How awful was my play here??

Scotty #

GJP Double chance on Monday in Drogheda. Low turn out due to football, weather, and the big game the day before.

6 players left with only 3 paid. I'm under the gun with KJs. Blinds 1000/500 and I've 16000 left (Avg. c20000). I raise to 5000. Next player, who I hadn't been sitting with long and don't know, raises to 12000. Next player goes all-in for 9000 and its folded back to me. Now....I'm thinking 27000 in the pot. If I call I'm committed so its push or fold. If I fold I've 11000 left with the blinds coming in. If I go all in the other guy has me well covered so it'll be 42500 pot. There's only 3 paid, €1150, €800, €500. So I figure its as good a time as any to gamble and I go all-in. Was this a ridiculous move or was it worth the risk?

cardshark202

I would fold instantly. I would also raise less preflop, about 3500. KJ is almost certainly in horrible shape. You have enough left to play push or fold poker so muck in an instant.

The Snapper

I cant believe your asking this question Scotty. Your a solid player and know the answer.:D

Waylander

I agree with Cardhark, I think I would have raised a bit less, and I think I would get away from it now.

accensi0n

Yeah, same as the others.

I'd raise less preflop. 3500.

Your probably dominated. Fold.

ntlbell

Aye scotty, raise pf is too big, I'd prolly only make it 3/3.5k here with KJs

Muck it!

Hitman Actual

TBH, I dont like your raise pre-flop. I know KJs looks pretty, but raising almost a third of your stack UTG isn't great at all. Final-table dependent, I probably just fold this pre-flop with your stack size. But here you may now be committed to the hand, are you getting 4/1 on your push knowing that the 11K will be called as well? I dont know if KJ wins more than 20% of the time (I'm not good on 4-way all-ins), but it might not be a straight fold.

Edit: Folding pre-flop looks kinda tight here, but it's a funny stack size to be messing around with. 13-16BB stacks are a tricky area.

Edit 2: It's a 3-way all-in if you push, isn't it? Unless anyone can throw up some two-dimes stats to say otherwise, I dont think a push is too bad here.

Scotty #

The Snapper wrote:

I cant believe your asking this question Scotty.

I know. I know. I do know the answer but thought there might be a wee bit of justification with only 3 paid. As it happened I was against KK and QQ with a K on the flop. I caught the flush on the river and went on to win

Scotty #

lenny_leonard wrote:

Edit 2: It's a 3-way all-in if you push, isn't it? Unless anyone can throw up some two-dimes stats to say otherwise, I dont think a push is too bad here.

wahoo!!

fuzzbox

cardshark202 wrote:

I would fold instantly. I would also raise less preflop, about 3500.

Really? That much? Why so much?
7x is really really big

fuzzbox

lenny_leonard wrote:

Edit 2: It's a 3-way all-in if you push, isn't it? Unless anyone can throw up some two-dimes stats to say otherwise, I dont think a push is too bad here.

What do you think the range of the other guys is?

breadmonkey

fuzzbox wrote:

Really? That much? Why so much?
7x is really really big

I think the blinds are 500/1000 here. Scotty wasnt very clear:p

Hitman Actual

fuzzbox wrote:

What do you think the range of the other guys is?

Ah, that's the thing, isn't it. I've been messing around with some ranges and getting results of between 20-25%. But to be honest I was probably being a bit generous. OP has implied odds of 23% with his push, so it's close. The fact that Scotty is left with just 11K makes me think that you might as well take the marginal push now, rather than being left in the 10BB range. But I'm really not sure.

RoundTower

I certainly wouldn't fold instantly, you have an awful lot already committed to the pot. I agree raise less in the first place.

Ste05

I think even 3.5k is too big pre-flop here, the best result for this hand is to rob the blinds, therefore I'd make it 2.5k - 3k, or fold, all you want to do here is take the blinds, or the second best scenario would be is if the BB calls and you're left with a 1/2 - 3/4 pot continuation bet to take down the pot. Leaving you with about 10k for a turn push if you think it will work, or enough to fold and play push or fold poker for another 2 orbits. (All assuming you don't hit)

Having said all that, alot of the decision would be made by a couple of criteria:
(a) What you're image is like, i.e. how active you have been lately
(b) What size of bet has been enough to steal the blinds at this table so far
(c) Have the players at the table been respecting OOP Open raises; and
(d) What sort of stack sizes are in the blinds and on the button. (are any of these the CL??)

And then based on all this I'd decide whether to fold or attempt to steal the blinds with this semi-solid hand that has some potential on a flop.

As played out, I'd have to just go with my gut, TBH though, I can't see you having less than 25% equity in the hand against an unknown CL re-raise and then a shorty push, so a re-raise gambly push here would be OK, after finding yourself in this position, I suppose it's just one of those gut instinct plays.

What was your thoughts on the probable range of hands the two lads had??

cardshark202

RoundTower wrote:

I certainly wouldn't fold instantly, you have an awful lot already committed to the pot. I agree raise less in the first place.

I suppose you could wait for one nanosecond and then fold. Pushing is still a clear mistake imo.