Irish Open Satelite Hand

NickyOD

5 players left in a live satelite for the Irish open. I am second in chips and about a million miles the best player at the table (Which wasn't saying much). There is one other respectible player but he is very short stacked. My table image is very aggressive and I've only come into a pot with a raise or reraise.

I am second in chips with 160K. Blinds are 3K/6K. Chip leader has 180K, 3rd has 110K. The other 2 are almost down to the felt.

It's folded to me in the small blind and I complete with K-To. BB (110K) checks. Flop comes 3-9-K rainbow. I check. BB moves all in!! 110K into a pot of 12K!!

Call or Fold?

He has only shown down one hand at the final table so far and that was a reraise all in preflop with pocket Tens.

ocallagh

What is your table image like? Have you been outplaying them on the flop? He might be worried he'll have to drop his hand to a raise. I call.

De Deraco

how many tickets?

NickyOD

ocallagh wrote:

What is your table image like? Have you been outplaying them on the flop? He might be worried he'll have to drop his hand to a raise. I call.

The one other hand I played against this player he raised my blind and I defended with KQ. The board came rag-rag-rag. Check Check. Turn was anoth rag. I bet with king high and he folded instantly. I didn't show. As far as my table image goes I am certain every player at the table know I am the biggest threat.

De Deraco there is only one ticket.

Poker Hound

I think you have to call. I dont see him checking pre flop with 33, 99, or KJ, KQ, AK. Hands he may have checked pre plop that have you dominated 93, K9, K3 or KK(trapping), I cant see anybody going all in with. Better to bet minimum to pot size to keep you interested. I think he has something like K small kicker or Q9, J9. I dont think he has put you on a K as he would have expected an aggressive player like you to raise his BB with any paint and he is happy to take down small pot.

What happened and did you get your Irish Open ticket?

CoD

Fold! Keep your chips, he could have anything, even if he has nothing, its not worth the risk.

fuzzbox

I fold.

ianmc38

No interest in calling here.

Ste05

Fold here too, you're the best player at the table, there's no need to close your eyes and pray. Did you have any kind of read on him.

I'd say he has some kind of cheeky 2 pair??

Samba

Hmmm, quite a pickle.

The set we can rule out, he would want to extract as much as possible, so after that it's 93o a K or a bluff....

If you pulled this move a few times you could considerably increase your stack size, is this what he's trying to do?

I think a call here could be correct, however IO ticket is at stake..

Did he limp in with a big pp like JJ I wonder.

Culchie

Easy Fold surely.

JoeyJJ

Bide your time, Fold...

Samba

Easy Fold surely

That's if you believe him

Culchie

Samba wrote:

That's if you believe him

Believe what is the question .. he has a monster and is trying to look like he is bluffing, or that he is simply bluffing?

Fact is Nicky has feck all to make a stand with, and is behind as many hand as you can shake a stick at.
No point in being the best player at the table by miles, if you'd rather play russian roulette.

careca

I'd fold also. The fact that he is big blind means you have absolutely no info. I agree with Samba, set is out and I'd go for K3 or 93 and he wants to end it there and then. I reckon if he had K9 he would slow play it but he doesn't want the board to pair and negate his 3.

you have loads to play with.

Samba

How many tickets are up for grabs?

careca

NickyOD wrote:

De Deraco there is only one ticket.

..

Gholimoli

i dont know whether its the right play or not but i woulf fold here evey time.
i agree that he prob dosent have a set or AA or KJ or KQ here but that assumption comes from the fact that we think its wrong to play any of thoes hands the way he did.what if in his head he had some reason for playing any of thoes hands like this.what if his not a good enough player to know that thoes hands should not be played like this.
the fact that his betting all his stack in to that pot suggests that he does not really follow our logic .based on that and the fact that you dont have much invested here i would fold and keep my chips for another spot.

shaydy

Yep, id fold in this spot aswell. If your by far the better player here then bide your time and pick them off.

How did you get on Nicky?

Shay

Samba

Rubs eyes, checks watch, nods.

O.k so there is is one ticket, what if you are folding the best hand, this one hand brings you closer to that ticket...as everyone has clearly illustrated though, you can afford to wait for a better spot...


any reads on his body language?

Culchie

Short of actually seeing the villans hole cards ... for me, this is a fold 100% of the time.

If the villan is so trigger happy with his chips already, can you imagine what he's gonna be like in half an hour?

I don't think you should dodge and weave your way through a field laden with mines, and then just as you're getting towards the end jump feet first into beartrap, because it looks too obvious to be a trap, just in case you might be right.
Better be wrong and stay alive .... with all your bottles of lucozade still in tact;)

Norwich Fan Rob

1 million percent fold.

Absolutely no need to take on poor player with marginal hand, that MAY be ahead, but he will have several outs even in best case scenario.

If he overplays his hands like this, he can easily be beaten at a later stage and u have only put 1 blind in the pot so far.

Only call this is you feel the table is outplaying you and you need to gamble on a double up to have a chance, which is clearly not the case outlined above.

jem

auto fold.

jem

auto fold.

eggie

FOLD! Even if he is on a total bluff, you'll catch him later with a monster

iBoT

Samba wrote:

Rubs eyes, checks watch, nods.

O.k so there is is one ticket, what if you are folding the best hand, this one hand brings you closer to that ticket...as everyone has clearly illustrated though, you can afford to wait for a better spot...


any reads on his body language?

i can see where your coming from, people try to protect there smaller pocket pair but i do set these traps sometimes if the villian is a muppet,
in this case i think the he had ak or 2 pair..

RoundTower

I fold. I don't think he can be bluffing.

I raise preflop and bet the flop.

carrigeen

fold fold fold

how did u finish up nicky did u win the ticket?

cardshark202

I want to call here if he's any sort of muppet. Although I think its a 50/50 decision. Its certainly not an auto fold. Winning this pot puts you in a commanding chip lead and knocks a player out. I think I call maybe.

Culchie

cardshark202 wrote:

I want to call here if he's any sort of muppet. Although I think its a 50/50 decision. Its certainly not an auto fold.

Why do you want to make a 50/50 decision ?

cardshark202

Culchie wrote:

Why do you want to make a 50/50 decision ?

I'm not making a 50/50 decision, I'm faced with one. And I'm leaning towards calling.

CodeMonkey

Is this not a standard play where you check preflop and push all in no matter what comes? There's a name for this play but I don't remember it

fuzzbox

cardshark202 wrote:

I'm not making a 50/50 decision, I'm faced with one. And I'm leaning towards calling.

The main problem is that there are no draws to speak of, so he cant be semi-bluffing really.

I had a similar hand to this in the Irish Open Qualifier (which I won a ticket in, but dont like to talk about it).

I had been harrassing the guy who was BB to my SB. I had cooled off the last couple of times, however.
I found 5h7h in the SB and it was folded to me. I just called this time, and he checked. Flop came Jd7c5s, I check, and he moves in.

I called and he had AA and my hand stood up.

cardshark202

fuzzbox wrote:

The main problem is that there are no draws to speak of, so he cant be semi-bluffing really.

I had a similar hand to this in the Irish Open Qualifier (which I won a ticket in, but dont like to talk about it).

I had been harrassing the guy who was BB to my SB. I had cooled off the last couple of times, however.
I found 5h7h in the SB and it was folded to me. I just called this time, and he checked. Flop came Jd7c5s, I check, and he moves in.

I called and he had AA and my hand stood up.

Yeah AA is possible alright but I don't know why but I think folding here may be a mistake given the fact that we are probably ahead and we do not yet have a stack with which we can sit on as such. I think this is an opportunity. i've seen players make this move with any pair even QQ, T9 whatever. If his range is any pair or two pair I think we have to call.

Ste05

CodeMonkey wrote:

Is this not a standard play where you check preflop and push all in no matter what comes? There's a name for this play but I don't remember it

It's called a Stop and Go, but he's too deep to need to make a play like this.

fuzzbox

cardshark202 wrote:

Yeah AA is possible alright but I don't know why but I think folding here may be a mistake given the fact that we are probably ahead and we do not yet have a stack with which we can sit on as such. I think this is an opportunity. i've seen players make this move with any pair even QQ, T9 whatever. If his range is any pair or two pair I think we have to call.

Thats a pretty wide range.
If he wanted to make this move with a pair ... why not preflop?

I dont buy the range.

Culchie

cardshark202 wrote:

Yeah AA is possible alright but I don't know why but I think folding here may be a mistake given the fact that we are probably ahead and we do not yet have a stack with which we can sit on as such. I think this is an opportunity. i've seen players make this move with any pair even QQ, T9 whatever. If his range is any pair or two pair I think we have to call.

If he wasn't in the blinds you might have some chance of deciphering his hand holding ... it literately could be anything.

Calling is just gambling.

Daithio

If the players are as terrible as Nicky says they are, then he could be pushing with second pair or any king. You really think he's going all in to a 12k pot for 110k with 2 pair or a set on a board with no draws?? No way. I call. The only hands I think that are beating you here are KQ or KJ, and he might well have raised with KQ. You have to get all the chips together somehow, and the odds are you're ahead IMO.

jbravado

I think I also favour a fold here considering the table factors desribed-however imo its by no means automatic-if the player is indeed a muppet then situations like these are where a good players edge comes into play...that said without a strong read I think its impossible to call here-What happened in the end?

Daithio

The massive overbet all in absolutely stinks of a weak hand that he is afraid he might get pushed off of if he plays it any differently against the table aggressor. IE. King weak kicker or 2nd pair high kicker. I see people make these sort of bets all the time against aggressive players. I think it's extremely unlikely Nicky's beaten here. with blinds as they are it's not that likely you're going to get that many more opportunities to gather chips, and if an opportunity arises where you have a shot at a lot of chips and it's very likely you're ahead I think you have to call. It's a winner takes all tournament, you have to take these sort of chances in it.

MrPillowTalk

I call, stinks of a move. If it was a good player I would fold thinking it was a flopped two pair trying to disguise itself as a move.

A better king surely raises pre flop, no?

spectre

I agree with Daithio. If he was strong, he would try to win some more of your chips, if he had a King with a bigger kicker or better, surely he would try to extract and not be just content with the blinds. I've seen a player make this move with A3.

Culchie

spectre wrote:

I agree with Daithio. If he was strong, he would try to win some more of your chips, if he had a King with a bigger kicker or better, surely he would try to extract and not be just content with the blinds. I've seen a player make this move with A3.

If he was strong he might not be interested in the blinds, he might be interested in the full stack, by making it look like a move.;)
Heads Up one of the best ways to look like your very weak is to play very strong.

I'm guessing Nicky called, and I'm guessing villain was weak, and Nicky won, but there ya go, I'd be fine with folding in this scenario.

Norwich Fan Rob

again this is a FOLD.

u say hes a bad player.
he can have anything on the BB.
he can easily have KJ, KQ, AK (although i dont like the pf check with AK), trap with KK, AA, or K3, or 93, a lot of players move in with bottom 2 as it often plays horribly through the streets.
blinds are not that big, its no guarantee at all that KQ or KJ re raises pre flop, i cant rule these out. (although this is awful with KK, or 999, 333 for that matter).
Even with 9x or even 3x he has 20% of out drawing you.
there are no draws out there, so hes not of a semi bluff.
Stop and go for 110k stack to win 2bb is horrible.

(against an agressive player and if either of u have less than 8/9 BBs, its a call though)

but mainly, hes a bad player, he will continue to overbet, he will continue to over play marginal hands, u are both deep, blinds are small relative to your stacks, why gamble here.

yes a double up would be nice, but if u can outplay the table (and u have a deep enough stack to do this, diff story if u have only a few BBs), then outplay them, and dont guess off your stack on something like this.

Daithio

Outplaying bad players isn't quite as easy as everybody is making it out to be. Especially considering the blinds will be on the rise. What hands are beating KT here? You think he's gonna check the big blind with AK after the small blind has just completed. Not very likely. 80% of players would raise with KQ also, and alot with KJ. He is making this bet with a much bigger range of hands that you are beating than not beating. You honestly think he'll go all in here with a set or two pair? They may be bad but surely not that bad. He has a weak hand and doesn't want to get outplayed by the aggressor of the table.

Norwich Fan Rob

if his style is to move in 110k to win 12k hes not going to be that hard to outplay, no matter what he has, this play is bad.
i would suggest he will continue to overbet pots like this, especially if he gets away with this one.
We have 26 BBs, they wont be going up that fast.
I agree he is probably weak, but i still dont like the call.

Maybe diff if we made it say 25k pre flop, then he called and moved in after the flop, then i would put him on a stop and go, but not here, K6, K7 maybe, KJ maybe.

Remember we have only put 6k in this pot. (and we have 160k)

cardshark202

fuzzbox wrote:

Thats a pretty wide range.
If he wanted to make this move with a pair ... why not preflop?

I dont buy the range.

As in any pair on the flop. Not a pocket pair as such. You check and he's hit a piece of the flop, so he just says fúck it, I'll move in now. i just think that if he had a hand that was ahead, he'd try a get more money out of it.

Ste05

The only slight little niggle that might make me lean to calling is this: Seeing as Nicky is the table aggressor, he is almost guaranteed a bet from Nicky that he can either re-raise or extract more value out of his good hand, (if he has one). Why bet big into an aggressive player with a big hand. Hence why I might call, but TBH, I'd wait til I saw he was doing these huge overbets more often than he should and call the next one with TPGK, or maybe even just A high, But I don't like to risk my whole tournament on a hope as it is here.

I just hope he outdraws all you calling stations out there....

cardshark202

The more I think about it the more I believe this is a clear call.

Culchie wrote:

Calling is just gambling.

Its called getting the money in when the odds are in your favour.

Daithio

OK, so what hands do you think you are losing to? The only ones that I can consider you are losing to are KJ and possibly KQ, but it's unlikely. AK he's raising preflop if he's gonna go all in after the flop just to win 12k. And do you honestly think he'd make this bet with a set? There's absolutely no chance IMO. The same goes for top two or top and bottom two pair. There's the slightest chance that bottom two is making this bet, but surely heads up on this board he'll try and extract a little more.

OK, then there are the hands that you are beating with which he is making this bet. ANY KING. And tbh he's not doing that much wrong in betting with any king, just not all in. It's a battle of the blinds after all and he has every reason to think that top pair any kicker is good. Then he could be making this bet with 2nd pair. And again there's no problem in betting here with 2nd pair, he should just try and find out a little cheaper if he's ahead or not. If Nicky's the table aggressor he again has every reason to think that these two hands are good. The all in bet is just taking away the possibility that he will be played off the hand, which leans me further towards a really weak hand that he's afraid he'll have to fold if he gives Nicky the opportunity to rraise him.

So, to sum up, IMO, the hands Nicky is behind to are KJ (most likely if he is behind), possibly KQ, and about 1% of the time bottom 2 pair. On the other hand the hands that Nicky is beating are K any kicker, and 2nd pair with probably a high kicker. It's a clear call for me.

Hitman Actual

I would soooo want to call this, but I'd probably end up folding. I'm assuming this is a cardroom down the country somewhere, where you see some of the weirdest plays, but I'd really feel I was ahead here. I dont think it's a stone cold bluff, he's hit some part of the flop, but not much.