Book for Boards Monthly game

Shortstack

Taking up the challenge, I have never done a book before but now seems like a good time to start. I have not got a clue about % etc but these prices seem fair enough. I will take a maximum liability of $500 so get on quick if you spot some value! If I find out who some of these people are then the odds may change....

Your bet is on once I recieve the cash either via stars - Aces_Mike or All In - mike(at)antesup.com. If I know you then cash on the night will suffice as long as it is paid before the off.

PM me for availability before sending money. WIN ONLY.

ianmc38 20:1
HalfBaked 20:1
Flushdraw 12:1
Sikes 25:1
Ollieboy 12:1
LuckyLloyd 15:1
Gholimoli 8:1
Rounders123 15:1
Eoghan104 30:1
Eggie 30:1
Connie147 40:1
ZZR1100 20:1
The Klingon 25:1
5pin5 50:1
BigDragon 25:1
Cardshark 25:1
KPNuts 8:1
Mdwexford 20:1
Hectorjelly 8:1
Phantom Lord 20:1
Richie Lawlor 30:1
Mickste 30:1
jbravado 30:1
Ocallagh 6:1
Vegas Nights 40:1
Norwich Fan Rob 6:1
PPPSpecial 10:1
Wireless54 30:1
Daithio 6:1
Smurph 10:1
Straddlefor6 15:1
NTLBell 20:1
BigCityBanker 20:1
Macspower 30:1
The Chopper 15:1
Shortstack 15:1
White Knight 20:1
Eoghan 25:1
Willis 20:1
Spectre 25:1
El Stuntman 12:1
Fatboydim 15:1
Dappergent 40:1
DeVore 20:1

Shortstack

PS if you are a high price then no offence, I either don't know who you are or do not rate your chances in this field. If you think I am wrong then lump on

ditpoker

fair play to you mike..

Shortstack wrote:

Vegas Nights 40:1

thats just harsh on Nick!!

Shortstack wrote:

jbravado 30:1

could be good value for an each way bet!! or are you only taking outright win bets??
___________________

if i am planning on playing only if i qualify through a 10 rebuy college event can i get money on myself at 100/1 now!?!

RichieLawlor

Connie147 @ 40/1, pmsl Huge price everyone lump on

cardshark202

I'll put 10 dolla on myself @ 25/1

Shortstack

ditpoker wrote:

fair play to you mike..



thats just harsh on Nick!!


could be good value for an each way bet!! or are you only taking outright win bets??
___________________

if i am planning on playing only if i qualify through a 10 rebuy college event can i get money on myself at 100/1 now!?!

Win Only. Not being harsh on anyone but it is a quality field and I have not seen Nick at the business end of big tournament. Of course anyone can win but having watched most of the players on the list at some point or another I think the odds are fair to the punters, although I reckon a bookie will probably correct me

jbravado's odds may change if I can put a name to a face.

Shortstack

Connie & RichieLawlor sold out
Cardshark $10 (sure you dont want euro and give to me on the night?) on himself.

connie147

Hi Mike,
I'll have a score on Dev @20/1. sort you out on Sat at the SE.

Straddlefor6 is Eoghan Lyons from limerick.

Shortstack

connie147 wrote:

Hi Mike,
I'll have a score on Dev @20/1. sort you out on Sat at the SE.

Straddlefor6 is Eoghan Lyons from limerick.

Np Connie. I knew it was an Eoghan alright, might loosen his odds a little.

Shortstack

Make it all euro, I will collect all on the night.

Healio

Ha betting to 254%, you robber!!

White Knight

Shortstack wrote:

Shortstack 15:1

what terrible value

Shortstack

Healio wrote:

Ha betting to 254%, you robber!!

Is that bad?

Goodluck2me

i think it measn that if for example you recieved 100€ exactly on everyone you would make 100 x 2.54

Healio

Shortstack wrote:

Is that bad?

Bad for the punters!!!

If someone were to back each runner to win €100 it would cost €254, therefore you would be guaranteed 154 in profit, or 154%

ianmc38

I'll have 10 on sikes, jbravado and halfbaked.

Daithio

€20 on Cardshark, €15 on Straddle46, and €15 on The Chopper.

ocallagh

ok:


30 on Cardshark 25:1
10 on ianmc38 20:1
10 on HalfBaked 20:1
10 on Connie147 40:1
10 on Shortstack 15:1
10 on DeVore 20:1

Shortstack

Ok I'll take all those , Cardshark and Devore are full along with connie and RichieLawlor.

Shortstack

Market has changed.

ianmc38 20:1
HalfBaked 20:1
Flushdraw 20:1
Sikes 25:1
Ollieboy 20:1
LuckyLloyd 20:1
Gholimoli 15:1
Rounders123 25:1
Eoghan104 30:1
Eggie 30:1
Connie147 40:1 No more bets at present
ZZR1100 20:1
The Klingon 25:1
5pin5 50:1
BigDragon 25:1
Cardshark 25:1 No more bets at present
KPNuts 15:1
Mdwexford 20:1
Hectorjelly 12:1
Phantom Lord 20:1
Richie Lawlor 30:1
Mickste 30:1
jbravado 30:1
Ocallagh 12:1
Vegas Nights 40:1
Norwich Fan Rob 12:1
PPPSpecial 20:1
Wireless54 30:1
Daithio 11:1
Smurph 20:1
Straddlefor6 15:1
NTLBell 20:1
BigCityBanker 20:1
Macspower 30:1
The Chopper 15:1
Shortstack 15:1
White Knight 20:1
Eoghan 25:1
Willis 20:1
Spectre 25:1
El Stuntman 20:1
Fatboydim 20:1
Dappergent 50:1
DeVore 20:1

RoundTower

I'll lay cardshark at the same price for anyone turned away by Mike. PM to confirm.

Shortstack

RoundTower wrote:

I'll lay cardshark at the same price for anyone turned away by Mike. PM to confirm.

Tom M. says:
lol
Mike says:
I'll get Dave M to lay off Reggie

Daithio

I'll have 15 on you too actually Mike.

Shortstack

Daithio wrote:

I'll have 15 on you too actually Mike.

No problem.

The_Chopper

Daithio wrote:

€20 on Cardshark, €15 on Straddle46, and €15 on The Chopper.

I'll have 15 on Daithio and 15 on straddle46

Shortstack

The_Chopper wrote:

I'll have 15 on Daithio and 15 on straddle46

Done

El Stuntman

seeing as Bob isn't around (:) ), I'll have a tenner each on Big Dragon at 25/1 and Gholimoli at 15/1...

edit: give us a tenner on Smurph at 20s too....

put a sign on your head or something and I'll sort you out before the off!

BigCityBanker

A little bit of light reading on book % for anybody who cares.. This is from an article I had published last year... I have a more thorough explanation of the below in the original paper if anybody wants to read it PM me.

The book according to the Racing Post is the “sum of the quoted probabilities across all horses in a race”. The bookmakers assign each horse in the race a probability of winning, which is represented by the odds. To translate these odds into the book % you add 1 to the odds and divide it into 100, i.e. 3/1 contributes 25% to the book, 100/ (3+1) = 25%.

So how then are the bookies “robbing” us? In order to examine this we must first consider a situation where a bookmakers aim is not to make profit but rather to provide a service. Consider a 5 horse race where each horse is deemed to have an equal (20%) chance of winning. In a fair market each horse would be priced at 4/1. If the bookmaker were to accept a bet on the horses’ equal in value to their book percentage, in this case 20% so a bet of €20 per horse, at 4/1 he would have an evenly matched book. He would know that regardless of the outcome of the race he must pay €100 to the holder of the ticket on the winning horse. In this case the bookmaker made zero profit and the betting public as a group also made zero profit.

However, the situation outlined above is unfortunately a hypothetical one. In the real betting world one would expect that one of the horses would be 6/4, maybe another one of them 2/1 and the remaining three horses at 4/1. In this instance the book would be 133%. Again if the bookmaker accepted a bet equal in value to the respective horse’s book percentage he would accept a bet of €40 on the 6/4 shot, €33.33 on the 2/1 shot and €20 on each of the 4/1 shots. The bookmaker has a maximum liability of €100 but has generated turnover of €133.33. Irrespective of the result of the race the bookmaker has generated profit of €33.33 on his turnover.

This evenness of match i.e. the ability to lay horses equal to their respective book percentage, is in truth never achieved. This results in a bookmaker having an uneven book and in this instance the reported book percentage is no longer a true reflection of the market and reliance upon it as an indicator of the market is ill advised.

Can I back Norwich Fan Rob on a NRNB basis? If so I will have 40 fractions. Let me know

LuckyLloyd

€10 each on Hectorjelly @12/1, Flushdraw and Ollieboy @ 20/1. I will settle cash before the off on Saturday. Thanks!!

Ollieboy

Mike great book and have to say there all very fair and good odds.

Right, I'll have :

€20 on Len at 20:1 he's due a result and can lift his game on the day.(He better).

€20 in Dave Masters at 20:1 again, he loves the tough fields and I think his ego will want to win this, or he'll be first out....lol

€10 on Dave O'Callaghan, again he's alway up there with the winners and this is great value at those odds.

Give you the money on Saturday Mike if thats ok.

Ollie

sikes

ill pop a tenner on

ocallagh
daithio
ian
dave masters
kp

i will send the cash to you when u confirm

anyone up for a pint before hand? the ireland game kicks off at 530

ollyk1

Can I have €10 on myself and my friend (Andrew S) at 40/1 (i.e worse then the field price??) Anyone??

In the event of ties or money chops what happens to bets Shortstack??

P.S. NFC I'll have the €250 for you on Saturday for the EPT Dublin.

sikes

ollyk1 wrote:

In the event of ties or money chops what happens to bets Shortstack??

i think we should have to leave a % to the winner and play for it, that way there will be an outright winner. there was also talk of a trophy

LuckyLloyd

ollyk1 wrote:

Can I have €10 on myself and my friend (Andrew S) at 40/1 (i.e worse then the field price??) Anyone??

That would be a terrible bet.

ianmc38

Flushdraw will have news on the trophy whenever he crawls out of bed this afternoon. He was talking to the SE about it last night.

sikes

LuckyLloyd wrote:

That would be a terrible bet.

i assume he means the highest price for a runner, not the size of the field which looks much bigger than 40

califano

ollyk1 wrote:

In the event of ties or money chops what happens to bets Shortstack??

I think if its say a 3 way split the the person who takes the biggest % of prizemoney is deemed the winner?.

If its an equal split for 1st then dead heat rules should apply i.e full stake at half the s.p?

ollyk1

LuckyLloyd wrote:

That would be a terrible bet.

My language was unclear.

Everyone quoted so far is at 40/1 or less. There will be more than 40 runners. Therefore an unpriced but specific individual in the the field has to ~70/1 imho (without doing the numbers and ignoring the overround that Shortstack has built in for himself!!).

I want to put a bet on myself and my friend at 40/1 if anyone will take the bet. Thanks.

Edit: Obviously if someone will offer me 70/1 I'd take their hand off!! lol

If I was betting against the listed players and was being left with whoever else turns up from Boards (or the street) I'd be happy to get 10/1 but where's the fun in that bet!!

LuckyLloyd

ollyk1 wrote:

My language was unclear.

Everyone quoted so far is at 40/1 or less. There will be more than 40 runners. Therefore the field has to ~70/1 imho (without doing the numbers and ignoring the overround that Shortstack has built in for himself!!).

I want to put a bet on myself and my friend at 40/1 if anyone will take the bet. Thanks.

Edit: Obviously if someone will offer me 70/1 I'd take their hand off!! lol

Ah - understood Olly. Sorry about the shortness of my initial reply. Sounded like a bit of an ass.

BigCityBanker

rounders123 wrote:

If its an equal split for 1st then dead heat rules should apply i.e full stake at half the s.p?

I think you will find that it is half your steak to full odds in the event of a two way tie, one third of your steak to full odds in the event of a 3 way tie and so on...

smurph

€20 on Ollieboy 20:1 If he gets chips beware one and all.

€20 in PPPSpecial 20:1 (Dave Masters), throat losengers at ready for the chit chat at the table.

€20 on BigDragon 25:1 (Dave Kingston) He needs a new car bless him.....

Give you the money on Saturday Mike if thats ok.

Smurph

ArmaniJeanss

rounders123 wrote:

If its an equal split for 1st then dead heat rules should apply i.e full stake at half the s.p?

BigCityBanker wrote:

I think you will find that it is half your steak to full odds in the event of a two way tie, one third of your steak to full odds in the event of a 3 way tie and so on...

I fail to see your point BCB, theres no difference.

i.e. if €10 at 10/1 dead heats, your way is €5 at 10/1 = €55.
Rounders123 way is €10 at 9/2* which is also €55.

*10/1 implies 1 in 11 chance, half those odds are 2 in 11 = 9/2.

HalfBaked

I'll have €10 on each of the below:

Ocallagh
KpNuts
IanMc
Spectre

Sort you out on the night if that's ok Mike.

BigCityBanker

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

I fail to see your point BCB, theres no difference.

i.e. if €10 at 10/1 dead heats, your way is €5 at 10/1 = €55.
Rounders123 way is €10 at 9/2* which is also €55.

*10/1 implies 1 in 11 chance, half those odds are 2 in 11 = 9/2.

Armani your thought process is somewhat flawed - when the rules are applied correctly the below happens. FYI half of 10/1 is 5/1.

Full Steak Half Steak Full Odds Half Odds Return = Full Steak*Half Odds Return = Half Steak*Full Odds
100 50 10 5 600 550

ntlbell

No price on ROONEY_DIVES?

BigDragon

What price on a Team Ireland player winning it Mike?

Smurph...

ArmaniJeanss

BigCityBanker wrote:

FYI half of 10/1 is 5/1.

Thats clearly not true.
10/1 implies 1 in 11 chance, half of that is 2 in 11 which is 9/2.

Im % terms
10/1 implies 9.09% chance.
5/1 implies 16.66% chance.
9/2 implies 18.18% chance.

Therefore FYI half of 10/1 is clearly 9/2.

BigCityBanker

ok armani jeans - you know best.

ntlbell

Can't see a price on OLLYK?

BigDragon

Ollieboy 20:1
PPPSpecial 20:1
Smurph 20:1
Fatboydim 20:1

€10 each one.

Flushdraw

Mike, I'll take the following for 20euro a head

LuckyLloyd 20:1
Ocallagh 12:1
PPPSpecial 20:1
Daithio 11:1
Shortstack 15:1