Bubble hand from last nights s/e rebuy

ianmc38

6 left, 5 get paid. Blinds have just gone up to 800/1500. I am on the SB and have 9k or so left.

BB is chip leader on 35k or so. There is one uber shortstack sitting on 4.5k.

BB is tightish. Hasn't defended his blinds without genuine hands.

Folded to me on the SB and I push with 2c7c.

Standard?

fuzzbox

Sure, looks fine.

El Stuntman

happy with this

until he called with AA....?

wayfarer

Do you not think this is a pretty dangerous move? The BB is getting quite good odds. Also, he's the big stack and if he picks up that you could make this move with nothing, you could get called pretty often.

EDIT:

ianmc38 wrote:

BB is tightish. Hasn't defended his blinds without genuine hands.

Missed this! never mind

brianmc

wayfarer wrote:

Do you not think this is a pretty dangerous move? The BB is getting quite good odds. Also, he's the big stack and if he picks up that you could make this move with nothing, you could get called pretty often.

7 to 6 doesn't sound particularly good to me.

wayfarer

All he needs to be is +40% to win. There are a good few suited connectors or even off-suit connectors that could give him these odds here if he thinks you have something in the region of ace-rag. Hands like K-rag suited are getting reasonable odds if his rag has a bit of strength in it.

I think because the villan is tight, the push here is fine but against a typical big stack with a lot of gamble, it could be a risky play.

dirkey_wynne

I think it was a good move. Things get tight in these situations, and robbing blinds becomes very important, and especially if you feel the player in question has been tight.

i made a similar move on Saturday night Holdem/Omaha, bubble slot, raised from button with Q8 off against two tight players, called by one. Flop Q high, made a big bet, was called. Turned out he was AQ, I got rid of quite a bit of my stack and walked a bit later.

Pity, but I wouldn't have played it differently afterwards and that's the main thing. Win some, lose some.

mewso

No problem with the push here but I think the fold is fine too. You have 5 hands to make a move after this hand not to mention the short stack will probably be pushing before then. I make moves like this far less frequently when a player is on the verge of elimination.

ocallagh

Looks fine to me too. I might wait till the button as you pick up both the SB and the BB then..

I did a similar thing a few weeks back with 35o. everyone at the table was shocked...

fuzzbox

ocallagh wrote:

Looks fine to me too. I might wait till the button as you pick up both the SB and the BB then..

I did a similar thing a few weeks back with 35o. everyone at the table was shocked...

You still pick up the SB and BB here ... just the SB was once yours. Its in the pot now. Also - waiting until the button is theoretically fine, but sometimes (oftentimes) some1 raises before you and you have to muck.

2ndly ... I guess you got called with 35

5starpool

The main thing here is being first to act. I would feel a lot better here than on the button with a marginal hand if there was action. The next time you might get to act in an unopened pot might be utg and you know what the risks are there too. This is a situation where you do not want a caller, but you do need one soon.

I presume there was not a better spot in the recent past to do this?

Sidenote: Yay for me and my 1000th post. At least it was semi sensible and poker related.

brianmc

5starpool wrote:

The main thing here is being first to act. I would feel a lot better here than on the button with a marginal hand if there was action. The next time you might get to act in an unopened pot might be utg and you know what the risks are there too. This is a situation where you do not want a caller, but you do need one soon.

I presume there was not a better spot in the recent past to do this?

Sidenote: Yay for me and my 1000th post. At least it was semi sensible and poker related.

Your 1001st is probably going to be nonsense.

As 5starpool said, being first to act and the fact that the villain has to be smart enough (or dumb enough?) to realise he may have odds because you may be playing with random cards easily push your margin into +EV territory.

ollyk1

ocallagh wrote:

Looks fine to me too. I might wait till the button as you pick up both the SB and the BB then..

I did a similar thing a few weeks back with 35o. everyone at the table was shocked...

Was I at the table Niall? Was this the SE?

If so I was going to push with K8 sooted to get it heads up with you and freeroll for half the dead money until I saw the BB was calling so I can safely say I wasn't shocked I laughed when it was turned over but I wàsn't shocked. That's the problem with boards people have an idea of your pushing range in these situations.

Also Ian's image is quite loose aggressive in this situation so I'd be calling with a lot of hands in the BB (despite being a FT rock!:p ) I personally love a squeeze play with live cards against the blinds with one voluntary limper.

5starpool

brianmc wrote:

Your 1001st is probably going to be nonsense.

can't beat a 1 worder

ocallagh

fuzzbox wrote:

You still pick up the SB and BB here ... just the SB was once yours. Its in the pot now. Also - waiting until the button is theoretically fine, but sometimes (oftentimes) some1 raises before you and you have to muck.

2ndly ... I guess you got called with 35

good point! for some reason I like pushing on the button though.. feels like more of an achievement.. the cut off is even better!! and when UTG you always have the option of getting in first!

and yep - the BB insto-called with A8.

ollyk1 wrote:

Was I at the table Niall? Was this the SE?

yes! My strategy for the FT of any SE event is to just go all-in every second hand..

NickyOD

No one in this thread asked what the payout structure was OR what the sizes of the other stacks were. It's kind of importtant here!!

robinlacey

unless there's an even shorter stack who is just about to be knocked out stack sizes and payout aren't nearly as important as the original poster's stack size in making a decision here
i'd push btw,given that the bb is tight

NickyOD

robinlacey wrote:

unless there's an even shorter stack who is just about to be knocked out stack sizes and payout aren't nearly as important as the original poster's stack size in making a decision here
i'd push btw,given that the bb is tight

How close your stack is to the other 2 players is important depending on how flat the payouts are. I tihnk I would have folded my SB here and pushed into to their stacks the next 2 hands, but that really depends not only on the calling range of the BB but on what he thinks my pushing range is. If he knows I'll push with any 2, I tihnk its a fold.

fuzzbox

Even if he needs a top 50% hand to call (aka he knows you push any 2)

You have 8200 now.

Then 50% of the time you end the hand with 8200 + 2300 = 10500
50% of the time you have 35% equity of 18k 6300

10500 * .5 + 6300 * .5 = 5250 + 3150 = 8400

so its +EV ... if he calls with the top 50% of his hands (only barely though).

If that figure rises to the top 30% then your EV goes up by ...

10500 * .7 + 6300 * .3 = 7350 + 1890 = 9340

The more he folds, the better the play.
But even in a total vacuum, its +EV because of the size of the blinds.

ianmc38

I'd paid €30+5 and a €30 topup.

Payout was roughly:

1st - 950
2nd - 550
3rd - 330
4th - 220
5th - 110

I was the 2nd shortstack. Uber-shorty was gonna be big blind next hand.

He had 4.5k.
CL had 35k. Another guy had 12k or so and the other two people had roughly 20k each.

I'd say CLs range would be something like {66+, AT+, KJ+}

NickyOD

fuzzbox wrote:

Even if he needs a top 50% hand to call (aka he knows you push any 2)

You have 8200 now.

Then 50% of the time you end the hand with 8200 + 2300 = 10500
50% of the time you have 35% equity of 18k 6300

10500 * .5 + 6300 * .5 = 5250 + 3150 = 8400

so its +EV ... if he calls with the top 50% of his hands (only barely though).

If that figure rises to the top 30% then your EV goes up by ...

10500 * .7 + 6300 * .3 = 7350 + 1890 = 9340

The more he folds, the better the play.
But even in a total vacuum, its +EV because of the size of the blinds.

Ok so your EV of pushing here is over half a BB. What about the EV of folding this hand and then pushing the next 2 hands?

NickyOD

ianmc38 wrote:

I'd say CLs range would be something like {66+, AT+, KJ+}

meh. push.

fuzzbox

NickyOD wrote:

Ok so your EV of pushing here is over half a BB. What about the EV of folding this hand and then pushing the next 2 hands?

1. You can supply your own formula for that one ... jeez !!
2. You cant be guaranteed to be first in, in the next two hands (or the next any hands)

ianmc38

fuzzbox wrote:

2. You cant be guaranteed to be first in, in the next two hands (or the next any hands)

That was one of the reasons I pushed this hand, as i'd sat out the last two orbits because there was action before me on every hand (i wasn't desperate enough to push 48o UTG).

BB thought for a while and eventually called me with 99. The flop brought 2 of the most beautiful looking clubs i'd ever seen, but the turn and river brought nasty reds and that was all she wrote. I think the only possible thing that could have swayed me to fold ws the fact that there was a shorty about to lose half his stack to the blinds.

fuzzbox

The fact that he had to think when he had 99 makes this play pretty good against this guy ... haha.

ianmc38

fuzzbox wrote:

The fact that he had to think when he had 99 makes this play pretty good against this guy ... haha.

L L

Hitman Actual

ocallagh wrote:

good point! for some reason I like pushing on the button though.. feels like more of an achievement.. the cut off is even better!!

lol, I played my best steal ever from the cut-off with 23o in the scalps FT last Friday. And that was after a limper as well! So satisfying.