Falkland Islands dispute heats up

Dub13

The Argentinian President has come out in public, making clear his ambition to reclaim the falklands,Also top Argentine officials have started laying serious claim to the Falklands once again. They've also set up a parliamentary group dedicated to it. And have contacted the UN on sovreignty issues.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20060808/wl_csm/omalvinas_1

IrishAirCorps

This has been brewing for a few months now it seems the Argies have been waiting for the UK to get into some big conflicts such as Iraq,Afghanistan etc so the UK forces would be spread out and might not be able to take on another conflict, i think they Argies are gonna try again!

magick

wow didnt know about this, though im in the usa at the mo so the news here is only concerened about the whole middle east thing at the mo

but lets see, if the Argies took the Islands tomorrow ,

what is the current state of the Argies Defnace forces any1 know?

Dub13

One theory going around is this could be a tatic by other nations, pushing this policy route in Argentina would really mess up the UKs plans in Iraq and Afghanistan and therefore piling on the pressure onto the US... interesting, Russia? China seems to be quite influencial in South America at the moment...

TempestSabre

No Sea Harriers now! No Vulcans. That said the UK Armed Forces are some of the most professional in the world, and that makes all the difference.

county

i`d like to see them try it,bring back maggie quick:rolleyes:

Dub13

TempestSabre wrote:

No Sea Harriers now! No Vulcans. That said the UK Armed Forces are some of the most professional in the world, and that makes all the difference.

Very true but very very over stretched at the moment.

Dub13

An interesting question,would the US get directly involved this time...?

county

tbh i dont think they would need to,but a very intresting point

cushtac

I seriously doubt the Argentinians are going to try invading the Falklands again, but it wouldn't go well for them. The Brits have based a good-sized force with air support on the islands.

Dirk Gently

I doubt the Argies would be so bold as to land troops on the islands and take them back but I do think they will increase pressure politically to control or at least have more influence on the islands. There’s a healthy supply of oil in the territorial waters of the Falklands so it is strategically important. I can't see the Argies getting any joy on the diplomatic front for a full handover though. As long as the islands inhabitants want to keep the link with the UK then neither the UK or the UN are going to agree to an Argentine takeover. The last landing was an attempt by the then dictator to unite Argentina which was very volatile internally. Nothing like a good war to united a country against a common outside enemy. It worked for a while anyway.

Today’s Argentina is different to the old dictatorship and I seriously doubt we will see an act of war by the Argies against UK and I seriously doubt the UK would want that to happen either. It is a good time for Argentina to step up its war of words over the islands though as the UK will if not at first but after a while start listening in an attempt to keep the Argies happy and pacified. It is not impossible that the Argies could get some kind of stronger role to play in relation to the islands as a concession seen as the UK is busy fighting other wars.

In the unlikely event of a war, it would be interesting. The situation has changed since the last conflict. No more general Pinochet in Chile to help out the British, although they can still rely on the support of America however the British are stretched to the limit with their little adventures in the Middle East as are the Americans. I doubt either country would want to commit to a new war on a new front on a different continent. If America had the capacity to commit to a large scale Latin American war I reckon they would have taken Chavez out by now. They're already well bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan and potentially Syria and Iran if those countries decide to come to the aid of Lebanon against the Israelis. The Argies have good relations with most of their neighbours in the region who wont take kindly to a British counter attack should the Argies take the islands and American intervention will probably drag in Venezuela. Russia ( and china a lot more lately)seem to be getting on very well with the Latin left wing countries too so they wont be happy either. Might give Hugo Chavez a chance to use some of his new Russian helicopters and fighter jets.

Maybe the Argies see this as their best opportunity of getting the British to pay attention. Britain will have to take any Argie proposals seriously and at least look like they are considering negotiations because they wont want the situation to get to a point where a conflict might happen, a conflict they will be seriously disadvantaged in considering their over stretched military and Argentina’s strong regional support. Any deal done on the Falklands will have an affect on Gibraltar too though as Spain will look to match any kind of concessions given to the Argies.

A potentially very messy situation at the worst possible time for the UK but one I doubt will lead to a military conflict. Too much at stake for both the Argies and the UK if they go to war. If it did happen I think the U.S. would probably have to make up the bulk of the British response as I can't see the British been able to put together a big enough force on their own. Good job Maggie isn't still around but Blair is as close to Maggie as you can get so tensions could definetly rise.

county

clown bag wrote:

I doubt the Argies would be so bold as to land troops on the islands and take them back but I do think they will increase pressure politically to control or at least have more influence on the islands. There’s a healthy supply of oil in the territorial waters of the Falklands so it is strategically important. I can't see the Argies getting any joy on the diplomatic front for a full handover though. As long as the islands inhabitants want to keep the link with the UK then neither the UK or the UN are going to agree to an Argentine takeover. The last landing was an attempt by the then dictator to unite Argentina which was very volatile internally. Nothing like a good war to united a country against a common outside enemy. It worked for a while anyway.

Today’s Argentina is different to the old dictatorship and I seriously doubt we will see an act of war by the Argies against UK and I seriously doubt the UK would want that to happen either. It is a good time for Argentina to step up its war of words over the islands though as the UK will if not at first but after a while start listening in an attempt to keep the Argies happy and pacified. It is not impossible that the Argies could get some kind of stronger role to play in relation to the islands as a concession seen as the UK is busy fighting other wars.

In the unlikely event of a war, it would be interesting. The situation has changed since the last conflict. No more general Pinochet in Chile to help out the British, although they can still rely on the support of America however the British are stretched to the limit with their little adventures in the Middle East as are the Americans. I doubt either country would want to commit to a new war on a new front on a different continent. If America had the capacity to commit to a large scale Latin American war I reckon they would have taken Chavez out by now. They're already well bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan and potentially Syria and Iran if those countries decide to come to the aid of Lebanon against the Israelis. The Argies have good relations with most of their neighbours in the region who wont take kindly to a British counter attack should the Argies take the islands and American intervention will probably drag in Venezuela. Russia ( and china a lot more lately)seem to be getting on very well with the Latin left wing countries too so they wont be happy either. Might give Hugo Chavez a chance to use some of his new Russian helicopters and fighter jets.

Maybe the Argies see this as their best opportunity of getting the British to pay attention. Britain will have to take any Argie proposals seriously and at least look like they are considering negotiations because they wont want the situation to get to a point where a conflict might happen, a conflict they will be seriously disadvantaged in considering their over stretched military and Argentina’s strong regional support. Any deal done on the Falklands will have an affect on Gibraltar too though as Spain will look to match any kind of concessions given to the Argies.

A potentially very messy situation at the worst possible time for the UK but one I doubt will lead to a military conflict. Too much at stake for both the Argies and the UK if they go to war. If it did happen I think the U.S. would probably have to make up the bulk of the British response as I can't see the British been able to put together a big enough force on their own. Good job Maggie isn't still around but Blair is as close to Maggie as you can get so tensions could definetly rise.

i disagree,the falklands is british,100% of people on the island consider themselves british so proposals are out the window imo,the same goes for Gibraltar

Dirk Gently

county wrote:

i disagree,the falklands is british,100% of people on the island consider themselves british so proposals are out the window imo,the same goes for Gibraltar

I never said anything about who rightly owns the Islands, just offered a reason as to why the Argies might be pushing this agenda at this time. Theres never going to be a will from the people on the Island for an Argie takeover and the UK wont hand it over but the Argies could get a few little sneaky deals regarding oil and fishing from putting pressure on them at this time when they are obviously pre occupied in the middle east.

admiralofthefleet

as with Northern Ireland the falklands are of no economic or strategic interest to the uk. (john major admitted this in the very early 90's).
the only reason they are holding on to it is because it is not in the british mindset to give anything up easily or without a fight. (this is evident in the amount of southern & northern Irish they have murdered over the centuries).
the falklands is a cold rocky piece of land right beside Argentina & the Argentinians are entitled to claim it.
its like the british laying claim to Irelands eye off Howth in Dublin. or Velentia Island in Kerry.

Dirk Gently

admiralgar wrote:

the only reason they are holding on to it is because it is not in the british mindset to give anything up easily or without a fight.

It’s not as simple as that though. Sure the UK have no business claiming the Islands but what about the people living on there who are all loyal to the UK. Whether the people were planted there or not doesn’t make a difference if you want a peaceful handover with a cooperative population. It’s the fact that the people don’t want change that matters regardless of whether the British claim is valid or not. Not as easy to simply hand over the Falklands with a British population living there. The Islands themselves are pretty worthless but the waters around it are very important. Like Gibraltar, most argentines and most Spanish want the Islands returned but the people living on both Gibraltar and the Falklands want to remain British. Any handover will be met with hostility by the people on the Islands and that’s why they won’t be handed over. I still reckon the Argies might get some sort of deal but not regarding sovereignty.

cushtac

county wrote:

i disagree,the falklands is british,100% of people on the island consider themselves british so proposals are out the window imo,the same goes for Gibraltar

A couple of years prior to the war the Argentinians were on the verge of buying the whole place, the only thing that scuppered the deal was the Islanders holding out for a bigger payout.

The war might have polarised their opinions since, but they weren't so adverse to selling the Falklands once & might come around to that way of thinking again.

IrishAirCorps

Any action involving force would simply lead to a de facto possession of the islands by the Argies.

They are broke, and their military is old (their front line fighters are still the Mirages/Fingers/Daggers they used during the 1982 conflict, for example). One thing you ought to consider is that the A-4s, which are today their main strike platform, are maintained by Lockheed Martin personnel. Take LM out of the equation, and the fleet will soon be stuck to the ground.

bearded1

There's 4 Tornadoes based on the Islands permanently, as well as a patrol ship, and a frigate or destroyer nearby. In 1982 there were a handful of troops based on the island, (about 60) theres a couple of hundred there now.
It wouldn't be the walk in the park it was first time round for the Argies and they know that.

IrishAirCorps

3000 people being protected by 1200 troops

Hagar

As soon as the British get their task force down to Las Malvinas we should have another go at Rockall.;)