100k Guaranteed Last Night - 3 Off The Bubble

ianmc38

I am 16th in chips and get moved to a new table. On the button, I'm dealt AKo. UTG who has me covered pushes.

Folded to me.

What I do?

Bp!

After gettin this deep in a nice payout tourney IF i am to go out I would rather be the one pushing than calling my chips off so I probably find the fold button (esp only being new to table). Though if stacksizes and blinds dictate a call then call it is

Iago

what are the blinds, what size is your stack?

generally I fold this unless I'm in blind trouble

marius

Do you want to win or do you want to cash?

You could fold and wait for a better spot - but you may not get one. Depends on stack sizes vs blinds.

I call and concentrate really hard on hitting - 10 j q flop:)

Hectorjelly

I think you should probably call. Most people are pushing any ace there, certainly AJ AQ

ianmc38

Sorry I have about 15xBB left.

fuzzbox

How many chips do you have?
If you are relatively short, then call.
If you are relatively deep, then call

.

I always call if I am short, and I always consider folding if I am deep, and end up calling anyway.

I often get busted with AK.

ianmc38

marius wrote:

Do you want to win or do you want to cash?

You could fold and wait for a better spot - but you may not get one. Depends on stack sizes vs blinds.

I call and concentrate really hard on hitting - 10 j q flop:)

Cashing is nice - 1k+ for last place ITM.

Winning is nicer - ~30k.
Even 5th ~8k is nice.

Hawk Eye

What 100k GTD only pays 13, whats the buyin for this there must have been a big overlay.

EDIT It has to be Bodog

ianmc38

Hawk Eye wrote:

What 100k GTD only pays 13, whats the buyin for this there must have been a big overlay.

EDIT It has to be Bodog

No 27 get paid. I am 16th in chips and 30 players left.

5starpool

He is 16th in chips HawkEye, there are more than 16 left. My guess is that there are 30 left on Tribeca.

CoD

Think its tribeca, $54 rebuy and pays top 27. No overlay.

Ollieboy

I think I would fold here, he's pushing utg and you have no reads on him, I would expect to see a big pair, also how many shortstacks are on your table, is he hoping to get action from them. I'm sure your hand is alive in this situation, but I would rather wait for a better position to make a move or call than this, but it wouldn't be a easy laydown.

By is move, I'm guessing he wants action, as he as not other reason to make this poor play, I've also seen players make this move with 33, but I'm guessing he's a better player than this.

willis

i fold, i reckon your racing against QQ or splitting with AK at best. Utg has 20bbs minmum, on the bubble, UTG, stacks that can probably crush him/eliminate him, why the heck would he push with AJ/AQ when he knows hes only getting called by big hands, surely its a terrible risk/reward situation for him. Therefore he has to have a hand imo. I reckon he has AK/QQ/KK/AA, if he pushes with AA/KK i love his play as it looks like he is a bubble bully and it looks weaker than a 3bb raise utg. If he has QQ he may have decided that hes prepared to go broke here vs AA/KK so he decides to make the decision himself to push instead of having to call a reraise allin vs AK/AA/kk. I fold

RoundTower

Bp! wrote:

After gettin this deep in a nice payout tourney IF i am to go out I would rather be the one pushing than calling my chips off so I probably find the fold button (esp only being new to table). Though if stacksizes and blinds dictate a call then call it is

If we're getting it all in I would prefer to be the one calling.

I would certainly call here, this is pretty much never KK/AA and you are way ahead of his range otherwise.

ocallagh

fold, blind into the money, get it all in with J9o on the button in a desperate attempt to make the FT, and walk into a loose call by A4o on the BB. As the river seals your fate you wonder "why the **** didnt i gamble with AK earlier on!!"

Gholimoli

RoundTower wrote:

If we're getting it all in I would prefer to be the one calling.

I would certainly call here, this is pretty much never KK/AA and you are way ahead of his range otherwise.

this makes no sense at all.
why would rather be tha one calling and not the one pushing?
also he is not very ahead of his range at all.
he is 50/50 against villains range and more than likely on the bad side of the 50/50 so he is not ahead here.
i would prob fold here TBH Ian and go for the 1k .having said that this really a gambling decision as it could go either way.you could win the flip and be make it deeper or you could lose and not get the 1K.

5starpool

Gholimoli wrote:

this makes no sense at all.
why would rather be tha one calling and not the one pushing?

If you are calling an allin of this size you must have a real hand, but to make the push you do not need a real hand, I presume this is what RT is referring to and I agree with him 100%. I would probably call in this position, expecting to see AA/KK only a very small percentage of the time, so it is either close to a coinflip or much better than one, with being a big dog a small amount.

Bp!

I believe AA/KK can make this move alot more than suggested

jhegarty

I would fold , even if he only has a pair of 2s your in a race you don't want to be in at the moment....

RoundTower

Gholimoli wrote:

this makes no sense at all.
why would rather be tha one calling and not the one pushing?

No and this is a mistake in thinking I see all the time on this forum that goes unnoticed. People think it's somehow more honourable or less fishy or something if they go out of a tourney pushing instead of calling an all in. One of the Harrington books is very good on this topic, it encourages you to make all kinds of marginal calls because you are getting good pot odds.

When I call an all in late in a tourney I am probably >60% to win the hand. If I push and get called I am probably <40%.

And you're not 50 50 here. Villain will sometimes have AJ or AQ but he will practically never have AA. You are probably 55-60% against his range.

Gholimoli

RoundTower wrote:

No and this is a mistake in thinking I see all the time on this forum that goes unnoticed. People think it's somehow more honourable or less fishy or something if they go out of a tourney pushing instead of calling an all in. One of the Harrington books is very good on this topic, it encourages you to make all kinds of marginal calls because you are getting good pot odds.

When I call an all in late in a tourney I am probably >60% to win the hand. If I push and get called I am probably <40%.

And you're not 50 50 here. Villain will sometimes have AJ or AQ but he will practically never have AA. You are probably 55-60% against his range.

your thinking is way off here RT.
the reason why ppl here or anywhere think its better to push all in rather than call all in has nothing to do with being a fish,honor,or being a man or gent etc.
there is a simple reason for it.when you push you have two ways of winning,either your opponent can fold or IF HE CALLS you can still make the best hand and win however if you call you MUST have make the best hand to win.
that is the reason why pushing all in is better than calling.
also where do you get your stats from that,if you call your >60% to win.
how do you figure that out?or if you push and get called your less than 40%.
so if i push with my AA or KK and get called im less than 40% to win ???
also i have often seen good players push with AA,KK.i do it my self some times so you can never rule it out 100% and thats why my comment about 50/50 .the times he has AQ/AJ(there is as much chance some one would do this with AJ than there is with AA i think as they are both unlikely but possible) would be offset by the times he has KK,AA here and the rest of the time he has PP which is still ahead of AK.

fuzzbox

RT: the fold equity you have makes your overall EV more positive if you push, which is the reason why you would rather be the first one putting your chips in the pot with AK. (or the 2nd one who is reraising the first one).

I dont tend to see AQ/AJ very often though. I think its more like wishful thinking.

Especially if he is 15BBs + deep.

RoundTower

I know you are better off pushing AK if you are likely to be up against a hand like 77 that you might get to fold. But people really do take this too far and get strange ideas like "I'd push with AJ, but I'd never call an all in with it" and "I like to be the one pushing when I get knocked out of a tournament, not the one calling", just because they think pushing is better than calling.

fuzzbox

RT: I agree with what you say (with regard to ppl having strange views on pushing Vs calling), but I dont think it applies here.

RoundTower

I also think this hand would be much better for us if villain had made it 3.5BB and we could push now (then the hand is definitely profitable for us, while we're not sure if it is now). The thinking I was referring to is in Bp's post:

Bp! wrote:

After gettin this deep in a nice payout tourney IF i am to go out I would rather be the one pushing than calling my chips off so I probably find the fold button (esp only being new to table). Though if stacksizes and blinds dictate a call then call it is

ianmc38

Well I thought he must have 22-JJ/AJ+, trying to steal the blinds with bubble tightness.

I called hoping for a race as I would have been happy enough to see any pair but KK/AA, as I'd like to have aimed for top 5 and that would have put me in contention.

Unfortunately it was the double bluff with AA.

Iago

So I've 15BBs+, I'm on the button with probably 7-8 free hands to come. 3 players left to go out before getting at least $1K in prize money, and UTG who covers me pushes all-in. I've AKo and what do I do...

I'm still folding here, with 27 players left I'm calling but not this close to the bubble and not when I'll have an opportunity for a couple of steals/ or better than a 50/50 at best situation before I get into trouble.

I really don't think villian has AQ/AJ here all that often, so I'm facing a pp and a race that I really don't need at this point.

Norwich Fan Rob

ok, say u have 9T suited in the cut off, and blinds are worth winning, and u open push 10 times.
6-7 times out of 10 u win uncontested.
1-2 times out of 10, u get called by a small pair, or Ax, or 2 overs, and u win almost 50% of these.
1 time out of 10 u get called by a hand that dominates, or an overpair, and even then sometimes u outdraw.
1-2 times u get called by AK, AQ, and u still have a fairly decent chance to win.
But on average u win a small pot over 6 times, and a big pot maybe 1.5 times.
U might lost on average 20% of the time.

Now if u pick up AK on the BB, and someone pushes into u 10 times and u call.
1-2 times they might have AA or KK. (u win around 1 in 3.5 of these i would guess)
Half the time they had a lower pp and its a race.
Sometimes they have suited connectors and u win about 60% of these.
Sometimes they have Ax and u dominate, and win most of these.
But u will still lose a big pot close to half the time or a full table in this scenario.
(diff if short handed, huge blinds or short stack push, as they can push with a lot less).

Therefore, by pushing first with an average hand, u win about 80% of pots, and only twice lose a big pot (due to the folding equity).
By calling with a premium hand such as AK, your chances of losing a big pot, being eliminated, are much higher.

(these figures, % etc are guesses off the top of my head, this is far from exact, just to give a broad idea of how folding equity works, and why pushing is better than calling).

Gholimoli

RoundTower wrote:

I know you are better off pushing AK if you are likely to be up against a hand like 77 that you might get to fold. But people really do take this too far and get strange ideas like "I'd push with AJ, but I'd never call an all in with it" and "I like to be the one pushing when I get knocked out of a tournament, not the one calling", just because they think pushing is better than calling.

RT,
pushing is better than calling.
suppose you had the same hand ,i use your example here AJs.
its obvious that pushing with it is much better than calling with it.
if you push with it you may get alot of hands to fold including AQ and AK some times.but would you call your counting on having the best hand.
as Fuzz said it has to with the extra FE you get with pushing that makes the over all play more +EV when you push than when you call.
now some ppl may not know it or understand why its the better play and they still do it but its still the better play.

cardshark202

ianmc38 wrote:

Well I thought he must have 22-JJ/AJ+, trying to steal the blinds with bubble tightness.

I called hoping for a race as I would have been happy enough to see any pair but KK/AA, as I'd like to have aimed for top 5 and that would have put me in contention.

Unfortunately it was the double bluff with AA.

Those fúckers. This happened to me in the 1m gtd on stars a while back, when we were down to the last 200 and gtd about 1k. Open-pusher, I call with AK, chance to get back to top 5 in chips and the lucky príck has AA.

Bp!

RoundTower wrote:

I also think this hand would be much better for us if villain had made it 3.5BB and we could push now (then the hand is definitely profitable for us, while we're not sure if it is now). The thinking I was referring to is in Bp's post:

If the Villain did raise 3 x BB etc I dont think many of us would have a problem with coming over the top, the Q in hand is about callin all your chips with AK and crossing your fingers that your not already up to your neck in chit!

EDIT: Just to note im only talkin in relation to this senario, the UTG player had +16BB's, its very close to the bubble in a decent payout torney, IF he picks up AA/KK I can see why a push would be a good play) if he is within 10-20BBs, for a few reasons

1 the obvious one, the disguising of his hand, he may get an AK to call him or a shorty on many hands from 99 to AJ etc

2 Not giving some big stack the odds to call and hit his set and end up at the rail

3 and plain not bein too fancy nearing the bubble time and just shoving and "if im called im called" attitude

willis

Ian, calling hoping for a 50/50...thats bad. If you are 50/50 your the slight dog, as pointed out he rarely has AQ/AJ and more likely has AK/QQ and somtimes he has AA/KK. I think your a better player than to call "hoping for a 50/50", especially given your stack size. There is also a high chance of tight play on the bubble so plenty of chances for you to accumulate chips.

BTW the villains play is very good, i love the open push with aces, as RT said "its almost never aa/kk". Thats what makes his play so good.

ianmc38

willis wrote:

Ian, calling hoping for a 50/50...thats bad. If you are 50/50 your the slight dog, as pointed out he rarely has AQ/AJ and more likely has AK/QQ and somtimes he has AA/KK. I think your a better player than to call "hoping for a 50/50", especially given your stack size. There is also a high chance of tight play on the bubble so plenty of chances for you to accumulate chips.

BTW the villains play is very good, i love the open push with aces, as RT said "its almost never aa/kk". Thats what makes his play so good.

I totally agree. i think it was an awful call when I put him on a range of hands. The open-push was what got me as I said to myself there's no way he'd open push 20ish bbs from UTG with AA/KK.

In retrospect there's no hand a good player would do this with other than AA/KK.

And you're right, I should have folded and exploited the tightness of the approaching bubble instead of calling in that spot.

We live and learn...

cardshark202

ianmc38 wrote:

I totally agree. i think it was an awful call when I put him on a range of hands. The open-push was what got me as I said to myself there's no way he'd open push 20ish bbs from UTG with AA/KK.

In retrospect there's no hand a good player would do this with other than AA/KK.

And you're right, I should have folded and exploited the tightness of the approaching bubble instead of calling in that spot.

We live and learn...

The open-push with AA is terrible play, as you reduce the chances of getting any action from hands like 88 or AQ, even AK as has been shown in this thread. So no 'good' player will open-push for lots with AA.

5starpool

cardshark202 wrote:

The open-push with AA is terrible play, as you reduce the chances of getting any action from hands like 88 or AQ, even AK as has been shown in this thread. So no 'good' player will open-push for lots with AA.

I agree, the one time in 20 when this does work does not compensate for the other 19 thimes when you only steal the blinds.

RoundTower

Gholimoli wrote:

RT,
pushing is better than calling.
suppose you had the same hand ,i use your example here AJs.
its obvious that pushing with it is much better than calling with it.
if you push with it you may get alot of hands to fold including AQ and AK some times.but would you call your counting on having the best hand.
as Fuzz said it has to with the extra FE you get with pushing that makes the over all play more +EV when you push than when you call.
now some ppl may not know it or understand why its the better play and they still do it but its still the better play.

I realise that the chips you pick up when you push and everyone folds are important and your main source of profit when you push with a weak or marginal hand. Give me some credit for that. Here's an example though that I think illustrates my point.

Lets say you have AJ and 10BB in MP somewhere and your opponents are reasonably smart/tight/aggressive. You push. You will never get called by a hand that beats you, let's say your opponents will call you with AQ or better, AJs or better, 88 or better. You'd be just as well off pushing with 9Ts here, there's nothing special about having AJ.

On the other hand lets say MP pushes and you are the one in the BB. Again he is aggressive and he would do this not quite with any two, but certainly with any ace, and hands like 67s. You are correct to call with AJ now.

So here's an example of somewhere where you're better off calling an all in than pushing all in yourself. And if you're definitely being called you're certainly better to be calling the all in rather than pushing yourself. Yet how many people here say stuff like "I'd push with AJ, but I'd never call a push with it"?

ianmc38

What I meant was no good player will put 20xBB in from UTG unless he doesn't mind getting called. I don't think it's a great play either, but the way it panned out, it worked a treat for him.

RoundTower

ianmc38 wrote:

What I meant was no good player will put 20xBB in from UTG unless he doesn't mind getting called. I don't think it's a great play either, but the way it panned out, it worked a treat for him.

Not really, if he had made it 4BB you would have pushed with the same result for him. And if you have AQ/99 he does much better making a normal raise.

I don't think it's good play (unless you are up against absolute retards and pretty much guaranteed a caller, then it might be good). More likely villain was scared of losing the pot and going out of the tourney so close to the bubble.

mewso

cardshark202 wrote:

The open-push with AA is terrible play, as you reduce the chances of getting any action from hands like 88 or AQ, even AK as has been shown in this thread. So no 'good' player will open-push for lots with AA.

I'm not so sure I agree. He is one of the big stacks I assume so if hes any good he 'aint getting all his chips in with AQ and as it's deep in the tourney there should be small stacks out there who will call with the like of 88 etc. I think it's a good move. You're not pushing out players who need to double-up or die and you may well get a call from a huge stack with 88 or AQ. This is tribecca after all and the fact your opponents are in the last 16 does not guarantee standard play.
Having said that a limp re-raise or even a standard raise would probably have ended with the same result and the only difference would be the AK would have less of a decision to make.

cardshark202

musician wrote:

I'm not so sure I agree. He is one of the big stacks I assume so if hes any good he 'aint getting all his chips in with AQ and as it's deep in the tourney there should be small stacks out there who will call with the like of 88 etc. I think it's a good move. You're not pushing out players who need to double-up or die and you may well get a call from a huge stack with 88 or AQ. This is tribecca after all and the fact your opponents are in the last 16 does not guarantee standard play.
Having said that a limp re-raise or even a standard raise would probably have ended with the same result and the only difference would be the AK would have less of a decision to make.

No its definately worse than a normal raise. The reason being that his open push has most people folding AK. This is terrible for him. He's missing out on loads of action and many chances to gain a lot more chips by open-pushing. Only awful players who are scared of losing do this open-push.

Another thing: If most people think he only has AA/KK here I assume everyone insta-folds KK.

mewso

cardshark202 wrote:

The reason being that his open push has most people folding AK.

How are you getting most people to fold AK? Most here said they call this. I agree it's probably not as good a play as a standard raise but if I know nothing about this guy I'm considering a big hand is a possibility.

cardshark202 wrote:

Another thing: If most people think he only has AA/KK here I assume everyone insta-folds KK.

I think most people who mentioned AA/KK were saying they wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it.

cardshark202

musician wrote:

How are you getting most people to fold AK? Most here said they call this. I agree it's probably not as good a play as a standard raise but if I know nothing about this guy I'm considering a big hand is a possibility.



I think most people who mentioned AA/KK were saying they wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it.

Ok well the fact is that if even one person folds AK to this raise, thats one person more than would have folded AK to a normal raise.

The Snapper

ianmc38 wrote:

Well I thought he must have 22-JJ/AJ+, trying to steal the blinds with bubble tightness.

I called hoping for a race as I would have been happy enough to see any pair but KK/AA, as I'd like to have aimed for top 5 and that would have put me in contention.

Unfortunately it was the double bluff with AA.

Fair play for posting this ( possibly not one of your better moments )

16th of 30 players is likely to be average stack. ?
3 from the money ( 1k min = 800+ profit ).
Your a decent player with an edge over most and call for all your stack hoping for a race.

( I'm not having a pop here honest )

This situation may be marginally + cEV but given stacks bubble etc, this has to be a - $EV move ?

Is this a flawed perspective ?

Norwich Fan Rob

pushing AA here is definetely giving up EV in my opinion.
the amount of times people fold hands they may even push to a standard raise, such as AQ, and middle pairs far outweighs the amount of times u get outflopped.

Provided u get the flop heads up, ie, u should make a standard raise.

Atlas_IRL

his all in with AA's is very risky and hard to put him on especially with the big stack, he wants a caller not blinds, this play is used more live as you can see if someone is about to push sometimes

Goodluck2me

cardshark202 wrote:

No its definately worse than a normal raise. The reason being that his open push has most people folding AK. This is terrible for him. He's missing out on loads of action and many chances to gain a lot more chips by open-pushing. Only awful players who are scared of losing do this open-push.

I think it has been discussed here that the correct way to play AK here would be to fold it as it is -ev, that does NOT however mean that is what normally happens and so an open push here is actually not a bad play as it looks much weaker than a 3-4BB raise. I think he will get a caller from TT-KK, AQ+ a lot of the time here as iv seen it happen often enough to justify pushing. what is the correct play is quite often not what is the normal play, thats why i think i could be porfotable to push.

cardshark202

goodluck2me wrote:

I think it has been discussed here that the correct way to play AK here would be to fold it as it is -ev, that does NOT however mean that is what normally happens and so an open push here is actually not a bad play as it looks much weaker than a 3-4BB raise. I think he will get a caller from TT-KK, AQ+ a lot of the time here as iv seen it happen often enough to justify pushing. what is the correct play is quite often not what is the normal play, thats why i think i could be porfotable to push.

It's not nearly as profitable as a standard raise. Its about making the most profitable move, not just a move of some profitability.