STT In The Money Decisions

dvdfan

Came across a scenario tonight,

Playing a $10 STT, 3 Left,

stacks approx:

480 Player 1
12,000 Player 2
2,200 Me

Blinds are 200/400

Payout Structure
1st: $45
2nd: $27
3rd: $18

Im already in the money, the large stack is raising every hand all in for the last umpteen hands because me and the other 2 shortstacks were shortstacked and on the bubble so he was getting away with enough times to be profitable. The bubbles just been burst and hes up to his old trick, all in and im the big blind 400 invested and 2200 left. Im dealt POCKET 5's.

My first reaction is all in because the blinds will eat me up soon, the other voice in my head says the next blind forces the small stack all in with the big stack. The good voice in my head said if i double up im a threat to the big stack and the difference between 1st and 2nd is worth the chance. Whats the correct play here:

I went all in and hit trips to be beaten by Q10 Straight but i feel i made the correct call. Whats other peoples opinions.

ArmaniJeanss

I havn't explored the maths of it, but I'd call this as well.

The prize for 2nd in an STT is so small, its $9 (net) in this case, that its wothwhile to go after the first place instead of $27 (net).

If it was the bubble and there were 2 crippled players then it'd be different, because the big prizes in STTs are 3rd and 1st.

Legend_DIT

I think you're more often than not losing $9 from the almost guaranteed $27 than you are winning the extra $18 with this call...

So I'd fold here, and hope super shortie loses next hand...

Hitman Actual

I think it's close. Your fives are about a 60/40 favourite here, so 40% of the time you get $18, and the other 60% of the time you increase your 'share' of the prize pool by a decent margin. If you fold, then the other two players will be in a 50/50 situation next hand, so 50% of the time you get $27+, and the other 50% of the time your 'share' worsens slightly. There's not much in it at all, I reckon, unless someone does the maths to prove me totally wrong.

dingle

According to pokerstove you're at most a 54/46 favourite here against any two overcards. in my opinion you need to guarantee your second place before taking on coinflips with the big stack. Even if you do win it you are still substantially behind and are still likely to come second.

Guarantee your $16 profit first as it's a lot better than only winning $7, then start chasing the first prize

ianmc38

I think folding now has a slightly better expectation than calling.

Hitman Actual

Okay, had a look at this using ICM. Folding is better than calling, if I haven't bollixed it up:

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Call now with 55:

Stacks if we win and related $EV from ICM
Shorty: T480 : $19.50
Biggy: T9800 : $38.30
You: T5000 : $32.20

If we lose we're out and win $18.00

Going with dingles 54/46 odds for 55 v overs:

$EV_callnow = (0.54 * $32.20) + (0.46 * $18) = $25.67

Going with my 60/40 odds, which is reasonable if we think Biggy is pushing random:

$EV_callnow = (0.6 * $32.20) + (0.4 * 18) = $26.52

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Fold and wait for next hand. Assumes that shorty is all-in with a random hand against a random hand (again this is reasonable):

Stacks and related ICM $EV if shorty wins:
Shorty: T1160 : $22.60
Biggy: T11920 : $40.80
You: T2200 : $26.60

If shorty loses, our new 'share' of the prize pool is:
Biggy: T13080 : $42.40
You: T2200 : $29.60

The splits for these are 50/50, as it's random hand against random hand:

EV_wait = (0.5 * $26.60) + (0.5 * $29.60) = $28.10

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http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html