i did like this flop a second ago

Bandana boy

2-4 6 max NLhE PPP

So table is atrocious and i have been ripping it when new player sits down buying in 100 (1/3)

So first hand he posts UTG and then checks couple of limpers to me on button I make it 12 with 75 new player and muppet call
Pot 44
Flop 732 Checked to me and i bet 25 new player calls idiot folds
pot 94
turn 4 checked i lead for 65 which set villain all in he insta calls with 222 and i dont improve

very next hand i get J8s on CO Limped to me i make it 13 to play 3 callers including our villain in BB
Pot 54

Flop J96 2 diamonds i have diamonds before i can fully admire such a beautiful flop villain open pushs for 199 eek folded to me can anyone find a call here ?

What do i have to put him on to call

Gholimoli

nah i think the bet is just too big.
if you put him on the below range:
99,66,J9s+,T8s,J9o+(this means JT,JQ etc) then your 55/45 behind.
if you include AA,KK,QQ (which is not likely) you catch up a bit but still behind.
you will only get ahead if you include hands like AT,AQ,AK of dimonds or two dimond cards that have not made a pair.
im interested to know with what holding he is making this play?
i may have just called expecting to lose here more oftne that win just to satisfy my curiosity .

cardshark202

We have top pair and a flush draw. I'm calling pretty quick.

EDIT: After re-evaluating the situation via pokerstove, maybe I'm not calling.

Norwich Fan Rob

he has no particluar reason to put u on a flush draw or a str8 draw, his bet would be strange with a set, he could easily have a big draw himself.
id say in the long run, theres not a huge diff ev wise between a call and a fold here, theres a lot of things he could have, some we beat, some are 50/50, some we are way behind, also some we are behind but outdraw.

in fact, i cant think of any we are way behind that he would play like this.

Gholimoli

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

he has no particluar reason to put u on a flush draw or a str8 draw, his bet would be strange with a set, he could easily have a big draw himself.
id say in the long run, theres not a huge diff ev wise between a call and a fold here, theres a lot of things he could have, some we beat, some are 50/50, some we are way behind, also some we are behind but outdraw.

in fact, i cant think of any we are way behind that he would play like this.

i doubt we are fav often against his range here.
J96 flop two tone is always scary as its full of draws so he can safely assume some one is on a draw to lets protect against it.

side note: ROb the redirect to your blog doesnt work for me.
whats the new address?

Norwich Fan Rob

we raised pre, its not that likely we have a draw, i never open push for 3 times the pot here with a set if im villian.

my blog is temporarily down, until i sort a couple of things out, then it will be back up, in a week or so maybe.

fuzzbox

Hand 1 - you desrved what you got for raising short stacks with crap hands, then firing multiple barrels on rag flops against said shorties, when ur prolly screwed.

Hand 2 - call.
He slowplays big hands, we could easily have the best hand here.

Ste05

I also call hand 2. Why on earth would he push with a set, we've seen history that he likes to call down with sets, So I'd put him on TP(possibly better kicker) or a draw.

I made a similar call last night with middle pair and won the pot. (Gotta love results based thinking....)

Bandana boy

Gholimoli wrote:

i may have just called expecting to lose here more oftne that win just to satisfy my curiosity .

I felt the only hand i am really in big trouble against is a set and we saw him let me hang myself with a set the previous hand
plus if he flopped a set against my top pair and a draw 2 hands in a row his first two hands at the table well lets say its not likely

So now i am not up against set i thought i am somewhere beteen 40-48% if behind and there is the chance it is a draw as well which depending on which draw i could be 4-1 on plus like G-man above i was really curious as to what he had and as long as it is not a set i fancy my chances of catching him later on playing like this if not now

So i call and he throws up AJ which despite me turning a t to increase my outs to 18 i miss

And to rub it in he sits out next hand and leaves

We all happy with logic ?

Gholimoli

Bandana boy wrote:

I felt the only hand i am really in big trouble against is a set and we saw him let me hang myself with a set the previous hand
plus if he flopped a set against my top pair and a draw 2 hands in a row his first two hands at the table well lets say its not likely

So now i am not up against set i thought i am somewhere beteen 40-48% if behind and there is the chance it is a draw as well which depending on which draw i could be 4-1 on plus like G-man above i was really curious as to what he had and as long as it is not a set i fancy my chances of catching him later on playing like this if not now

So i call and he throws up AJ which despite me turning a t to increase my outs to 18 i miss

And to rub it in he sits out next hand and leaves

We all happy with logic ?

this hand i dont think you would be making a big mistake either way.
as said if you called u were never gonna be that much behind and if you folded you were never folding a much better hand .