Derby

Redlancer

Well it looks like Fallon is going with Haratio Nelson who is a class horse with a really big heart. However I would not rule out Papal Bull or Septimus to be honest. I think these two have a big part to play and more importantly we all know they will stay the distance and thats the most important thing in a Derby.

fade2black

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054932540

ChuckProphet

I'm thinking Sir Percy myself @ 8-1. He's got to be a e/w certainty.

masterK

With ground conditions currently good to soft and the recent plunges on Horatio Nelson and Septimus the favourite Visindar is fast becoming a backable price at 11/4 on Betfair, if he's still that on Satueday morning and the ground stays on the soft side of good he will be well worth a bet IMO. I'd worry about him on any faster conditions though having only run on softish ground and being out of Sindaar who probably preferred a bit of cut.

kincsem

Bismarck ...... Visindar

Corben Dallas

read somewhere that Fallon would be on Septimus. btw what trip is the derby?

MasterK!!!
Oh and its HARATIO Neslon. not >Hurricane Nelson Run
yur gettin yur Fallons mixed m8!

masterK

Corben Dallas wrote:

read somewhere that Fallon would be on Septimus. btw what trip is the derby?

MasterK!!!
Oh and its HARATIO Neslon. not >Hurricane Nelson Run
yur gettin yur Fallons mixed m8!

Well spotted, you have passed the spot the deliberate mistake test.:D

Hawk Wing

Going to be backing Horatio Nelson myself

Redlancer

If the ground was good to soft for the Derby I think Septimus is a ready made winner. I would fancy Sir Percy only for me his recent problems would be a worry. Septimus goes on that ground and will get the trip. Although I will end up going with Papal Bull if Septimus is a short price

ChuckProphet

Redlancer wrote:

If the ground was good to soft for the Derby I think Septimus is a ready made winner. I would fancy Sir Percy only for me his recent problems would be a worry. Septimus goes on that ground and will get the trip. Although I will end up going with Papal Bull if Septimus is a short price

According to his trainer Sir Percy is in better form than before the 2000 guineas. I really can't see why he should be twice the price of Horatio Nelson. He's beaten him twice already.
Anyone know the best price on Sir Percy? Can't accesss some of the sites.

finnpark

ChuckProphet wrote:

According to his trainer Sir Percy is in better form than before the 2000 guineas. I really can't see why he should be twice the price of Horatio Nelson. He's beaten him twice already.
Anyone know the best price on Sir Percy? Can't accesss some of the sites.

7/1 is best bookmaker price eg pp

kincsem

ChuckProphet wrote:

According to his trainer Sir Percy is in better form than before the 2000 guineas. I really can't see why he should be twice the price of Horatio Nelson. He's beaten him twice already.
Anyone know the best price on Sir Percy? Can't accesss some of the sites.

Yeah, but Horatio had excuses. One of them was he went too fast, and the other one was that he was not ready.

Sir Percy is about 8/1 on Betfair.

Septimus, Sir Percy, Championship Point, Dylan Thomas, Atlantic Waves. I think these are solid, the rest have chinks in their armour.

Jimmyq1

I hear from Ballydoyle that they expect Horatio Nelson to do it but there has been a fare few flops down through the years, tough to call.
Firstly has the french horse come up against anything and also will Sir Percy outstay him.
I'm going to stick with HN though, here's my choice.

1. Horation Nelson
2. Sir Percy
3. Septimus

fade2black

Just about everyone ignores Visindar. lol.

Redlancer

I think this Derby if ground conditions remain will be a slog, if conditions change then HN is in with a good shout as I think he has a similiar profile to Motivator. The latters connections decided against a tilt at the Guineas as they knew he did not have that sort of speed where I think Ballydoyle used it as a run for there lad with the Derby in mind.

I still like Septimus though. I will have to go through the rest put if there is a definite stayer at a big price I will go ew on them.

1.Septimus
2.Papal Bull
3.AN Other

Hawk Wing

Going is now Good at Epsom, this will suit Horato Nelson, Visindar has never raced at a track like Epsom, its new territory for him, he's not in Longchamps or Chantilly now

masterK

Hawk Wing wrote:

Going is now Good at Epsom, this will suit Horato Nelson, Visindar has never raced at a track like Epsom, its new territory for him, he's not in Longchamps or Chantilly now

But Sinndar did OK around Epsom. While this may not mean anything it's probably the only indicator we have as to how he'll handle the track.

Redlancer

I wouldnt back Visindar as I lumped on Shawanda last year and she was found out in the Arc having looked great previously. Visindar hasnt faced anything yet either.

Hawk Wing

Redlancer wrote:

I wouldnt back Visindar as I lumped on Shawanda last year and she was found out in the Arc having looked great previously. Visindar hasnt faced anything yet either.

I agree.

Anyone getting stuck into Ouija Board today? I reckon Ace has one big race in him

ChuckProphet

Hawk Wing wrote:

I agree.

Anyone getting stuck into Ouija Board today? I reckon Ace has one big race in him

Can't see Shirocco being beaten. Ace for the forecast.

fr wishy washy

Betting seems to suspended on Oaks & Derby on Betfair ???

Bluetonic

fr wishy washy wrote:

Betting seems to suspended on Oaks & Derby on Betfair ???

fr wishy washy wrote:

Oaks

There was a non runner, so markets were being readjusted

fr wishy washy wrote:

Derby

How many times do we have to go through this :rolleyes:

Overnight declaration stage is always around 10am/11am ish the previous day.

fr wishy washy

Bluetonic wrote:

How many times do we have to go through this :rolleyes:

Overnight declaration stage is always around 10am/11am ish the previous day.

Keep then on yeh,it was more the Oaks I meant.

wb

Im undecided on this one. Visindar looks great, but it would be very dangerous to ignore the O'Brein/Fallon combo, so I just cant rule Horatio Nelson out. Im strongly thinking of putting a big wedge on HR to be placed at 2.24.

Looking forward to it either way:)

iloveireland

like a few people have said already SIR PERCY has a great chance at a great price and is definaatly my nap of the day

fr wishy washy

I thought Somoulion gave the fav way too much to do,he was lobbing along but about 10 lenghts behind the leaders.

RedPeppers

Was sad to hear Horatio Nelson had to be put down which somewhat takes the gloss of what was a terrific race. Sir Percy was given a peach of a ride top stuff.

Crumbs

If Murtagh had kept closer to the rail (on Dylan Thomas), Sir Percy mightn't have been able to get through and Dwyer would be lambasted for giving him a poor ride. Papal Bull was coming with a similar late run to Sir Percy but twice had to be checked when having nowhere to go and ended up 10th.

Anyway the moral winner of the race (if that means anything) was Hala Bek who would undoubtedly have won had he not jinked right in the last furlong. Such a shame when the best horse doesn't win. A shame only heightened by the sad loss of Horatio Nelson.

It will probably turn out to be a moderate Derby but that doesn't take away from it being a very exciting race.

Morgans

fr wishy washy wrote:

I thought Somoulion gave the fav way too much to do,he was lobbing along but about 10 lenghts behind the leaders.

Visindar wasnt good enough. Sir Percy, it should be noted, was behind Visindar before making his challenge.

sudzs

Am so disappointed that they ran Horatio Nelson when Kieran Fallon had told them the hourse wasn't sound. Why???

kincsem

Crumbs wrote:

If Murtagh had kept closer to the rail (on Dylan Thomas), Sir Percy mightn't have been able to get through and Dwyer would be lambasted for giving him a poor ride. Papal Bull was coming with a similar late run to Sir Percy but twice had to be checked when having nowhere to go and ended up 10th.

Anyway the moral winner of the race (if that means anything) was Hala Bek who would undoubtedly have won had he not jinked right in the last furlong. Such a shame when the best horse doesn't win. A shame only heightened by the sad loss of Horatio Nelson.

It will probably turn out to be a moderate Derby but that doesn't take away from it being a very exciting race.

Excuses

There were excuses after the Dewhurst as well. I like it when people think horses with excuses will perform diffferently next time.

The highest rated horse going into the race won the race.

Crumbs

kincsem wrote:

Excuses

Yes, but are they valid excuses or invalid excuses?

I didn't back any of the horses I mentioned in my post, so I'm not moaning about some personal bad luck or anything like that. I was just commenting on the race.

I remember you posting months ago on backing Sir Percy for the Derby, so well done on that.

kincsem

Crumbs wrote:

Yes, but are they valid excuses or invalid excuses?

I didn't back any of the horses I mentioned in my post, so I'm not moaning about some personal bad luck or anything like that. I was just commenting on the race.

I remember you posting months ago on backing Sir Percy for the Derby, so well done on that.

I'm not big into horses with excuses.

Horses that get blocked behind horses often repeat that. Horses that lose by jinking, running left or right often repeat that too.
Horses are herd animals. They like to run in a group (for safety from predators).
Horses that fight their way to the front are rare. Some are professional and go for gaps. Some are slow to realise that the idea is to pass the other horses.
Some are smart and realise that if they are down the field they won't be beaten, but if they put in painful physical effort they will get beaten, so they don't try.

I also had a €20 treble on Race For The Stars 14/1 (1000 Guineas - 8th); Alexandrova 12/1 (Oaks - 1st); Sir Percy 16/1 (Derby - 1st). That would have been €66,000 if I got extra lucky.

I had €420 on Sir Percy at 16/1+ (some 17/1) and laid both Visindar (Derby favourite 5/2) and Riyalma (Oaks 2nd favourite) to not finish in the first three (5th/18 and 10th/10). Overall I made €7000 profit. I was lucky, but I also work very hard on pedigree analysis, an area where most punters have little knowledge.

This was the first year in the last ten that I did not go to Epsom for the Oaks and Derby.

I always rate all the horses in these races from what I think will be first down to what I think will be last. I'm not resting. I've updated my files with the results of the race for all finishers, and what I learn from that might of use next year. In the last 15 years my major wins were 12/1; 16/1; 25/1; 16/1 winners, a 15/1 double, and a 245/1 trifecta. I missed a 250/1 double by a head (1st won; 2nd beaten), a 200/1 and a 500/1 trifectas both by a neck.
The Oaks & Derby are great races for analysis, there is less form, and you must guess what might happen based on going and pedigree.

Sir Percy may not be rated highly coming out of this race, but he was locked in about tenth place from the end of the first furlong, was 11th into the straight, and made up a lot of ground. He had excuses for losing, but he didn't lose.