"The IRA's campaign is over" Time for a deal?

Villain

Well Tony Blair today stated

“Sinn Féin and the IRA are following the political path and a commitment to exclusively peaceful and democratic means.” “The IRA's campaign is over.”

So what now? Will the DUP do a deal before the November deadline or will direct rule be the way forward for the people of the North of Ireland?

The people of Northern Ireland deserve better than direct rule and if Sinn Fein and the DUP can't make a deal, they have failed the people who support them, the latest IMC report shows how far we have come in the past few years but we can't stop now we need to bring about a stable power sharing agreement.

Sinn Fein need to move on policing, lasting peace won't survive without both sides of the community supporting the PSNI and the Loyalists groups need to disarm.

Ian Paisley has got what he wanted, the IRA are finished now he needs take a step forward and enter power sharing with Gerry Adams.

smashey

irish1 wrote:

Well Tony Blair today stated

So what now? Will the DUP do a deal before the November deadline or will direct rule be the way forward for the people of the North of Ireland?

Ian Paisley has got what he wanted, the IRA are finished now he needs take a step forward and enter power sharing with Gerry Adams.

Paisley will probably find something else to avoid the step forward.

mike65

Was listening to someone on Newstalk yesterday who's knows the scene, he reckons they'll miss the deadline but a deal will be done by spring.

Sinn Fein do have at least one more bridge to cross - recognition of the PSNI as the legitimate police force for Northern Ireland.

Mike.

constitutionus

problem is both governments have been pretty adamant that if a deal isnt done in november its direct control from dublin and london. i personally think paisley doesnt think that'll happen but i reckon bertie and tony'll do it. bet you anything its another 24hr deadline when they finally realise its not a bluff.

lostexpectation

mike65 wrote:

Was listening to someone on Newstalk yesterday who's knows the scene, he reckons they'll miss the deadline but a deal will be done by spring.

Sinn Fein do have at least one more bridge to cross - recognition of the PSNI as the legitimate police force for Northern Ireland.

Mike.

yeah nobody ever goes into detail of why SF have a problem with that, which I think is about things like having M15 as the intelligence service instead of alocal one, the UDA want to turn themselves into a comunity org, but wouldn't let the IRA turn into an ol boys club.

BaZmO*

smashey wrote:

Paisley will probably find something else to avoid the step forward.

He'll probably insist that the orange part of the Tricolour is removed before he'll talk.

Shield

mike65 wrote:

Sinn Fein do have at least one more bridge to cross - recognition of the PSNI as the legitimate police force for Northern Ireland.

We wait in hope. It would make our jobs a hell of a lot easier if they did and might encourage more Catholics to consider signing up and making the difference they want to see.

Sand

There wont be any lasting deal by November 24th. The same "deal on paper/photo opportunity first, resolve issues second" method is being applied. I saw an unamed British civil servant being quoted as saying the important thing was to have the headlines on November 25th reading "Its a deal". Thats the least important thing if the headlines are reading "DUP pulls out, institutions collapse - again" by December 25th.

The whole issue of policing, OTRs and people intimidated out of areas remains and theyre far, far too critical to leave to some point in the future. We saw what happened with the decomissioning clause in the original deal - took 6-7 years, the electoral massacre of the UUP and the collapse of institutions before SFIRA made some efforts in that direction - allegedly anyway. If theres any scope for delay or misinterpretation on the part of recognition of policing in any patched up November deal then Adams and Co will take advantage of it - the only carrot is institutions up and running so best to get policing sorted out first, then organise the photo ops.

peacekeeper26

We are being told that after November 24th, if there is no deal reached to restore the institutions at Stormont, then both Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern will be hosting no further talks with the various NI parties, and that Stormont will close, and all the 108 MLAs will lose their salaries.

The NI parties will then be left on their own to sort out any remaining issues blocking the restoration of devolution. It is inconceivable that anytime thereafter, Ian Paisley will be leading a DUP party delegation down the Falls Road to the Sinn Fein office, with an offer to share power with republicans.

Sand

We are being told that after November 24th, if there is no deal reached to restore the institutions at Stormont, then both Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern will be hosting no further talks with the various NI parties, and that Stormont will close, and all the 108 MLAs will lose their salaries.

The NI parties will then be left on their own to sort out any remaining issues blocking the restoration of devolution. It is inconceivable that anytime thereafter, Ian Paisley will be leading a DUP party delegation down the Falls Road to the Sinn Fein office, with an offer to share power with republicans.

Mightnt be a bad thing to stop inviting parties to Chequers and offering high profile photo ops that mostly benefit the two most extreme organisations involved.

It might be inconceivable that the DUP would cut a deal with Adams after November 24th but theyve got no more or less incentive to cut one now. And lets face it, if the parties involved cant reach agreement without having both the Dublin and London governments holding their hands then theyre not fit for any sort of functional government either way.

Villain

According to RTE 9 o clock news, Gerry Adams has given the strongest hint yet that SF are going to change their policing policy. This is ahead of talks in Scotland tomorrow between both sides and both Governments.

Fingers crossed a deal can be done.

A Dub in Glasgo

Some will not be crossing those fingers as it fits their political outlook not to have a deal.

Villain

Well if they fail to do a deal before November it clearly shows that they don't want the people of Northern Ireland to be governed by their democratically elected representatives.

Dave!

Republicans in favour of policing, says Adams

At rally in Belfast tonight, the Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams has signaled that his party is preparing for policy shifts on policing.

On the eve of political negotiations between the Northern parties and the British and Irish governments in Scotland, Mr Adams has told supporters that Republicans are ''for policing and the rule of law''.

Gerry Adams also insisted that Republicans are in favour of policing, and opposed to criminality of all kinds.
Advertisement

The west Belfast MP said that all those who profited from crime had to be put out of business.

In a wide ranging address, Mr Adams said a huge amount had been achieved in improving the policing system in Northern Ireland in recent years, and significant progress had been achieved.

He maintained his party's support for law and order was not a response to unionist demands.

He told his audience that Sinn Féin backed the 24 November deadline imposed by the two governments and said irrespective of what happened by that date progress would continue.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/1010/northpolitics.html?rss

____________________________

Gerry Adams is continuing to make Paisley look very bad!

oscarBravo

Dave, a verbatim copy/paste from an external article sans comment is against the rules here.

Dave!

I said at the end, "Gerry Adams is continuing to make Paisley look very bad!"

As in, Adams is doing very well at cleaning up the SF image, and is giving the DUP every reason to form a government with them, so if Paisley continues to refuse then it will reflect poorly on the party and it'll hurt them in the next election. SF are gonna do very well in the next election methinks!

That alroysh?

sceptre

I'd be a little more sympathetic if SF actually made some policy shifts on policing as opposed to making vague statements that they were preparing for policy shifts on policing but that it was nothing to do with demands from the unionists. I'm interested in results or firm intentions rather than thinking about perhaps doing something vague. Otherwise it's the same old same old. And as I've said before, they're all behaving like children. Still.

mike65

I think Dr No is now Dr Proberly.

Mike.

Dave!

sceptre wrote:

I'd be a little more sympathetic if SF actually made some policy shifts on policing as opposed to making vague statements that they were preparing for policy shifts on policing but that it was nothing to do with demands from the unionists. I'm interested in results or firm intentions rather than thinking about perhaps doing something vague. Otherwise it's the same old same old. And as I've said before, they're all behaving like children. Still.

True enough, but SF's tactics seem to be undermining Paisley's tactics quite nicely!

oscarBravo

DaveMcG wrote:

I said at the end, "Gerry Adams is continuing to make Paisley look very bad!"

Heh. I actually thought that was a sig.

DaveMcG wrote:

As in, Adams is doing very well at cleaning up the SF image, and is giving the DUP every reason to form a government with them, so if Paisley continues to refuse then it will reflect poorly on the party and it'll hurt them in the next election. SF are gonna do very well in the next election methinks!

That alroysh?

Ah yes, that's much better, ta.

sceptre

DaveMcG wrote:

True enough, but SF's tactics seem to be undermining Paisley's tactics quite nicely!

Unfortunately, and this isn't because I see most of SF as a shower of tossers as I see the DUP in the same light, the tactics of Adams appear to follow the "not an inch" line as long as he's doing nothing but considering movement on something, policing in this case, but won't say what. Funnily enough, the not an inch line is also a favourite tactic of the DUP. They of course haven't been making vague promises to perhaps consider much but the net result is the same from both sides at the moment. No inches moved on either side. For me, and I'm not throwing this at you specifically, these tactics look like the kind of thing that would undermine the other side if only the feeble-minded were watching.

I'm not interested in "seem to be", I'm not interesting in anyone being undermined or their tactics being undermined. I'm interested in progress so the children can have their respective rattles and a platform to wave them from rather than some misguided notion that what they should really be doing is throwing them. Tactics bedamned and anyone who says otherwise is close enough to a misguided fool that it makes no difference. Perhaps I've got higher standards than the general populace but these guys were elected to do something and come to an agreement rather than spending as much time as possible (while being personally funded with public money ) explaining why they won't do specific and reasonable things that would result in coming to an agreement and actually spending their publically-funded time doing something.

Diogenes

Agreed Sceptre the tit for tat politics has moved from tit for tat killings to tit for tat politics it's just the forum has changed. Yes people aren't being killed or maimed to the level that occured when the troubles were at their height, but neither side has really progressed philosophically.

Time for a deal? There is a deal the full implementation of the Good Friday agreement would be acceptable.

sceptre

VPN wrote:

I just wonder what the naysayers will say once all that happens . probably 'the same old same old'

Oh I rather doubt it. It's only the same old same old while it's the same old same old.

Sgt. Sensible

VPN wrote:

the governments havent bothered implimenting the full gfa. fair fecks to sinn fein - seem to be doing what they promised and again, forging ahead when the rest are too chicken to make a move forward.

Just as it was on the cards that the IRA were going to disappear (no matter how many boards politics 'experts' said that would never happen),

I've been here a bit longer than you and I don't recall seeing any 'experts' saying any such thing here. How so?

oscarBravo

VPN wrote:

...the ira have disbanded...

When did this happen?

Sand

When did this happen?

Gerry Adams made some speech where he expressed an earnest desire that there no longer be a need for the IRA to exist. This is practically the same as announcing the IRA no longer exists, as it would be far too embarrassing and insensitive to actually announce they dont exist. Non existent subversives have feelings you know! Even if it ever had existed, SF had nothing to do with it. The accusations of the IRA existing are only proposed by West Brit Padraig Pearse Hating traitors to the cause and securocrat enemies of the peace process. Hallowed be its name.

so too will it happen that sinn fein will join the policing board - after I assume the policing board actually gets a bit of power to be able to change things

SFIRA can and should join the policing board now. The concept of them being in government whilst not supporting the police force and courts that enforce the legislation they enact is pathetic.

There wont be any deal before SFIRA join the policing board and endorse the PSNI. For once, they will have to take some risks and make a move before being dragged kicking and screaming and forced to do it - oh wait actually, theyre still being forced when you consider theyll do it to swing the deal. And personally, If I were in the PSNI, Id be extremely uncomftable about the idea of SFIRA having any "power to be able to change things" given the fate of Donaldson.

peacekeeper26

Wonder if the Northern Ireland parties - especially the DUP and Sinn Fein - will be engaging with each other at St. Andrews ?

If talking to each other is still not possible at this stage, then how about both parties following the example of those who are featured in the following video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFYSvuFcl2A

VPN

VPN wrote:

oh, maybe you should read this thread. particularly this page. still though, ive no intention in having a arsewise 'policitical' debate not unless people shake off the anti peace process stance.

I wish you had a similar no intention of ban evading with new accounts.
VPN banned permanently as per the charter

RedPlanet

It'd be nice if SF join the Policing Board but it's really something that should be left entirely up to them.
It is surely no reason to deny a party's mandate and democratic entitlements.
Not to mention depriving everybody elses.
Can you not see for example, situations in which SF not on the Policing Board works to their detriment?
Remember, Patten was the compromise and we didn't get Patten.
Instead we got whatever the British Government decided.

On another note, it is worth pointing out that according to the IMC:
"The maintenance of the IRA's command and control structure is helping rather than hindering the peace process in the North"
http://www.breakingnews.ie/2006/09/06/story275623.html

lostexpectation

SF want police to be headed within NI, whats so crazy about that?

RedPlanet

lostexpectation wrote:

SF want police to headed within NI, whats so crazy about that?

I dunno, i guess maybe some folks believe the DUP is just soo inclusive that they refuse to leave any party behind, or leave any party out.
It's not at all that they are just grasping at straws to prevent SF from having a say in the governance of NI; no, that couldn't be it.:rolleyes:

Dave!

Looks like they've reached an agreement

http://news.google.ie/news?hl=en&q=northern%20ireland&btnG=Google+Search&sa=N&tab=wn

Can't imagine it's gonna last long, though. It just looks good.

mike65

I thought they'd find it within thesmelves to strike a deal. Plenty of room for cocks-ups yet.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6046302.stm

A roadmap to restore devolution to Northern Ireland has been revealed by the British and Irish governments.

It contains a target date of 26 March 2007 for a new executive to be up and running.

The parties have until 10 November to respond to the plan. If they agree to it, a first and deputy first minister would be nominated on 24 November.

The plan follows three days of multi-party talks at St Andrews in Scotland.

Prime Minister Tony Blair said there would have to be some form of electoral endorsement of the plan - either an election or a referendum.

He said the two key components of a plan were that all parties accept the police and courts and have a clear agreement on power-sharing...

.

Mike.

Villain

Looks like we may have a deal, this could be a great leap forward for the North, if a deal is done Sinn Fein and the DUP should be applauded. I don't think many posters here would have thought such a deal possible 10 or even 5 years ago.

Sinn Fein and the DUP are far from perfect parties to be governing a state but hopefully once the divide has been crossed they will develop real policies for the Northern Ireland which will benefit the state and the people who live in it.

Lets just hope Dr. No doesn't doesn't say no again.

Sgt. Sensible

irish1 wrote:

Sinn Fein and the DUP are far from perfect parties to be governing a state

Greatest understatement I've ever seen.

murphaph

Does anybody know what question(s) will be posed in any referendum here in the south?

lostexpectation

Sgt. Sensible wrote:

Greatest understatement I've ever seen.

or like south africa they finally get peace and then screw the poor.

what was the question the GFA, I guess would do you agree with st andrews renewal

I don't understand why they need a referendum, if only a chance for people to turn back the GFA.

mike65

Not sure why Free-Staters should have any role in this.

Mike.

Nuttzz

what is mcguinness rather than adams being touted has deputy fist minister? is this some short of power sharing agreement in SF?

mike65

Good question! Maybe its something to do with the SF party constitution, that the presdient can't also hold one of the top Stormont 2 jobs. Or maybe Big Ian trusts McGuiness more. (well you never know).

Mike.

Diogenes

mike65 wrote:

Good question! Maybe its something to do with the SF party constitution, that the presdient can't also hold one of the top Stormont 2 jobs. Or maybe Big Ian trusts McGuiness more. .

I think the term is "mistrusts Mc Guinness less"

Colonel Sanders

Surely one of the main problems re. policing is that the reforms of the psni still do not meet what ws agreed under the good friday agreement. A similar issue existed re. disarmament. The isue was fudged (can't rememebr the exact phrase but something to do with both sides using whatever influence they could to ensure paramilitary groups decommissioned) in the agreement but unionists still signed and looked for things that were not in the agreement before agreeing to powersharing.

Dave!

Paisley is after walking out of face-to-face talks with Gerry Adams today, because, he says, Sinn Féin won't pledge their support to the PSNI.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-10-17T142543Z_01_L17779504_RTRUKOC_0_US-IRISH.xml&WTmodLoc=IntNewsHome_C2_worldNews-5

So much for that! When Martin McGuiness pledges an oath to the PSNI, I wonder what excuse Paisley will come up with next.

lostexpectation

isn't hte police that should pledge an oath to the government eh?

bik_ireland

The number of political genii (an bhfuil sin an focail ceart?) on the boards anseo is most comforting. So many lovely comments about Sinn Féin - AND the Unionist parties. However - I suspect that most of the cynical comments are from poorly or uninformed or politically atheist people. I so wish these people would keep the hell out of any comment on Irish political matters as they tend to come from silly southern Irish wannabe politicos who through no fault of their own have not experienced anything. AT ALL! - EVER! Please , guys - don't treat this topic as you would some silly Hollywood gossip story. Please - realise you have the luxury of forming your political opinion without the influences of intimidation, fear, anger and personal experience of history itself. For those whom I KNOW will respond negatively to this post - please don't bother. I'm not looking for an argument- just making a point.

Oíche mhaith -
Niall mac an Rí

mike65

I so wish these people would keep the hell out of any comment on Irish political matters as they tend to come from silly southern Irish wannabe politicos who through no fault of their own have not experienced anything

What a "silly-billy" you are. As the south likes to stick its oar into Northern matters on a dialy basis its reasonable we, the great unwashed/untaxed (delete as applicable) comment on matters Norn Iron. Hell our Masters are apparently trying to engineeer a take-over - sorry agreed merger so its fair game.

Mike.

Diogenes

bik_ireland wrote:

A request...

Boards.ie says, "NO!"