Would you believe. Odds anyone?

a147pro

If you play online long enough you'll see it all. The other night I was watching the missus play a S'n'G when three players took a raised flop. They all got it all in on the flop. Each had a pocket pair and made a set! On the flop!

Got me thinkin about what the odds would be. Anyone any ideas, full maths please so I can see if my knowledge of probability has improved since the leaving.

Some other instances...

A seven card straight flush in hold'em. Saw this online once. I remember reading something saying that in Cool hand Luke the charachter should have copped he was being cheated when his quads lost to a straight flush as the odds of getting the latter in 5 card draw were 1 in 65,000. Obviously they're less in hold em as you've 2 extra cards. But a seven card straight flush, would that be 1in 65,000 X 47 X 46 ????? Or is it just 1 in 52X51X50 etc.???? (or is that for a specific as opposed to any straight flush?)

Or an easier one, getting dealt aces twice in a row in hold em. Have seen this live twice. about 1 in 40,000????

Should prob just dig out texts and tests 4

jimbling

a147pro wrote:

If you play online long enough you'll see it all. The other night I was watching the missus play a S'n'G when three players took a raised flop. They all got it all in on the flop. Each had a pocket pair and made a set! On the flop!

Got me thinkin about what the odds would be. Anyone any ideas, full maths please so I can see if my knowledge of probability has improved since the leaving.

Some other instances...

A seven card straight flush in hold'em. Saw this online once. I remember reading something saying that in Cool hand Luke the charachter should have copped he was being cheated when his quads lost to a straight flush as the odds of getting the latter in 5 card draw were 1 in 65,000. Obviously they're less in hold em as you've 2 extra cards. But a seven card straight flush, would that be 1in 65,000 X 47 X 46 ????? Or is it just 1 in 52X51X50 etc.???? (or is that for a specific as opposed to any straight flush?)

Or an easier one, getting dealt aces twice in a row in hold em. Have seen this live twice. about 1 in 40,000????

Should prob just dig out texts and tests 4

that exact hand happened to me before. 77 Vs 55 Vs 33 with a 753 flop. I think at least. There was a post about the odds of it at the time... ill try find it for ya.

jimbling

actually, got it slightly wrong... 4s not 3s.
here's the link:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=290696&referrerid=&highlight=

5starpool

I have seen all that live too. I played a hand once where 6/8 people at the table has a pocket pair, 5 seen the flop and the lowest pair won. If you see a huge amount of a particular thing happen, then you will get a huge variety of outcomes including really unlikely ones.

Bad beats happen, as do unlikely things. That is why they are unlikely, not impossible.

Imposter

Playing 10/20 limit holdem I had AA, other guys had QQ, 33 and KJ. Flop AQ3 turn T, river blank. I bet out on the flop and turn and it was capped when it got back to me! So a 600€+ pot and the weakest hand all through until the turn won.

Mellor

Ok so the first one, the odds of three players with pocket pairs each hitting a set,
So lets say the three players have 55, 99 and QQ respectivily.
So how many flops are possible in total. We have 6 cards gone. So 46 left.
46[C]3=15180 {(46x45x44)/(3x2x1)}
And eight of those flops will give each of them a set. {2x2x2=8}
So the chances of it happening are 8/15180. Which is 1 in 1897.5 About .053%


As for the straight flush it depends on the hole cards alot, but say any two cards, on any single deal.
Seven cards to be chosen from 52.
52[C]7=133,784,560
And there are 32 seven card straight flushes possible.
So its 32/133,754,560
Which is 1 in 4,180,767.5
So 4 tabling full 10 seat tables @ 50 hands an hour, you would need to play for 87 days straight before you hit or see one. Makes me feel luckier about seeing one.




And aces twice in a row is 221x221=48841
So 1 in 48841.
I've hit them twice in three hands before. So thats 1 in 16280

a147pro

Mellor wrote:

So 4 tabling full 10 seat tables @ 50 hands an hour, you would need to play for 87 days straight before you hit or see one. Makes me feel luckier about seeing one.

Exceptional Mellor, thank you. 87 misspent days. And I don't even multitable...

Had a look at that other post Jimbling, good christ the maths is outrageous there.

Mellor, to make me feel a little more comfortable can you confirm I'm only losing about a .2% edge against someone who can do that math by not myself being able to? In poker that is. I imagine once you know the rough odds like open ended, gut-shots and flush draws etc you're not missing much

Mellor

As long as you have the standard stuff, pots odds, counting outs, odds of common situations, and the odds offered by bets as a fraction of the pot then your are fine.
I can only think one a few situations were it was anymore complicated han that, and the time i'd need to work it out would be longer than I could take. Well actually If I need it I should ake it. But normally end up beating myself up on the way home when I replay the hand and relised that even thought I was clearly beat, all things considered it was a maths based call.

The other thread is crazy stuff alright. I think some of them over complicated it. The odds I posted only count for three players seeing the flop with PPs. The chances of 3 PPs being dealt 3 handed are over 4000/1

Macspower

got AA twice in a row once in Silks wed tourney. It was in the first round of the table and there were 4 empty seats. On both occassions I was the last player left going into 4 dead stacks. Picked up the blinds both times. Had the two red aces first and then the back ones next........ Uncanny

bohsman

Once folded bottom set in a live cash game in the Fitz, flop of 653, the 3 of us flopped sets, luckily for me Bertie Brennan got the second raise in so it was an easy fold.

5starpool

I didn't think Bertie was that loose to reraise with a set on a straightening board.....

BobSloane

I think Brunson mentioned a few weird ones in Super System. Pocket As flopping quads and getting draw out on for a Royal Flush - and someone else with pocket Js flopping Js full of 4s where the turn and river came 4 4 giving the hand to a villian with an ace.

"theres no such thing as a sure thing in poker son. I once saw a guy in Tennesse lose a pot for half a million dollars with a royal flush"
"thats impossible. what did the other guy have?"
"A smith and wesson"

bohsman

5starpool wrote:

I didn't think Bertie was that loose to reraise with a set on a straightening board.....

He thought about it for ages when he got reraised before realising your man was utg not on the BB, stuck it in then.

ocallagh

Happend 3 weeks ago to me.

TT vs QQ vs 99

QT9 flop.

Q turn.

We all got it in!


There was another one but I might have the details wrong. Brunson flopped top set against two other players. From the action on the flop he knew they both had the other two sets, so when the board paired on 4th street he let it go.

gosplan

Imposter wrote:

Playing 10/20 limit holdem I had AA, other guys had QQ, 33 and KJ. Flop AQ3 turn T, river blank. I bet out on the flop and turn and it was capped when it got back to me! So a 600€+ pot and the weakest hand all through until the turn won.

Heh, probably because you all checked the flop:D

Edit: just actually read all of that now, what the hell was he doing calling?

58o

SE last night. 8d 7d As flop, all the money goes in. I have 9d 6d , opponent has 77. Turn 8.
River 10d