A worse flop for aces - RR pot 3/6NL

valor

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($600)
UTG ($1291.23)
MP ($598.02)
Button ($942.70)
Hero ($588)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A. Hero posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, MP raises to $22, 1 fold, Hero (poster) raises to $80, 1 fold, MP calls $61.

Flop: ($172) K, J, Q(2 players)
Hero ??


Villain plays 40/5 over 100 hands. What is the best plan here? I think checking the flop is the way forward, but how do I proceed based on what he does and various turn cards if he checks behind?

Hectorjelly

Tough hand. I think I would bet the flop and see what happens, anyone that is 40/5 is probably a loose fish.

ianmc38

Nice flop.

Flushdraw

ianmc38 wrote:

Nice flop.

Flop would scare the bejesus out of me based on the betting pattern. I cant imagine the villian raising, then calling a huge rearaise with anything other than the other AA, KK or maybe QQ or JJ. Any other hand and he is a fool but saying that, i'd still have a bet at the flop but be prepared to let it go if i was reraised

ianmc38

I'd get sick on my keyboard if i saw that flop

Flushdraw

At least there was nothing soooted on it!

valor

Hectorjelly wrote:

Tough hand. I think I would bet the flop and see what happens, anyone that is 40/5 is probably a loose fish.

I bet 130 and he calls. Turn 4. Check fold?

I bet 130 and he min raises?

I bet 130 and he pushes?

Hectorjelly

valor wrote:

I bet 130 and he calls. Turn 4. Check fold?

I bet 130 and he min raises?

I bet 130 and he pushes?

1 check and see what he does

2 probably fold

3 probably call

fuzzbox

I check/fold the flop.

5% pfr = not fun for us on that board.

If I bet the flop and get called, then I c/f the turn.

*Counterfeit*

Bet the bejesus out of it. You are in front.

Marq

*Counterfeit* wrote:

Bet the bejesus out of it. You are in front.

What do you do if, like most people, you are not psychic?

Hectorjelly

Marq wrote:

What do you do if, like most people, you are not psychic?

you see he has aces right? overpair to the ENTIRE board

*Counterfeit*

He also has the board.

ianmc38

Lol.

Marq

Oh sorry I missed that he had aces.

Daithio

I think you have to bet it to find out where you stand. It's a horrible flop but he could easily have a small pair / suited connectors hoping to bust aces, and a check here STINKS of weakness IMO. You're essentially giving up the pot with a check. Go with HJ's line I reckon. But I'd fold to a push over the top of 130.

valor

A check here doesnt indicate weakness at all imo, i could be checking any of the sets, ak or even 109s or a10 if i decided to repop them

BrokenArrows

it may not stink of weakness but it will entice him to make a stab at the pot and when he does you will have no extra information on him.

Hectorjelly

BrokenArrows wrote:

it may not stink of weakness but it will entice him to make a stab at the pot and when he does you will have no extra information on him.

him putting money into the pot with a bad hand is a good thing

valor

Anyway - results

I checked and he ebt 150. The large amount in relation to pot size [in a rr pot] and his bet timing led me to think he wasnt that strong. I CRAI and he calls with AK, I win.

fuzzbox

Daithio wrote:

I think you have to bet it to find out where you stand. It's a horrible flop but he could easily have a small pair / suited connectors hoping to bust aces, and a check here STINKS of weakness IMO. You're essentially giving up the pot with a check. Go with HJ's line I reckon. But I'd fold to a push over the top of 130.

While trying not to sound all superior:

I bet you play a lot of tourneys.

fuzzbox

valor wrote:

Anyway - results

I checked and he ebt 150. The large amount in relation to pot size [in a rr pot] and his bet timing led me to think he wasnt that strong. I CRAI and he calls with AK, I win.

Nice for you that he called the CRAI.

I think c/c, c/c is better, if you think you are good.

Just cos CRAI makes him fold all bluffs, and lets face it, AK and bluffs are the only hands you make money from on this board.

Daithio

fuzzbox wrote:

While trying not to sound all superior:

I bet you play a lot of tourneys.

Yes I do. It would be nice if you could give an explanation as to why you think my line here is wrong. And I do think a check stinks of weakness, what hands are you going to check on that flop if you've hit it apart from AT? Checking a set or two pair here IMO is a bad play.

fuzzbox

Daithio wrote:

Yes I do. It would be nice if you could give an explanation as to why you think my line here is wrong. And I do think a check stinks of weakness, what hands are you going to check on that flop if you've hit it apart from AT? Checking a set or two pair here IMO is a bad play.

I didnt say anything other than I bet you play a lot of tourneys.

.

Your reasoning sounded like the reasoning of a guy who plays a lot of tourneys.

In a tourney - the pot is often v.valuable and winning it is valuable, but moreover, winning it without showdown is even MORE valuable.

Thus, you are more likely to say something like - "checking is giving up the pot".

But checking is not folding. Checking, is checking.

Anyway - the reasons that I would consider a check are

1. he only raises 5% of hands - so he has a really tight raising range. Then we reraise, then he calls, then the flop comes KQJ. His range crushes ours

2. he is more likely to bet with a worse hand, than he is to call. If he has 88 for example - he sure as hell wont call a bet. In fact, only AK could potentially call us if we bet, and even then AK might fold. If we make a bet, such that we only get called by better hands, then we are bluffing. Our hand is better as a bluff catcher, than a bluff-maker ... since he will never fold any better hands than ours.

3. If we bet and he calls - we are none the wiser - yet we face the prospect of either A. shoving the turn drawing to 6 outs, B. check/folding the best hand on the turn, but if we check then we might get some more info by his bet/check ... or might get more info on the turn in response to a bet there.

Daithio

Yeah I see your point. I didn't really understand the 5/40 thing. It's unlikely he's been raising with a small pocket pair or suited connectors then. Maybe checking is the correct play so. But what's your plan for the rest of the hand? If he bets, you flat call, depending on the size of the bet of course. Then check fold to a strong turn bet?

fuzzbox

Daithio wrote:

Yeah I see your point. I didn't really understand the 5/40 thing. It's unlikely he's been raising with a small pocket pair or suited connectors then. Maybe checking is the correct play so. But what's your plan for the rest of the hand? If he bets, you flat call, depending on the size of the bet of course. Then check fold to a strong turn bet?

40 means he sees a flop with 40% of the hands he gets - so he is loose.
5 means he raises preflop with 5% of the hands he gets - so he does not raise very often - especially compared with the amount of hands he plays.

So - he is loose passive.

Since he raised preflop - we can narrow his range to the top 5% of holdings - prolly TT+ and AK/AQ.
Since we reraised - he prolly drops AQ, and calls with the rest, although he might even fold AK.

Now, since the flop comes KQJ - and his range is TT+/AK .... this is a spot where we are way ahead or way behind, and its more likely that we are way behind.

If he folds AK to a bet, then we have a disasterous situation.

I would prolly just check/fold and move on, but I can understand check/call, check/call.

valor

Yes my line sucked if I thought he was weak, I played the flop badly

RoundTower

we do have six outs against a set, so calling a flop bet can't be too bad. I can't see check/fold the flop, I think I would bet/fold and check the turn if called, or check/call/check turn.