A difficult decision for some.

NickyOD

You are in a large multi and its down to 3. Payouts aren't relevent at this point. First is all that matters.

Blinds are 150K/300K

Approximate Stacks: 65M, 8M, and you 15M.

The chip leader limps on the button. This is any 2 cards for him. You complete with

The BB raises to 1.1M and chip leader calls. This still doesn't mean the chip leader has a hand. BB could have a lot of unpaired hands as he doens't seem afraid to raise OOP. He may also be alittle tilty as he made the same play in the SB last hand and lost a good chunk of his chips tot he chip leader. Anyway, you decide to call.

Flop comes

You check. The BB leads out for 3.5M. He definitely has a legitimate hand and has half his stack in the middle. The chip leader immediately moves all in.

What do you do?

Ste05

Call fairly quickly.

Lazare

Get them in there. Especially if 1st is all that matters.

Flushdraw

Its defo a call for me. As you said, its all about 1st in this tournament. Even if the BB has a legitamte hand, lets say AA, you are still a 55% favourite for the hand. Should the BB win the main pot, theres still a 14m side pot to play for against the chip leader so its almost a freeroll call if you think he would push on a weak holding. Dont think you can fold here knowing that a scoop will give you 38m heads up against 50m and a great shot at taking the tournament down

biteme

Yah i watched this today too. Was very suprised to see him fold. How much harder was he hoping to hit the flop. I think this is a fairly easy call as otherwise if chip leader wins your gonna be stuck with 12/3m outta 90m heads up.
I think it's more of a call as even if you lose the hand and the chip leader wins your still coming second in chips. At least give yourself a decent shot at winning it instead of facing a 9:1 chip lead

NickyOD

biteme wrote:

Yah i watched this today too. Was very suprised to see him fold. How much harder was he hoping to hit the flop. I think this is a fairly easy call as otherwise if chip leader wins your gonna be stuck with 12/3m outta 90m heads up.
I think it's more of a call as even if you lose the hand and the chip leader wins your still coming second in chips. At least give yourself a decent shot at winning it instead of facing a 9:1 chip lead

Yeah I just could not believe Wassika's fold. How on earth is he going to find a better spot than this? I posted the poll out of curiosity to see if anyone n this forum would say fold. I mean what the hell? If he had called he would have won the hand and been even in chips HU. This guy was supposed to be a high stakes cash games player before the WSOP. If that's true then he's done it without a basic understanding of poker math 'cos no way did he put either oponent on a set here. Muppet!!!

gerry87

It would depend how you see the CL as a player, if he isn't great then why gamble. When you get to heads up it's not a huge problem if he has more chips than you, and it's not a huge benifit if you have more than him.

If you think you can outplay the CL HU, folding wouldnt be so bad.

RasTa

Apart from three 7's or 8's on the flop, would more do ye want

NickyOD

gerry87 wrote:

It would depend how you see the CL as a player, if he isn't great then why gamble. When you get to heads up it's not a huge problem if he has more chips than you, and it's not a huge benifit if you have more than him.

If you think you can outplay the CL HU, folding wouldnt be so bad.

You do realise, that despite the fact that you are drawing you're a favourite here over everything but a set. Actually what you'd really be afraid of is Gold haveing a bigger flush draw, but considering how he'd been playing I don't see how tit's possible to fold.

delanec8

NickyOD wrote:

You do realise, that despite the fact that you are drawing you're a favourite here over everything but a set?

Or a higher flush draw which is what Wasicka put Gold on according to his interview on the Circuit so his fold was pretty reasonable

NickyOD

delanec8 wrote:

Or a higher flush draw which is what Wasicka put Gold on according to his interview on the Circuit so his fold was pretty reasonable

He only thought about it for ten seconds though. I just think he hated being put all in by Gold and wanted to get HU regardless of the chips. He made up his mind without thinking, then made up the excuse for the fold later.

gerry87

NickyOD wrote:

You do realise, that despite the fact that you are drawing you're a favourite here over everything but a set?

I know you're a favoutie, but just about 55%. So 45% of the time you're out in 3rd. CL says he has shortstack beat, so your probably moving up to 2nd by folding, and then it's HU. I'd prefer to get the money in as a bigger favourite, and you still have plenty of chips to find that spot.

Duff Man Jr.

I think everyone at the final table except Alan C had convinced themselfs that Gold had already won and they were playing for second. Wasikca was probally thinking about the extra 2 million for second and he said he could beat Gold with a 10 to 1 lead.

nicnicnic

I'm folding.

that was one sick move he made against Cunningham with the QdKd

Goodluck2me

for an extra 2 million im doin whatever i can to get it, if folding is that then so be it... no way am i gambling fo r2million proper poker odds or not. its not like the odds matter as you will never be in the same position again, so you cant "over time" make it a winning play. although at the same time he hit it pretty hard. if gold was on a hgier flush draw then gold only had 7 outs. as 2 give him the SF. but gambling for 2 million is no my style, it would take a lot of beating variance and battling through competetions to win 2 million, where if folding more or less guarantees it then i do it...

MrPillowTalk

last 3 in the wsop and he folded here, what a donk how do these guys get that far?

MrPillowTalk

goodluck2me wrote:

for an extra 2 million im doin whatever i can to get it, if folding is that then so be it... no way am i gambling fo r2million proper poker odds or not. its not like the odds matter as you will never be in the same position again, so you cant "over time" make it a winning play. although at the same time he hit it pretty hard. if gold was on a hgier flush draw then gold only had 7 outs. as 2 give him the SF. but gambling for 2 million is no my style, it would take a lot of beating variance and battling through competetions to win 2 million, where if folding more or less guarantees it then i do it...

folding to try and get into second isnt really a reason, if the short stack wins then all of a sudden he has a similar chip stack to you and you have passed up a good chance to win a hugh pot and take it hu with a decent chance.

Daithio

More importantly, would he have hit?

bohsman

Daithio wrote:

More importantly, would he have hit?

I bet out on that flop but its an instacall the way it played out.

fuzzbox

I open push.

karlh

fuzzbox wrote:

I open push.

amen.

jimbling

3-way all in with straight flush draw on the flop...... wouldn't be able to get them in quick enough.

What more could you want when ur looking to double/treble up and combat the CL.

ntlbell

It took me awhile to realise where I knew this hand from.

You mention the prize pool doesn't come into it, I'm not saying it was a good or a bad fold but I'm 100% sure it was the money that caused this fold and nothing else.

phantom_lord

Even I would have shipped it here no problem.

TacT

There would have been burnmarks on the felt with the speed at which I shoved all my chips into the middle

ianmc38

How can anyone say 2million dollars is insignificant. That is undoubtedly a money fold if ever i've seen one.

Anyway the improtant thing is whether or not he'd have hit. That decides if it was a good or bad fold.

phantom_lord

ianmc38 wrote:

How can anyone say 2million dollars is insignificant. That is undoubtedly a money fold if ever i've seen one.

I'd be thinking more about the 12m for first in this spot. Rather than the extra 2 for 2nd.

TacT

If he called it he would have hit with a spade on the river busting jamie golds straight and taking out binger with his TPTK giving him a proper shot in terms of chip counts when it got HU

Hitman Actual

fuzzbox wrote:

I open push.

Agreed. But I have a feeling that Wasicka checked with the intention of CRAI, but then chickened out with all the action behind him (despite what he said after). The money at stake definately got to him, imo. And I also think that the players here who are saying that the money wouldn't get to them are not really being honest. It would take unbelieveable mental strength to stop it from affecting your decisions.

Edit: Another thing about the money involved: if he's very unlikely to ever be in that situation again, is it possible that folding is actually the better +EV move? [/controversial statement]

TacT

if you're not going to take a gamble for a real shot at 12million with such a monster draw and monstrous pot, where are you hoping to get the chips? You're already a millionaire and the only thing left to do is play to win. Not calling there ensured he got 2nd and would never get first given the chip counts getting to HU play. I think brunson put it best when he said, "sometimes you have to gamble to win." Wasicka failed miserably in the perfect spot to do so. Hachem did the same last year on an OESD. Ok, fine but an OESFD folding to that action is just insane given the money involved imo.

Ste05

I don't know, if he calls and misses he's gone out in third, costing him, what, $2m!!! That's alot of fcuking money.... Even if he is playing for 1st, that sort of money will affect anyone's thinking IMO...

Daithio

The funny thing is he probably checked assuming the shortstack would bet, Gold would fold, and he'd raise all in. He has to assume he's getting a call off the shortstack too, who will have half his chips in at this point. So he would have had to hit anyway, otherwise he'd be the shortstack, and would probably be looking at third position anyway. If I was ever going to fold this hand, which I wouldn't, I'd be more likely to do so against one player than against two. His fold was completely illogical.

fuzzbox

Daithio wrote:

The funny thing is he probably checked assuming the shortstack would bet, Gold would fold, and he'd raise all in. He has to assume he's getting a call off the shortstack too, who will have half his chips in at this point. So he would have had to hit anyway, otherwise he'd be the shortstack, and would probably be looking at third position anyway. If I was ever going to fold this hand, which I wouldn't, I'd be more likely to do so against one player than against two. His fold was completely illogical.

Which is why open shove > CRAI.

NickyOD

Ste05 wrote:

I don't know, if he calls and misses he's gone out in third, costing him, what, $2m!!! That's alot of fcuking money.... Even if he is playing for 1st, that sort of money will affect anyone's thinking IMO...

He's already gtd 2million. Why would you be worried about winning more when the champion of the world is at stake? OMG!! No way is the money a factor in your decision here. Anyway as was already pointed out int he thread, if Gold wins this hand you still come second which is why even if the money was a deciding factor you should still call.

MrPillowTalk

NickyOD wrote:

He's already gtd 2million. Why would you be worried about winning more when the champion of the world is at stake? OMG!! No way is the money a factor in your decision here. Anyway as was already pointed out int he thread, if Gold wins this hand you still come second which is why even if the money was a deciding factor you should still call.

The money definately comes in to it, but thats not really the point.

In this hand your better off getting all in against two players as opposed to one because it gives you far better odds on your money, I think this is never a fold and the main reason being that if the shortstack wins the pot against gold you have just passed a golden opporunity to more than double up and move up 2mill in prize money.

Edit: I cant believe 6 people think this is a fold lol

Ste05

NickyOD wrote:

He's already gtd 2million. Why would you be worried about winning more when the champion of the world is at stake? OMG!! No way is the money a factor in your decision here. Anyway as was already pointed out int he thread, if Gold wins this hand you still come second which is why even if the money was a deciding factor you should still call.

I never said he should fold, I think this is a must call too, I was just pointing out that the money obviously did affect his thinking and even if you're guaranteed $2m another $2m would certainly be nice, it's a once in a lifetime kinda thing, I doubt too many of those Final Tabler's (Bar AC) will be playing for $'000,000's again.

ntlbell

MrPillowTalk wrote:

The money definately comes in to it, but thats not really the point.

In this hand your better off getting all in against two players as opposed to one because it gives you far better odds on your money, I think this is never a fold and the main reason being that if the shortstack wins the pot against gold you have just passed a golden opporunity to more than double up and move up 2mill in prize money.

Edit: I cant believe 6 people think this is a fold lol

Only one person think it's a fold and that's nicnic. others seem to be just coming up with what might have caused him to fold the hand, rightly or wrongly.

cardshark202

ntlbell wrote:

Only one person think it's a fold and that's nicnic. others seem to be just coming up with what might have caused him to fold the hand, rightly or wrongly.

You know there is a poll in this thread.

MrPillowTalk

ntlbell wrote:

Only one person think it's a fold and that's nicnic. others seem to be just coming up with what might have caused him to fold the hand, rightly or wrongly.

6 people voted to fold mate

ntlbell

Duh, I'm a retard.

NickyOD

Was there really much of a difference to 2million and 4 million to Wassika or anyone else other than AC at that table?

Is there much of a difference between 2 and 4 million to anyone in this thread?

Would you rather have a lifetime supply of beer or twice that amount?

If I get to over half a million in this event I don't give a toss about winning any more money. After that its first or nothing and the best chance to do get there is to call.

Bandana boy

i voted for call but considering what is at stake I think this is a fold that should have been an open push

$2m is alot of cash and there is nothing to say that against a player like Gold you still cannot go on to win in HU even that badly disadvantaged anyone using a this is a long term winning strategy is nuts
And even that you are slight favourite is also nuts
Lets rephrase it
3 way game 2 players go at it you fold and you are 50/50 shot at winning $2million and the downsize is if you lose the 50/50 you dont lose $2m you are just not as well postioned for the $2M
I am sorry i fold every time

Bandana boy

NickyOD wrote:

Is there much of a difference between 2 and 4 million to anyone in this thread?

Yes there is a huge diffference between $2m and $4m
About $2m difference

All kidding aside $2m is really nice but if you have Family and want to help them out $2m does not go very far in the land of euro 400K-500K circa $600k for a 2 bedroom house

MrPillowTalk

anyone who would fold here should give up poker for their own benefit.

folding here is akin to the folding AA three way so I can go hu chesnut.

ionapaul

The money had to matter hugely in his decision, unless he already was a multi-millionaire. I wouldn't consider $2m enough to comfortably retire on - even $4m is just about enough. Now €4m, that I could work with!

Daithio

NickyOD wrote:

No way is the money a factor in your decision here.

Of course the money comes into it, 2m is 2m, no matter how much you have already. And I think he was gtd 4m already anyway. But even considering the jump in money, open pushing is the correct play here. And after he has checked he needs to call, who's saying that Gold is going to win the all in?

Tar.Aldarion

Wow, look at those burn marks on the table as I fling in my chips.

JuliusFranco

hookers aren't cheap

nicnicnic

MrPillowTalk wrote:

anyone who would fold here should give up poker for their own benefit.

folding here is akin to the folding AA three way so I can go hu chesnut.

Well I folded and I'm not giving up poker, why? its a monster draw but its still a draw. Also its probable that golds move is a higher flush draw considerably reducing his outs. pppspecial lost most of his chips on the same draw at this years event if I remember correctly and in his reflections considered it the wrong play. Now the difference in variables is huge here but its still a draw and as such a big bag of wind.



he said he thinks he can take gold with 10% of the chips and I reckon he had about a 40% chance of doing so as he was the far superior player. Oh yeh the 2 million might not matter to some but i think it might just affect me as well.


Just say the five or six isn't a spade but the other card is, you think gold has the spade draw, is it still an auto call? because if that's what gold had, bar the two nut outs the decision is do i call my tournament on an open ended straight draw.


edit. didnt see the 1.1 pre action so pushing is fine by me but I'm still not calling

gerry87

While 4million isn't an enormous amount of money, it's twice as good as 2million, and in reality it is all about the money. You're on a 2million dollar coin flip that you could win by not gambling. If you're willing to gamble to win the tournament why not wait and do it HU?

NickyOD

lo! I have no idea if you guys are being completely serioous or not.

"All kidding aside $2m is really nice but if you have Family and want to help them out $2m does not go very far in the land of euro"

"I wouldn't consider $2m enough to comfortably retire on - even $4m is just about enough"

"While 4million isn't an enormous amount of money....."

You're all ****ing crazy!!!!

What if he is giuaranteed 100 million and second is 200 million and first is 500 million. Would that chage people's decisions?

At what point is the money you're already guarnteed enough for you not to worry about moving up the payouts?