whats my move??

eoghan104

2/4 NL Holdem. Stacks: Me ($550) Villain ($450)

I Raise on the button to 20 with KJ h only the villain calls.

Hes a fairly decent player and haven’t seen him getting out of line at all.
Flop K85 rainbow.

He checks I bet 36 and he calls.

Turn brings a J completing the rainbow.

He checks again so I bet 64 (good/bad ??)

River is a 6 and Villain checks. What do you think is the best move here?
All advice and criticism welcome!

ianmc38

I'd definitely value bet here. He can easily have AK or KQ. Pot is around 240? I'd bet about half.

marius

ianmc38 wrote:

I'd definitely value bet here. He can easily have AK or KQ. Pot is around 240? I'd bet about half.

agreed - I'd value bet about 100 - if he comes over the top I probably fold to his set.

eoghan104

ianmc38 wrote:

I'd definitely value bet here. He can easily have AK or KQ. Pot is around 240? I'd bet about half.

Yeh I wasn’t sure what way to go because I couldn’t think of many hands that he was flat calling with that weren’t either way ahead (set) or way behind (draw). I reasoned that there wernt really any hands that i beat that would call a bet on the river except maybe AK so I checked behind like a little bitch and he showed KQ. I think he may have called a bet and I feel as if im missing out on value in hands like this a lot.

*Note to self…….. Grow a set.

5starpool

There is no way he has a set here I think. Anything between 100-150 sounds good to me here.

Edit: Nice catch on the turn

marius

eoghan104 wrote:

*Note to self…….. Grow a set.

Hey - if you could grow sets we would all be doing it:D

eoghan104

5starpool wrote:

There is no way he has a set here I think. Anything between 100-150 sounds good to me here.

Edit: Nice catch on the turn

Why dont you think he could have a set here?? its not a scary board for a set ?? and preflop action could easily mean 55 or 88 here IMO

careca

eoghan104 wrote:

Why dont you think he could have a set here?? its not a scary board for a set ?? and preflop action could easily mean 55 or 88 here IMO

Its very bad play by him if he checks a set on the river. You definetly lost out on a bet there. Agree with the rest, about 100-120.

edit to say, what non paired board isn't scary for a set ?

Norwich Fan Rob

if he has a set he usually leads the river or re raises the turn.

eoghan104

careca wrote:

Its very bad play by him if he checks a set on the river. You definetly lost out on a bet there. Agree with the rest, about 100-120.

edit to say, what non paired board isn't scary for a set ?

Yeh I suppose your right. If he bets the pot on the river though what do you do??

valor

this is a very easy value bet. i would bet more on the turn ~~85 or so so then i can push the river

phantom_lord

Bet 100-120.


If he goes all-in in the river it's 210 more into a pot of 690. Most likely it would be a set, or a fairly audacious bluff, but if he hasn't been getting out of line I guess you'd have to give hiim credit for it.

cardshark202

Bet 100 on turn, shove river

careca

eoghan104 wrote:

Yeh I suppose your right. If he bets the pot on the river though what do you do??

More interesting alright. Very tricky one to get away from. I suppose the better players could let it go, not sure I would. Normally check call, check call and big bet would set alarm bells going so I should be able to release it. Still not sure though. Can I sit on the fence and see what the real players say

Gholimoli

That is a relatively dry board.
If he check/call twice on pots the river he is either bluffing (very very rare) or has a set.
If he has not stepped out of line then I would fold his river pot bet?

Norwich Fan Rob

more likely to be a set if he leads large on the river, more likely to be a K or missed str8 if he checks the river.

5starpool

eoghan104 wrote:

Why dont you think he could have a set here?? its not a scary board for a set ?? and preflop action could easily mean 55 or 88 here IMO

It is highly unlikely that he would play this way with a set, unless he is afraid you have KK/JJ, even then it is a very conservative line as the only thing that conceiveably could beat you is a higher set. He cannot put you on 79 to have caught lucky on the river (or god forbid 47), and there is no flush draw on board.

As said by others, I don't like the sizing of your turn bet either. I presume you think you are value betting here, but sizing it so that as Cardshark says you can get it in on a non scary river (Which this is) should be your objective on that board. 100 would have been a good number.

phantom_lord

Gholimoli wrote:

That is a relatively dry board.
If he check/call twice on pots the river he is either bluffing (very very rare) or has a set.

Anyone ever make this move against a tight player who can lay down a hand, as a bluff?

eoghan104

Ok its pretty clear now that ive missed some value here. Thank you for the replies,

Now if only someone would set up a site that gives you time to post a decision on boards before you have to make it………!!
:rolleyes:

Gholimoli

phantom_lord wrote:

Anyone ever make this move against a tight player who can lay down a hand, as a bluff?

think about what you are suggesting and you can get an answer.
a tight player raises preflop,bets the flop,bets the turn and you wanna try and get him to fold on the river with a big bet?
do you think this is a good idea?

phantom_lord

Gholimoli wrote:

think about what you are suggesting and you can get an answer.
a tight player raises preflop,bets the flop,bets the turn and you wanna try and get him to fold on the river with a big bet?
do you think this is a good idea?

lol. no, sorry.


but generally, people who check/call, wake up on the river have the goods, surely there's a spot where this could be replicated and work.

NickyOD

Missing those river bets is really bad and over time will cost you a lot of money. You will always have the best hand there. This is where you make the most out of your hands so you shouldn't be thinking about damage limitation. It's all abuut about maximum extraction.