Monday

masterK

4:40 Chepstow

Trompette really caught the eye on her first UK flat start at Salisbury a couple of weeks ago, it took a while for her to settle but really finished well and looks like she'll improve for that run. She has some decent form over hurdles including being 5th in a grade 3 at Punchestown. The testing conditions today will suit. She's not going to be a great price, around 7/4 but I really can't see anything beating her.

fade2black

Strictly on the weights you'd have to fancy sweet candy in the 2:05 at Redcar. The favourite for this, Fathom Five beat Nota Libereta by a neck and Sweet Candy by under a length last time out. That day Sweet Candy was carrying one pound more than Fathom Five, today he carries 6 pounds less. Nota Libereta was carrying a pound less that day and is carrying 4 pounds less today, so we'll say a 3 pound swing today...versus Sweet Candy's 7 pounds. This is surely enough to swing things in the sweet one's favour.

The dark horse of the race is steelcut but that horse is not guaranteed to act on soft ground and the form of his debut wasn't exactly advertised when the 2nd that day went on to finish 4th of 5 in a similar event.

SteelCut might prove good enough today but if we use the facts on offer to us, and the bare evidence that's available to us, instead of speculating about what could be good enough, then Sweet Candy is our winner.

Corben Dallas

Few for today.

350 Redcar
Goodbye Mr Bond. talented sort this, expect it to do well. 2 very good runs latest. NAP

4pm Sandown
Banknote -Quality horse +Frankie booked, this generally carries a top jockey, danger is Spectait<whos a savage horse, should be between these two. Banknote might be good enuff to turn him over. NB

*Interesting one 325 SAND
Mubtaker >blew up/bad race lto? if that was a one off should figure at the sharp end. risk tho cause of last run. beware.(nice price?)

fade2black

Think Mubtaker would prefer the ground firmer and this is the furthest he's ever ran...there's enough unknowns there to make him a good lay option.

fade2black

And of course Steel Cut wins. It was inevitable really.

masterK

fade2black wrote:

And of course Steel Cut wins. It was inevitable really.

Unlucky mate, nothing worse than talking yourself out of a winner.

wb

3:25 Sandown

I think Vinando to be placed @ 2.52 is a steal. Good form, great Jockey on board, decent trainer, likes soft ground, and with questionmarks about Mubtaker and Cover up regarding the ground, I think it has a realistic chance of winning, yet alone being placed.

masterK

wbailey wrote:

3:25 Sandown

I think Vinando to be placed @ 2.52 is a steal. Good form, great Jockey on board, decent trainer, likes soft ground, and with questionmarks about Mubtaker and Cover up regarding the ground, I think it has a realistic chance of winning, yet alone being placed.

I'm with you here just on the win. I was waiting to see if the market would speak in his favour since he's stepping up in class and it has, I think he has a really great chance against some exposed looking horses.

wb

wbailey wrote:

3:25 Sandown

I think Vinando to be placed @ 2.52 is a steal. Good form, great Jockey on board, decent trainer, likes soft ground, and with questionmarks about Mubtaker and Cover up regarding the ground, I think it has a realistic chance of winning, yet alone being placed.

This just sums up my luck recently

fade2black

masterK wrote:

4:40 Chepstow

Trompette really caught the eye on her first UK flat start at Salisbury a couple of weeks ago, it took a while for her to settle but really finished well and looks like she'll improve for that run. She has some decent form over hurdles including being 5th in a grade 3 at Punchestown. The testing conditions today will suit. She's not going to be a great price, around 7/4 but I really can't see anything beating her.

You'd think there'd have to be something amiss with the horse after such a contrasting run to her last one.

hiscan

mr ned 9.00 ballinrobe

fade2black

Wayne point out Mr. Ned to me earlier when he was 7-1. We both agreed that the horse has dismal form...poor in a bumper, then poor in a maiden hurdle...They're certainly piling into it tonight...I really just don't know why. Obviously someone does.

finnpark

hiscan wrote:

mr ned 9.00 ballinrobe

Thanks hiscan, was 16/1 with William Hill now 7/2 best price so value certainly gone out of it but if I can get an EW price on it I will back it EW.

I think the fav has a great chance despite the jock:D

finnpark

Nevermind Hiscan, better luck next time and thanks for info. I broke even on the race as I had a small wager on the winner. Its extremely rare that any of these big gambles come in, if they did the bookies would be fcuked.

hiscan

fade2black wrote:

Wayne point out Mr. Ned to me earlier when he was 7-1. We both agreed that the horse has dismal form...poor in a bumper, then poor in a maiden hurdle...They're certainly piling into it tonight...I really just don't know why. Obviously someone does.

no good i think im going to follow nina carberry in the bumpers from now on

hiscan

finnpark wrote:

Nevermind Hiscan, better luck next time and thanks for info. I broke even on the race as I had a small wager on the winner. Its extremely rare that any of these big gambles come in, if they did the bookies would be fcuked.

true

masterK

fade2black wrote:

You'd think there'd have to be something amiss with the horse after such a contrasting run to her last one.

It was a very strange run alright, the ground couldn't be blamed as she had a good record in similar conditions over hurdles, a class 4 flat race should easily be in her compass based on her hurdles form and her last flat race. That's fillies for you I suppose, you just never know how they'll run.

finnpark

masterK wrote:

It was a very strange run alright

Oh its a strange game this alright.