Flat Form Ratings System

masterK

I've used a system I developed myself to calculate ratings for flat racing for the last couple of seasons, I've decided to keep track of the profits of backing the first and second rated in each race. I will start with an initial bank of 100 points and stake 2 points on the top rated and 1 point on the 2nd rated and calculate all winnings based on SP.

So far this season in a sample of 56 races the system has returned a profit of 24 points by backing 1 point on the top rated in each race.


Opening Balance: 100

Newmarket 2:35
Giganticus - 2 pts
Lake Poet - 1 pt

Newmarket 3:10
Speciosa - 2 pts
Sweet Travel - 1 pt

Newmarket 3:45
Baltic King - 2 pts
Quito - 1 pt

Newmarket 4:55
Lets Roll - 2 pts
Jeepstar - 1 pt

Total staked 12 pts.

Returns 20 pts.
Closing Balance 108 pts.
Profit 8 pts.

fade2black

Good 9-1 winner there in the 3:10. Well done.

masterK

A decent start yesterday, I do expect results to be better when the form settles down, there are so many horses having their first runs of the season that there is an obvious advantage to horses who are fit, this is not reflected in the ratings.

I'm going to include pretty much any flat race that where most of the field have ran 2 or more times. I will most likely trim this down and focus on more specific race types and probably only class 4 and up hence I won't be surprised to have a bad day today with the muck at Beverley. I may also only concentrate on the top rated depending on results.

19/4/06
Opening Balance: 108

Newmarket:
2:35 - Baan 2pts, Jeremy 1 pt
3:10 - Rocamador 2pts, Notnowcato 1 pt
4:20 - All Ivory 2 pts, Partners In Jazz 1 pt

Beverley
2:10 - Bond Diamond 2pts, Countess Carmine 1pt
3:20 - Qualitair Wings 1.5 pts, Saif Sareea 1.5 pts
3:55 - Golden Dixie 1.5 pts, Malapropism 1.5 pts
4:30 - Fusili 2pts, Soapy Danger 1pt
5:05 - Danetime Lord 2pts, Deira 1pt
5:35 - Unique Moment 2pts, Juniper Girl 1pt

Total Staked 27pts

Returns 5.3 pts.
Closing Balance 86.3 pts.
Profit -13.7 pts.

masterK

A pretty poor return for the system today although it could have been so much better, had 6 2nds and only 2 winners from 9 races. The winners were Notnowcato 5/2 and Soapy Danger 4/5 , while the 2nds where Jeremy 4/1, Bond Diamond 9/1, Fusili 5/1, Deira 8/1, Saif Sareea 2/1 and Juniper Girl 7/4. It's amazing the difference a few short heads can make to profits.

masterK

Opening Balance 86.3 pts.

Newmarket:

2:35: Didn't We 2pts, High Curragh 1pt
3:10: City of Troy 2pts, Killybegs 1pt
4:20: Bouboulin 2pts, Dark Islander 1pt
4:55: Royal Reservation 2pts, Zabeel House 1pt

Ripon:

2:45: Pauvic 2pts, North Walk 1pt
3:20: Blue Monday 2pts
3:55: NAWAQEES - Withdrawn, Kinsya 2pts
5:35: Mynd 2pts, Unlimited 1pt

Points Staked 22
Returns 15.5 pts.
Closing Balance 79.8 pts.
Profit -20.2 pts.

I was absolutely sick with the 5:35 at Ripon, the ratings are produced automatically. Our Little Secret came out on top, I then add points for supposed draw advantage, this relegated Our Little Secret to 3rd on my ratings as it appeared it was badly drawn. What happens? There is no draw advantage and the thing goes and wins at 33/1.

masterK

Opening balance 79.8

Newbury
2:45 Transonic 2pts, Cape Presto 1pt
3:15 Corridor Creeper 2pts, Green Manalishi 1pt
3:45 Hazeymm 2pts

Thirsk
3:05 Heathstead Dancer 2pts, Tamagin 1pt
3:35 Grande Roche 2pts, Grand Terre 1pt
4:10 Hulla Ballew 2pts, True Night 1pt
4:40 Peopleton Brook, Further Outlook, Prince Namid - all 1pt

Kempton:
7:28 Awatuki 2pts, Pound Sign 1pt
7:56 Glenviews Youngone 2pts, Diktalex 1pt
8:52 Trifti 2pts, Sew'N'So Character 1pt
9:20 Spring Goddess 2pts, Will He Wish 1pt

Points Staked 32

scojones

masterK wrote:

I was absolutely sick with the 5:35 at Ripon, the ratings are produced automatically. Our Little Secret came out on top, I then add points for supposed draw advantage, this relegated Our Little Secret to 3rd on my ratings as it appeared it was badly drawn. What happens? There is no draw advantage and the thing goes and wins at 33/1.

Ouch! Stick with this man, I can see it throwing out some big priced winners, 9/1, that's a 33/1. Top stuff.

masterK

It's sods law really, paper trading on this system up until I started posting had returned an excellent return and then as soon as I start posting it goes downhill. I'll probably need to refine the type and number of races I make selections from, it's almost impossible to make a profit picking in every single race.

Tonights racing at Kempton is the first time I've ever tried to apply the system to all weather racing so it could be anything as different factors become important in AW racing than on turf. It's going to be a lot of trial and error for the first few weeks.

masterK

A loss of 18 points on Friday leaving the balance on 61.8. I'll keep this going for another week and check results, I intend to come back with a system that targets only certain races. It's clear that having 2 selections in every race is difficult to make a profit with. Although Friday was another losing day it was also another frustrating one with Hulla Ballew (10/1), Glenviews Youngone (16/1) and Will He Wish (12/1) all going very close to winning.

masterK

Opening Balance 61.8

Pontefract
2:40 Marmota 2pts, Juniper Girl 1pt
3:10 San Antonio 2pts, Mr Wolf 1pt
3:40 Totally Scottish 2pts, Villago 1pt
4:40 Topatoo 2pts, Ask The Clerk 1pt
5:10 Bethany's Boy 2pts, Augustine 1pt

Windsor
5:30 Full Spate 2pts, Caustic Wit 1pt
6:30 Tommy Toogood 2pts, Urban Tiger 1pt
8:00 Risk Runner 2pts, Katies Tutor 1pt

Points Staked 24
Return 14 pts

Closing Balance 51.8

masterK

Balance 51.8

Folkestone
2:10 Mambazo 2pts, Misaro 1pt
2:40 AMYGDALA 2pts, OTIS B DRIFTWOOD 1pt
3:10 Seven No Trumps 2pts, Spanish Ace 1pt
4:10 Swainson 2pts, Kiama 1pt
5:15 Mighty Dancer 2pts, Henchman 1pt

Bath
5:40 Jakarmi 2pts, Garston 1pt
6:10 Gracechurch 2pts, All The Good 1pt
6:40 Balance Of Power 2pts, Jack of Trumps 1pt
7:10 Della Salute 2pts, Pride of Nation 1pt
7:40 Blue Auro 2pts, Valentino 1pt

Points Staked 30

masterK

5 winners from 10 races yesterday gave a profit of 9 points from the day to move the balance to 60.8.

The one thing I have noticed is that my staking plan is all wrong, in the last week I've had at least 10 horses placed at odds between 8/1 and 20/1, if I had made a lot of these selections each way this system would have been nicely in profit by now.

ChuckProphet

masterK wrote:

if I had made a lot of these selections each way this system would have been nicely in profit by now.

If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. the gamblers curse!

scojones

5 from 10 is good going masterK. Like you said, maybe you should rethink your stakes. Keep it up

masterK

I'll keep the stakes as is for the rest of the week. After that I'll review all the race results to see what type of race, distance, class etc I do well in and what to avoid. I'll hopefully come back with an improved system that only targets certain races, it's unlikely that any system could be in profit making selections in every race.

I'll definitely adjust my staking plan as well, it makes no sense to put the same amount of points on every selection regardless of their price and rating is. i.e. in some races the top rated will only be .1 point clear of the next top while in others the top rated is 10 points clear, it makes sense to stake more on the selection that is 10 points clear than on the one that is .1 of a point clear. I've had several races where the top 5 or 6 rated horses are only seperated by a point or two, it would make sense to avoid these races.

scojones

masterK wrote:

I've had several races where the top 5 or 6 rated horses are only seperated by a point or two, it would make sense to avoid these races.

That's the exact reason that I've been losing on my system lately. I'm going to wait until after Punchestown and revise how I make my selections.

masterK

Opening Balance 60.8

Epsom
1:50 Plateau 2pts, Polish Emperor 1pt
2:20 Before You Go 2pts
2:55 Red Racketeer 2pts, Tender Falcon 1pt
3:30 Impeller 2pts, Councils Opinion 1pt
4:35 Miss Wedge 2pts, Lyrical Sound 1pt

Catterick
3:15 Youmzain 2pts
3:50 Musicmaestroplease 2pts, Buzzin Boyzee 1pt
4:25 Saif Sareea 2pts, Hugs Destiny 1pt
4:55 Suhezy 2pts, Toy Top 1pt
5:25 Blue Maeve 2pts, Crystal Mystic 1pt

Points Staked 28

masterK

Despite having 5 winners and 3 2nds from 10 races I still ended down 4 points for the day, leaving the balance at 56.8.

masterK

Balance 56.8

Beverley
2:50 Westcourt Dream 2pts, Gramada 1pt
3:20 Dame Hester 2pts, Call My Number 1pt
3:50 Marachi Band 2pts, Mambo Sun 1pt
4:50 Kew The Music 2pts, Burton Ash 1pt

Yarmouth
6:25 Namroc 2pts, Banjo Patterson 1pt
6:55 Lucys Lady 2pts, Smile For Us 1pt
7:25 Woodknock 2pts, Asygous 1pt
7:55 Peruvian Prince 2pts, Agilete 1pt

Points Staked 24