Mid to Late MTT situation. Early position AQo

Ste05

OK, this happened earlier tonight and it's basically the exact type of situation I have trouble with consistently.

I can't find the actual HH to post all the required details but I'll try my best from memory (PokerRoom - anyone know how to retreive a Tournament hand without knowing the Hand Number??)

It was a $10 FO MTT, ~ 500 runners and we're down to 75 players (60 paid)

I was in UTG+1/2 with ~6.5k (average stack for the tourney was about 10k I think) I had just lost a big pot about 10-15 hands ago (lost about 10k with KK v AA ) but I had a solid image. I had a nice stack for the majority of the tournament and so wasn't really splashing around.

Anyway the blinds were 300/600 and there's no huge stacks or mini stacks at the table, the biggest being ~20k and most players having 8 - 15k.

I think I have solid fold equity on most of the players.

So here's the dilemna: I get AQo. What do I do??

(1) Do I push, hoping to take the blinds, in general I think I'm only going to get called by solid hands, I doubt less than a solid pair or AK is calling here. The table is actually quite solid and I haven't seen crazy All-In calls from anyone yet? (Thus far we're not quite in a push or fold situation - stack sizes)

(2) Do I raise 3x BB's and hope to take down the blinds, if I'm called I'm probably pushing regardless of the flop. (within reason). If I'm called I don't think I have the chips to play this hand OOP

(3) Do I call (*shudder*). Then evaluate on the flop. If I'm a re-raised, then either push (if I have any fold equity), try a stop and go (hmmm), or fold. (Depending on the raiser - a couple of guys might make this move with a range I'm beating)

(4) Or Do I just fold??

There's probably something vital I forgot to add, (I can't remember the stacks in the blinds, but I think they were in or around 7-12k and so I don't think I was guaranteed a call without something decent) but in general this is a problem situation I often find myself in. I'm not under huge pressure, but my stack has just taken a hit and when I was comfortable to easily make the money, suddenly I find myself with a below average stack with a tricky hand.

I'll post the results of what I did and why if anyone's interested later. But I think this question is more theoretical really??

Hectorjelly

You have 10bbs and are a tight table, no need to wait for a hand as good as AQ. Just start pushing at least once a round, tighten up after a while. Oh and push. You have to call a reraise anyway.

eggie

make it 2-3 BB to go, that way you'll get rid of some rags, if you miss the flop you can fold for cheap or throw out a bluff bet representing a hand if you miss, or check raise after deciding your opponents arent showing much strength- if you hit then those are the easy hands to play.

Iceman78

eggie, he does not have enough chips left to be messing about like raising pre flop and then check raising on any flop.

Only way to play this hand for me would be an all in. Think you will only called if getting beaten or coin flip as table sounds like it aint very aggressive and there are no massive stacks.

ianmc38

Easy push really.

Ste05

ianmc38 wrote:

Easy push really.

Do you really think it's that easy. You'd risk your tournament life here to win 900 chips. When there's no pressure to. I'm not commenting on what I'd do, but I certainly don't think this is an "Easy Push"

You are out of position and there are 7 or 8 players still to act.

ArmaniJeanss

Definite Push.
You are shortstacked, getting close to horribly short-stacked having to pay 900 in blinds in the next few hands. And now you have a good hand. Push.

ianmc38

Ste05 wrote:

Do you really think it's that easy. You'd risk your tournament life here to win 900 chips.

Yes. You only have 7 orbits left and those blinds represent 15% of your stack.

Ste05 wrote:

When there's no pressure to.

I'd feel pressure with a shortstack like that. If you want to scrape into the money, then by all means fold. Otherwise push.

Ste05 wrote:

You are out of position and there are 7 or 8 players still to act.

Push and you dont have to worry about any positional decisions. You'll only be called here by AJ+ and JJ+ (i would think).

I would probably push here with far worse than AQ. You're stack can still cripple someone if they call. Fold and you may not see as good a hand for the next few orbits when pushing will be mandatory because of your shortstack. If you push and lose then so be it. At least you made the right decision.

Ste05

OK, I did push, I was called by KK, I hit an A on the turn and doubled up.

But I'm not 100% sure that pushing here was all that great. With the way the table was playing, there would be loads of stealing attempts later with alot less risk attached. I can still let the blinds go through me and then steal alot more when I had position and less players to get through.

I agree with HJ here and like to steal at least once per orbit. But I'm not so sure pushing here is optimal, I've just negotiated my way through over 400 players and the bubble effect isn't quite kicking in yet. The blinds are sizeable but I didn't really feel under any real pressure from them yet. They had just gone up and there was a good 8-10 minutes until they went up again.

Anyway, basically I just hate having these medium to low stacks in the later stages of a tournament. I find them the most difficult to play with. Big stack and short stack's are so much easier to play with. And are usually the type of stack discussed. I was hoping to get a discussion started about how you play with a medium stack at this stage. It's just about push or fold time, but the risks/rewards aren't a clear cut. IMO. With a short stack, you're about to be blinded away so you have no option. With a big stack you aren't usually risking your tournament life on any particular hand.

It's probably just these are the 50:50/ 40:60's you have to win to go deep in a tournament. :cool: But can they be avioded by better utilising position, etc. etc.

ocallagh

You can't afford to play poker with that stack, so its a maths problem.

work out the chances of someone behind you having AQo beat. Then decide whether it is worth the risk for 900 chips. You might be better off with A4 on the button..

Hitman Actual

10BBs isn't a medium stack though, imo, it's small. If I found AQ in this spot I'm pushing as well, but I wonder is it really a +EV move? Out of curiousity, what do you expect to get called by? If it's TT+ and AKs/o, that's 36 hands, which means you get called about 20% of the time with 8 players to act, and you'll be a 30% dog. I dont think it's a simple push either.

Ste05

That's basically what I'm trying to get at, I'm not playing any Poker with this hand. It's certainly a Push or Fold, but I think I'd nearly prefer to push with rags in the Cut-off then AQo UTG.

ArmaniJeanss

Ste05 wrote:

I was hoping to get a discussion started about how you play with a medium stack at this stage. It's just about push or fold time, but the risks/rewards aren't a clear cut. IMO. With a short stack, you're about to be blinded away so you have no option. With a big stack you aren't usually risking your tournament life on any particular hand.

I really dont think your example was a medium stack play. With 11BB i'd consider you shortstacked.
However you raise a very good point about a discussion about medium stack play. I really struggle around the 14-20BB mark with 'bitty' cards, medium pairs, A6-A10. Not wanting to put in open-raises when I cant call reraises from big stacks, and not wanting to be potcommitted to pushes from smallish stacks. And hating having to put in continuation bets on horrid flops.

Sometimes I almost prefer being shortstacked and being able to push, rather than having to worry about having to play poker. This is probably something which stops me being a good player.

ocallagh

Ste05 wrote:

That's basically what I'm trying to get at, I'm not playing any Poker with this hand. It's certainly a Push or Fold, but I think I'd nearly prefer to push with rags in the Cut-off then AQo UTG.

Also to consider - u might get called by a JJ/TT/99 which would be good (you need to double and with the blinds it makes it slightly +EV).. Also, AJ might go to the head! I think I push AQo every time here.

Also, AQo UTG is a pure maths problem. If you get called it's either 50-50 or 70-30.. and you can then decide if it is worth the risk for 900. It's easy enough to work out.

When you are on the button with rags there are a few more things to consider. You need to determine the chances of someone having a *calling hand*, eg AT+, 66+.. then you need to work out how your rags will fare against their calling range.. Then you need to evalulate whether it is worth the risk for 900 chips... I'd prefer 76s on the button than A4o TBH. Your ace will be dead so many times if you do get a caller...

hmmm.. i'm sure a probability expert could come up with some sort of table for short stack play, eg: what hands to push depending on how many opponents there are, taking into consideration stack sizes and blinds. I think Dan Harrington discusses this in his book.

Ste05

ocallagh wrote:

hmmm.. i'm sure a probability expert could come up with some sort of table for short stack play, eg: what hands to push depending on how many opponents there are, taking into consideration stack sizes and blinds. I think Dan Harrington discusses this in his book.

Just before this turns into another shortstack discussion, even if my example above isn't considered short stacked, lets keep this one to Medium Stacked play. Let's say 11 - 14BB's.

I think I'll just read Harrington 2 again, I've been playing too much cash games lately and my Tourney game has suffered as a result. But I always find medium stacked play the most tricky.

Maybe this Question might start something: Do you risk becoming a shorty or do you risk getting eliminated when you play a hand?? i.e. do you give yourself a chance to get away from the hand. Maybe use the example above but just change my stack size to 10.5k? (Average for the tournament)

Hitman Actual

ocallagh wrote:

You can't afford to play poker with that stack, so its a maths problem.

work out the chances of someone behind you having AQo beat. Then decide whether it is worth the risk for 900 chips. You might be better off with A4 on the button..

Some dubious maths:

Getting called by TT+ and AKs/o is 36 hands, so with 8 players, the probability of getting called is (36*8)/1326 = ~0.22. So 78% of the time you just pick up the blinds (T900). When you get called, you win T13,900 30% of the time and lose T6500 70% of the time.

EV = 0.78*900 + 0.22[(0.3*13900) - (0.7*6500)] = 618.4 = +EV

Edit: Sorry, getting off your main topic, Ste05!

ianmc38

lenny_leonard wrote:

Some dubious maths:

Getting called by TT+ and AKs/o is 36 hands, so with 8 players, the probability of getting called is (36*8)/1326 = ~0.22. So 78% of the time you just pick up the blinds (T900). When you get called, you win T13,900 30% of the time and lose T6500 70% of the time.

EV = 0.78*900 + 0.22[(0.3*13900) - (0.7*6500)] = 618.4 = +EV

Edit: Sorry, getting off your main topic, Ste05!

Pushing is +EV. Thats the only thing that needs to be discussed. Harrington will say push here, as you are opening the pot.

As for the maths. Saying we are a 30% dog is even more dubious. I think our calling range should be more like:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.4911 % 33.73% 08.76% { AcQd }
Hand 2: 57.5089 % 48.75% 08.76% { TT+, AJs+, AJo+ }

So we're only a marginal dog when we do get called. Therefore, I really do think pushing here is a no brainer.

ArmaniJeanss

Ste05 wrote:

Maybe this Question might start something: Do you risk becoming a shorty or do you risk getting eliminated when you play a hand?? i.e. do you give yourself a chance to get away from the hand. Maybe use the example above but just change my stack size to 10.5k? (Average for the tournament)

You start off the hand with 17BB.
I think you should raise with AQ to 3.5 BB.
Case A. Win blinds. Fab.
Case B. Called, theres a Flop.
You can then do a continuation bet of 3.5 BB.
If you are finished with the hand you still have 10 BB so are back to the situation of your original post.
Case C. Reraised pre-flop. Then it becomes a matter of pot-odds, feel for the situation, etc. But because you only raised 3xBB instead of pushing there is a far better chance that low pairs, AJ- etc are reraising you.

So I think yes with 17BB you can still play one normal raise/cont before you are back to 'shorty-push' mode. Whether AQo UTG is that hand is up to you, for me it would be.

ianmc38

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

But because you only raised 3xBB instead of pushing there is a far better chance that low pairs, AJ- etc are reraising you.

Tight players reraising an UTG raiser with AJo and 22-66? :eek:

Ste05

ianmc38 wrote:

Hand 2: 57.5089 % 48.75% 08.76% { TT+, AJs+, AJo+ }

So we're only a marginal dog when we do get called. Therefore, I really do think pushing here is a no brainer.

Just to finish off the discussion about this, I think this calling range is a little loose, try TT+, AKo+ just to put this one to bed. I would also push here with AQo, as I did, but I was really hoping to discuss medium stacked play. IMO a medium stack is one which you don't feel threathened by the blinds with. Be it because you have over 10 BB's or to be at a table where there the stacks are all roughly comparable. But anyway back to the topic at hand.

ArmaniJeanss

ianmc38 wrote:

Tight players reraising an UTG raiser with AJo and 22-66? :eek:

When we (a medium stack) raise 3.5 UTG, a shorter stack with 55,66 etc should really be pushing.
Its a great opportunity for him, even a tight player will see that, assuming he istight and clued-in..

Edit. Rereading it, that sounds barmy, but I'm working on the basis that the shortstack knows (a) he is on his way out anyway and wants a double through (b) the UTG raise is going to be Ax more often that it is a big pair.

Hitman Actual

ianmc38 wrote:

As for the maths. Saying we are a 30% dog is even more dubious.

In the OP, Ste05 said he expected to be called by a decent pair and AK, that's what I'm going on.

For the same situation with 17BBs, I'm putting as little money as possible into the pot with AQ from EP. If it's mid to late in the tourney, then there's every chance that you may have to make a decision for all your stack when someone plays back at you. I have no problem with just calling here, or making a small raise, say 2.5BBs. If there is considerable action behind then you can re-evaluate and then get away from the hand if necessary. All player dependent, of course.

RoundTower

lenny_leonard wrote:

Some dubious maths:

Getting called by TT+ and AKs/o is 36 hands, so with 8 players, the probability of getting called is (36*8)/1326 = ~0.22. So 78% of the time you just pick up the blinds (T900). When you get called, you win T13,900 30% of the time and lose T6500 70% of the time.

EV = 0.78*900 + 0.22[(0.3*13900) - (0.7*6500)] = 618.4 = +EV

Edit: Sorry, getting off your main topic, Ste05!

This maths is wrong. Change 13,900 to 7,400. Also the probability of getting called isn't right but I think it is close enough.

Then you get

EV = 0.78 * 900 + 0.22[(0.3*7400) - (0.7*6500)]
= 702 + 0.22(2220-4550) = 189.4

which is still marginally better than folding, but it's close.

If your opponents are this tight, pushing UTG would still be good with 45 suited, but not with something like 26o. In fact sometimes someone will decide to look you up with 88 or AJs and you do much better having AQ, so I would push AQ here but not 45s.

RoundTower

lenny_leonard wrote:

For the same situation with 17BBs, I'm putting as little money as possible into the pot with AQ from EP. If it's mid to late in the tourney, then there's every chance that you may have to make a decision for all your stack when someone plays back at you. I have no problem with just calling here, or making a small raise, say 2.5BBs. If there is considerable action behind then you can re-evaluate and then get away from the hand if necessary. All player dependent, of course.

I agree with this, with 10.5k here I make it 2000 and fold to a push.

Gholimoli

Ste05 wrote:

Do you really think it's that easy. You'd risk your tournament life here to win 900 chips. When there's no pressure to. I'm not commenting on what I'd do, but I certainly don't think this is an "Easy Push"

You are out of position and there are 7 or 8 players still to act.

thats the thing,there is pressure on you.
you have about 6K u said and blinds 600/300 .staying with this blind level you will have something like 6 orbits.depending on what the blind structure is you will have even less than that when the blinds go up.
if you make any sort of raise you are totally pot commited and will have to call the reraise.the only difference between a push and a raise then is the fact that your loosing some of your FE.
the table is tight which is good.
you seem to think that 900 chips is not much here.remember 900 here is almost 1/6 of your stack.if you manage to do this twice you have increased your stack by 1/3.
also you said that your out of position.this does not even come in to it.you only consider position when there is future rounds of betting.
on reason for pushing out of position is to get rif of that disadvantage.
if you get knocked out when pushing then so be it.but its the right thing to do.

Hitman Actual

RoundTower wrote:

This maths is wrong. Change 13,900 to 7,400.

I said it was dubious! I thought that for the first part, the figure you use is the total in the pot including your own stack, i.e. 13,900. (Although if it's zero-sum then there's something wrong with that, isn't there?)

RoundTower wrote:

Also the probability of getting called isn't right but I think it is close enough.

Genuine question: what figure do you get for this, and how do you work it out?

RoundTower

lenny_leonard wrote:

I said it was dubious! I thought that for the first part, the figure you use is the total in the pot including your own stack, i.e. 13,900. (Although if it's zero-sum then there's something wrong with that, isn't there?)

You just have to be consistent. You can use either the amount in your stack at the end of the hand (which is 0 if you call and lose, or 13,900 if you call and win, or 6,500 if you fold). Or you can use the amount you win or lose during this hand (-6500 if you call and lose, +7400 if you call and win, 0 if you fold). Either works on its own but you can't mix and match. Actually 7400 is slightly too high: if you get called by the BB it is only 6800.

Genuine question: what figure do you get for this, and how do you work it out?

I don't know how to work this out. To work it out precisely would be impossibly tough by hand. I know there are programs that do this but I don't have any names. Try the SNG forum on 2+2.

I think the method you use is close enough for tight opponents who are only calling with 3% of hands or so. This is what I use. For loose opponents who are calling with say the top 10% of hands, it will be way off.

Bozzer

lenny_leonard wrote:

Some dubious maths:

Getting called by TT+ and AKs/o is 36 hands, so with 8 players, the probability of getting called is (36*8)/1326 = ~0.22. So 78% of the time you just pick up the blinds (T900). When you get called, you win T13,900 30% of the time and lose T6500 70% of the time.

EV = 0.78*900 + 0.22[(0.3*13900) - (0.7*6500)] = 618.4 = +EV

1st part is nearly right. There aren't 1326 combos out there because we hold 2 cards, so there are (50*49)/2 combos = 1225
The chances one person holds one of the calling hands = 36/1225 ~ .0294
Assuming 8 players to act, then the chances nobody holds a calling hand are
(1-.0294)^8 ~ 0.788
So the chances somebody has a calling hand are 1-.788 which is about 21%
Your method gives a pretty good approximation though.

I think the EV equation you were looking for was

EV = 0.78*900 + 0.22[(0.3)(13900) - 6500)]

which is the exact same as the one Roundtower gave except for a bit of manipulation.