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Do not try this at home...

  • 22-10-2006 1:19pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭


    It's a dreaded 'loss chaser' system.

    I have never had the bank nor the bottle to try and chase losses with real money, but I'm going to trial a system here using Tony McCoy races, just to satisfy my curiosity.

    Rules:

    The Aim is to make around €10 profit per race backing horses that Tony McCoy rides.

    So if a horse is 5/1, I will need to stake €2 on it. If it wins, the money gets 'banked'

    If however, the horse loses, I will need to make €12 in the next race (the €10 sought after, and the €2 lost)

    Each time I get a winner, the money will be banked, and the process starts over.


    I'm not sure how long I'll keep this going for. Due to time commitments, I wont get to back every horse he rides, but I'll post whenever I can, and pick up where I left off.

    All prices are betfair.


«1345

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    1st Selection:

    2:50 Aintree
    Montevideo
    Price: 5.5
    Stake: €2.22


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 323 ✭✭gamb1or


    a similar system with john egan horses could be profitable

    this season, if you put 1 euro on every horse he rode, you would be up 150 euro!

    don't kno if its more or less than that, since i checked it a couple of weeks ago


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,225 ✭✭✭wba88


    gud idea would be interested to see how this goes for you.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    wbailey wrote:
    1st Selection:

    2:50 Aintree
    Montevideo
    Price: 5.5
    Stake: €2.22

    Montevideo loses.

    Stats:

    Total profit banked to date: € 0
    Number of bets:1
    Winning bets:0
    Strike Rate: 0%
    Highest Stake to date: €2.22
    Longest Losing run: 1 loser
    Return required on next bet: €12.22


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    2nd Selection:

    (Looking to win €10 profit and regain the €2.22 already lost)

    4:25 Aintree
    Launde
    Price: 3.65
    Stake: €4.61


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    wbailey wrote:
    2nd Selection:

    (Looking to win €10 profit and regain the €2.22 already lost)

    4:25 Aintree
    Launde
    Price: 3.65
    Stake: €4.61

    Launde wins, so all stakes are recovered, and €10 gets banked.

    Stats:

    Total profit banked to date: € 10
    Number of bets:2
    Winning bets:1
    Strike Rate: 50%
    Highest Stake to date: €4.61
    Longest Losing run: 1 loser
    Return required on next bet: €10.00


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    3rd Selection (looking to win €10 - No losses need to be recovered)

    2:45 Cheltenham
    Backstage
    Price: 9
    Stake: €1.25


    Im opposing an odds on shot here, but a system is a system :eek:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 323 ✭✭gamb1or


    remember the last time mccoy was up against a ruby walsh odds on horse?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    gamb1or wrote:
    remember the last time mccoy was up against a ruby walsh odds on horse?

    ha ha. Good point gamb1or!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    3rd Selection (looking to win €10 - No losses need to be recovered)

    2:45 Cheltenham
    Backstage
    Price: 9
    Stake: €1.25

    McCoy does it again :)


    Backstage wins.



    Stats:

    Total profit banked to date: € 20
    Number of bets:3
    Winning bets:2
    Strike Rate: 66.66%
    Highest Stake to date: €4.61
    Longest Losing run: 1 loser

    Return required on next bet: €10.00


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 323 ✭✭gamb1or


    won by 16 lengths as well, about the same margin kanpai won by

    gotta love AP

    hopefully a certain other williams horse does the business today


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    Selection number 4. (Looking to win €10 - no losses need to be recovered)

    3:20 Cheltenham
    Kilty Storm
    Price: 8
    Stake: €1.43
    Return if selecton wins: €10.01


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    wbailey wrote:
    Selection number 4. (Looking to win €10 - no losses need to be recovered)

    3:20 Cheltenham
    Kilty Storm
    Price: 8
    Stake: €1.43
    Return if selecton wins: €10.01

    Kilty Storm loses.


    Stats:

    Total profit banked to date: € 20
    Number of bets:4
    Winning bets:2
    Strike Rate: 50%
    Highest Stake to date: €4.61
    Longest Losing run: 1 loser

    Return required on next bet: €11.43



    Selection number 5. (Looking to win €10 - and recover the €1.43 already lost )

    3:55 Cheltenham
    Freeze the Flame
    Price: 1.73
    Stake: €15.44
    Return if selecton wins: €11.43


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    Selection number 5. (Looking to win €10 - and recover the €1.43 already lost )

    3:55 Cheltenham
    Freeze the Flame
    Price: 1.73
    Stake: €15.44
    Return if selecton wins: €11.43

    Freze the flame wins, so €10 gets banked, and all losses are recovered.

    Stats:

    Total profit banked to date: € 30
    Number of bets:5
    Winning bets:3
    Strike Rate: 60%
    Highest Stake to date: €15.44
    Longest Losing run: 1 loser

    Return required on next bet: €10.00



    6th Selection (looking to win €10 - No losses need to be recovered)

    4:30 Cheltenham
    Butlers Cabin
    Price: 3.8
    Stake: €3.57
    Return if selecton wins: €10


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    6th Selection (looking to win €10 - No losses need to be recovered)

    4:30 Cheltenham
    Butlers Cabin
    Price: 3.8
    Stake: €3.57
    Return if selecton wins: €10


    Butlers Cabin wins, so €10 gets banked.

    Thats all for today :)


    Stats:

    Total profit banked to date: € 40
    Number of bets:6
    Winning bets:4
    Strike Rate: 66%
    Highest Stake to date: €15.44
    Longest Losing run: 1 loser

    Return required on next bet: €10.00


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭scojones


    Nice one. :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,184 ✭✭✭✭Pighead


    Impressive start alright. Long may it continue.
    You may have to change the name of this system to "Do try this at home"


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,300 ✭✭✭CiaranC


    I love these crazy systems lol


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,225 ✭✭✭wba88


    u legend its working so well, now for a min imagine if u changed banking a tenner every time to €100, risky but tempting hey


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    wba88 wrote:
    u legend its working so well, now for a min imagine if u changed banking a tenner every time to €100, risky but tempting hey


    Ha Ha yeah, would look more impressive alright.

    I suppose I wanted to see how long it is viable with modest stakes that the average punter would use.

    While I am to make a tenner on a race, it is different to most loss chaser systems in that if a horse loses, I dont try to make twenty in the next race. I still only try to make a tenner and recoup the stake. After I get a winner, the tenner gets banked, the stakes are intact, and it is back to the start again. So I guess its really a combination of the 'loss chaser' and the 'stop at a winner' style systems.

    If one were to do it in real life, I suppose you could set triggers, at which point the stakes are increased. For example: Once €100 is 'banked' the aim would be to make €12 on each race. Then, when €200 is banked, the aim would be to make €14 on a race and so on.

    It will be interesting to see what happens when he hits a good few losers in a row though :)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    7th Selection (looking to win €10 - No losses need to be recovered)

    4:30 Cheltenham
    Go Free
    Price: 14.5
    Stake: €0.74
    Return if selecton wins: €9.99


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    7th Selection (looking to win €10 - No losses need to be recovered)

    4:30 Cheltenham
    Go Free
    Price: 14.5
    Stake: €0.74
    Return if selecton wins: €9.99

    Go Free loses.


    Stats:

    Total profit banked to date: € 40
    Number of bets:7
    Winning bets:4
    Strike Rate: 57.14%
    Highest Stake to date: €15.44
    Longest Losing run: 1 loser

    Return required on next bet: €10.74



    8th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recoup the 74 cent lost)

    5:05 Cheltenham
    Steppes of Gold
    Price: 13
    Stake: €0.90
    Return if selecton wins: €10.80


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 323 ✭✭gamb1or


    on stepps of gold e/w meself, hopefully mccoys trend of embarassing odds on ruby horses continues


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    8th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recoup the 74 cent lost)

    5:05 Cheltenham
    Steppes of Gold
    Price: 13
    Stake: €0.90
    Return if selecton wins: €10.80

    Steppes of Gold loses

    Stats:

    Total profit banked to date: € 40
    Number of bets:8
    Winning bets:4
    Strike Rate: 50%
    Highest Stake to date: €15.44
    Longest Losing run: 2 losers

    Return required on next bet: €11.54



    9th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recoup the €1.54 cent lost so far)

    5:40 Cheltenham
    High Calibire
    Price: 9.8
    Stake: €1.32
    Return if selecton wins: €11.62


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,416 ✭✭✭✭Collie D


    Decent enough strike rate here. Bit of an AP fan myself but don't have the time to follow a system like that. Good luck anyway


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    9th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recoup the €1.54 cent lost so far)

    5:40 Cheltenham
    High Calibire
    Price: 9.8
    Stake: €1.32
    Return if selecton wins: €11.62


    High Calibire loses.

    Stats:

    Total profit banked to date: € 40
    Number of bets:9
    Winning bets:4
    Strike Rate: 44.44%
    Highest Stake to date: €15.44
    Longest Losing run: 3 losers

    Return required on next bet: €12.86


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    Missed a winner earlier due to connection problems:mad:

    Anyway, on with the show...


    10th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recoup the €2.86 cent lost so far)

    3:00 Stratford
    Shingle Street
    Price: 3.8
    Stake: €4.60
    Return if selecton wins: €12.88


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    3:00 Stratford
    Shingle Street
    Price: 3.8
    Stake: €4.60
    Return if selecton wins: €12.88

    Shingle Street wins after yet another great ride from McCoy.

    €10 gets banked, and all stakes are recovered


    Stats:

    Total profit banked to date: € 50
    Number of bets:10
    Winning bets:5
    Strike Rate: 50%
    Highest Stake to date: €15.44
    Longest Losing run: 3 losers

    Return required on next bet: €10.00


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    11th Selection (Looking to win €10, no losses to recover)

    4:00 Stratford
    Oenologue
    Price: 2.58
    Stake: €6.33
    Profit if selecton wins: €10.00


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    10th Selection (Looking to win €10, no losses to recover)

    4:00 Stratford
    Oenologue
    Price: 2.58
    Stake: €6.33
    Profit if selecton wins: €10.00

    Oenologue loses.



    Stats:

    Total profit banked to date: € 50
    Number of bets:11
    Winning bets:5
    Strike Rate: 45.45%
    Highest Stake to date: €15.44
    Longest Losing run: 3 losers

    Return required on next bet: €16.33

    ==============================


    12th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recover the €6.33 lost)

    4:30 Stratford
    Johnstons Swallow
    Price: 6
    Stake: €3.27


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    12th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recover the €6.33 lost)

    4:30 Stratford
    Johnstons Swallow
    Price: 6
    Stake: €3.27

    Johnstons Swallow loses.

    Stats:

    Total profit banked to date: € 50
    Number of bets:12
    Winning bets:5
    Strike Rate: 41.66%
    Highest Stake to date: €15.44
    Longest Losing run: 3 losers

    Return required on next bet: €19.60

    =======================================

    13th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recover the €9.60 lost)

    5:00 Stratford
    Once a Brownie
    Price: 1.56
    Stake: €35.00 (biggest stake yet!!)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    13th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recover the €9.60 lost)

    5:00 Stratford
    Once a Brownie
    Price: 1.56
    Stake: €35.00 (biggest stake yet!!)


    The odds on shot gets beaten.

    Thats all for today.

    Sould get interesting from here, as Ill be chasing €35 quid, and looking to win ten.


    Stats:

    Total profit banked to date: € 50
    Number of bets:13
    Winning bets:5
    Strike Rate: 38.46%
    Highest Stake to date: €35.00
    Longest Losing run: 3 losers

    Return required on next bet: €45.00


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,225 ✭✭✭wba88


    yep now it gets interesting


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,416 ✭✭✭✭Collie D


    wbailey wrote:
    The odds on shot gets beaten.

    Thats all for today.

    Sould get interesting from here, as Ill be chasing €35 quid, and looking to win ten.


    Stats:

    Total profit banked to date: € 50
    Number of bets:13
    Winning bets:5
    Strike Rate: 38.46%
    Highest Stake to date: €35.00
    Longest Losing run: 3 losers

    Return required on next bet: €45.00

    Without wishing you any bad luck, this is what I've been waiting for. Know it doesn't sound nice but hope you get what I'm at ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    Collie D wrote:
    Without wishing you any bad luck, this is what I've been waiting for. Know it doesn't sound nice but hope you get what I'm at ;)

    Ha Ha, I know what you mean Collie. It will be interesting to see how high the stakes have to go before he gets a winner.

    ==================================

    I wont be around much today, so this will probably be the only bet:

    14th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recover the €35.00 lost)

    1:20 Weth.
    Alright Now MLad
    Price: 2.3
    Stake: €34.70


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    Alright Now Mlad wins, so a tenner gets banked, and all stakes are recovered.

    I wont be around much later, so thats all for today.

    Stats

    Total profit banked to date: € 60
    Number of bets:14
    Winning bets:6
    Strike Rate: 42.85%
    Highest Stake to date: €35.00
    Longest Losing run: 3 losers

    Return required on next bet: €10.00


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,588 ✭✭✭Bluetonic


    This (re: Mccoy) gave me a bit of a laugh from a Paddy Power mail shot, WBAILEY I hope you don't mind me adding it to your thread.
    Paddy Power don't do sensationalist tabloid journalism but if we did, it would probably go something like this:

    Tony McCoy’s marriage is in TROUBLE after a MATTER OF WEEKS following the Champion Jockey's declaration that he is IN LOVE WITH ANOTHER. And Paddy Power can now reveal the shocking truth behind the bust up, including confirmation that McCoy:

    - met up with his new love for FIVE ACTION PACKED ROMPS, each of which left 'AP' satisfied and thirsty for more!

    - has used a WHIP to drive his new love into a frenzy of sweaty glory!

    - plans to take the audacious step of RIDING his new love IN PUBLIC this Saturday - and in the process have their ANTICS BROADCAST TO MILLIONS!

    - hopes to work thousands of people into a TREMENDOUS CLIMAX with another dazzling display of his prowess 'in the saddle'!
    TURN TO PAGES 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 TO SEE PICTURES OF TITS AND ASS!!

    OK, we've got that out of our system.

    All of this is a roundabout way of telling you that Tony McCoy “loves” Black Jack Ketchum. He said so himself, and the level of affection that McCoy holds for this horse marks him out as something special - particularly when coupled with the fact that he keeps winning races in style. The pair will be re-united for the first time this season at Wetherby on Saturday, for an absolutely mouthwatering clash with World Hurdle winner, My Way De Solzen.

    On a day of top quality racing, it’s hard to know which single race to big up. Soon after the excitement of the Black Jack Ketchum/My Way De Solzen showdown, the Charlie Hall Chase goes off. This is a high class early season test of the Gold Cup hopefuls and should the winner catch the eye, you can be sure to see them towards the top of the Ante Post market for Cheltenham’s biggest prize.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    15th Selection (Looking to win €10, no losses need to be recovered)

    2:20 Wetherby
    Hautclan
    Price: 7
    Stake: €1.67


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    15th Selection (Looking to win €10, no losses need to be recovered)

    2:20 Wetherby
    Hautclan
    Price: 7
    Stake: €1.67

    Hautclan loses.

    Stats

    Total profit banked to date: € 60
    Number of bets:15
    Winning bets:6
    Strike Rate: 40%
    Highest Stake to date: €35.00
    Longest Losing run: 3 losers

    Return required on next bet: €11.67


    ===================================

    16th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recover €1.67 lost)

    4:00 Wetherby
    Osako D'airy
    Price: 2.94
    Stake: €6.02


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    16th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recover €1.67 lost)

    4:00 Wetherby
    Osako D'airy
    Price: 2.94
    Stake: €6.02

    Osako D'airy loses.

    Stats

    Total profit banked to date: € 60
    Number of bets:16
    Winning bets:6
    Strike Rate: 37.5%
    Highest Stake to date: €35.00
    Longest Losing run: 3 losers

    Return required on next bet: €17.69


    ==========================

    17th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recover €7.69 lost)

    4:35 Wetherby
    Ice Melted
    Price: 2.76
    Stake: €10.05


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    17th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recover €7.69 lost)

    4:35 Wetherby
    Ice Melted
    Price: 2.76
    Stake: €10.05

    Ice Melted loses.

    Stats

    Total profit banked to date: € 60
    Number of bets:17
    Winning bets:6
    Strike Rate: 35.29%
    Highest Stake to date: €35.00
    Longest Losing run: 3 losers

    Return required on next bet: €27.74

    ==========================

    18th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recover €17.74 lost)

    5:10 Wetherby
    Clan Royal
    Price: 4.3
    Stake: €8.41


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    18th Selection (Looking to win €10, and recover €17.74 lost)

    5:10 Wetherby
    Clan Royal
    Price: 4.3
    Stake: €8.41

    Clan Royal loses


    Stats

    Total profit banked to date: € 60
    Number of bets:18
    Winning bets:6
    Strike Rate: 33.33%
    Highest Stake to date: €34.70
    Longest Losing run: 4 losers

    Return required on next bet: €36.15 (Looking to win €10 and recover €26.15 lost)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    19th Selection (Looking to win €10 and recover €26.15 lost)

    2:30 Carlisle
    Keepathem
    Price: 19
    Stake: €1.46


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    19th Selection (Looking to win €10 and recover €26.15 lost)

    2:30 Carlisle
    Keepathem
    Price: 19
    Stake: €1.46

    Keepathem was pulled up

    Stats

    Total profit banked to date: € 60
    Number of bets:19
    Winning bets:6
    Strike Rate: 31.58%
    Highest loss chased to date: €35.00
    Highest Stake to date: €34.70
    Longest Losing run: 5 losers (current run)


    Return required on next bet: €37.61 (Looking to win €10 and recover €27.61lost)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    20th Selection (Looking to win €10 and recover €27.61 lost)

    1:10 Plumpton
    Travolta
    Price: 1.71
    Stake: €52.97


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    20th Selection (Looking to win €10 and recover €27.61 lost)

    1:10 Plumpton
    Travolta
    Price: 1.71
    Stake: €52.97

    Uh oh! Another odds on shot gets beaten:eek: Stakes are getting high now.

    Stats

    Total profit banked to date: € 60
    Number of bets:20
    Winning bets:6
    Strike Rate: 30%
    Highest loss chased to date: €35.00
    Highest Stake to date: €52.97
    Longest Losing run: 6 losers (current run)

    Return required on next bet: €63.58 (Looking to win €10 and recover €53.58 lost)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    21st Selection (Looking to win €10 and recover €53.58 lost)

    3:40 Plumpton
    Spuradich
    Price: 4.7
    Stake: €17.19


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    21st Selection (Looking to win €10 and recover €53.58 lost)

    3:40 Plumpton
    Spuradich
    Price: 4.7
    Stake: €17.19

    Oh dear oh dear :rolleyes:



    Stats

    Total profit banked to date: € 60
    Number of bets:21
    Winning bets:6
    Strike Rate: 28.57%
    Highest loss chased to date: €53.58
    Highest Stake to date: €52.97
    Longest Losing run: 7 losers (current run)

    Return required on next bet: €80.77 (Looking to win €10 and recover €70.77 lost)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,757 ✭✭✭masterK


    The real problem I see with this sort of system is that you can't lose on paper, well actually the only way you can lose is if McCoy never has another winner. Even if that stakes go up to 10,000 you still can't lose paper trading, in reality a losing run would be a lot more trying.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭wb


    masterK wrote:
    The real problem I see with this sort of system is that you can't lose on paper, well actually the only way you can lose is if McCoy never has another winner. Even if that stakes go up to 10,000 you still can't lose paper trading, in reality a losing run would be a lot more trying.

    Thats the point really though. This is not being done with real money (hence the title) I'm checking (on paper) to see how high the stakes will go to before he gets another winner. With the likes of McCoy, he would rarely go more that 10 rides or so without a winner, although because I dont have time to post for every horse, I have missed some winners too. As I said in the first post, I never had the bank or the bottle to loss chase in real life. It's out of interest more than anything.


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