Tuesday

scojones

York.

1.45 Ti Adora
John Egan takes the mount again on a horse that would have given Young Mick a better run for it's money had it not drifted for Ryan Moore in the closing stages. Doubts over whether this trip is it's favourite but Egan has 2 wins and a 2nd place from five rides on Ti Adora. Expect it to be held up until the 4f marker where Egan will let loose and hopefully get another win over this distance on it.

2.15 The Whistling Teal
Steve Drowne's latest win on The Whistling Teal has more than meets the eye after being hampered when being asked to go in pursuit from around 5f out at Chester. It is exposed to nearly every going imaginable and Good to Soft is definitely it's favoured ground, which is good news as long as nothing changes over the next 15 hours or so at Ayr. The oldest horse in the race who demands respect if the Chester run can be repeated here today on very similar terms.
Should give Sergeant Cecil a run for it's money.

2.50 Soapy Danger
Anything can win this competitive race where I expect both of Stoute's runners to flop. A very bold statement to be making against a horse who demands respect (papal bull) but is untested over this going which prompts me to look elsewhere. Stoute's other entry who has yet to put a foot wrong under Winston won't be favoured by the going either, and will need to improve somewhat to win this. Red Rocks is possibly unsuited by 1m4f, which brings me to Soapy Danger, who has an excellent record with Darley (5 wins and 2 places from 7 races) and will not mind the going or the trip today. Definitely the one to beat.

3.25 Cherry Mix
Goldolphin's stable is hard to oppose at present when it appears that things are finally coming right after a very unfortunate season. Might prefer an extra 2f but Frankie will make sure to have it at the front from early on in a bid to make all the running. Frankie needs to put in a brilliant ride to keep Dylan Thomas at bay

4.35 First Mate
Mark Johnson has two runners in an attempt to take this race for two years running. First Mate is fairly unexposed, but when Johnson puts Guillambert (who snatched Palo Verde's only victory) on board First Mate it gives us an insight into which of these two must be going well at home. Alot of uncertainties in this race, and it's not clear how First Mate will take to the going or being upped in class so I will only be having a cautious bet.

5.10 River Falcon
River Falcon is lightly raced this year and put up a great effort back in April after taking a break from the previous October to come second Welse Emperor who won a competitive race at Newbury on the 19th of August of this year - which suggests the form is there for River Falcon to run a good race, despite the high draw. Has experience running over this trip and going and is not too badly handicapped if it can reproduce early efforts in 2005.


Lets hope the going stays Good to Soft!

Corben Dallas

nice post Sjones.

Cherry Mix acted as pacemaker for Electrucionist in the big race won by Hurriance Run (Electric close up 2nd (-Hearts cry 3rd))
this good or bad? (that he was only pacemaker) how much do u rate against Godauplin's other superstars (Discreet Cat etc)

scojones

Corben Dallas wrote:

nice post Sjones.

Cherry Mix acted as pacemaker for Electrucionist in the big race won by Hurriance Run (Electric close up 2nd (-Hearts cry 3rd))
this good or bad? (that he was only pacemaker) how much do u rate against Godauplin's other superstars (Discreet Cat etc)

Cheers mate. I think it's a good thing to be honest with you Corben. If you watch the race again Cherry Mix lead to about the 1.5f marker or just inside it before fading. Today's race is 2f shorter than that trip so judging from that it should have enough to make all the running and stay on strong at the end. It definitely needs a repeat performance though, if it's at it's best it can win this. If you look at it's York run in May where Godolphin tried the same tactics employed for Ascot (make all the running for The Geezer) Cherry Mix wasn't headed until the 3f pole and that was a 1m 6f race - and that was on soft ground.

Now sure, you can't just look at it like that, I mean nobody wants to lay down a challenge to the pace maker until the final 2 or 3f anyway, but for the majority of it's previous runs where it was the pacemaker it did not weaken until it was well past 10f, so if it can make all the running and not weaken it has a cracking chance.

That's the way I'm looking at the race today anyway. Am I off my trolley?

ChuckProphet

Not usually an e/w backer but I'm going for a couple of outsiders today.

2.50 Championship Point e/w
Hasn't run since 11th in the derby which is a bit of a worry but it's an open race and I'm willing to take on the top two.

3.25 Laverock e/w
I think Dylan Thomas is bad value at 11/10 so I'm going for the French horse at 12-1 e/w. Has some good form behind pride and hurricane run which puts him up there.

Enforcer is a N/R..only 7 runners now. Gonna change to a Dylan Thomas/Laverock reverse forecast.

fr wishy washy

sjones wrote:

Cheers mate. I think it's a good thing to be honest with you Corben. If you watch the race again Cherry Mix lead to about the 1.5f marker or just inside it before fading. Today's race is 2f shorter than that trip so judging from that it should have enough to make all the running and stay on strong at the end. It definitely needs a repeat performance though, if it's at it's best it can win this. If you look at it's York run in May where Godolphin tried the same tactics employed for Ascot (make all the running for The Geezer) Cherry Mix wasn't headed until the 3f pole and that was a 1m 6f race - and that was on soft ground.

Now sure, you can't just look at it like that, I mean nobody wants to lay down a challenge to the pace maker until the final 2 or 3f anyway, but for the majority of it's previous runs where it was the pacemaker it did not weaken until it was well past 10f, so if it can make all the running and not weaken it has a cracking chance.

That's the way I'm looking at the race today anyway. Am I off my trolley?

I think its at least an excellent trade as the price is bound to shorten later as the "Frankie factor" kicks in about an hour before the race,price currently about 8/1.I forecast about 6/1 -13/2 at the off.

fade2black

I don't think there's such a thing as the Frankie Factor on a godolphin horse to be honest. The Frankie Factor is reserved for Monday nights at Windsor. The horse will probably go off at around 6-1 on its own merits.

I have to say I was kinda drawn to Cherry Mix myself when I looked at the race. Really seems to come into his own at this time of the year. Dylan Thomas is good, but he's not sensational. The pace of the derby this year left a lot of people wondering about the reliability of the form. Another, more important point though is that Dylan Thomas is a much better horse when he's running on a right handed track, as he showed to great effect in the Irish Derby. York, as we know, is a left handed track. Also, he doesn't like it too soft so if it's raining over there now, with the ground already described as good to soft...then there's another cause for concern. It's pretty easy to back a favourite and not so easy to go against it...but that seems to be what we're all doing...so...good luck to us I guess!

In the 2:50 I have to question why Red Rocks is 5-1 and Fire and Rain, 9-1. Okay so Fire and Rain has only had one run, against red rock's 7....but in that one run, he beat Red Rocks by 6 lengths. Okay so that was in September 2005 and we would have liked to see another run first but this is an O Brien horse and he's definitely going to have him fit. Lets just forget, like silly people, that he hasn't had a run in almost a year. Let's have a look at this simple bit of form. Papal Bull is fav for this race, beat Red Rocks by just a neck las time. Fire and Rain beat Red Rocks by 6 lengths. Of course Red Rocks improved since then...but he was having his second run when Fire and Rain bet him...surely Fire and Rain is entitled to improve also?

2:15

There's no Yeats in this field so the clear form choice (on that goodwood run) is Tungsten Strike. His nearest rival last time was Sergeant Cecil whom he beat by over a length. The weights are the same so you'd hope the form could be upheld there.

fr wishy washy

Any "TV race" with Dettori in it nearly always ends up with his mount contractiing in price (like Ruby over here)just before the off -thats all I meant.

fade2black

Aside from that. How do you rate him as a jockey?

scojones

fade2black wrote:

Aside from that. How do you rate him as a jockey?

I think he's the best jockey there is. He's no Lester Piggott, but he is my favourite by a long shot.

fade2black

sjones wrote:

I think he's the best jockey there is. He's no Lester Piggott, but he is my favourite by a long shot.

He's good but he's not in Fallon's league.

fr wishy washy

I think that they (KF & FD) are both top notch Jockeys with very different styles and I think its a bit harsh to say that FD is not in the same league.

ChuckProphet

fade2black wrote:

He's good but he's not in Fallon's league.

I'd prefer Fallon on my side than Detorri.

masterK

1:45 Boring I know but London Express is really hard to get away from, he's been running with credit on fast ground but is really at his best on a slower surface, his record on good to soft or slower is 1st of 10, 2nd of 21 and 2nd of 11. Never really got going last time out prior to that he chased home his well handicapped stablemate Road to Love who has won again since. He races off the same mark today.

I've had a saver on Purple Moon at 12/1 on Betfair who could really be anything but judging by a form line throught Senor Dali he comes out very closely matched with London Express. I'd expect him to handle the ground, his high draw will be the biggest issue

2:15 At 11/1 I'm prepard to take an each way chance on Franklins Gardens. I'm obviously concerned but his long absense but has ran well fresh on several occasions in the past. Won last years Group 2 Yorkshire cup here and will be suited by the ground. I won't back him though if he drifts a lot before the off.

2:50 As Fade quite rightly points out Fire and Rain is overpriced considering his form with Red Rocks, add to that the fact Red Rocks is weighted to reverse placings with Papal Bull he is a decent each way proposition, I've taken 11/4 on him to place.

I don't think he'll have the beating of Soapy Dancer though who has done nothing but improve this year and is a real St. Leger chance. He's the sort of horse who never gives up, you'll always get a run for you money from him. The ground shouldn't be an issue and I can see his stamina seeing him home today. His prominent racing style will be well suited to York.

5:10 At 25/1 I couldn't resist an small each way bet on Tony The Tap in conditions he should relist. Softish ground over 6 furlongs at York usually means you want to drawn down the middle so berth 9 of 20 looks ideal. He rarely runs a bad race and with 4 places I can see him running into one.

Corben Dallas

145 York
Lot of quality/value in this race, i'd agree with the TiAdora E/w call as in SJ post likes big fields, gets up the business end.
Another one for E/w value is Fort Churchill, savage horse, gen HAS to have a say in the result, gets up and will be on the premises at teh finish, off a nice weight, this should def place 14-20's. >value
(maybe do a both of these to place)
2.15 York
interesting comments bout Fire and rain, but i'd would be goin with Papal Bull to win this, i would be super confient if Fallon on baord but should nick it

scojones

Ti Adora ran a cracker after being held up in the rear and being let fly from about 3 out to grab a place.

fade2black

2 great picks MasterK...Kudos.

The jock

No................. how unlucky am i>Had big bet on a dettori doubles trebles 1st race beat on the line @ a16/1 wins second race @11/4 and caught on the line on redrocks @7/2.

fade2black

Now now The Jock....

Bateman

At a shade of odds-on, I am going to lay a bit of Dylan in the Juddmonte, and have a bit of Blue Monday for a place. A lot of people I know have rowed in behind Cherry Mix, but I've resisted.

imalegend

i have backed mr thomas..i belive he is one of the best 3 years olds around so hopefully he will prove it today.

scargill

I've backed Cherry Mix at 3/1 w/o Dylan Thomas. Will love the ground and is dropping back in trip. fingers crossed.

scojones

That lucky winning stall eh? hehe. Very good win by Notnowcato. I was right about the flops, papal bull and dylan thomas, but not about who would take it over from them. Typical! I must start looking into this laying lark.

ChuckProphet

no luck today...damn

Bateman

Bateman wrote:

At a shade of odds-on, I am going to lay a bit of Dylan in the Juddmonte, and have a bit of Blue Monday for a place. A lot of people I know have rowed in behind Cherry Mix, but I've resisted.

How did the race pan out? Did Cherry Mix set the pace?

wb

I fell into an old trap today.

I had Dylan Thomas backed in the Irish Derby and had a nice win. I suppose after that win, I convinced myself that he was invincible, and I ignored other factors that were pointed out to me (thanks ftb and jones!) and I backed him at evens today. Lesson learned hopefully.

evil_seed

Any tips for sligo?

jacko

Money being put on Jigalo in the 7.10 Sligo.
Got word from a friend who used to have a horse with Joanna Morgan, she expects Jigalo to put in a big effort, currently at 9/4 on PP and coming in steadily on betfair also