Monday Tips

finnpark

Since my laying system has given 7 out 8 Irish lays unplaced I have decided to lay these not to be even placed from now on. The liability for these on Betfair are usually extremely low so its worth a go. One of my lays was unplaced at 1/2 and this would have been the same as about a 12/1 winner on Betfair so here we go:


Place Lays - Lay not to be placed
Polished Gem 3.30pm Currah 6/4 Place Lay (1/3 Place Lay) (2 places as 4 in race - sure it wont win)
Straycat Strut - Limerick 3rd Race 8/1 Place Lay (7/4 Place Lay)

scojones

I've decided to start over with a new system I'm currently working on. Positive results after the first two days so I decided to post it here. Knowing my luck it'll go tits up today. Anyway, today's qualifiers are:

Newcastle 4.15 Viva Volta
Limerick 4.40 Five Seven Live
Curragh 2.30 Tofana
Kempton 5.55 Banknote

finnpark

finnpark wrote:

Since my laying system has given 7 out 8 Irish lays unplaced I have decided to lay these not to be even placed from now on. The liability for these on Betfair are usually extremely low so its worth a go. One of my lays was unplaced at 1/2 and this would have been the same as about a 12/1 winner on Betfair so here we go:


Place Lays - Lay not to be placed
Polished Gem 3.30pm Currah 6/4 Place Lay (1/3 Place Lay) (2 places as 4 in race - sure it wont win)
Straycat Strut - Limerick 3rd Race 8/1 Place Lay (7/4 Place Lay)

More Place Lays

Most of these are odds on to lay place so not much risk!

Simple Exchange 4.30 Curragh 8/1 Place Lay (2/1 Place Lay)
Montana Bay 5.40 Limerick 4/1 Place Lay (Evens Place Lay)
Forthefarmer 5.40pm Limerick 11/2 Place Lay (6/4 Place Lay)
Amber Light 4.40pm Limerick 8/1 Lay Place (2/1 Place Lay)
Smart Contender 4.40pm Limerick 14/1 Lay Place (7/2 Place Lay)
Offshore Account 2.50pm Downroyal 5/1 Lay Place (Place Lay evens)
Natural Storm 3.50pm Downroyal 9/2 Lay Place (Place Lay Evens)
Bravery 3.50pm Downroyal 7/2 Lay Place (4/5 Place Lay)
What A Lad 4.20pm Sownroyal 5/1 Lay Place (Evens Place Lay)
Essifer 4.50pm Downroyal 11/2 Lay Place (6/4 Place Lay)
Arctic Spectacle 5.20pm Downroyal 3/1 Lay Place (4/6 Place Lay)

scargill

finnpark wrote:

Polished Gem 3.30pm Currah 6/4 Place Lay (1/3 Place Lay) (2 places as 4 in race - sure it wont win)

gulp - i'm sure it will win and have backed it accordingly !! bugger!

finnpark

scargill wrote:

gulp - i'm sure it will win and have backed it accordingly !! bugger!

What can I say. Sorry about that but my laying system is extremely accurate. It told me that this lay today was a pure donkey and it didn't let me down as I collected almost 300 euro on this - almost the same as a 3/1 winner:D .

Stone cold last, was beaten after 3f mark. If you want to make your money bacl lay Simple Exchange in 4.30pm at Curragh. That should make you your money back.

scojones

Excuse my ignorance but can you really call lays tips? You have some odds on lays listed above. Isn't this just the same as backing odds on? I thought you didn't back anything under 2/1?

finnpark

sjones wrote:

Excuse my ignorance but can you really call lays tips? You have some odds on lays listed above. Isn't this just the same as backing odds on? I thought you didn't back anything under 2/1?

Its much easier to making money laying than backing despite the fact that you are mostly laying at odds on. Backing at odds is different in that you need it to come first to collect, 1 mistake and your money can be gone.

My lay NAP today was 5/4 to back whcih was about 1/3 to back place so was equivalent as a 3/1 winner. My only winner today was at downroyal where 5 horses fell, 3 of which were in front of the lay.

For example Artic Specticle will probably go off around 9/4 in the 5.20pm at Downroyal, laying it to be placed at 1.48 is not much of a risk, I will be laying it at 1pt not to win at 9/4 and 2pt not to be placed at 1/2.

I know you are saying that lays aren't real tips as such but if they finish last at odds of 5/4 they are certainly worth laying;)

joebhoy1916

Why do ye talk about laying horses when no
bookies in Ireland does it?

jimmyboy

joebhoy1916 wrote:

Why do ye talk about laying horses when no
bookies in Ireland does it?

I think you are able to lay horses on Betfair, bit I'm not sure.
well done finn very accurate system.I was going to pick 3 of the horses you have down but then decided not too when I saw your comment.well done;)

finnpark

joebhoy1916 wrote:

Why do ye talk about laying horses when no
bookies in Ireland does it?

There is a website called www.betfair.com which allows you to do it! Surely no one backs in bookies anymore, with the Internet you can shop about for best odds without needing an aeroplane to do so.

5.20pm Downroyal Lay was UNPLACED so its time for another withdrawl from my Betfair account.:D

Since ther have been so many complaints about me posting my lays I will not be posting anymore lays on here, I will just make a fortune on them myself.

joebhoy1916

Fin when your laying horses how much do ya
usually put on?

jimmyboy

there's no need for that. you should start a new thread and we can see how your system is doing. It saved me alot today anyway

finnpark

jimmyboy wrote:

I think you are able to lay horses on Betfair, bit I'm not sure.
well done finn very accurate system.I was going to pick 3 of the horses you have down but then decided not too when I saw your comment.well done;)

No Problem.

I gave about 13 or 14 lays today and only 1 won. The only winner won when 5 horses fell in the race, willie mullins was going to win it but his horse fell.

Anyway, my betfair account is bulging so I need to go to releive it:)

finnpark

joebhoy1916 wrote:

Fin when your laying horses how much do ya
usually put on?

It depends on the price and more importantly it depends how sure I am but if a horse is 1/2 to lay place and Im sure it will be at the other end of the field then £200 stake. Most of today's lys were just £50 lay £100 lay place.

Anyway, Im glad that I saved you money today, the fact was that most of the above horses were not out to win today. For next weekend I think Aiden O'Brien will have winners, typical calm before the storm today;) .

wb

As an experienced layer, I feel it is my duty to butt-in here, because a lot of what is going on here is simply going to lose people money.

Firstly, a lot of the prices you quote were not betfair. I was looking at a lot of these horses today, and the betfair lay prices were higher than this. A screen shot of your betfair p&l would prove me wrong though. Secondly, to get the place price, it looks like you have simply divided the price by a quater or a fifth. Place laying does not work like this. Did you check the betfair prices finn? THE PLACE MARKET DOES NOT WORK LIKE THE EACH-WAY ONE.

You state that:

Most of today's lys were just £50 lay £100 lay place.

So.......Using the above backers stakes:



Montana Bay 5.40 Limerick 4/1 Place Lay (Evens Place Lay)
LOST €100 on the place lay.

Offshore Account 2.50pm Downroyal 5/1 Lay Place (Place Lay evens)LOST €100 on the place lay

Bravery 3.50pm Downroyal LOST €100 on the place lay


What A Lad 4.20pm Sownroyal 5/1 Lay Place (Evens Place Lay) LOST €250 win lay, LOST €100 place lay.


And this is using your very dubious betfair prices….


Later you state:

5.20pm Downroyal Lay was UNPLACED so its time for another withdrawl from my Betfair account.

YOU LOST MONEY...WHY WOULD YOU BE WITHDRAWING???

No Problem.

I gave about 13 or 14 lays today and only 1 won. .

Forgetting something???

Anyway, my betfair account is bulging so I need to go to releive it

Give us all a break finn.




To anyone considering doing finns lays:

1) From what I can see, the betfair prices are very dubious
2) Why does he tell everyone he won €300 on one particular nag, and forget to mention the hundreds he lost on others
3) He is a novice at horse racing - see his thread in feedback, so he is not at it long enough to be advising everyone
4) Ask him for a screenshot of his betfair P&L


Finn was banned and let back on for some reason. Letting him back on was a bad decision in my opinion. If the other areas of the forum had people giving false 'advice' that will cost them money, they would be banned outright.

Sorry…. But I had to get that off my chest.

Rant over:)

scojones

But Waye, his betfair account is bulging! Didn't you hear, he's the new PaddyPower.

On a serious note, finn has been known to mislead people on here. Now, I'm not an experienced layer by any means. I've only laid a few horses in my time, but I'd rather forget those mingers Finn, I think you should back this up because if you are misleading people on here you know what's going to happen.

chump

wbailey wrote:

So.......Using the above backers stakes:



Montana Bay 5.40 Limerick 4/1 Place Lay (Evens Place Lay)
LOST €100 on the place lay.

Offshore Account 2.50pm Downroyal 5/1 Lay Place (Place Lay evens)LOST €100 on the place lay

Bravery 3.50pm Downroyal LOST €100 on the place lay


What A Lad 4.20pm Sownroyal 5/1 Lay Place (Evens Place Lay) LOST €250 win lay, LOST €100 place lay.

Simple Exchange 4.30 Curragh 8/1 Place Lay (2/1 Place Lay) - Unplaced
Montana Bay 5.40 Limerick 4/1 Place Lay (Evens Place Lay)
Forthefarmer 5.40pm Limerick 11/2 Place Lay (6/4 Place Lay) - can't confirm but seems Unplaced
Amber Light 4.40pm Limerick 8/1 Lay Place (2/1 Place Lay) - 7th
Smart Contender 4.40pm Limerick 14/1 Lay Place (7/2 Place Lay) - 5th
Offshore Account 2.50pm Downroyal 5/1 Lay Place (Place Lay evens)
Natural Storm 3.50pm Downroyal 9/2 Lay Place (Place Lay Evens) - can't confirm but seems Unplaced
Bravery 3.50pm Downroyal 7/2 Lay Place (4/5 Place Lay)
What A Lad 4.20pm Sownroyal 5/1 Lay Place (Evens Place Lay)
Essifer 4.50pm Downroyal 11/2 Lay Place (6/4 Place Lay) - can't confirm but seems Unplaced
Arctic Spectacle 5.20pm Downroyal 3/1 Lay Place (4/6 Place Lay) - 5th

No offence here, I reckon finnpark talks up himself farrr too much, but you can't just quote a handful of his results and say they suck...

And...

Polished Gem 3.30pm Currah 6/4 Place Lay (1/3 Place Lay) (2 places as 4 in race - sure it wont win) - can't confirm but seems Unplaced
Straycat Strut - Limerick 3rd Race 8/1 Place Lay (7/4 Place Lay) - can't confirm but seems Unplaced

Also from my experience PLACE prices on betfair aren't too often considerably higher than the 1/4 or 1/5 offered by the bookies. Sometimes worse, sometimes (for rank outsiders) a lot better.

Also wbailey you say "And this is using your very dubious betfair prices…." referring to the losses finnpark made on the quoted races. But finnpark said "Most of today's lys were just £50 lay £100 lay place. " and from this he could as easily mean his exposure in each of the lays is either 50, or 100. And if that was the case the actual prices wouldn't effect the loss, only the win.

I think you're being too harsh on him, as I haven't done the sums, but from the above it seems he didn't do too badly.

wb

Hi Chump,

The other selections that I did not highlight were sucessfull lays. Well done to him

While finn made an overall profit on the day, The main reason that I posted was because I wanted to respond to this comment:

I gave about 13 or 14 lays today and only 1 won

Fair enough, only one won, but the ones I highlighted were placed - meaning that they were losing bets.

Regarding the prices, that is open to argument, but I am laying long enough to see that many of them are dubious. Again, I will admit I could be wrong here. For Example, One of the horses that cost him twice (the win and the place) WHAT A LAD - This was trading at 13/2 up until the off, which would normally be about 8.8 on betfair, but lest use the SP, which was 6/1:
A 6/1 shot on betfair usually trades at about 8.2(about 20% higher than the bookie), but finn managed to get him at 5/1 on betfair - Again, he says the price of this for the place was evens - normally an 8.2 shot would trade in the place market at about 2.5. This horse won, but because of the short price that he offered, he saved a coupe of hundred. hmmmm.


The ones I highligted were lays that finn forgot to mention. Fair play to him if he did profit, but he should post LOSING results as well as win ones, as a lot of people wont bother checking and think that he had 1 losing bet from 14, where in reality he had 5 losing bets.

While one single day is nothing to go on when laying, posting ALL results, including place ones would be helpful.

One more point,

Comments like this:

Lay was UNPLACED so its time for another withdrawl from my Betfair account.

If finn knew anything about lay staking, he would know not to withdraw after every winning bet. He would let the bank build up, then withdraw a single betting base periodicaly.

Since ther have been so many complaints about me posting my lays I will not be posting anymore lays on here, I will just make a fortune on them myself.

- This is pure childish. Someone asks him a question and he tries to hold us to ransom (not that I follow his system anyway)

Anyway, my betfair account is bulging so I need to go to releive it

Give me a break..


Finn, on a personal note, If your system is sucessful, fair play to you BUT, you must post ALL results, not just the winning ones. In one of your posts, you stated that a horse had won you €300 quid. Well done. Why did you ignore the losing bets?

Regards,

Wayne

finnpark

Interesting comment Mr Bailey.

1. I post my lays on here for others to follow, I dont force you to lay the same selections as I do nor do I force you to back my tips. I have nothing to prove but since my lays have caused quite a stir I will keep them to myself in future.

2. I layed the above for different amounts. I wouldnt lay a 6/1 shot, lay to be placed only and it was shorter than 6/1 too at the time. The only reason it won was down to others falling.

3.
Polished Gem 3.30pm Currah 6/4 Place Lay (1/3 Place Lay) (2 places as 4 in race - sure it wont win)+£300 approx
Straycat Strut - Limerick 3rd Race 8/1 Place Lay (7/4 Place Lay) +£50
Simple Exchange 4.30 Curragh 8/1 Place Lay (2/1 Place Lay) - Unplaced +£150 Was extremely sure
Montana Bay 5.40 Limerick 4/1 Place Lay (Evens Place Lay) -£65 approx
Forthefarmer 5.40pm Limerick 11/2 Place Lay (6/4 Place Lay) - can't confirm but seems Unplaced +£50
Amber Light 4.40pm Limerick 8/1 Lay Place (2/1 Place Lay) - 7th +£50
Smart Contender 4.40pm Limerick 14/1 Lay Place (7/2 Place Lay) - 5th +£50
Offshore Account 2.50pm Downroyal 5/1 Lay Place (Place Lay evens) -£70
Natural Storm 3.50pm Downroyal 9/2 Lay Place (Place Lay Evens) -+£50
Bravery 3.50pm Downroyal 7/2 Lay Place (4/5 Place Lay) -£45 approx
What A Lad 4.20pm Sownroyal 5/1 Lay Place (Evens Place Lay) -£60 approx
Essifer 4.50pm Downroyal 11/2 Lay Place (6/4 Place Lay) +£50
Arctic Spectacle 5.20pm Downroyal 3/1 Lay Place (4/6 Place Lay) - 5th +£300 Sure Sure Sure - The "Winner" broke its leg in 1st furlong

4. "System" - yes I may have lied there but I won't be posting any more lays before someone susses out a trend;)

On top of the above I layed Ace for small amount and backed Cosmic String Each Way (at only 6/1 mind you). I also lost money on the horse that broke leg in Downroyal.

My total profit was over a 1k sterling.


I cant understand why Im causing such a stir - were you backing these or something. Anyway, I said £25 per lay £50 per place lay as a guide not that I see it matters. I can give you a sure lay once every week if you want but I aint posting it up here in case I get in trouble.

jimmyboy

Finn I dont think there is need to stop posting your lays. they are very accurate and I think you should start a thread.:)

finnpark

jimmyboy wrote:

Finn I dont think there is need to stop posting your lays. they are very accurate and I think you should start a thread.:)

I will PM you with any I have , I should have 1 at least Wednesday. I get ones for English racing too but they wont be as accurate. I should have 1 at least for every Irish meeting and some will be more sure than others. So far, Ive had 19 successful from 21 which aint bad, most are unplaced. I will have a good few for next meeting at Curragh and should have loads for galway including win tips.

jimmyboy

cheers finn.:D

wb

Howdy finn. A couple more points before I put this to bed. Yes, you are correct, I dont follow it, so I suppose I dont have much right to comment, but I just feel that you always seems to ignore your losing bets.

but since my lays have caused quite a stir I will keep them to myself in future.

This would serve no purpose IMO. Firstly, I dont follow them, so it makes no odds to me. (I dont follow ANY tips that dont post full profit and loss) Secondly, you seem to have one or two followers, so there is no need to let them down, because I asked a few questions. Thirdly, if your system is as good as you say it is, you will prove me wrong - and I will have to eat my words. I love looking at everyones selections here, even though I wont back or lay most of them - All I'm saying is that you should advise stakes, and record losing bets as well as winning ones.

I layed the above for different amounts. I wouldnt lay a 6/1 shot, lay to be placed only and it was shorter than 6/1 too at the time. The only reason it won was down to others falling.

Fair enough... but if you are not using level stakes, perhaps you should advise people what stakes to use, as they dont know how your system works.

4. "System" - yes I may have lied there but I won't be posting any more lays before someone susses out a trend;)

I dont really understand what you are tying to say here. Is it a system, or is it method laying?

My total profit was over a 1k sterling.

The results you posted were using €50 & €100 stakes. taking the losers into account, you could not have made this. You made €1050 EXCLUDING the losing bets, according to YOUR post.

I cant understand why Im causing such a stir - were you backing these or something

No, I dont do lay selections that do not include staking advice or long term P&L figures.


I realise that you are a novice at horse racing finn, but my main point here is that you should record all bets, win or lose. You should also advise on stakes. If anyone was following your system today, using level stakes (no other way was advised) they would have lost a fortune on What a lad, where you only lost €60. Just seems a bit convenient thats all.

How about a staking plan?

Or have I upset you that you wont post anymore...

finnpark

CHECK YOUR PMs!!!

scojones

sjones wrote:

I've decided to start over with a new system I'm currently working on. Positive results after the first two days so I decided to post it here. Knowing my luck it'll go tits up today. Anyway, today's qualifiers are:

Newcastle 4.15 Viva Volta
Limerick 4.40 Five Seven Live
Curragh 2.30 Tofana
Kempton 5.55 Banknote

Five Seven Live wins today at 9/2

jimmyboy

cheers finn.

finnpark

jimmyboy wrote:

cheers finn.

I will send you another 1 by PM later!

fade2black

Be careful you don't develop a tick with all that winking.