Pot Odds

MrPillowTalk

Not my strongest point.

What pot odds do I need to call an all in bet if I have 46 on a 6 8 Q board if I am certain that my opponent has AA?

carfax

MrPillowTalk wrote:

Not my strongest point.

What pot odds do I need to call an all in bet if I have 46 on a 6 8 Q board if I am certain that my opponent has AA?

Better than 4/1......

carfax

Do it make the call.

MrPillowTalk

hmm made a pretty bad call so.

dvdfan

MrPillowTalk wrote:

Not my strongest point.

What pot odds do I need to call an all in bet if I have 46 on a 6 8 Q board if I am certain that my opponent has AA?

Am i missing something Why would you want to consider calling

Flushdraw

I reckon at least 5/1 but i wouldnt be makin the call if it was putting my tournie in danger

MrPillowTalk

dvdfan wrote:

Am i missing something Why would you want to consider calling

Eh because I may be getting a good enough price duh

Hectorjelly

Flushdraw wrote:

I reckon at least 5/1 but i wouldnt be makin the call if it was putting my tournie in danger

good for you

Gholimoli

you need 4/1 to break even.
anything more and your making a profite and anything less and your making aloss .
whats all this about calling or not calling then when we know the correct odds!!

PiperT

MrPillowTalk wrote:

Not my strongest point.

What pot odds do I need to call an all in bet if I have 46 on a 6 8 Q board if I am certain that my opponent has AA?

5/1

Flushdraw

Hectorjelly wrote:

good for you

Didnt know you cared

ArmaniJeanss

MrPillowTalk wrote:

Not my strongest point.

What pot odds do I need to call an all in bet if I have 46 on a 6 8 Q board if I am certain that my opponent has AA?

You've 5 outs so you've about 20% chance to hit.
But your opponent has 8 'reverse' outs even if you hit so he's roughly 16% to hit if you hit.
So you need a 20% and an 84% in a double.
20 = 4/1. 84% = .16/1 which is a 4.8/1 double. So anything ~ 5/1+ is good.

valor

Download poker stove

ocallagh

MrPillowTalk wrote:

hmm made a pretty bad call so.

but, the more important thing is - did u hit?

BigCityBanker

If you can see the bigger picture then do not concern yourself with pot odds and the likes - just call everytime and do some dogging.

MrPillowTalk

ocallagh wrote:

but, the more important thing is - did u hit?

Unfortunately not, was a 14k pot as well, called because I was getting 3.5/1 and thought it was about right, fairly basic mistake.

Mellor

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

You've 5 outs so you've about 20% chance to hit.
But your opponent has 8 'reverse' outs even if you hit so he's roughly 16% to hit if you hit.
So you need a 20% and an 84% in a double.
20 = 4/1. 84% = .16/1 which is a 4.8/1 double. So anything ~ 5/1+ is good.

Glad somebody took account for the fact that you can hit an out and still lose.
his 8 reverse outs increase to 11 for the river if you miss. but it should only affect the hand slightly.

RoundTower

everyone is wrong so far, I don't know what the answer is but it depends quite a lot on whether you have a backdoor flush draw.

Sinfonia

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

You've 5 outs so you've about 20% chance to hit.
But your opponent has 8 'reverse' outs even if you hit so he's roughly 16% to hit if you hit.
So you need a 20% and an 84% in a double.
20 = 4/1. 84% = .16/1 which is a 4.8/1 double. So anything ~ 5/1+ is good.

I've never heard of 'reverse' outs, is there anywhere i can read about it? Couldn't find anything

I thought if the percentages were 80-20 on the flop, that was the likelihood of each player having the best hand when all the cards are out?

Ste05

RoundTower wrote:

everyone is wrong so far, I don't know what the answer is but it depends quite a lot on whether you have a backdoor flush draw.

With no backdoor FD it's 4:1,
With a backdoor FD it 3:1...
(assuming one of his A's isn't one of your suit, that would drop it slightly, but only by about 1% so doesn't really make that much difference)

eggie

RoundTower wrote:

everyone is wrong so far, I don't know what the answer is but it depends quite a lot on whether you have a backdoor flush draw.

How do you know everyone is wrong if you dont know the answer?

White Knight

14k pot with 6,4 :eek:

wanna play it out for us? i guess you are trying to get him off his hand preflop?

Hitman Actual

SumGuy wrote:

I've never heard of 'reverse' outs, is there anywhere i can read about it? Couldn't find anything

I thought if the percentages were 80-20 on the flop, that was the likelihood of each player having the best hand when all the cards are out?

AJ is just talking about redraws e.g. you could hit your 4 on the turn for two-pair, but he could hit a Q or an 8 on the river for a higher 2-pair, or an Ace for a set. So you don't really have 5 clean outs. Although if you hit a 6, then only an Ace wins it for him, so I'm not sure if AJ's calculation is quite right. I'm surprised it's changed the odds by as much as 4/1 to 5/1. Anyway, I think redraws are much more relevant in omaha.

I agree that we need to know the suits, but I dont think a back-door flush draw will change the odds significantly (it's 24/1, isn't it, for the BD FD?).

ocallagh

eggie wrote:

How do you know everyone is wrong if you dont know the answer?

Because there was not enough info to correctly determine the odds

funny how a simple pot odds question has the lot of us shouting between 3/1 and 5/1.. that's a big difference.

1 day of learning off pot odds would be very +EV I imagine. EVen just to learn off by heart the 20 most common ones...

ArmaniJeanss

SumGuy wrote:

I've never heard of 'reverse' outs, is there anywhere i can read about it? Couldn't find anything

I thought if the percentages were 80-20 on the flop, that was the likelihood of each player having the best hand when all the cards are out?

The 20% is roughly the odds of Pillow hitting an out.
However if he hits a 4 then his opponent can hit an 8,Q or A to beat him (8 outs) and if Pillow hits a 6 then opponent can hit an A for a set to beat Pillows 2 pair. (so 2 outs in this case). Hence his opponent has 'reverse outs'.

Pillow also has a chance of runner runner 5,7 for a straight, which I left out, and which RndTower might have been referring to, as well as a possible unknown flush draw.

P.S. Lenny is correct that I originally forgot that a 6 would only leave the 2 remaining Aces as outs.

MrPillowTalk

Im bb he is button very aggresive good player havent played a whole lot with him.

He makes it 200 to play, his uniform raise is usually 140 to open so I think that this bet signals a mid pp or AJ AT etc. SB calls as do I.

flop 6s 8h Qh

I lead for 500
He raises to 1500, he can do this with a mid pp and usually will due to some previous pots played out between us.
I reraise to 3500, he goes all in for 3350 more.

Now I know he has AA, KK and Ive gotten myself in a terrible spot but I call thinking I am getting near the odds.

I have the 6h for a back door draw but I cant honestly remember if he had Ah or not.

Edit: we are 4 handed.

ArmaniJeanss

I've cheated and used an online calc.

Its says MrPillowTalk wins 23.93% if hes not up against Ah, 19.09% if he is.
So 4/1 is not good enough to call, but 4.2/1+ would give you the edge.

Poor out of me, and a few others, not to be better at this sort of thing.


Edit. Actually 4/1 (slightly less even) would be fine. I give up.

Ste05

lenny_leonard wrote:

I'm surprised it's changed the odds by as much as 4/1 to 5/1. Anyway, I think redraws are much more relevant in omaha.

I agree that we need to know the suits, but I dont think a back-door flush draw will change the odds significantly (it's 24/1, isn't it, for the BD FD?).

It changes it from 4:1 (or 80:20) to 3:1 (or 75:25) And that includes all re-draws, etc. it's a fairly straight forward PokerStove equity calculation...

EDIT: When I was talking about backdoor flush draws, I talking about the flop being a rainbow, it just made the whole calc easier...

MrPillowTalk

I made a number of very large errors in this hand Im not even sure which was the worst.

ocallagh

MrPillowTalk wrote:

I made a number of very large errors in this hand Im not even sure which was the worst.

lol, the call was probably the best bit!!!:D

MrPillowTalk

ocallagh wrote:

lol, the call was probably the best bit!!!:D

I allow myself one meltdown hand a week, Im sure its good for my image i can just imagine all the notes being taken

"lagtard takes bottom pair no draw to the grave for 7k"

dvdfan

MrPillowTalk wrote:

Im bb he is button very aggresive good player havent played a whole lot with him.

He makes it 200 to play, his uniform raise is usually 140 to open so I think that this bet signals a mid pp or AJ AT etc. SB calls as do I.

flop 6s 8h Qh

I lead for 500
He raises to 1500, he can do this with a mid pp and usually will due to some previous pots played out between us.
I reraise to 3500, he goes all in for 3350 more.

Now I know he has AA, KK and Ive gotten myself in a terrible spot but I call thinking I am getting near the odds.

I have the 6h for a back door draw but I cant honestly remember if he had Ah or not.

Edit: we are 4 handed.

Genuinely not taking the piss just wondering everyones thinking, but in this situation i would find it very hard to call. Say even if you had the odds i know this should be enough to call full stop but there are scenario's we all play that we wont call even if we have the odds for example if were the small blind with 23o,72o etc unless someone raises we have the odds to call.

If he has AA and you hit your 4, the Q,8 or Ace beats you and if you hit the 6 your fairly safe as he has the Ace to fall back on so i would be very reluctant to call. Is everyone of the opinion you should be calling here or is it an auto call once you have the odds. Sorry for taking the thread off topic, i know you just wanted to know wheter you had the odds to call or not but im curious to how most people would play this and the fact that nobody else questioned this probably means i have alot to learn.:)

Hectorjelly

dvdfan wrote:

Say even if you had the odds i know this should be enough to call full stop but there are scenario's we all play that we wont call even if we have the odds for example if were the small blind with 23o,72o etc unless someone raises we have the odds to call.

These situations have nothing in common with each other. An all in bet in a heads up pot is just a maths problem, does your hand reckon to have a big enough equity in the pot for the amount you have to call. Preflop from the sb pot odds dont matter a damn, its whether its going to be profitable or not to play the hand from that position.