In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king

fuzzbox

Party 5/10 6-max
Have nothing much on villain and he just sat down.

Stacks of 1k each,

Preflop
Folded to villain in the SB, and he completes, I make it 35 in the BB with Ac8c.

Flop (70)
Kc 2c 2h
villain leads for 50, I make it 150 to play, villain calls

Turn (370)
As
Villain shoves .... wtf?

Our survey says?

sikes

the ace doesnt scare him and the action so far from his point of view could put you on a under pair to the king or a king. but i think he must be pushing with some kind of outs perhaps QJs in clubs.

he could be limping here with aa or kk or ak but after the raise preflop surely hes coming over the top. a2 is unlikely as he wont be pushing here with a house, with the possibility of a flush on the river.

i am calling here, with our villian drawing to three outs, a ten. (or else ak)

as you can probably tell, i dont play cash games, but would like to see what people think of this logic.

delanec8

QJc,Q10c is my guess.

If he called with a 2 it would more than likely have been A2 and he wouldnt have played it so fast on the turn.

He probably has you for the K and is representing the ace figuring even if you call he has a fair few outs.

Since you have the Ac we can rule out an ace generally because he would need AK or A2 in this spot to call the flop raise, which are both unlikely holdings.

Hectorjelly

Im confused by his action and not sure what to do really - so call. At worst you have a flush draw and I wouldnt be surprised if you were ahead.

Gholimoli

i really cant see you being behind here fuzz.
him having a two is very unlikely here .he would almost certainly reraise your flop raise if he did seen as there is a flush draw out there.
if he has a K then your ahead with your A.
if he has an with better kicker than yours it does not matter as your kicker has improved to K and i dont see him playing AK this way.
the push looks like some one trying to represent an A hoping you to fold .
maybe he has a flush /str draw as well but i really think your ahead.

cardshark202

This looks like a 2 to be honest. You may be drawing to 2 outs at worst, or 10 outs at best. I really can't see him having anything less than a two here.

Gholimoli

cardshark202 wrote:

This looks like a 2 to be honest. You may be drawing to 2 outs at worst, or 10 outs at best. I really can't see him having anything less than a two here.

what 2 do you think he has?
A2,or k2 which are the most likely 2s he could have would not push the turn.
he has a near locked hand why push like this?
23 maybe but you would have to assume that he has called raise with 23 preflop out of position.

Hectorjelly

If the flop was 77 I would be a lot more worried about trips,but its pretty unlikely that he called a raise with a hand that contains a 2. The most likely hands to call are A2 or 22, both of which are pretty unlikely given the action. The opponents line is suspicous and there is a draw there, so I dont think you can fold. He could well have a lower flush draw or a ****ed up KK or QQ. If hes beaten I would guess AK, but im still calling.

sikes

surely he is re-reraising oop on the flop with trips?

Hectorjelly

sikes wrote:

surely he is re-reraising oop on the flop with trips?

I doubt it, I wouldnt

delanec8

sikes wrote:

surely he is re-reraising oop on the flop with trips?

I would call aswell but then check raise all in on the turn not open push

sikes

Hectorjelly wrote:

I doubt it, I wouldnt

why not? he can hardly be afraid of a house here so he surely knows he has the best hand. so i dont think i would be giving a free card when we are going to be first to act anyway after the turn, so i think i would make my move now.

also we are not guarnteed to get the chance to check raise turn, giving him 2 free cards to a flush assuming that that is what he is afraid of.

Cianos

This could either be a big panic all in, or an overbet to make it look like a bluff.

I'm gonna take a risky guess and say he just has a pair of kings. Maybe KJ. He flops the pair of kings and bets into it, but you raise. He doesnt want to let go of the K, but he's also unsure of what you could have so he calls. The turn brings an ace and he panics...he doesnt want to give up the pot so he goes for the push to scare off an ace, and to also represent the 2. In short, he thinks that there is good enough reason to steal the pot there and then, even if you do have an ace.

NickyOD

Fold. He has a 2.

delanec8

NickyOD wrote:

Fold. He has a 2.

Any basis behind this?

RoundTower

Call. Something like QTc is more likely than a 2, and it's not improbable that he would check raise all in on that scare card as a bluff or semibluff.

ocallagh

I have no idea what to do. Sounds like you've had a tough time at the tables the last day or so Fuzz:)

His play does not make any sense whatsoever.... Whenever I can't figure out someone's betting pattern in a hand it's usually because they're bluffing and desperately trying to represent stuff..

I think I like Roundtowers synopsis the best, although I think he has the 2 about 20% of the time here.

Whatever the outcome it will be well worth your time writing a long note on this guy.

edit: In his eyes, there is a good chance you don't have the ace... just thinking about it more... i'm pretty sure he has a club draw, QcTc etc..

The Ace Face

Tough position...think a call is 50/50....I would call...but thats why I always lose at cash games! hard to see him with a 2 after preflop play..maybe 22...but why push, make it look like a bluff? What does he push with after seeing ace? hard to know with no info on villian...if it was on ppp I'd say he has QJ and hits the 10 on river for a st8 ( no clubs ). I think your ahead with good outs re flush....so call is my play but I don't understand his push....
slowplaying AA? I give up...

DocO

What if he called your raise of 25$ preflop after completing the blind with something like 25 24 23? isnt an excessive raise and perhaps he thinks he can outplay you (avoiding a high flop?).
When he hits his trips he leads out and only flat calls ur raise, which is very well disguised if he had it, risking the flush, but prob means he'l have more chance of getting paid off. now his scare cards are the clubs. It misses, but an ace comes, he has put u on an ace pre-flop and thinks that because his hand is so well disguised representing the ace he knows you have with an over bet, will induce a call?? Also no more free cards with the flush draw??
Im not sure if i even believe he has this, but just a different angle to look at . . .

Miles away?

NickyOD

delanec8 wrote:

Any basis behind this?

because this is party poker.

RoundTower

Incidentally if he has trips 3/4 of the time and a flush draw the other 1/4, you are getting the right price to call.

fuzzbox

Well, I too, was confused by such action. I thought AK, but then thought against it. I wondered if he had a 2, but then thought against it. I was confused ... so I called.

The river was 9c, giving me the nut-flush. Villain flipped over 4c3c and MHIG.

I guess he went for the "represent the Ace, but have lots of outs if called" action.

sikes

i dont like the way he played it at all.

hes pusing 815 into a pot of 370.

if he gets called he has 12 outs or is drawing dead as in this case.

how many times does he need us to fold to make this +EV knowing that if he is called he is at best 20% to win the hand?

i reckon its somewhere in the 80% tho i have no exact method for calculating this

cardshark202

sikes wrote:

i dont like the way he played it at all.

hes pusing 815 into a pot of 370.

if he gets called he has 12 outs or is drawing dead as in this case.

how many times does he need us to fold to make this +EV knowing that if he is called he is at best 20% to win the hand?

i reckon its somewhere in the 80% tho i have no exact method for calculating this

He certainly isnt drawing dead on this turn. He has 3 outs.

cardshark202

fuzzbox wrote:

Well, I too, was confused by such action. I thought AK, but then thought against it. I wondered if he had a 2, but then thought against it. I was confused ... so I called.

The river was 9c, giving me the nut-flush. Villain flipped over 4c3c and MHIG.

I guess he went for the "represent the Ace, but have lots of outs if called" action.

Would you have called with KcQc in that spot?

sikes

He certainly isnt drawing dead on this turn. He has 3 outs.

woops, thats true. and i doubt he is calling with the second nut flush on a paired board getting 1.4/1!

cardshark202

sikes wrote:

woops, thats true. and i doubt he is calling with the second nut flush on a paired board getting 1.4/1!

The board is K22A so he would have second pair.

sikes

i dont think that will sway him into a call tbh!

fuzzbox

cardshark202 wrote:

Would you have called with KcQc in that spot?

That would be hard ... the Kc is on the board.

cardshark202

fuzzbox wrote:

That would be hard ... the Kc is on the board.

If the hand played out the same and the turn was the Ac and the flopped K was the Kd say?

MadsL

OT: Kudos on the Tom Waits thread title