Confusion in her eyes that says it all she's lost control again

fuzzbox

PPP 3/6
Villain has 1200. He has shown up with some weird stuff after some heavy preflop action, but has not gone for big bucks postflop thus far without something strong. He took his preflop shot with K6s, vs a raise and a reraise, but it was against a shortstack, who was clearly tilting. He also hit 66x on the flop.
He has reraised me a few times preflop, but we have not really tangled much postflop.
Once, I raised in the CO, he called in the blinds with KQo, flop J9x, check, check, turn blank - check, check, river blank, and check, check, and I won with Ace high.

He has 1200, so he must be at least reasonably good.

I have 950 in the CO and AhAc
Villain is in the SB

Preflop
2 folds, Hero opens to 21, 1 fold, both blinds play.

Flop (63)
5h 4d 2h
villain leads for 12 (???), bb folds. Sometimes I just call this, but here, I just ignored it as a bet, and ramped it up to what I would have bet if he had checked. I make it 50 more (62 to play). Villain quickly makes it 100 more to play ...... and I?

cardshark202

fuzzbox wrote:

PPP 3/6
Villain has 1200. He has shown up with some weird stuff after some heavy preflop action, but has not gone for big bucks postflop thus far without something strong. He took his preflop shot with K6s, vs a raise and a reraise, but it was against a shortstack, who was clearly tilting. He also hit 66x on the flop.
He has reraised me a few times preflop, but we have not really tangled much postflop.
Once, I raised in the CO, he called in the blinds with KQo, flop J9x, check, check, turn blank - check, check, river blank, and check, check, and I won with Ace high.

He has 1200, so he must be at least reasonably good.

I have 950 in the CO and AhAc
Villain is in the SB

Preflop
2 folds, Hero opens to 21, 1 fold, both blinds play.

Flop (63)
5h 4d 2h
villain leads for 12 (???), bb folds. Sometimes I just call this, but here, I just ignored it as a bet, and ramped it up to what I would have bet if he had checked. I make it 50 more (62 to play). Villain quickly makes it 100 more to play ...... and I?

Does kinda look like a set/straight(but why would he be calling with 36/A3 oop) here. I guess seeing as villain has been somewhat described as a tight postflop player I fold. Maybe call and re-evaluate the turn but thats probably like burning $100.

El Stuntman

fuzzbox wrote:

PPP 3/6

He has 1200, so he must be at least reasonably good.

your first meestake meester Bond

pok3rplaya

El Stuntman wrote:

your first meestake meester Bond

I agree.

I also think this guy overvalues an overpair enough that you cant fold this (at least yet).

fuzzbox

pok3rplaya wrote:

I agree.

I also think this guy overvalues an overpair enough that you cant fold this (at least yet).

Do you know this guy?

fuzzbox

El Stuntman wrote:

your first meestake meester Bond

As a rule of thumb, its not a bad one to make ... why would you assume "he has 1200 so he must be a donkey"?

padraig_f

Even though it's effectively a check-raise, I'd feel more comfortable if he was check-raising. I've never played 3/6 but I've never seen that weak-lead/raise/reraise sequence accompanied by a weak hand. If he's doing that with a worse hand he's being super-tricky. I probably give it up, I don't think calling achieves anything, I'd say he'll fire again on the turn nearly 100% of the time.

careca

I would reraise here to about 350. The 12 bet stinks of a blocker bet and he may feel you are just having one last go at the pot on a continuation bet. I would put him on a flush draw.

pok3rplaya

fuzzbox wrote:

Do you know this guy?

No, I'm going with your description, unless I'm reading more into the K6 stuff then I shold. He sounds like a gambler.

Actually now that I think about his donk lead/3-bet does resemble a fishes way of playing a really strong hand.

I think I deffinitly call here though. Turn action?

fuzzbox wrote:

As a rule of thumb, its not a bad one to make ... why would you assume "he has 1200 so he must be a donkey"??

You wouldn't but any fool can hit a hand and double up. Its different if you've watched him gradually build a stack. That earns a certain ammount of respect.

fuzzbox

careca wrote:

I would reraise here to about 350. The 12 bet stinks of a blocker bet and he may feel you are just having one last go at the pot on a continuation bet. I would put him on a flush draw.

If you make it 350, what do you do if
A. villain shoves?
B. villain calls, and the turn is 9s and villain checks?
C. villain calls, turn is 9s and villain shoves?
D. Villain calls, turn is 9h, and villain checks?
E. Villain calls, turn is 9h and villain shoves?

Basically - why are you making it 350? Just because you think he is on a fd?
Why do you put him on an fd?

fuzzbox

pok3rplaya wrote:

You wouldn't but any fool can hit a hand and double up. Its different if you've watched him gradually build a stack. That earns a certain ammount of respect.

The max buy in is 450. He has 3x the max. Thats worth thinking about.

pok3rplaya

fuzzbox wrote:

The max buy in is 450. .

Weird. Didn't know that.

fuzzbox wrote:

He has 3x the max. Thats worth thinking about.

Yeah thats worth more but I still wouldn't base the way I play a hand on it.

fuzzbox

pok3rplaya wrote:

Weird. Didn't know that.




Yeah thats worth more but I still wouldn't base the way I play a hand on it.

Well I'm not, but I'm also not auto-placing him in donkeysville.
Which is the point really.

careca

fuzzbox wrote:

If you make it 350, what do you do if
A. villain shoves?
B. villain calls, and the turn is 9s and villain checks?
C. villain calls, turn is 9s and villain shoves?
D. Villain calls, turn is 9h, and villain checks?
E. Villain calls, turn is 9h and villain shoves?

Basically - why are you making it 350? Just because you think he is on a fd?
Why do you put him on an fd?

I'm making it 350 because I don't like calling and giving him a free card to hit his flush or bad two pair/ gutshot if he has a hand like 56. Maybe i should make it more to give him incorrect odds on the flush draw.

Basically I dont like calling here as you will find out nothing but I certainly wouldnt be folding either. in saying that, calling will inform him that you do have a hand and he might back down but there are a lot of scare cards which could come on the turn.

Its possible he could have a set/ made straight but why the 12 bet on the flop if that is the case. Surely either bet it out or check/raise. The more i think about it i really like AA here.

So would I lose my entire stack

pok3rplaya

Ok. I agree.

I think the K6s experience and the min-lead bet do sway him a little further into donkeysville though right? Thats why I want to keep an eye on the value we get if he does overvalue an overpair even though his flop betting suggests a nut(ish) hand.

P.S. I have an exam in 3 hours that I'm screwed for so everyone start praying please. Ty.

fuzzbox

Careca - if you put him on the range:
set/straight/flush draw, how much do you think you win if you get all-in on the flop everytime with AA?

pok3rplaya

I don't think hed 3-bet a draw OOP like this.

Ste05

This is a very difficult spot, and I'm confused by this guys play, I can only work out that he must have an over pair to the board or a set.

The problem with the hand is similar to recent hands on here. How to disguise your hand. If you re-raise here, you telegraph that you have AA and give him a chance to fold every overpair, upto and possibly even including KK. But will get called by a set/ some mad straight. (This is assuming as Fuzz says, he's a decent player)

I think I'd call with the intention of trying to get to a showdown as cheaply as possible. If he pushes the turn I'd probably make my decision on gut feeling and how the session had been going with him.

pok3rplaya

Yep when he reraises the flop I go into cheap showdown mode too.

fuzzbox

pok3rplaya wrote:

Yep when he reraises the flop I go into cheap showdown mode too.

How would you plan to cheap-showdown this from here?

If I call - the pot is 60 preflop, + 160 each on the flop = 380.
I would have 950-180= 770 remaining.

Even if he half pots the turn and river, he can easily get it in here.

How cheap is cheap?

careca

fuzzbox wrote:

Careca - if you put him on the range:
set/straight/flush draw, how much do you think you win if you get all-in on the flop everytime with AA?

I'm not saying he has a set/straight, I'm saying they have to come into consideration but after looking at his flop bet I would rule them out. Flush draw is definetly a possibility as is anoverpair to the board. I don't normally get stacked with one pair but I could here, regardless how bad the play is.

And i don't agree with saying, get to the showdown as cheaply as possible because this won't be your choice. See fuzz just made this point.

pok3rplaya

Ya good point fuzz.

I think I'm out if he half pots a blank turn, I don't like calling AI in this spot but yet I don't see an advantage in raising AI either. Guess you could say I shouldn't have called the flop reraise then huh?

I just think folding the flop is really weak though. And with this guy it looks like you never know how he might bet the turn.

pok3rplaya

careca wrote:

Flush draw is definetly a possibility

I'd give it 15% of his range max.

careca

pok3rplaya wrote:

I'd give it 15% of his range max.

and how would you split the other 85 %

pok3rplaya

overpair 42.5%
set 42.50%
straight 10%

or something like that, I didn't really check the maths of wheather that makes sense (based on my plan of action for the hand).

I just don't see why he's 3-bet a draw on the flop. What advantage does it give him apart from some disguise and that would be some real crazy 5th level thinking.

careca

pok3rplaya wrote:

overpair 42.5%
set 42.50%
straight 10%

or something like that, I didn't really check the maths of wheather that makes sense (based on my plan of action for the hand).

I just don't see why he's 3-bet a draw on the flop. What advantage does it give him apart from some disguise and that would be some real crazy 5th level thinking.

The only reason I ruled out a set or str8 is because on the 12 bet on the flop. I can't possibly see what this could achieve. It looks like a bad blocking bet to me. If I had a big hand I would either check raise or bet out but I certainly wouldn;t bet 12 into a pot of 60 odd with a flush draw out there.

I see where Fuzz is coming from, in that its a horrible place to get stacked and not the best time to get all your chips in.

From your percentages it means you have to fold on the flop and as i stated I don't like folding here.

Anyway, just throwing my 2c in.

careca

pok3rplaya wrote:

I just don't see why he's 3-bet a draw on the flop. What advantage does it give him apart from some disguise and that would be some real crazy 5th level thinking.

thats a fair point but he could have a big draw like K3h or something like that.

Hectorjelly

I really doubt he has a draw, and whilst he might be value betting a hand we beat I doubt it. I think folding is your only option here, on the flop. The 12 bet is quite often a set or 2 pair.

Fuzzbox im surprised you assume he is good because he has a big stack, I would never do this - especially after seeing him be in a reraised pot with K6.

fuzzbox

Hectorjelly wrote:

I really doubt he has a draw, and whilst he might be value betting a hand we beat I doubt it. I think folding is your only option here, on the flop. The 12 bet is quite often a set or 2 pair.

Fuzzbox im surprised you assume he is good because he has a big stack, I would never do this - especially after seeing him be in a reraised pot with K6.

HJ - with no other reads to go on - big stack is more likely to be good than short stack. Im not really assuming "goodness" but I'm discounting "badness" until shown otherwise.

Yeah the K6 was a bit crazy, but I'm thinking he was just gambling (badly) against a short stack donk (with 150 or something). The shorty was a total donkey too. Its not good, but maybe he uses it as cheap table image, so that he can get players to stack of for a grand with AA on a 542 twotone board !!!

.

fuzzbox

Results:
To end the agony of it all.

I folded. I figure that the "bet weak to induce a raise, and then when raised reraise small" move is waaaay more likely to be a set/straight, than it is to be a crappy overpair or a draw, especially when we are this deep.
Villain is kinda saying "lets get all in", but trying to be quiet about it.

Im still not sure if villain is a total moron, and could play JJ like this or not.

AmarilloFats

A few points.

I would be surprised if villain played a draw like this. A weak lead then a re-raise means a good made hand in my experience.
How would villain play QQ, JJ?
You mention that you cheked down a flop(QJX) with ace hi after your preflop raise....Does villain see you as being passive/aggressive??

IMO the chance of being lightyears behind in this hand is too large to continue.
Foldio.

careca

fuzzbox wrote:

Its not good, but maybe he uses it as cheap table image, so that he can get players to stack of for a grand with AA on a 542 twotone board !!!

.

I'll take it this is a cheap dig at me. If so, I have no problem with it.

Couple of things i am surprised with though. If most posters here agree that a fold is the right move then I am way too passive at the tables. At this stage there are two hands you are behind (set/str8). There are a mountain of hands that you are ahead of (at this stage). Would he play JJ like this ? Probably and QQ,KK the same maybe even 99, 1010.

yourself and HJ say that a 12 bet then minraise is the sign of a monster at these levels, so I have to accept that but I have played enough of 1/2 and a fair bit of 2/4 and I can honestly say I've never seen a player bet 1/5 of the pot on a draw heavy board, hoping to get reraised.

As i say, bit surprised that everyone would fold but if we didn't have different opinions if wouldnt be much fun.

fuzzbox

Careca - Im not digging at you at all.

Ok - heres the thoughts

First - villain has reraised me more than once, thus he is likely to reraise me with JJ+, so we can discount those hands.
Second - villain played v.passively with KQo when he missed the flop totally, even when I showed weakness on multiple streets, so he probably doesnt have air here
Third - he led weak - which is usually either a draw or a big hand. The draw hopes to see the next card cheap, and the big hand hopes to get raised. Usually draws call, and big hands raise
Fourth - he reraises only 100 more, which is quite a small reraise. So he has bet very small on the flop, and now he reraises very small, so its more likely that he wants to keep me in the hand. This same reraise is much less likely to be 88/99/TT, as it only gets called by big draws, and hands better than those. This is not hugely likely to be a draw because it looks like its designed to keep me in.

I could be wrong though, and he could be a complete moron with 88, but it looks like typical play from players who hit big hands.

careca

Fair enough. good points there.

I suppose its a problem with my play that I would find it hard to lay down AA in this spot (emphasise this spot !!). Anyway, lesson learned, now on to the next one.

fuzzbox

Careca - the deepness is a big factor too. We are 150 BBs deep, and he seems happy to go for it all.

If we were 50 or 75 BBs deep, then I'd probably get done over here a lot of the time.