Punchestown Wednesday

wb

I think I'll get this started

The Gold Cup @ 3.50:


I think that War Of Attrition is a value lay here at 2.0. I have been looking at his past performances, and while I must admit that most of them are second to none, I think the hype of Cheltenham has caught up with him, and that this price is far too short. Conor O Dwyer has a poor record here compared to the like of Walsh and Geraghty. Similarly, Mouse Morris' record here is not outstanding. While it must be acknowleged that the horse has won over various types of ground, and has a very real chance, in my opinion there is more value backing both course and distance winner Forget the Past - currently trading @ 7.8 to win, or 2.16 to be placed. Forget the past also boasts great form, and like War Of Attrition, has won on various types of ground. Geraghty has a good record at puchestown (20%) and the O'Brien yard's form here is very healthy indeed. I'm not saying that War of Attrition does not have a very good chance, but even money simply does not reflect good value and even if it does win, laying using sensible stakes at even money won't break the bank. I feel that using similar stakes backing Forget the Past may prove to be the value bet for this one.

Selections:

Back: Forget the Past
Lay: War Of Attrition

scojones

3.50 Hi Cloy is a value each way bet tomorrow. BOS is back in Ireland now but I don't think I can go near it. It's had a busy March and April and I don't think it will win tomorrow. War of Attrition is currently 10/11 and I feel that is too short for me. I don't like Geraghty's style either, as discussed on other threads, so I won't be going near Forget The Past. An each way bet on Hi Cloy at 10/1 is what I have decided to go with.

4.25 This race is between Euro Leader and Ross River and it is hard to seperate them considering Ruby is back on Euro Leader who has won 3 out of the 5 mounts he's had on it. I'll most likely be doing some dutching on the both of them.

5.00 Hairy Molly had a good victory in Cheltenham beating some of these runners, such as Ballytrim who came 13th in that race. Hairy Molly is up in the weights but if it can win what was an easy enough contest on heavy ground carrying 11 - 9 then 12 - 0 should not be too too big a challenge for it on good ground, as long as it can reproduce the form it showed at Cheltenham.

5.35 Tiger Cry gets my vote. It was second home last time out to Publican, who I tipped on boards that day and who won under an absolutely amazing ride by McCoy. Tiger Cry was closing and closing fast. This gives it the form to beat these today. Rubberdubber is a worry, and as the racingpost website says, it's the sole UK challenger in this race with McCoy on board.

6.10 Whyso Mayo beat First Down Jets at Cheltenham. Seeing as First Down Jets didn't go on to score or even impress in it's next outing I should be very careful with what I do here. The distance, going, and weight are not a problem here today for either of these, and if Cheltenham form can be reproduced then both of these should be in the top three. Once again I'm dutching on these two.

wb

sjones wrote:

BOS is back in Ireland now but I don't think I can go near it. It's had a busy March and April and I don't think it will win tomorrow. .

I'm with you on that one sjones. I used to love this horse, but I reckon he is past it. Foolishly, I kept backing him for sentimental reasons, hoping he would do a comeback, but this has got to stop, and I wont be backing him tomorrow. (cue BOS romping home now that I said that:eek: )

scojones

wbailey wrote:

I'm with you on that one sjones. I used to love this horse, but I reckon he is past it. Foolishly, I kept backing him for sentimental reasons, hoping he would do a comeback, but this has got to stop, and I wont be backing him tomorrow. (cue BOS roming home now that I said that:eek: )

Hehe knowing my luck it will romp home. Nah seriously though, luckily I didn't back it in it's last three races. I know alot of people who were on it for the exact same reasons as yourself. The reason I backed Garvivonnian and Powerstation last time out was for exactly that, sentimental reasons and I got burnt heavily. I'm done with that sort of betting, it was betting with my heart and not my head. The fact is, if it had won it's last two outings I would still be opposing it on Wednesday because at the end of the day, it has had a hard two months regardless of how it ran and I just can't see it winning. Best of luck with Forget The Past mate

mchurl

wbailey wrote:

I'm with you on that one sjones. I used to love this horse, but I reckon he is past it. Foolishly, I kept backing him for sentimental reasons, hoping he would do a comeback, but this has got to stop, and I wont be backing him tomorrow. (cue BOS romping home now that I said that:eek: )

Im Exactly the same!!!:D

finnpark

Be under no illusion, Beef or Salmon can win tommorow. Its only 2 months ago that it demolished Hedgehunter is a similar sized field. Ok, Hedgehunter wasn't fully fit etc but I wouldn't write off BOS tomorrow. I have never backed BOS in my life and wont be tomorrow but I think I will stay away from backing this race.

WOA is a great horse, won the english Gold Cup by a mile - very hard to see get beat.

Forget the Past may have improvement left in him, he needs to improve a lot to have any chance.

It all depends on how the trainers have kept the horses - are still close to peak, are they too tired etc We can only guess.

Verdict: Beef or Salmon, WOA. But dont back this race as the odds are crap and you cant really back EW in a 7 horse field.

Good Luck:)

scojones

finnpark wrote:

Be under no illusion, Beef or Salmon can win tommorow.

It all depends on how the trainers have kept the horses - are still close to peak, are they too tired etc We can only guess.

Verdict: Beef or Salmon, WOA. But dont back this race as the odds are crap and you cant really back EW in a 7 horse field.

Good Luck:)

But that's exactly it. BOS has had a hard two months since that race. I really can't see it winning because of this. You're staying away from the race and that's probably the best thing to do. However, I really do fancy Hi Cloy. I've done a very small e/w bet and a forecast on WOA first, Hi Cloy second. I don't see Hi Cloy winning it, but I do think it will come second.

retenzo

Usually id edge towards hi cloy however do you think he'll have the stamina for the 3m trip? Thats my only concern....i might just keep my money for another race and spectate on this one!!

scojones

retenzo wrote:

Usually id edge towards hi cloy however do you think he'll have the stamina for the 3m trip? Thats my only concern....i might just keep my money for another race and spectate on this one!!

It's a valid concern. It's untested over that distance so who knows if it will last. However, if I remember correctly it looked like it had plenty left in the tank at Cheltenham ( although I haven't re-watched the race since the day it won ). If Hi Cloy looked wrecked I wouldn't be considering it. It needs to repeat efforts to get placed, I agree. To be honest, this is a very dodgy race and it's why I've put féck all on. I cannot put serious money on WOA because I feel it's too much of a risk, the odds are too short. It will more than likely win, but there are more secure bets to make than backing WOA. I've already said why I won't go near BOS, I think it's had a hard two months. Now, chances are I'm going to be wrong here and a horse I haven't mentioned could snatch it. Don't take what I say as gospel. Make up your own mind, afterall these are just my opinions. I have been proved wrong in the past, look at Powerstation and Garvivonnian.

Corben Dallas

some nice tips bailey and Sjones.

War of Attrition >>quality is reflected in his odds. Bookies are'nt goin to give u
4-1 on something that might hack up. I would be more worried if he was a longer price which would suggest that the bookies were'nt expecting the win. +WoA hasnt raced since chelt? so comes in fresher than some of the horses who raced in Aintree.
I will be laying BoS as like Barracuda he is coming to the end of his racing days.

masterK

I think War of Attrition is a good thing today, if he stands up he wins as far as I can see. People are saying he is no value, i'm not so sure, he's even money on Betfair at the moment, which really means he's a 50% chance to win the race. I can't find anything to beat him, he's the only horse in the field that will relish the ground. Beef or Salmon has only ever one once on Good or better ground and that was in a week renewal of this race 2 years ago, most of Forget the pasts form has been on soft and in any case I can't see him making up near 10 lengths on WOA from Cheltenham. I suspect Hi Cloy won't stay, most of his graded class wins have been over 2M 4F.

ChuckProphet

WoA for me. I think evens is a fair price, tho I'll not be having a bet on this one.

Redlancer

Im backing BOS today its only two year ago he destroyed everyone here and I think he will do it again with Timmy on board. Hi Cloy wont make the grade I feel as he could'nt compete with Lacdoudal or Fondmort @ cheltenham and this is a step up in class.

I quite fancy Pablo Du Charmil today and Copfl in the bumper

masterK

Redlancer wrote:

I quite fancy Pablo Du Charmil today and Copfl in the bumper

Pablo Du Charmil certainly is an interesting runner today, it's very rare that you see a Martin Pipe trained horse on this side of the pond. He's only had 4 runners in Ireland in the last 5 years. He has some solid form in the book but has a tough job on hand to give weight to such a large field.

fr wishy washy

War of Attrition & Forget the Past had very tough races at the Festival and I think in particular F T Past was bottomed in the Gold Cup and I would think they would be lays in the race.

Very trappy card on the whole but the Bumper looks a cracker and is the best Bumper field I've seen all year anywhere.

chump

masterK wrote:

I think War of Attrition is a good thing today, if he stands up he wins as far as I can see.

I'd agree with this.

finnpark

What about Ballytrim in the bumper, he was 15/1 on Betfair last night and at around 11/1 now I think hes great each way value.

His stable are back in fine form and I think he had a virus at Chelt, should have a great chance. I know theres good opposition but at 11/1 surely he is too good to miss out on. I really can see him win here. Any views welcome?

fr wishy washy

finnpark wrote:

What about Ballytrim in the bumper, he was 15/1 on Betfair last night and at around 11/1 now I think hes great each way value.

His stable are back in fine form and I think he had a virus at Chelt, should have a great chance. I know theres good opposition but at 11/1 surely he is too good to miss out on. I really can see him win here. Any views welcome?

Great e/w bet but its a really tough race.Top 5 or 6 in the betting are very good animals imho.

scojones

finnpark wrote:

What about Ballytrim in the bumper, he was 15/1 on Betfair last night and at around 11/1 now I think hes great each way value.

sjones wrote:

5.00 Hairy Molly had a good victory in Cheltenham beating some of these runners, such as Ballytrim who came 13th in that race.

Ballytrim needs to do alot better than it did at Cheltenham to get placings here. Whether it does or not is anyone's guess.

fr wishy washy

Lads, fwiw I've just looked in the Racing Post and almost all the Trainers in the Bumper quoted as being concerned at drying ground (watered this morning).Noel Meade said he might not even run Leading Run.We might get a turn-up winner...

finnpark

finnpark wrote:

What about Ballytrim in the bumper, he was 15/1 on Betfair last night and at around 11/1 now I think hes great each way value.

His stable are back in fine form and I think he had a virus at Chelt, should have a great chance. I know theres good opposition but at 11/1 surely he is too good to miss out on. I really can see him win here. Any views welcome?

Stay away from him lads, hes been layed like theres no tomorrow on Betfair. You will get any price for him on Betfair. Huge sums going now laying him on Betfair. Staying well away.

Bets for Puch today:

LAY
Lay Rubberdubber

Redlancer

I know I said clopf earlier but I have got a tip for Kevkat was told he will love the ground. I dont know but I am only saying what I was told

bignialler

wbailey wrote:

I'm with you on that one sjones. I used to love this horse, but I reckon he is past it. Foolishly, I kept backing him for sentimental reasons, hoping he would do a comeback, but this has got to stop, and I wont be backing him tomorrow. (cue BOS romping home now that I said that:eek: )

I have been accused of being obsessed with this horse, I probably am..!!
A man can never get rich betting with his heart... wont stop me trying again though!

ChuckProphet

Anyone any thoughts on Weld's horse in the bumper - Dasher Reilly??

scojones

ChuckProphet wrote:

Anyone any thoughts on Weld's horse in the bumper - Dasher Reilly??

Won well last year in Galway, as Weld's horses tend to do. I was looking at this last night and thought it deserves an each way shout. How well prepped Weld has the horse is anyone's guess. And that's just it, it hasn't ran since Galway, so I don't think anyone without inside information can say how well the horse will cope today. I just depends on how well prepared Weld has it. I do think it has a nice e/w chance.

bignialler

ChuckProphet wrote:

Anyone any thoughts on Weld's horse in the bumper - Dasher Reilly??

Dermot weld thinks highly of him and if you use Chomba Womba as a form line He beat Choomba womba better than leading run did
galway is a tough enough course too, and he likes the good ground too,

value price at around 12-1 might back this one myself

finnpark

Redlancer wrote:

I have got a tip for Kevkat was told he will love the ground. I dont know but I am only saying what I was told

Someone has just managed to back him at 160/1 on Betfair. Went from 37/1 to 16/1 on Betfair, something going on there. Whoever layed him off at 160/1 must have made a mistake, slip of the mouse I would say. Perhaps a newcomer. Crazy. Hes still 28/1 elsewhere.

[nicK]

my 10euro treble for the day:

2.05 - jack the giant
3.50 - war of attrition
5.35 - tiger cry

13.3/1

Redlancer

finnpark wrote:

Someone has just managed to back him at 160/1 on Betfair. Went from 37/1 to 16/1 on Betfair, something going on there. Whoever layed him off at 160/1 must have made a mistake, slip of the mouse I would say. Perhaps a newcomer. Crazy. Hes still 28/1 elsewhere.

Its a very hot race so I took the tip alright but its hard to be confident about any selection in the race really.

chopper1981

fr wishy washy wrote:

Lads, fwiw I've just looked in the Racing Post and almost all the Trainers in the Bumper quoted as being concerned at drying ground (watered this morning).Noel Meade said he might not even run Leading Run.We might get a turn-up winner...

I got a tip for this race from the owner of the horse. They reckon it has a great chance and I think it was switched from another race for this. Abbeybraney is the name of the horse and is 33s with powers but I got 85s on betfair, it's a bit shorter now. The guy has given me some very good tips in the past. I don't know many details but might be worth a few quid if your looking for an outsider and as fr wishy said could be a race for an outsider.

Crumbs

Like Newmill yesterday and Brave Inca on Friday, I can't oppose War Of Attrition. Evens is a fair price. If I was to take him on, I'd chance Watson Lake at 16/1. I can see him travelling very well in behind and being involved at the finish but the question is whether he'll have enough left at the end to rough it up with the proven 3-milers.

In the 3:15, I love the form of Articulation. If he's primed to run his race, he's a great e/w bet.

I'd been waiting a while for Ross River to win and I missed the boat when a gamble was landed with him over hurdles last week but I think he can take the handicap chase at 4:25 today.

Crumbs

Crumbs wrote:

In the 3:15, I love the form of Articulation. If he's primed to run his race, he's a great e/w bet.

Never tried an inch.

scargill

ok - have backed Hi Cloy w/o WOA at 3/1 on PP.

have also done a forecast with WOA and Hi Cloy.

not doing much betting over the last few days - heading to Punchestown tomorrow, so keeping my powder dry till then.

county

did hi cloy myself EW

wb

Fair Play to BOS coming second. WOA proved that he is worth all the hype. Well done to him

chump

WoA as easy as you like...

Did they think if they went slow they'd beat him for pace or something?

Great win

fr wishy washy

Great performance by the winner.I was suprised to see B O S ridden so close to the pace.

scargill

wbailey wrote:

Fair Play to BOS coming second

feck the Beef for coming second - buggered up my forecast !

bohsman

Just missed out on the forecast WOA and HiCloy but had a nice bet on WOA.

GavinJCD

Forget the past was running well, I had that, €5 EW, but it had a dodgy jump and went backwards after that. I don't think it would have gone past WOA anyway, worth a shot though.

Gav

chump

GavinJCD wrote:

I don't think it would have gone past WOA anyway, worth a shot though.
Gav

You don't think?

Any1 in the next worth putting a few pence of my winnings on?

I hope WoA winning there killed the bookies

GavinJCD

Well Euro Leader just won so I won't be losing money today, just need Hairy Molly to come in now and I'll have enough for a few drinks tonight.

Gav

fade2black

Lord Over is slightly tempting at 10-1.

finnpark

chump wrote:

You don't think?

Any1 in the next worth putting a few pence of my winnings on?

I hope WoA winning there killed the bookies

Would say there was savage money on him today. People have stopped backing Beef or Salmon and Forget the Past has yet a lot to prove. Overall the bookies must have lost a good bit on this race.

It shows that BOS is not gone but perhaps is not classy enough to ever make it across the water.

scojones

sjones wrote:

4.25 This race is between Euro Leader and Ross River and it is hard to seperate them considering Ruby is back on Euro Leader who has won 3 out of the 5 mounts he's had on it. I'll most likely be doing some dutching on the both of them.

5.00 Hairy Molly had a good victory in Cheltenham beating some of these runners, such as Ballytrim who came 13th in that race. Hairy Molly is up in the weights but if it can win what was an easy enough contest on heavy ground carrying 11 - 9 then 12 - 0 should not be too too big a challenge for it on good ground, as long as it can reproduce the form it showed at Cheltenham.

Euro Leader wins, Ross River second. Hairy Molly nearly got there but Nina put in a super display on Leading Run to get there. Ballytrim was doing well but faded in the closing stages. That was a super finish.

chump

Was on Leading Run in that race ... brilliant
On Tiger Cry in the next...

Feeling the next is a 2 horse race...

fr wishy washy

chump wrote:

Feeling the next is a 2 horse race...

Strange......both easy to back atm on exchanges..

GavinJCD

Not like the prices atm.. Asian maze is 11-8 to-morree, 3 miles, it's never ran that. one win at Aintree and the bookies are all over it. It's up against Brave inca on Friday, hopefully it will have a more reasnoble price.

Gav

Crumbs

Asian Maze has ran over 3 miles twice and won both times. She'll probably win tomorrow and she won't be running on Friday.

chump

Did Tiger Cry fall at the last while winning or is my text commentery screwing me around

scargill

Tiger Cry was miles clear after Rubberdubber fell. Just had to jump the last - horse pulled to the left, didn't want to jump and went out through the fence sideways in a heap. few terrible falls in that race.

there was over 8k matched on betfair on Tiger Cry at 1.01 :eek: