BUBBLE $400 rebuy

sligobhoy

me 5k
villian 1 6k
villian 2 5.2k

5 players
blinds 200/400

dealt QQ make it 1200. villian 1( very loose aggressive has shown down some bad hands) makes it 2800 villian 3 pushes for 5.2k.

call or fold

Hitman Actual

I think it all depends on what you think about villain 3. Is he only re-raising AI with a very tight range (QQ+, AK), seeing as it's the bubble? Or is he trying to isolate the LAG with a slightly larger range (maybe TT+, AQ+)? Does he think villain 1 will fold with half his stack in the middle? Or is he even thinking about any of this, and just sees a decent hand and pushes regardless.

Villain 3's range is crucial. QQ in a three-way AI should be around 45% normally (maybe even 50%). But a tight villain 3 pushing on the bubble could make this a very marginal call.

Edit: Will villain 1 definately call? If so, then someone is out (or as good as), so maybe fold like a little girl and at least make the money.

Samba

Five players left, so five handed?

Whats the average stack and how many chips does the chip leader have?

also what's the payout structure?

I think you are looking at a coin flip here, especially if it's five handed, your best hope is they both have a similar holding of AK-AJ in which case this greatly it greatly improves your chances.

spectre

What is also important is how they perceive you at the table. What is your standard raising range here?

If it is quite tight, Villain 2 will be aware of this and would need a premium hand to make this move.

If your riasing range is wide then it's probably a call.

sligobhoy

Samba wrote:

Five players left, so five handed?

Whats the average stack and how many chips does the chip leader have?

also what's the payout structure?

AVG stack 7k
chip leader 8.9k

payout structure
$4600
$2700
$1700
$1000

sligobhoy

lenny_leonard wrote:

I think it all depends on what you think about villain 3. Is he only re-raising AI with a very tight range (QQ+, AK), seeing as it's the bubble? Or is he trying to isolate the LAG with a slightly larger range (maybe TT+, AQ+)? Does he think villain 1 will fold with half his stack in the middle? Or is he even thinking about any of this, and just sees a decent hand and pushes regardless.

Villain 3's range is crucial. QQ in a three-way AI should be around 45% normally (maybe even 50%). But a tight villain 3 pushing on the bubble could make this a very marginal call.

Edit: Will villain 1 definately call? If so, then someone is out (or as good as), so maybe fold like a little girl and at least make the money.

good advice leonard. villian three had to be pushing with a good hand here as he had been very conservative throughout the game and even before i eventually called i suspected i was beat. im very disappointed i couldnt fold in this spot as i was nearly sure when i called i was beat but was just hoping that the two guys might have AK. If i had the time bank like they have on pokerstars i would have been able to fold here. 15 seconds to act and ure looking at QQ is a hard fold would u agree

Hitman Actual

I've just seen from Samba's post that it's 5-handed, which makes it a much harder fold. I just saw €400 rebuy in the subject line, and assumed the bubble would be in the 15-20 players left range.

So, much harder fold than I first though.

Hitman Actual

OK, here's a crude mathematical way of looking at it, which may not be accurate enough (plus I usually get these wrong ).

There's 25.1K chips in play. If you fold, you have 4.8K left, which equals a ~19% 'share' of the €10K prize pool.

If we call and lose we get nothing.

If we call and win our stack is ~15K which is a 60% 'share' of the prize pool:
Assume LAG range is 66+, A9s, AT+, KQ. Also, assume that he calls (this is debatable).

Assume tight villain 3 range is QQ+, AK.
We win here ~35% of the time, so our 'share' is 0.35*0.6 = ~21%.

Against a less tight villain 3, assume range is TT+, AQ+.
We win here ~43% of the time, so our 'share' is 0.43*0.6 = ~26%.

So against looser villains, tend towards calling. Against tight villains it's marginal.

Of course, if you fold, you're guaranteed €1K, but if you call and win you have a great shot at €4.6K.

Samba

Fold for 1k is quite tempting as the chip lead is not far off and you are still in with a shout to go on and win it.

It was a tough spot to deal with.

sligobhoy

the result of the hand was in deed astonishing for a 5 handed game. i decided to call.Villain 1 has KK villian 2 has AA and im up against it with QQ. flop is 333 which is incredable. If only i could learn to fold QQ on the bubble. i ended up finishing 5th and slightly pissed off with myself that i couldnt let the hand go. think back i could easily have folded and indeed finished 2nd as the next hand the two big stacks went at it and two hands later it was over.

Would the majority of you have folded or called in this position?

cardshark202

I would have called and called pretty quickly, especially seeing as its 5 handed.

Rnger

I'd only do what villian 2/3 did with QQ+, you mention he's been very conservative throughtout . Considering what you have, I think your miles behind

sligobhoy

Rnger wrote:

I'd only do what villian 2/3 did with QQ+, you mention he's been very conservative throughtout . Considering what you have, I think your miles behind

yeah true. however i think with only 10-15 seconds to respond QQ is still a very hard lay down. although it would have been the right one