Using the odds?

connie147

In the support event in Cork last weekend (€250) F/O, I had decided to play this tournament aggressiovely as I had just had a tough slog in the main event. Started pretty well and I had doubled my starting stack after 5 levels from 6,000 to 12,000.(150 players, 30min clock.)
Blinds are 150-300 with an ante of 25, folded all round to c/o who limps,Im on the button with Ah-10h so I make it 1,300 to go. SB calls BB folds and C/O calls. Flop is Q-J-3 rainbow(1 heart), both players check to me and I bet out 2450. SB folds and C/O pushes for an extra 3,400.(c/o is a good player(english pro) and his range here is Q-8,Q-9,Q-10,Q-J or K-10 or 9-10. Cant put him on a pure bluff as he hasnt enough to scare me off. So I reckon I have 7 outs to win (any K for the gutshot and any Ace for top pair.)and if hes open ended,Im already ahead. I have to put another 3,400 in to win 13,000 pot. If I win the pot I'll have approx 19k, if I call and lose I'll be back to 5k, if I fold now I'll have 8k. What do I do? Do the odds dictate all here or does keeping a playable stack become more important.
(

Poker & Pints

I guess I look at it like this:

Call&Lose = 17x BB left; Fold = 27x BB left; Call&Win = 60x BB now

He limped, but called a ~5x raise. QJs or 33 to do this, imo most likely. But could have JJ or QQ. You have his range as some other stuff, but just doesnt seem likely to me. So I think you are well behind and drawing to only the K, runner runner flush or trips(which may not win if he has the set already). If he is open ended your ahead, but not by much.

Doesn't seem a good call to me. Interested to hear others!

bops

Firstly I think that if you call the pot will be over 16k

therefore fold: 8k - average stack
Call & loose: 5k - under pressure
Call & win: 21k - nice!

I'd agree with you and guess by his push he is open ended or top pair at best, so you are probably right with your 7 outs.

that gives you probably a 4/1 shot at winning and you're getting 6/1 on your 3k

...the question really is are you prepaired to gamble?!?!

(I know your rep connie )


...personaly i would - if you win you're well set up and if you loose - you're still in with a shout

gl

nicnicnic

if your right and are drawing to 7 cards i make you a little over 29% to hit which translate to between 9/4 and 5/2 your getting just under 4/1 if you call for the 3400 so purely on the odds its a call. Add to this the fact that he could also be drawing and i thinks its a call. Although i hate making it

Dev see another munsterman who understands those weird odds thing

connie147

Poker & Pints wrote:

I guess I look at it like this:

Call&Lose = 17x BB left; Fold = 27x BB left; Call&Win = 60x BB now

He limped, but called a ~5x raise. QJs or 33 to do this, imo most likely. But could have JJ or QQ. You have his range as some other stuff, but just doesnt seem likely to me. So I think you are well behind and drawing to only the K, runner runner flush or trips(which may not win if he has the set already). If he is open ended your ahead, but not by much.

Doesn't seem a good call to me. Interested to hear others!

No way he has QQ or JJ. This player doesnt limp from c/o with hands like that.
33 is a possibility all right

BrokenArrows

connie147 wrote:

In the support event in Cork last weekend (€250) F/O, I had decided to play this tournament aggressiovely as I had just had a tough slog in the main event. Started pretty well and I had doubled my starting stack after 5 levels from 6,000 to 12,000.(150 players, 30min clock.)
Blinds are 150-300 with an ante of 25, folded all round to c/o who limps,Im on the button with Ah-10h so I make it 1,300 to go. SB calls BB folds and C/O calls. Flop is Q-J-3 rainbow(1 heart), both players check to me and I bet out 2450. SB folds and C/O pushes for an extra 3,400.(c/o is a good player(english pro) and his range here is Q-8,Q-9,Q-10,Q-J or K-10 or 9-10. Cant put him on a pure bluff as he hasnt enough to scare me off. So I reckon I have 7 outs to win (any K for the gutshot and any Ace for top pair.)and if hes open ended,Im already ahead. I have to put another 3,400 in to win 13,000 pot. If I win the pot I'll have approx 19k, if I call and lose I'll be back to 5k, if I fold now I'll have 8k. What do I do? Do the odds dictate all here or does keeping a playable stack become more important.
(

Nothing to say about the hand but is there any chance you could start using some paragraphs in your posts.

Ive noticed it in alot of your long posts. It makes it very hard to read and see whats going on.

Different paragraph for every stage of the hand sorta stuff. Makes it easier for everyone to see whats going on in the hand.

bops

nicnicnic wrote:

over 29% to hit which translate to between 9/4 and 5/2 your getting just under 4/1

9/4...7/1...all the same - geeek!!!
(wexford math slightly different than everyone elses)

Samba

BrokenArrows wrote:

Nothing to say about the hand but is there any chance you could start using some paragraphs in your posts.

Ive noticed it in alot of your long posts. It makes it very hard to read and see whats going on.

Different paragraph for every stage of the hand sorta stuff. Makes it easier for everyone to see whats going on in the hand.

You would call then?

connie147

BrokenArrows wrote:

Nothing to say about the hand but is there any chance you could start using some paragraphs in your posts.

Ive noticed it in alot of your long posts. It makes it very hard to read and see whats going on.

Different paragraph for every stage of the hand sorta stuff. Makes it easier for everyone to see whats going on in the hand.

No problem.
But really, it plays out just as I wrote.
Starting new paragraphs doesnt change the hand.
But I get your drift.
Connie

eggie

id fold this, dont think A T is strong enough here.

fuzzbox

What sort of hands does an English pro open limp on the cO with ?

AA or KK ?
Is that the totality of it?


In tourneys - I find that its not often that some1 CRAI with a draw in this size of pot, with these depth of stacks. Much more likely is that he open-shoves. CRAI usually ties you to the pot with any sort of reasonable hand, and a draw would prefer you to fold.

Thus, its more likely to be a made hand, and that gives you much less outs.

I like a flop check.

connie147

Well,he had Q-9,I got no help from the board and my stack was decimated.
I know I had the odds to call,but the question remains, was I right to call in that position?

fuzzbox

connie147 wrote:

Well,he had Q-9,I got no help from the board and my stack was decimated.
I know I had the odds to call,but the question remains, was I right to call in that position?

So he's not a very good pro then.

cardshark202

fuzzbox wrote:

So he's not a very good pro then.

I think abolutely terrible is more appropriate.

Hectorjelly

Loads of threads on these boards start with a descripion of a player as good or great/solid and then describe how they managed to completely misplay every street. This guy at least only made terrible preflop decisions.

bops

personally i think "an english pro" playing in the last & smallest event in the festival is much harder to put on a range of hands than in the ME for eg.

...and therefore makes the call even HARDER - u could be up against anything connie

im just guessin - you called and lost - he had Q 10 suited!!

bops

sorry connie

Q9 - should pay attention!

ul m8 cya in citywest

bops

connie147 wrote:

I know I had the odds to call,but the question remains, was I right to call in that position?

...odds wise yep
...tournament wise nope

i'm very helpful

i guess it's not a call you personaly would make that often? - nor me!

Poker Anto

Dont mind the odds. No need to bother wit dem. All you need is balls to play this game. Balls and heart. Dont be afraid to put your chips in. Thats how you play poker.

nicnicnic

connie147 wrote:

Well,he had Q-9,I got no help from the board and my stack was decimated.
I know I had the odds to call,but the question remains, was I right to call in that position?

well you call when your a 4/1 dog and getting 11/4 with JJ and two outs so i dont see why you wouldnt call here getting 4/1 an 9/4 shot and seven outs:p.


team waterford will be meeting tonight and the main strateby i will be suggestibg is to keep raising the kerrymen