I need a lover with a slow hand

fuzzbox

Villain seems solid.
The question is - do I move on the turn, or is calling turn and betting river the best plan here?
I figure its hard for him to have a hand he really likes, so he might fold if I raise, but maybe he makes a call on the river with a worse hand, or maybe he catches something (if he has AK/AQ etc).


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($1415)
UTG ($1097.30)
MP ($609)
CO ($557.75)
Fuzz ($607)
SB ($617.15)

Preflop: Fuzz is Button with 7, 7. SB posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, MP raises to $22, 1 fold, Fuzz calls $22, 2 folds.

Flop: ($53) 2, 2, 8(2 players)
MP bets $45, Fuzz calls $45.

Turn: ($143) 7(2 players)
MP bets $85, Fuzz calls $85.

River: ($313) 5(2 players)
MP checks, Fuzz bets $225.

RoundTower

I would raise the turn, I don't think he will fold an overpair ever. If he has AQ or similar too bad, there was only a small chance of him hitting anyway. Hoping he hits an A is one side of the coin: the other is that he has TT and a K comes on the river and scares him away, so one cancels out the other.

Plus if you were floating with something silly you would raise here, so it is possible for you to have nothing. But if you call again you must have some kind of a hand.

I think I would go all in on the river, if he has an overpair I think he will call this as easily as $225, if he has A high he won't call anything.

fuzzbox

RoundTower wrote:

I would raise the turn, I don't think he will fold an overpair ever. If he has AQ or similar too bad, there was only a small chance of him hitting anyway. Hoping he hits an A is one side of the coin: the other is that he has TT and a K comes on the river and scares him away, so one cancels out the other.

Plus if you were floating with something silly you would raise here, so it is possible for you to have nothing. But if you call again you must have some kind of a hand.

I think I would go all in on the river, if he has an overpair I think he will call this as easily as $225, if he has A high he won't call anything.

You think TT calls here a lot if I raise the turn and shove the river?
Really?

Hmmmm

He called with TT.

RoundTower

I don't play this game but I think so.

valor

I like your line far better than raising the turn

pok3rplaya

raising the turn is an obvious set line.

RoundTower

pok3rplaya wrote:

raising the turn is an obvious set line.

I know what you mean but it's also the only way you could be bluffing here. Plus there are only two possible sets/overfulls here, instead of 4 as normal, and an overfull has less incentive to raise the turn than a set, because it does not really fear a free card, so a raise is more likely than normal to be a bluff.

I don't know if I like villain's river call but if you plan to c/call a blank river here you should surely be calling a turn raise.

fuzzbox

RT: a turn raise represents a lot more strength than a turn call and a river bet.

I think villains c/c on the river is pretty bad too, but do you check/fold here with TT? ... what about AA?

RoundTower

Like I said I don't know, against you I probably do fold. I don't fold AA, it's definitely possible you were slowplaying a smaller overpair.

I don't understand how a turn call+river bet doesn't represent a lot of strength here. Can you ever have something like 98 after calling on 2 streets and betting the river? How about a complete bluff? I don't see you ever playing AQ like this, and the rare times you floated with something like 9Td and hit a miracle on fourth street, I accept that I'm getting bluffed occasionally. There just aren't any bluffing hands that get to the river this way.