EW Accum

Jak

Heyas,

Math never having been a strong point, I was wondering what the feeling is on EW accumulator bets.

Having watched previous days races where I seem to have picked endless 2nd places, I was wondering is there any value in these bets. I always get a bit confused when I see a huge return potential decimated by one horse placing as opposed to winning. If you back a 12-1 horse at quarter odds in an each way accum - surely the 3-1 will keep the accum return up if he places as opposed to winning? Or does it work that way..

Just curious,

JAK

chump

From my experience EW accums aren't value. This is because if one selection gets placed the entire odds are slashed. It's a severe cut at that - check a few odds calculators.

A good bet, if PaddyPower online haven't withdrawn the function is a PLACE accum. [ah they have, ignore] Maybe some other bookie allows this?

Robin1982

In my opinion, the prevalence of each-way betting in the wagering strategies of Irish horseplayers is disappointing - even more so when they are included in so-called accumulator bets. For the uninitiated, an each-way bet is in fact two bets treated as one:

One unit for the selection to win at the listed odds (i.e. 20/1)
One unit for the selection to place at a fraction of the listed odds

The second bet (the place bet) is dependent on a number of factors; the number of runners and hence the number of places paid, and the place fraction

Generally,

2-4 runners - Win only betting
5-7 runners - 1/4 (one quarter) the odds for first 2 places
8+ runners - 1/5 (one fifth) the odds for first 3 places (Handicaps: 12-15 runners - 1/4 odds first 3; 16+ runners - 1/4 odds first 4)

So, lets run through an example and see where potential issues arise.

Horse A - 20/1 - 1/4 odds to place (first 3)

Bet: €1 e/w @ 20/1 (total cost: €2)

Horse A Wins: the win part returns €20 profit (@ 20/1) and the place part returns €5 profit (one quarter of 20 is 5 therefore the place odds are 5/1).
Result: €20 + €5 = €25 profit for a €2 outlay

Horse A finishes 2nd/3rd: the win part returns -€1 profit (€1 loss) and the place part returns €5 profit.
Result: -€1 + €5 = €4 profit for a €2 outlay

Otherwise: €2 loss

versus a normal Win bet (€2 @ 20/1)

Horse A Wins: €40 profit for a €2 outlay (20/1)
Otherwise: €2 loss

See what this means? Think of the profit versus the outlay, which is of course the odds.

When Horse A wins your bet is equivalent to betting €2 @ 12.5/1
When Horse A places your bet is equivalent to betting €2 @ 2/1

So, in trying to answer your question, what about accumulators?

Consider an each-way double on two 20/1 shots (€1 e/w double @ 20/1 & 20/1):

From above, we can work out:

Win part is equivalent to 237.5/1 (versus 440/1 for a normal win double)
Place part is equivalent to 17/1

The issue is that you are placing the exact same stake on the win and place portions regardless of whether you have an opinion on how likely it is for the horse to place or to win. If you can't see any problem with this, consider the following two questions:

Q1: (Use first 3 places, 1/4 odds)

Lets use the Horse A from the first part of this post (20/1 shot). He wins 5% of the time, he finishes 2nd/3rd 25% of the time and the rest of the time he finished unplaced but he always starts at 20/1.
Is this horse profitable to bet on using our €2 each-way?
How about I tell you that I have another horse who always starts at 20/1 and wins 7% of the time - is this a profitable situation and, if so, is it better than your Horse A strategy?

Q2: (Use first 3 places, 1/5 odds)

Situation A) You like a horse in a race, and you reckon he's 90% likely to finish in the top 3 (and when he does, 50% of the time he wins, 50% of the time he comes 2nd/3rd). He is 6/4.
Situation You like a horse in a race, and you reckon he's 60% likely to finish in the top 3 (and when he does, 33% of the time he wins, 66% of the time he comes 2nd/3rd). He is 5/1.

You have €2 to place an each-way bet - which is the better bet? Now ask yourself what would most people do when they had the choice between picking a 6/4 shot or a 5/1 shot for an each-way bet?

Any and all answers, questions, comments and criticisms are welcome.

Hint: If anyone is having difficulties starting, this link to one of my previous posts may assist

Jak

Comprehensive!

And I would never place a big serious bet on an e/w accum or even an accum.

I suppose the way I look at it is that if I have say a fiver for a fun bet, backing a 4-1 winner would get me 20, something which doesn't really excite me as a casual gambler.

However, backing an accum or even an e/w accum at 2.50 with potentially very high returns gives me a little more thrill. It is not really smart for proper betting but for sideline play bets it interests me more.

Cheers.

Crumbs

Robin1982 wrote:

In my opinion, the prevalence of each-way betting in the wagering strategies of Irish horseplayers is disappointing - even more so when they are included in so-called accumulator bets.

Good post as usual, Robin. While I agree that each-way betting is often overused, I think that exploiting the inadequacies of the e/w bet to obtain greater value is an important but lesser-known aspect.

The issue is that you are placing the exact same stake on the win and place portions regardless of whether you have an opinion on how likely it is for the horse to place or to win. If you can't see any problem with this, consider the following two questions:

Q1: (Use first 3 places, 1/4 odds)

Lets use the Horse A from the first part of this post (20/1 shot). He wins 5% of the time, he finishes 2nd/3rd 25% of the time and the rest of the time he finished unplaced but he always starts at 20/1.
Is this horse profitable to bet on using our €2 each-way?

EV(€2 win) = 0.05(40) + 0.95(-2) = 0.10
EV(€1 e/w) = 0.05(25) + 0.25(4) + 0.70(-2) = 0.85

So the e/w bet is more profitable here.

How about I tell you that I have another horse who always starts at 20/1 and wins 7% of the time - is this a profitable situation and, if so, is it better than your Horse A strategy?

EV(€2 win) = 0.07(40) + 0.93(-2) = 0.94
EV(€1 e/w) = 0.07(25) + 0.25(4) + 0.68(-2) = 1.39

Again, the e/w bet is more profitable but as to the question of whether it is better than the previous one, it would depend on what you mean by "better". It's monetarily more profitable but the increase in EV over win-betting is less than with horse A. Is this what you were getting at here? (I just realised that maybe you were disregarding the e/w bet in the second one?)

Q2: (Use first 3 places, 1/5 odds)

Situation A) You like a horse in a race, and you reckon he's 90% likely to finish in the top 3 (and when he does, 50% of the time he wins, 50% of the time he comes 2nd/3rd). He is 6/4.
Situation You like a horse in a race, and you reckon he's 60% likely to finish in the top 3 (and when he does, 33% of the time he wins, 66% of the time he comes 2nd/3rd). He is 5/1.

You have €2 to place an each-way bet - which is the better bet? Now ask yourself what would most people do when they had the choice between picking a 6/4 shot or a 5/1 shot for an each-way bet?

EV(A) = 0.45(1.80) + 0.45(-0.70) + 0.10(-2) = 0.295
EV(B) = 0.20(6) + 0.40(0) + 0.40(-2) = 0.40

So B is the better e/w bet it would seem. (But I get the impression you were expecting A to be better, so maybe I messed up there somewhere. )

I was going to add more to the each-way EV discussion but I'm short on time now. Hopefully tomorrow instead.