Best young horse that I've seen

Morgans

I cannot remember being more impressed with a young horse than I am with Aran Concerto. I took 25/1+ for what was the Sun Alliance Hurdle on Sunday morning, and he is now shorter. I cannot see how this horse will not be the main Irish hope for this race (barring injury) meaning that he will inevitably start at less than 8/1. I would recommend backing it now you at worst can lay it off later. I havent seen a horse look so much like the real deal in a long long time. Just thought I'd pass that on.

It will take a good horse to beat Clopf as well, but there is a bigger chance for a horse to come of the flat to take him on.

RedPeppers

Totally agree, looks a serious prospect. Will have a dabble on him also. Just hope he stays trouble free

finbarrk

Noel Meade said he is doing things at home that no other horse has done! Thats a fair statement. I wonder would he go in the Supreme?

Morgans

I'd be very surprised if he did. He would run into Clopf in that case, who would be a tough nut to crack over 2m. His next proposed outing is a 2m4f novice at Navan. I think he will follow the Nicanor route to Cheltenham.

Colonel Sanders

Took the 25s myself. Hasn't beaten much but has had any amount in hand in both the races he's won and was running well and may well have beaten a grade 1 winner 1st time out over hurdles. I met Noel Meade in a pub in Dublin a few weeks ago and was chatting to him about this horse. The way he spoke about him was the way I'd speak about a beautiful woman!! The main opposition in march may be from Leading run if he can get his jumping together. The only worry is that maybe one of them will end up in the 3 miler altho he'd no bother running Nicanor and Mr Nosie against each other last year.

Morgans

He is different class to Leading Run. Wouldnt worry about him. The horse that beat him earlier this year Le Toscan is one to keep on the right side of. Catch me is ante post fav at the moment, and should he and AC meet, I'll be having my biggest bet of the year on AC.

Pighead

12-1 with Paddy Powers now. Has all the value gone at this stage?

Morgans

I'm confident that he will be shorter after his next race, and I would price him up at about 8/1 myself at the moment, so the value isnt as great now. 14/1 with Corals and 15/1 on betfair the last time I checked...its a little better if you have acccount there.

Colonel Sanders

Morgans wrote:

He is different class to Leading Run. Wouldnt worry about him. The horse that beat him earlier this year Le Toscan is one to keep on the right side of. Catch me is ante post fav at the moment, and should he and AC meet, I'll be having my biggest bet of the year on AC.

People are forgetting that leading run is a grade 1 bumper winner who beat Footy facts, Clopf and Hairy Molly, the winner of the cheltenham bumper at punchestown last year. Yes the start to his hurdles career has been less than impressive but he was carrying a serious amount of condition first time out but rallied gamely to beat a decent enough yardstick in badgerlaw. Meade ran him too quickly against le toscan, trust me I saw how knackered the horse was after his first run only 10 days previously. Write him off at your peril.

Morgans

That is fair enough Colonel Sanders. I wans't forgetting his bumper form though. However, i dont think there were any superstars in the championship bumpers last season, and I'll be surprised if Hairy Molly proves good enough for a Chelt novice this seasonn. Leading Run is already a 7yo going on 8 and may just have been too strong for younger animals then. The badgerlaw form has been let down badly since, IMO, beaten at Down Royal in a maiden hurdle. I think leading run is too slow for 2m5f at Cheltenham, and will continue to oppose him throughout this seaso, especially given the likeliehood that he will start at tight odds each time. Like Travino last year, he might pick up a decent staying novice (3m would be interesting) somewhere along the line but I think he will be found out this year. He will be interesting as a staying novice chaser where stamina is at a premium next year. of course, I could be proven wrong but I dont think there was any fluke about le toscan's improement past him on his last run.

Colonel Sanders

I agree about the age stat and the fact that he's probably crying out for a proper trip but I can't agree about the le toscan result.

This was 10 days after the horse had run at punchestown 40kgs overweight. I was there that day and the horses looked round beforehand and was basically on his knees afterwards. Badgerlaw, a decent yardstick if unspectacular, was off for his life that day (looked fit as a fiddle before) and was backed accordingly. LR showed great battling qualities to get past him after the last flight. At naas the next time he was sluggish, on and off the bridle, lugging out to his right. Trainer admitted he ran him too soon and jockey reported he ran 'flat'.

Guess we'll find out a bit more if he runs at fairyhouse on saturday

Morgans

I accept that Leading Run didnt run to his best behind Le Toscan at Navan, but Le Toscan finished behind him and Badgerlaw first time out this season, and has gone in again impressively. I know who I'd be supporting when they met. AS you say, we'll wait and see.

Colonel Sanders

Ironicaly enough Le Toscan beat LR's half brother Well Run next time out, however that isn't strong form IMO, as well run has been exposed as a moderate enough horse.

Time will tell, sure isn't racing a game of opinions!!!!

mdwexford

careful folks, i remember sweet wake being hyped up the exact same last year. he was supposedly the only horse in the yard who could get harchibald off the bridle

until this horse beats something of note i would not go taking ridiculously short odds for the festival

Morgans

I for one never liked Sweet Wake but I dont think 25/1 that was available earlier - even 20/1 afer Sunday's race was available - and 14/1 now can be classed as ridiculously short odds.

And of course, when he beats something what you might class as something of note, he certainly wont be a double digit odds. Given that he was unlucky not to beat the Grade 1 winner The railway Man on his hurdling debut, its hard to guess what a horse of note means at this stage.

mdwexford

14/1 is ridiculous odds for a horse who has only won a maiden, end of story

nobody knows if he was going to win or not at naas that day, imo not because i think he'll find zero off the snaffle

something of note at this stage means a horse who has beaten some decent novices not one who won a mickey mouse navan maiden hurdle.
his current price is on reputation and hype not form

Morgans

One of the elements that most impressed me about his first run was the fact that depsite coming to a standstill at the second last, maybe relegating him to about 12th or 15th. And depsite just giving Carberry a lift back to the stables, he was still able to finish fifth.

You've obviously made up your opinion about the horse, and best of lcuk with that. If you want to offer me 14/1 (ridiculous odds), I'll take it off your hands. Do yo have an exchange account.

I'm not basing this opinion on hype, the title of the thread is "The best young horse that I've seen" I've come to this impression about this horse from the way he travels, picks up when asked, and the way he goes about his business. I think he is on his way to proving Meade's opinion correct on this one, not because I believe Meade implicitly, but because of what I have seen on the track. To me he has far more scope than the current favourite for the race Catch Me. (is he a horse of note?)

As it stands at the moment, anyone who has taken a price of 12/1 upwards can lay off and have a free bet. Lets just see what price he will be after his next run. If he wins in the style that I think he can, I'm expecting him to be 6/1.

mdwexford

i havent made up my mind yet my friend, i just have not seen anything... YET to show me hes a potential cheltenham winner. if, in the next few months he turns out to be a top class novice hurdler i will be the first one to congratulate you on spotting him so early and having fancy prices about him.

i do not lay anything above 5/1 on betfair so thats a no go.

at the moment i would prefer catch me, he beat some decent-ish horses lto and should be a better horse on good ground seeing as he is from the flat.

ps, if you backed the horse at 12/1 he is currently 13.5 on betfair,
i dont know about your maths but i fail to see how you can lay off for a free bet

Morgans

one word mdwexford....commission. And i did say 12/1 and upwards.

Also, I'd check out Catch Me's flat form - all of it was on soft ground, like a lot of german breds.

Looking forward to the clash.

Just checked the RP to see if there was anything to support my view - From the quotes

"He's a right good horse and he just gallops all day. - Barry Geraghty; I think he has stepped up a bit form his first run and let's hope he continues that way. He's in the Royal Bond but everything will be geared around next March. If we get him there I would consider the two-miler if the going turned up soft otherwise he'll go for the longer race on the second day. - Edward O'Grady"

"He's not the finished article yet and needs to polish up his jumping, but let's hope he can build on that. I'd love to go there [to Cheltenham] and if the ground is soft I couldn't see why he wouldn't run in the 2m race . He'll go on good ground, although I would say he would prefer soft. - Edward O'Grady"

INteresting all the same

mdwexford

interesting about his flat form being on soft ground in germany, the main german flat horse i remember of course being Well Chief.

the royal bond and drinmore on sunday should give us an idea of how decent the irish novices are this year,
need to give paul nicholls something to think about as with kicks for free and denman leading his novice team hes gonna take some stopping!!!

Colonel Sanders

mdwexford wrote:

careful folks, i remember sweet wake being hyped up the exact same last year. he was supposedly the only horse in the yard who could get harchibald off the bridle

until this horse beats something of note i would not go taking ridiculously short odds for the festival

Fair point, however I don't see how anyone cannot have been impressed with his 2 demolition jobs so far and it is pie in the sky but i feel he would have beaten the railway man and he was backed accordingly on the day. I took 25s after hearing Meade speak glowingly about this horse and while it was a speculative bet it looks ok now. Plus it should be noted that 20s was freely available after his race sunday so its cold currency thats shortened him further, not hype.

Morgans

He would have beaten The Railway Man without coming off the bridle. And for the not finding off the bridle - we will wait and see - Watson Lake - same colours travels kindly but empties quickly. Why I started this thread after his last run was that in between the last two flights., carberry shook the reins and him and immediately moved gear and put 5l between him and possibly very poor challengers. I do ike the way he travelled within himself and was waiting for and repsonsed to the jockeys instructions. Could be made look very foolish, and the price now would make you think twice, but he was very very good value in the immediate aftermath of the race.

Ballyman

mdwexford wrote:

careful folks, i remember sweet wake being hyped up the exact same last year. he was supposedly the only horse in the yard who could get harchibald off the bridle

until this horse beats something of note i would not go taking ridiculously short odds for the festival

Round of applause for that man.

This horse has cost me an absolute fortune on his last three runs (that last run in Cheltenham was chronic, not a drop of petrol left when push comes to shove) and it's all due to the talking up by Carberry and Meade of this supposed super horse. Never again to be backed. Ever.

Same could be said of AC. He will be no price on all his runs in Ireland so is not a backing proposition and won't be off the bridle until he gets to Cheltenham in March so no matter what, not one solitary cent of my money will be on him, regardless of what price he is.

Same thing every year. There's always one talking horse, that inevitably fails to deliver when up against the big boys.

Colonel Sanders

I think sweet wake will win races but is far from top class. He didn't get up the hill in march on decent ground so didn't have a chance in hell on desperate ground 2 weeks ago.

However do agree with the overall sentiment, hype horse of the highest order.

Morgans

I'm not trying to convince people to backing ante post. I know that most ante post bets go south for any number of reasons - the most galling because of injury, or withdrawl due to ground conditions. However, just in case, someone think I am only jumping on a Meade bandwagon here, I have come to the conclusion that AC could develeop into one of the best chasers in years to come, and I really liked the way he did things so far. I think he could be the real deal - I hope so with the price I've got about him.

Why he is different from Sweet Wake? (another german bred who prefers soft by the way (earlier discussion)) Well, he is going for the 2m5f hurdle and not to 2m. It makes a huge difference as generally the classier horses from the flat will go for the shorter race (ounimpohja may not, but i dont think his jumping will stand up to a better race than the one he won at Taunton) Which means that there is a lesser likeliehood of something appearing out of the woodwork two weeks before Cheltenham and arrive at the head of the market.

The old Sun Allaince has been probably the best race for "bankers" - horses that have looked the part all year long, and are able to prove it on the day. There are less surprises in the race. because they are stayers, there are fewer horses that spring back to form for meeting good ground for the first time, as can happen in the Suprme novices.

Horses like Barton, Monseignor, French Holly, Danoli, Istabraq were all bankers and won. Denman, unfortunately for me lost last year, but having got him at an each way price, didnt lose on hte race, especially as I had also backed Nicanor after beating Travino at leop in Feb. (Just lucky that BJK decided to go for the 3m)

Sweet Wake was the best of a poor bunch of 2m novices in ireland last year. And was only favourite because there was nothing convincing up against him. Not really because of the hype - there was money for him, but the opposition - as it looked then wasnt that hot. The horse probably doesnt really stay - best price he was after his first maiden win was 8/1 max and to small amounts. 6/1 generally. there is a difference between that and 20/1 that AC was after winning his maiden.

I'm pretty much convinced (maybe wrongly, we'll find out) that AC will prove himself better than Catch Me, and there is likely to be one or two other horses that devleop over the winter, but I cant see anything but improvement in AC - far more than Catch Me - whose jumping my improve in time, but knows what the racing game is about. I will be disappointed if AC isnt the main hope for Ireland in the old SAH, and simply because of that he will at worst start second favourite for the race.

My biggest fear would be firm going, or deciding to keep him at home until he goes chasing (unlikely with Meade) but at 25/1 (27s on BF) and at 20/1 again after the race, I was willing to take the chance. At 12/1 I'd probably be slower to rush in.

As Johnny giles would say - each horse on its merits - just because the hype about Sweet Wake was proven misplaced - it doenst means automatically that AC will flop. I'm going on what I see, not with what I hear, but it is comforting to know that Meade, who knows what it takes to win the race, thinks so much of the animal.

I've generally been lucky with my ante post punting (maybe more lucky than the standard punting) but I can see why some people dont like it. I do think that you will be waiting a while before a horse like this is a price as big as this.

masterK

Sorry to deviate off topic, I'm still yet to see the race in question so I thought I'd pop along to the ATR site and have a look at it and some other Irish races I need to catch up on, however they are not there. There doesn't seem to be any Irish races up for at least 3 weeks (didn't look any further back). Have ATR stopped arciving Irish Racing?

mdwexford

aran concerto and catch me both entered on sunday at navan for the grade 1 2m4f novice hurdle as well as a few other decent looking novices

should be very interesting, especially if both turn up

The jock

Watch out for a horse trained by Philip Fenton Shirley Casper who won recently,they think great things of it.

scojones

The jock wrote:

Watch out for a horse trained by Philip Fenton Shirley Casper who won recently,they think great things of it.

Running in the 3.35 at Navan on the 17th.

Morgans

Good news for those who took the 25s, the 20s, and even the supposedly ridiculously short odds of 14/1 for Aran Concerto.

Here is the latest view from Oddschecker. Those who want to lay off their bets may do. 11/2 on Betfair.

Oddschecker

HiCloy

A very impressive performance, and looked to have plenty left in the tank. How he'll handle good ground, a faster pace and a big field is another question

Morgans

I agree Hi Cloy and I wouldnt be a backer at 11/2 but it is a question that most have to answer at this stage of the winter. I was especially impressed with the way he jumped today. Comparing it to how he approached hurdles first time up,. its clear that he is learning. The SAH isnt the same type of race as the Supreme Novices, and isnt always the most competitive of the festival.

Tush

The jock wrote:

Watch out for a horse trained by Philip Fenton Shirley Casper who won recently,they think great things of it.

Kept an eye on it,Cheers Jock.;)

masterK

Aran Concerto was definitely impressive today, his action suggested better ground may suit.

The jock

Tush wrote:

Kept an eye on it,Cheers Jock.;)

No bother,I had a nice bet on it.I have another Fenton horse for you all but I wont let you know until a few days before it runs.

The jock

The other fenton horse is Woodbine Willie who will run at Leopardstown.Also watch out for No Toll whenever it runs as the form has worked out on its first run.

Morgans

I was going to raise a couple of earlier quotes in this thread, but I just hope that some readers took the plunge. Recommended at 25/1, now 9/4 on betfair. Get out by laying the odds and have a large free bet running for you, or leave it run, the decision is yours.

00dyel

i got on Aran Concerto at 14-1 for Cheltenham thanks guys

easytiger!

Did Meade make any comment as regards which race he's going for after today?

Morgans

I would have to question Meade as being phenomenally stupid if he were to go the the Supreme novices route with Aran Concerto. I dont think I would hold him, the trainer, in the same regard if he did go for the 2m. Independent of my ante post vouchers.

mdwexford

nice ante post docket now Morgans, best of luck with it.

if you hadnt backed him earlier would you take the 9/4 now though??
id still rather be a layer i think, i have this suspicion he wont come up the hill. (i thought the same about Nicanor last year though)

Morgans

No, and I wouldnt have taken 4/1 before today. But I have 26s and 25/1, and 20/1 so that may be clouding my judgement. What I said, is that at worst he would be the best Irish candidate for the race, which would have made him 8/1 at worst. I wouldnt have recommended backing the horse at 9/4. Not ante post at this stage of the season. I dont think you would want to lay him at 14s or bigger now though...

I dont think he will have any problems with the hill, and if Witchita Lineman goes for the 3m which appears his most likely target, he deserves to be a strong favourite.

and apropos of nothing, B Geraghty once again showed his intellegence by going outside Leading Run at the second last.

goodfela

Meade said afterwards that right from the start of the season he had always been leaning towards the longer race at the Festival, will surely be most "Irish backers" banker for the week at this stage. It would be crazy to run him in the Supreme and there is little or no chance of that now.

Fantastic comments and forecasting Morgans.

fr wishy washy

RE Aran Concerto-on the ATR site Meade says if its soft they'll probably run in the shorter race but I think it will be good to soft and they'll end up in the longer race.

Personally I'd be aiming him at the longer race regardless of the ground.

Morgans

I would stongly advise against backing Aran Concerto for the Supreme Novices because

a) He is more than likely not going to run there, soft ground or not
b) Amaretto Rose will beat him in any case

Colonel Sanders

I was seriously impressed with this horse on sunday, he jumped extremely well and is one of the nicest looking horses I have sen in a long long time. My grip on my 25/1 ante post docket is tightening all the time.

I feel he'll line up in the longer race as his pedigree and everything he's done so far has suggested further than 2 miles. However I'm not the trainer. Whichever race he lines up in he'll go off with a tremendous chance. The novice hurdle division doesn't look anythng special this year.