Prediction for future of Northern Ireland

baztard

Here's my quick prediction as to what will happen in the north in years to come.

(10 years from now) I think the economy will have been modelled on that of the south, and will improve greatly. The new found wealth will begin to dampen the number of people with extreme political views, and a large number of people will begin to see themselves as Northern Irish and not simply Irish or British. The political and sectarian divisions that exist today will be blurred, and the people increasingly more homogenised.

(20 years) The place will remain as part of the UK, but only because it currently is, and not because the majority of the people want it to be. (To change to a united ireland would bring too much upheival)

(30 years) The people will feel ever more distanced politically from Britain, and the question of whether or not it should remain part of the UK will be asked (Possibly sparked by an upsurge of nationalism in Scotland). Eventually NI will leave the UK and have a greater relationship with the republic. It will not be part of it though, but more of an independent state, whose support will come from the republic the uk and the EU in equal measure.

A lot of people will think this is complete rubbish, but I reckon it could happen. I would like to see a united ireland myself, but sadly I dont think it will happen in our lifetime if it evers does.

InFront

I'm not convinced on the possibility of predicting as anywhere near accurate the course of a state's politics over that much of a timeline. 30 years ago in Northern Ireland, 1976, they had just dissolved the assembly and implemented direct rule from Westminster... 30 years later, after all the effort, the bloody thing is still suspended.

I'm sure if you asked a political pundit their predictions for NI 30 years ago, they would have responded with a timeline not dissimlar from the one above, except with a few political biases thrown in. It hasn't been realized.

History tends to shuffle along a lot slower when it comes to ancient rivalries. I don't think the next 30 years in the North will see enormous change. I certainly wouldn't predict a demographical change as dramatic as a turnaround in the state's allegiance. If anything, I think that as Northern Ireland matures, the allegiance to Britian, purely in socio-economic and legal terms, will be strengthened greatly. I'm basing that on statistics which have shown an increased trend of satisfaction with the 'British connection' compared to previous statistics during the troubles.
As regards peace in the North, I think it will continue as it does into the foreseable future for another two or three generations. That's a very loose prediction, I'm not basing it on anything but the situation on Ireland post 1927, when civil war rivalries met the beginning of their end as FF joined Dail Eirinn. Bringing the ethnic/ racial/ religious element into it, it may last longer.

As for the Northern Ireland assembly, and direct rule, that is far too fragile a thing to predict, and history would probably warn us not to.

Nuttzz

the economy is what will drive things further in NI, look at the effects of the Delorean factory in uniting both sides for the short time it was there, "tim" and "hun" worked happily side by side, i remmeber talking to a few NI builders down here who where protestants they were (to use their own words) "amazed that the birds didnt care what religion you are"

when people have noting they use religion as a fall back point, remember all those dancing statues in cork during the not so good times.....

darkman2

Anyone hear about the gaff Berties building in the Belfast. No-one knows what its for??? I persume its for joint authority purposes after Nov 24th. Things may change quite quickly after that if they cant get their act together before then.

silverharp

the North is a backwater and always will be. The real question for 20-30 years time are will the Republic maintain it's position in the sun? In a world where the US economy collapses, horrible demographics in Europe and 2bn Asians that will work for a $ an hour, what position will Ireland have in the EU/world. Georgean Dublin went into decline after power was centalised in Britain, the same will happen again if power is centralised in Europe or the other Geo events happen.

Mick86

baztard wrote:

Here's my quick prediction as to what will happen in the north in years to come.......

2/9/06 Northern Ireland 1 Iceland 0

6/9/06 Northern Ireland 0 Spain 3

7/10/06 Denmark 1 Northern Ireland 0

11/10/06 Northern Ireland 2 Latvia 1

24/3/07 Lichenstein 0 Northern Ireland 3

28/3/07 Northern Ireland 1 Sweden 2

22/6/07 Northern Ireland 3 Lichenstein 0

8/9/07 Latvia 1 Northern Ireland 1

12/9/07 Iceland 0 Northern Ireland 0

17/10/07 Sweden 2 Northern Ireland 3

17/11/07 Northern Ireland 3 Denmark 1

21/11/07 Spain 1 Northern Ireland 2

On the back of the last three amazing results Northern Ireland qualify for Euro 2008 but are beaten by the Rep of Ireland 2-0 in the finals.:D

Steve Staunton is given the freedom of Drogheda and a knighthood in the 2009 New Years Honours list.

magick

the same will happen again if power is centralised in Europe or the other Geo events happen.

Tory line if ever their was one.

Well we faired pretty well under the EU, but not to go off topic.
Personally it would be nice to have a united Ireland but before (if ever) that happens id rather see both sides live in peace and work together instead of the idiots that are up there now .

admiralofthefleet

Mick86 wrote:

2/9/06 Northern Ireland 1 Iceland 0

6/9/06 Northern Ireland 0 Spain 3

7/10/06 Denmark 1 Northern Ireland 0

11/10/06 Northern Ireland 2 Latvia 1

24/3/07 Lichenstein 0 Northern Ireland 3

28/3/07 Northern Ireland 1 Sweden 2

22/6/07 Northern Ireland 3 Lichenstein 0

8/9/07 Latvia 1 Northern Ireland 1

12/9/07 Iceland 0 Northern Ireland 0

17/10/07 Sweden 2 Northern Ireland 3

17/11/07 Northern Ireland 3 Denmark 1

21/11/07 Spain 1 Northern Ireland 2

On the back of the last three amazing results Northern Ireland qualify for Euro 2008 but are beaten by the Rep of Ireland 2-0 in the finals.:D

Steve Staunton is given the freedom of Drogheda and a knighthood in the 2009 New Years Honours list.

how could he given a knighthood, he isnt british?

robinph

admiralgar wrote:

how could he given a knighthood, he isnt british?

Bill Gates, Ruolph Gulliani (sp), Bob Geldof, Terry Wogan, etc ...

oscarBravo

I don't hold out much hope for this thread ever getting back on topic.

Closed.