Late stages of an MTT, AJo

Hectorjelly

Late stages of the Tribeca Freeroll, about 15 players left. I am 3rd in chips and cover the table. There are two villains in this hand, utg who has about 5 blinds left, and utg+1 who has 6. Utg is a good(ish) player, utg +2 is a bad player who is on tilt. Utg pushs, UTG + 2 pushes, its folded to me on the button and I? I have about 20 blinds.

We are in the money (circa $300). Theres $6k for first.

shoutman

I think its a call for me, both players are pushing with any two hands as their blinds are fast approaching. I push trying to get the blinds out of the pot.
I reckon you are getting the odds to call this based on the calling range of the players, I suppose you are just hoping that neither have woken up with a monster or have you dominated. But if you push the blinds fold and you lose you are still left with 14 blinds.
So push to isolate for me.

Bandana boy

I think i might find a call here
you are about 20-25% to win the hand here i feel
and while not getting those odds to call its close the fact that you can survive with 14BBs and you could take out 2 players plus you never know u might concievably be 40%
UTG can have anything and UTG+1/2 could easy have sml PP so go for it we want the 6K

Rnger

push and gambool. you can take a 6 BB hit. winnign this puts you in an excellent position to win.

That said, folding isnt that much worse. Fairly marginal situation but i always say that

Goodluck2me

i fold here and wait for a better spot, i know theres value in it, but why give the poorer players such a good chance to double up. your obviously of a better standard and with 20BB your not under any pressure. i fold here.

30something

Yeah, I go for it here. Too good an opportunity to miss knowing I'll still be in tourney if beaten. I push to scare the beejasus out of the blinds who won't put their tourney on the line w/out absolute monsters.

Ste05

I think this is very marginal, I'd say you have at least 33% equity against their ranges, and so I suppose it'd depend on how gambly I felt, and how the table was playing, if it was very tight and blinds were easily up for grabs, I'd probably wait, but if blinds were getting defended strongly or I was OOP against a particularly aggressive player, I might take the gamble....

But having said that, I'm a huge gambler when it comes to MTT's and hence I think I'd take the gamble more times than most unless the table was particularly weak. And since this is a freeroll, I'd have thought alot of these players would be looking to just move up the money ladder and surely there's easier chips available later...

EDIT: LOL, I managed to say absolutely nothing there.... hmmm... OK, I push, no hang-on... I fold and wait... OK, finally, I push.

ocallagh

Sounds like a crapshoot!

I can't say for sure though. I need more info on UTG+1 (who i presume is the same guy as UTG+2 in your post)?

If I could put UTG+1 on a wide range I think it's an auto push. You have 20BBs. If u push and lose you'll have 14BBs which sounds average, if u win you'll have 32.5BBs which by the sounds of things is huge in that tourny.

Your edge (as a decent player) at this stage of the tourny where the average is 10 or 15BBs is not so great. You need to gamble and this is not the worst spot for it.

rogue trader

Straight fold. AJ looks pretty but aint when 2 people are all in from early position (tilting or not). You are still 3rd overall and there's one less player. Fold and out play the rest.

marius

I would definitely pass this up, there is just no reason to take a chance here that I can see - you are in a very strong posn, third in chips, you can chill for a while - rob a few blinds if possible etc.
I always try to call as few all-ins as possible in mtt's.
Say you win - you ave an extra 9BB's....you are still probably only going to be 2 or barely first in chips - it is not really going to change your position greatly. However if you lose you are suddenly under a fair bit of pressure with only 14 blinds.

ocallagh

rogue trader wrote:

Straight fold. AJ looks pretty but aint when 2 people are all in from early position (tilting or not). You are still 3rd overall and there's one less player. Fold and out play the rest.

Early position yes... but UTG only has 5BBs. His range is huge and by the sounds of it UTG+1's range is quite big too. It is only costing 6BBs to win 12.5BBs. Definitely not a straight fold.

Ste05

marius wrote:

Say you win - you ave an extra 9BB's....you are still probably only going to be 2 or barely first in chips - it is not really going to change your position greatly. However if you lose you are suddenly under a fair bit of pressure with only 14 blinds.

Well it's actually 12.5 BB's which will increase our stack by over 50%... ~20BB's turns into 32.5BB's

14 BB's sounds around average for this tourney, so it's not really that bad at all...

NickyOD

I'm not calling. I'm pushing all in or I'm folding. I'm inclined to think folding is the best line here but its a dificult one to evaluate.

marius

ocallagh wrote:

Early position yes... but UTG only has 5BBs. His range is huge and by the sounds of it UTG+1's range is quite big too. It is only costing 6BBs to win 12.5BBs. Definitely not a straight fold.

Don't know that his range is that big - he must be pretty tight to only have 5BB's - a 'normal' player would have pushed ages ago....

@Ste05 - yeah - true, I really have to improve my reading skillz....thought it was 3 and 6 BB's (and conviently ignored SB and BB;) )

@HJ How quickly are the blinds going up? Are you going to be down to 15 BB's soon?

im still leaning towards a fold - but I think it is very tight, I like to think of it in terms of how many pints would I have to have to push here.....probably very few...

connie147

Flat calling is out of the question.Personally,I think its a fold.You say villian1 is a good player but being low stacked he could be moving with any two as could villian2. You might be ahead but your gonna have to get lucky to win the pot .Do you want this "good player" to triple through?
Also, what if one of the blinds wake up with AA or KK, or if one of them is poor enough to call your push with A-K,QQ or JJ. If you fold you remain in 3rd position and are good enough to go on and win,

No HJ,this is not the time and in your heart you know it (IMHO of course).

charlesanto

Fold - because there is two to act behind you.

rogue trader

ocallagh wrote:

Early position yes... but UTG only has 5BBs. His range is huge and by the sounds of it UTG+1's range is quite big too. It is only costing 6BBs to win 12.5BBs. Definitely not a straight fold.

sorry, on reflection, a straight fold is a bit strong. I would begrudgingly fold but be very happy with my decision.

RoundTower

fold but it's v close, call if in the BB.

edit: are there running antes?

El Stuntman

chuck it in the muck and order a cocktail

Hitman Actual

I probably fold this as well; I really dont think you're priced in. Also, marius has a good point about the opponents here potentially having a tighter range, as they've allowed themselves to get so low.

I also don't like the comments about "gambling" here. You either get the money in as a favourite, or not at all. Maybe it would be different if you had, say, 40BBs, but not 20BBs.

Gholimoli

Ste05 wrote:

I think this is very marginal, I'd say you have at least 33% equity against their ranges, and so I suppose it'd depend on how gambly I felt, and how the table was playing, if it was very tight and blinds were easily up for grabs, I'd probably wait, but if blinds were getting defended strongly or I was OOP against a particularly aggressive player, I might take the gamble....

But having said that, I'm a huge gambler when it comes to MTT's and hence I think I'd take the gamble more times than most unless the table was particularly weak. And since this is a freeroll, I'd have thought alot of these players would be looking to just move up the money ladder and surely there's easier chips available later...

EDIT: LOL, I managed to say absolutely nothing there.... hmmm... OK, I push, no hang-on... I fold and wait... OK, finally, I push.

if he has that much equity this is deffo a call IMO

Ste05

Gholimoli wrote:

if he has that much equity this is deffo a call IMO

Well I did some quick PokerStove calcs, and assuming the ranges are UTG (66+ any decent A say A5+ (possibly slightly too wide - but I'd say he might push with an A in this spot??), most if not all broadway... and for the tilt monster similar (possibly slightly wider due to tilt) then it comes to about 33%ish...

ocallagh

lenny_leonard wrote:

I also don't like the comments about "gambling" here.

It's not that easy to get your chips in with a 70-30 or 80-20 at this stage of a tournament. HJ could easily blind away looking for such a spot. If he folds this, blinds out for 2 rounds, blinds increase etc... he could be looking at 50-50 or 40-60 for all his chips soon enough. You definitely need to gamble at some stage and that is one thing that cannot be ignored with the blinds so high.

One major problem is there is no folding equity. FE is huge at this stage of a tourny. Might be better off nicking the blinds 4 times in a row, or re-raising some blind stealers next orbit.

I think this is a really close one.

If 32.5BBs would allow HJ to run over the table then I say fuk it... gamble.

Hitman Actual

ocallagh wrote:

It's not that easy to get your chips in with a 70-30 or 80-20 at this stage of a tournament. HJ could easily blind away looking for such a spot. If he folds this, blinds out for 2 rounds, blinds increase etc... he could be looking at 50-50 or 40-60 for all his chips soon enough. You definitely need to gamble at some stage and that is one thing that cannot be ignored with the blinds so high.

One major problem is there is no folding equity. FE is huge at this stage of a tourny. Might be better off nicking the blinds 4 times in a row, or re-raising some blind stealers next orbit.

I think this is a really close one.

If 32.5BBs would allow HJ to run over the table then I say fuk it... gamble.

That's all fair enough, and there's a lot of sense in these comments, but it's just the idea of calling in what I think is at best a marginal situation that I don't like. As you know I have no problem being the one doing the pushing (my 68 vs your A9 in a EOM FT last year *cough*cough*).

fuzzbox

I just fold.

fuzzbox

Ste05 wrote:

I'd say you have at least 33% equity against their ranges

What do you think their ranges are?

Ste05

fuzzbox wrote:

What do you think their ranges are?

Post #22 above... Very possibly too wide, it was a very quick calc, without too much thought put into it. And obviously only really HJ could answer this. If UTG hadn't been stealing blinds at all and while good(ish) he may not have adjusted properly to the blinds increasing, which would certainly narrow his range substantially. And obviously the Tilting guy, was he tilting by calling All-In's with anything???

Hectorjelly

i actually folded because my initial instinct was - two all ins, must fold AJ. As I clicked fold I realised I was probably making a mistake. I didnt want to state it in the OP but I felt utgs range was literally any 2 cards, many good players fire in all there chips in his spot rather than have to pay the blinds. UTG + 1 was not only a loose player anyway, but had just lost a big pot. Utg has T4s or (similar), UTG + 1 had 66.

Gholimoli

Hectorjelly wrote:

Utg has T4s or (similar), UTG + 1 had 66.

then you should have called:D

rogue trader

Hectorjelly wrote:

i actually folded because my initial instinct was - two all ins, must fold AJ. As I clicked fold I realised I was probably making a mistake. I didnt want to state it in the OP but I felt utgs range was literally any 2 cards, many good players fire in all there chips in his spot rather than have to pay the blinds. UTG + 1 was not only a loose player anyway, but had just lost a big pot. Utg has T4s or (similar), UTG + 1 had 66.

Then you made the right decision. You were behind. UTG also had a live card. If you had have called and SB or BB pushed, how would you feel then?

Hectorjelly

rogue trader wrote:

Then you made the right decision. You were behind. UTG also had a live card. If you had have called and SB or BB pushed, how would you feel then?

if I somehow knew their hole cards I made a mistake in terms of equity. I will win the hand around 40% of the time, yet only contribute something like 30% of the chips.

I dont think the sb or the bb really come into it. One of the joys of poker is someone waking up with a hand behind you. If i push they can only call with AA or KK, and thats something like a 1 in 60 shot, so has no discernable bearing on the maths.

lazlo

Hectorjelly wrote:

i actually folded because my initial instinct was - two all ins, must fold AJ. As I clicked fold I realised I was probably making a mistake. I didnt want to state it in the OP but I felt utgs range was literally any 2 cards, many good players fire in all there chips in his spot rather than have to pay the blinds. UTG + 1 was not only a loose player anyway, but had just lost a big pot. Utg has T4s or (similar), UTG + 1 had 66.

I think you were correct to fold. The fact that theres a string possibility of racing two unknown hands makes this an easy fold.

At this stage of the tournament and with the stack you have you're much better off finding better spots to steal blinds as well as blind-steals.

Hectorjelly

lazlo wrote:

I think you were correct to fold. The fact that theres a string possibility of racing two unknown hands makes this an easy fold.

At this stage of the tournament and with the stack you have you're much better off finding better spots to steal blinds as well as blind-steals.

I stole all the blinds I could, literally noone alive would of stolen more blinds than I did. Losing this hand would have no effect on my blind stealing ability.

Bandana boy

Ste05 wrote:

Well I did some quick PokerStove calcs, and assuming the ranges are UTG (66+ any decent A say A5+ (possibly slightly too wide - but I'd say he might push with an A in this spot??), most if not all broadway... and for the tilt monster similar (possibly slightly wider due to tilt) then it comes to about 33%ish...

33% is a insta call
i think this is closer to 20-25% which means folding is not horrible but i think a call can be justified becasue of the postives of winning outweighing the negatives of losing

fixer

looking back on the results, did your A or J hit?

connie147

fixer wrote:

looking back on the results, did your A or J hit?

I think the obvious answer to this is yes. Hense the post.

rogue trader

and what do we say about results based thinking?

Hectorjelly

no I would of lost

fixer

great fold then.

I like results, and think about them a lot!

Ste05

fixer wrote:

great fold then.

I like results, and think about them a lot!

Had HJ called the results would have been different, that's one of the beautiful things about on-line Poker, not only are results not worth talking about, because each action taken changes what the results would have been (The RNG). So if you fold 49o and the flop comes 499, you can be safe in the knowledge that, had you called, the flop would have been different.

All you look for is situations that would have been possible, the only thing that remains constant are the hole cards of your opponents. If he had called, the difference in time between his fold and what would have been a push (possibly only 0.0000001 of a second) earlier or later would have changed the RNG for the hand and hence the flop, etc.

Rnger

Ste05 wrote:

Had HJ called the results would have been different, that's one of the beautiful things about on-line Poker, not only are results not worth talking about, because each action taken changes what the results would have been (The RNG). So if you fold 49o and the flop comes 499, you can be safe in the knowledge that, had you called, the flop would have been different.

All you look for is situations that would have been possible, the only thing that remains constant are the hole cards of your opponents. If he had called, the difference in time between his fold and what would have been a push (possibly only 0.0000001 of a second) earlier or later would have changed the RNG for the hand and hence the flop, etc.

so your saying online poker is rigged after all!

Ste05

Rnger wrote:

so your saying online poker is rigged after all!

LOL... Quite the opposite infact ... because each player's actions and timing affects the cards dealt, it's impossible for anyone to know what's coming out on the flop, including the Poker Site...

Now Back on Topic!!! :mad: :mad:

Scouser in Dub

Ste05 wrote:

Now Back on Topic!!! :mad: :mad:

No, why is it not possible to just randomise the shuffle so that a deck is created from top to bottom prior to the deal of the hole cards and so then the hand will play out as is anyway?

Is the rng merely to heighten security with every action varying the fortcoming cards?

Ste05

Scouser in Dub wrote:

No, why is it not possible to just randomise the shuffle so that a deck is created from top to bottom prior to the deal of the hole cards and so then the hand will play out as is anyway?

Is the rng merely to heighten security with every action varying the fortcoming cards?

Basically yes, it's a security measure, if the deck was pre-determined, it'd leave them open to hacking, etc. imagine if you could somehow find out what the flop turn and river was going to be!!! With the RNG (that most sites use) the deck isn't determined until the split second the last action is taken. It's like as though the deck is constantly being shuffled and the after millisecond the BB presses Check the shuffle stops, the flop is dealt, and the shuffle begins again.

Other sites, such as Party also use the processes running on each computer to help with their RNG, but fcuk me if I can explain that in any more depth.

Bandana boy

Scouser in Dub wrote:

Is the rng merely to heighten security with every action varying the fortcoming cards?

it is not the action that varys the cards it is the timing of the rng running

Scouser in Dub

Cheers gents

ianmc38

Did you win?

Flushdraw

The link below has a couple of good articles on how sites generate shuffled decks and how a couple of hackers managed to crack the codes..

http://pokersafety.blogspot.com/