 although the final outcome is the same.

You could run all the possible outcomes, and the win/lose percentage for each at every stage worked out in advance.

What you want to know from you hand history records is something like –

Lucky hole cards?........80/20 your pair dominates his pair
Lucky flop?.................70/30 he gets outs
Lucky turn?.................95/5 he misses his draws
Lucky river?.................100/0 he doesn’t get the two outer

You might also like to know how many big blinds you wagered on each situation.

Instead of working out all possible situations in advance it would probably be better to have a database of hands played (hole cards, flop, turn, river) and work out the percentages on that history. The problem with hand-histories is the data needs boiling down to extract the juice. There is a lot of waffle.

No I don't know “How often will you have the nuts” but I could find out, and for each of the 169 starting hands.