colm o gorman gets 1% in TG4 poll in wexford

constitutionus

cant say im surprised, i like the guy and he did great work for 1in4 but he completely baffled me by joining the PDs . particularly when he started going on about their social policies. social issues are hardly the first thing people think of when the think PD so this result must be a crushing defeat for the party not to mention boding ill for their prospects in the election. o gorman was pretty much the highest profile newbie they had.

personally IMO i think people blame the PDs for their woes in terms of privatisation and increases in stealth taxes. weather its warranted or not i think they'll be decimated at the next election. their mantra last time was "dont let the bastards get an overall majority" and resulted in a disproportionate result for them in terms of seats the party gained. with no chance of an overall FF majority insight i reckon all those extra seats will go, and the definete possibilty macdowel and harney could lose their seats (macdowel only has a 50/50 success rate at the polls and harneys standing in clondalkin now not lucan, hardly a middle class stronghold. particularly if you look at the councill elections, a high turn out could see her go) 07 could be disastrous for them.

so what do you reckon?

J.S. Pill

A particularly baffling choice for Wexford, I hail from there Originally and PD country it is not

The_Minister

In fairness, the PDs have fairly good social policies. They aren't just about economics. Thats why they get so many transfers from Labour.

EDIT: Also, I was talkiing to some Wexfordians the other day. They all seemed to think that the fact that he is gay was what will sink him.

constitutionus

you know it wasnt until i heard these results that the fact he's gay even came up. i hadnt a clue that he was and i reckon your right the more conservative section of the population might not vote for him because of that. still its the fact he's standing as a PD that'd turn me off, not his sexuality. i cant help wondering what his result wouldve been if he stood for another party, or as an independant

lostexpectation

link to the poll? can't find it on tg4 site

constitutionus

was on the week in politics last night, thats where i saw it anyway. so ya might find it on the RTE.ie site

*EDIT* yup, found it just go to the RTE.ie site and halfway down the mainpage on the left hand side click on the "news & current affairs" section with "fast access" on it and click week in politics. tis the first one that comes up sorry i cant do links but hope this helps

ArthurDent

constitutionus wrote:

harneys standing in clondalkin now not lucan, hardly a middle class stronghold. particularly if you look at the councill elections, a high turn out could see her go) 07 could be disastrous for them.

so what do you reckon?

Clondalkin and Lucan still in the same Dub mid-west constituency as far as I know, but local mumblings say she will find it hard to get reelected, especially without possibility of Taniste role

spanner

Wexford is a conservative Constituency with very strong FF and FG grassroots it would be very difficult for him to make much inroads this time around. Been from north Wexford I have considered voting for him but I dont know what he stands for and he seems to be joining the PDs as a marriage of Convenience just to get into power. If he had joined Labour I would probably given him a preference as I do not like the PD party. I think he would make a good politican.

Dave!

I've heard this fella on Newstalk a few times and I quite like him.

J.S. Pill

The_Minister wrote:

In fairness, the PDs have fairly good social policies. They aren't just about economics. Thats why they get so many transfers from Labour.

How many transfers are we talking about!??

The_Minister wrote:

EDIT: Also, I was talkiing to some Wexfordians the other day. They all seemed to think that the fact that he is gay was what will sink him.

Oh yes, a gay bar wouldn't last 5 minutes in Wexford town

The_Minister

J.S. Pill wrote:

How many transfers are we talking about!??

An incredible number. I study politics, and we were given these figures to look at. In one constituency, when a Labour candidate was eliminated, the majority of votes passed to a PD. The numbers aren't high, only a few thousand, but they are high percentage of votes recieved (I've noticed that Labour candidates either do really well or suck the barrell)

J.S. Pill wrote:

Oh yes, a gay bar wouldn't last 5 minutes in Wexford town

I mainly would be in Gorey or Courtown, if ever I'm in Wexford, so I honestly don't know if you are being serious or sarcastic (ie. For all I know there could be 3)

jd

The_Minister wrote:

In fairness, the PDs have fairly good social policies. They aren't just about economics. Thats why they get so many transfers from Labour.

EDIT: Also, I was talkiing to some Wexfordians the other day. They all seemed to think that the fact that he is gay was what will sink him.

Really? Malcolm Byrne got a lot of public support when The Echo outed him. It is possible that he might yet end up on the Fianna Fail ticket (Lisa Simpson-Macdonald just had a baby).
And there are persistant rumours that Wexford already has a gay TD.
jd

Het-Field

Ignore the poll.

I can hear it now.

"With 100% of First Preference Votes, Colm O Gorman Progressive Democrats has reached the quota, and I hereby deem Colm O Gorman elected to Dail Eireann"

spanner

jd wrote:

Really? Malcolm Byrne got a lot of public support when The Echo outed him. It is possible that he might yet end up on the Fianna Fail ticket
jd

he hasnt a chance of getting on the ticket here is wexford with FF, which is a shame he really has done some great things in the Gorey area like not hilighting the showgrounds been zoned for development. I think he should switch if they dont put him on

J.S. Pill

The_Minister wrote:

An incredible number. I study politics, and we were given these figures to look at. In one constituency, when a Labour candidate was eliminated, the majority of votes passed to a PD. The numbers aren't high, only a few thousand, but they are high percentage of votes recieved (I've noticed that Labour candidates either do really well or suck the barrell)

Very interesting. I'm only speculating here, but Labour and the PDs have primarily middle class support bases so could that be the main reason why the PDs received so many transfers? I'd really like to have a look at any material you might have on this.

The_Minister wrote:

I mainly would be in Gorey or Courtown, if ever I'm in Wexford, so I honestly don't know if you are being serious or sarcastic (ie. For all I know there could be 3)

I'm deadly serious! But I am only speaking for Wexford town. A while back some guys tried to organise a gay night at a pub in the town. They announced this gay night in the Local paper so when it was closing time the scumbags were outside waiting. I don't have a link to this I'm afraid, out local rag has an almost non existent online archive.

J.S. Pill

jd wrote:

.
And there are persistant rumours that Wexford already has a gay TD.
jd

Oh yes! I almost forgot about that. His family background is conspicuously absent from his Labour.ie biography:rolleyes: . or maybe he's just a swinging bachelor enjoying the crazy TD lifestyle

shoegirl

1. He's standing for the PDs
2. As far as I recall he did an interview for GCN a while back and did come out publicly.

Having said that I hardly think that Wexford, which is fairly deprived compared to most of Leinster will have a big PD vote, and there are a lot of knuckle-draggers outside Dublin who will never, ever vote for a gay man out of a lack of empathy for, and fear of, gay men.

O Gorman would probably do well in Dublin, but not a hope in Ferns.
People living in middle class Dublin tend to forget the massive gulf between them and rural Ireland, not to mention working class Ireland.

mountainyman

Wexford isn't Homphobic.

There are 'rumours' about one well established TD and there is an 'out' gay FF councillor.
Is O'Gorman from Wexford given his profile he might be a decent shot for the PDs especially given his compassionate image and the strong labour PD transfer trend..

MM

ronbyrne2005

mountainyman wrote:

Wexford isn't Homphobic. Howlin is a TD and there is an 'out' gay FF councillor.
Is O'Gorman from there.

MM

Em, i don't think you can say that about Howlin.

mountainyman

ronbyrne Post edited

wow sierra

I'm from the rural west, and lived in Dublin city for years. I dont know where people get their ideas about what is/isn't accepted in rural Ireland these days. Being gay would not be an issue - except from the point of view of not having a wife and in laws to help with canvassing. I think O'Gormans only chance would be independent, or maybe Labour - the PDs are all wrong for him.

jd

wow sierra wrote:

, or maybe Labour - the PDs are all wrong for him.

Howlin won't countenance a running mate in Wexford. This is bad news for the Labour Party. Wexford is one of the few rural constituencies where Labour could ever gain 2 out 5 seats. North Wexford is becoming more urbanised, and it is possible that the constituency eventually becomes two 3 seaters. Labour may regret not being more ambitious.

wexfordman

spanner wrote:

Wexford is a conservative Constituency with very strong FF and FG grassroots it would be very difficult for him to make much inroads this time around. Been from north Wexford I have considered voting for him but I dont know what he stands for and he seems to be joining the PDs as a marriage of Convenience just to get into power. If he had joined Labour I would probably given him a preference as I do not like the PD party. I think he would make a good politican.

Spanner,

I have heard a number of people say that he is in this just to get in to power, and to be honest I think that is very unfair. The one question anyone who beleives this, is that if his aim was just to get in to power, why did he choose one of the most difficult parties that he could in order to do this, and why the particular constituency, when he had a number of choices as to which party, and what constituency ?

He could have chosen labour or fg for example, which would have been a far easier option for him. He could also have chosen a different constituency that would be more liberal etc, but he did not, and this is what I think people should consider when they feel that he is just looking to get into power. It is unfair, to criticise him for wanting to go into politics, look at what he has done for this country over the last few short years, when he is not even a td. Imagine the potential if he was a td ?

Whatever your feeling for the PD's etc, I think he deserves respect from the point of view that he has deliberatly not chosen the easy path to do what he wants to do, and I personally would put a lot of trust in him for this.

Wexfordman

constitutionus

if he joined other parties colm wouldnt get a ministery, simple as that. i reckon he was going for the tom parlon route of politics. the PDs isnt exactly where you think farmers should vote yet thats the party tom joined and look at him now. the big mistake was thinking the PDs will return to power next year. they wont, they simply dont have the numbers and wont get them either. unless theres a radical shift in policy the next gov will be FF and either sinn fein/the greens or possibly a rabitless labour. neither this gov or the opposition have the numbers to return so its got to be one of the above, hell i wouldnt rule out enda joining bertie either. after all FGs figures cant get any worse.

o gorman hopped on the wrong pony. and i doubt he had much choice on the constituancy either, that sort of thing is ordered from above so id blame mickey d for his woes in wexford. its a pity, hes a good man but theres no hope for him getting elected on a PD ticket. if i was him i'd be looking elsewhere

The_Minister

He actually looked at Labour first, and decided that they weren't really that serious about the whole gay rights/liberalism thingy. Basically they seem to talk alot, and say the right things, but he didn't feel that they really cared.


Secondly, I don't think that FF will go into SF. It just doesn't benefit them.

Rock Climber

Oh to my mind O' Gorman know's that he wont get in-he probably knows that he'll do well to save his deposit.

However,he'll get a nice Seanad seat via the Taoiseachs nominations after the next election-assuming the current lot are returned which they probably will be.

MontgomeryClift

The_Minister wrote:

He actually looked at Labour first, and decided that they weren't really that serious about the whole gay rights/liberalism thingy.

It seems Colm wants to believe he's the only gay in the village.

Jackie laughlin

If he decided that Labour weren't serious about liberal issues, he must have lost his marbles completely. Labour has been about nothing else for too many years to the neglect of socialism. Yes, of course I'll vote Labour. It remains the only option for a socialist.

constitutionus

Jackie laughlin wrote:

If he decided that Labour weren't serious about liberal issues, he must have lost his marbles completely. Labour has been about nothing else for too many years to the neglect of socialism. Yes, of course I'll vote Labour. It remains the only option for a socialist.

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha, o god havent laughed that hard in ages. labour as socialists, thats a good one. ask any one paying bin charges thanks to dermott lacey how socialist they feel labour is!

Jackie laughlin

Was that a contribution to the discussion? I pay bin charges. I don't approve of the drift to the pay per item, neo-liberal approach to public services. Bin charges at least relate to the level of use. I take it you failed to notice that I was criticising the Labour Party.