Thursday

fade2black

A lucky 15 for those inclined. Once thought of a silly bet these little accums have been made slightly more appealing by the offer of treble the odds on one winner by most firms. Not for all though...

Chester 2:50 Dragon Dancer
Newton Abbot 4:20 Nice Horse
Clonmel 7:35 FrenchFurze Lad
Newton Abbot 3:45 Grey Brother.

Info about all the horses can be found by searching through some of my old threads but I'll give you a brief synopsis.

Dragon Dancer is a horse who I believe has plenty of ability. Still a maiden but improving with every run I believe he'd have a great chance against a very unworthy 5/4 fav in Papal Bull. People tend to over react about horses like this one with his fancy connections and his matching shoes...

Nice Horse promised a lot in bumpers but it's fair to say he never really delivered on those promises...however, as much as he's a bit of a mad thing, he does have ability and he's been slipping pretty steadily down the grades...The Pipe yard is in good form at the mo and there's no shortage of money for this one this morning...

FrenchFurze Lad...Owner says the horse has an excellent chance of winning...first time over obstacles last time out and that was also his first run in a long time...entitled to improve after both and Ruby significantly takes the ride today.

Grey Brother...the subject of much debate on this forum not so long ago...was backed from 16's into 6s and was brought down in a pile up when travelling well. Watched it next time out and there was no show from it. Is out again today though and if the money comes for it, today could well be the day...

Some fancy prices and I'm quietly confident.

digiman

Didn't want to mess up the subscribed sticky, but that is a good idea there finnpark that you posted up. They are great odds on Will Hill for Frenchfurze Lad, considering that Boyles have it at 6/1 and PP at 7/1. I dont think that there is much point in looking at Betfair at this time of the day for this particular race, as there just has really been no money traded on it today yet (€260), that market should start to show some proper odds later in the day. I will be following it to se how the odds progress

DeadParrot

fade2black wrote:

A lucky 15 for those inclined. Once thought of a silly bet these little accums have been made slightly more appealing by the offer of treble the odds on one winner by most firms. Not for all though...

Chester 2:50 Dragon Dancer
Hamilton 7:20 Nice Horse
Clonmel 7:35 FrenchFurze Lad
Newton Abbot 3:45 Grey Brother.

.

Nice horse is running at 4:20 at NEWTON ABBOT

fade2black

Ah yeah...I originally had Royal Bandit in that but I changed it to nice horse cause Royal Bandit has let me down before...Thanks for that Deadparrot...forgot to change it. We'll keep you.

scargill

Just a reminder about a horse I was told about a few weeks ago by a friend of mine. Trainer has been waiting for the right ground for a while and seems to have it this evening in Clonmel.

6:35 Trikirk - is 'pulling trees' at home (his words not mine!!). They are very happy with the horse's progress after the win it had on its return after a break of two years. The distance is a bit of an unknown and is running against 2m+ specialists. They reckon he will have no trouble seeing out the 2 miles.

I'll be having a smallish e/w bet today. Its around 6/1 at the moment.

Might do an e/w double with fades pick above (Frenchfurze Lad)

fade2black

It's working out to be a nice each way lucky 15 One winner and two places so far.

finnpark

scargill wrote:

Just a reminder about a horse I was told about a few weeks ago by a friend of mine. Trainer has been waiting for the right ground for a while and seems to have it this evening in Clonmel.

6:35 Trikirk - is 'pulling trees' at home (his words not mine!!). They are very happy with the horse's progress after the win it had on its return after a break of two years. The distance is a bit of an unknown and is running against 2m+ specialists. They reckon he will have no trouble seeing out the 2 miles.

I'll be having a smallish e/w bet today. Its around 6/1 at the moment.

Might do an e/w double with fades pick above (Frenchfurze Lad)

Yes, I noticed it was the wrong distance alright. I may have an EW punt at 6s since they are paying 4 places.

I have backed Frenchfurze Lad on Betfair at 14/1, will hill at 14/1 and bet365 at 14/1 and have layed him off on betfair at 11/1. But wait for this: I also backed him at 28/1 on Betfair. Now, Im not sure what to do because at the moment if it wins I stand to win a few grand but if it losses I will lose some money. Im not sure how much to lay him off for. I can easily lay him off enough to make a profit whether he wins or loses but Im not sure how much, I will probably try to lay him off so that I come out even if he wins and I make a lot if he loses but Im not sure.

digiman

finnpark wrote:

I have backed Frenchfurze Lad on Betfair at 14/1, will hill at 14/1 and bet365 at 14/1 and have layed him off on betfair at 11/1. But wait for this: I also backed him at 28/1 on Betfair. Now, Im not sure what to do because at the moment if it wins I stand to win a few grand but if it losses I will lose some money. Im not sure how much to lay him off for. I can easily lay him off enough to make a profit whether he wins or loses but Im not sure how much, I will probably try to lay him off so that I come out even if he wins and I make a lot if he loses but Im not sure.

I put a few quid on him this morning on Will Hill at 14/1, its looking like a nice price now as he currently 15/2 on Will Hill and 7/1 most places. His price seems to be dropping all the time on Betfair, you were very lucky to get 28/1 on Betfair. You should wait a while longer i think as it looks like it will drop some more. Another thing to note is that on Betfair he seems to have the most money backed so far.

finnpark

digiman wrote:

I put a few quid on him this morning on Will Hill at 14/1, its looking like a nice price now as he currently 15/2 on Will Hill and 7/1 most places. His price seems to be dropping all the time on Betfair, you were very lucky to get 28/1 on Betfair. You should wait a while longer i think as it looks like it will drop some more. Another thing to note is that on Betfair he seems to have the most money backed so far.

I could have got a lot more on him at 28/1:( . Theres was a good bit more there - I thought it was a trick or something but it shows in the Betfair window that it was just trading. I don't think it will win - its form says that so Im going to lay the hell out of it now so that I make a good profit if it loses or come out even if it wins.

RedPeppers

Backed frenchFurze lad at 14'a aswell with Hill's. cant believe they were giving it at 14s while paddys and boyles were quoting 7s and 6s. Fingers crossed. Did it in double with Trikirk aswell 105/1!!

finnpark

finnpark wrote:

I could have got a lot more on him at 28/1:( . Theres was a good bit more there - I thought it was a trick or something but it shows in the Betfair window that it was just trading. I don't think it will win - its form says that so Im going to lay the hell out of it now so that I make a good profit if it loses or come out even if it wins.

Excellent. Couln'd have turned out better for me. Thanks fade. I think I will chance some more trading in the future. Ive made more from trading this horse today than I have from backing the last 2 weeks. The price dropped from 14s to 10s on Bet365 within 5mins of me sticking a 100 on - if a few of us did this every day we really could make a lot trading ie create a false gamble and then lay off. Any1 interested?

masterK

fade2black wrote:

FrenchFurze Lad...Owner says the horse has an excellent chance of winning...first time over obstacles last time out and that was also his first run in a long time...entitled to improve after both and Ruby significantly takes the ride today.

He was a shade unlucky not to be placed, he landed flat footed after last losing his forward momentum which cost him a place.

fade2black

I personally believe that the horse ran a pretty decent race, nobody culd have predicted the newcomer shooting off 30 lengths from the start. Although no money was won tonight I think the horse will do himself justice next time.