Hedgehunter 7.8 on betfair for National....free money ?

D'arkness

I think so, what a horse.
Will win in 2nd gear at Aintree.

McCoys wait will go on.

chump

Last year 21 horses finished the race out of 40.

It should win by all accounts, but will it get around?
It's such a dangerous race really.

Comments from the RP on the Gold Cup

Grand National winner Hedgehunter, also ridden patiently, ran an absolute blinder in second, and his jumping also seemed pretty much flawless. He travelled well down the hill and was within a couple of lengths of the winner at the last, poised to take advantage if there was a chink in his armour. But there wasn't and he had to settle for second. He has 11st 10lb in the National this time, and although that's only 9lb more than last year, he's off a 16lb higher mark. He was very impressive last year, and there must be every chance of a repeat win, but his odds are very skinny and the 4-1 with Ladbrokes would be a ridiculous ante-post bet with three weeks to go.

chump

And tis only 7.4 now, with very little available at that...

Although that said it should be lower than 6-1 on the day considering it won last time as fav at 7-1 and put in a blistering performance in the GC on Friday...

I'd say it will go off 5-1 on the day

An interesting bet might be Cornish Rebel

From the RP

Further back, the blinkered-first-time Cornish Rebel ran a great deal better than his finishing position suggests, as he was still well in touch when he blundered very badly and lost all chance at what should have been the fourth-last. It was by no means his first mistake, but he had yet to be asked a question. He heads to Aintree for National, in which he has 11st 7lb, and if he took to the fences, he couldn't be ruled out.

Had small wager ew on him for the GC and he was impressive enough... 27 on BF now... Maybe a bit skinny

The jock

I think it will run a great race but theres better value and a horse i am on is numbersixvalverde.

D'arkness

He ran at Gold Cup pace with that weight on his back.
He'll be fine as long as a stray horse doesn't take him out.

Legend of a horse.

fr wishy washy

I think he has a big task on his plate after the very hard race he had in the Gold Cup.He also has plenty of weight and I'd be opposing him at this stage.

eirebhoy

Clan Royal would have won last years race if he wasn't taken out by a stray horse. His odds are falling rapidly too.

phantom_lord

I think it's a terrible price. I backed him at 25s last year and tens on thursday before the gold cup. He's more weight than last year and is after having a tough race. I'm going more for the each way money.

decies

fr wishy washy wrote:

I think he has a big task on his plate after the very hard race he had in the Gold Cup.He also has plenty of weight and I'd be opposing him at this stage.

The master has spoken long live the master.
I got clan royal at 20-1 might have a bet on hedgehunter as well.
Can see hedgehunter go as low as 4-1 for grand national.
we shall see.

Morgans

decies, do you mind me asking where you got 20s about Clan Royal? That is a huge price.

eirebhoy

Morgans wrote:

decies, do you mind me asking where you got 20s about Clan Royal? That is a huge price.

He has traded at that price on Betfair.

finnpark

So you want to know the winner of the 2006 Grand National? Have a read below to have any hope of picking that winner....my tips are at the bottom

STAMINA
Gay Trip (1970) was the last Grand National winner who hadn't previously won over at least three miles! So, DO NOT back a horse that has NOT won over 3 miles. Your first tip.

Weight
Since 1945 only five Grand Nationals have been won by horses carrying more than 11 st 5 lbs and two of those were by the incredible Red Rum! So, DO NOT back anything carrying more than 11 st 5 lbs. Hedgehunter cannot win this year's Grand National.

Jumping Experience
Each of the last ten Grand National winners had run at least ten times over fences before the start on the big day at Aintree. So another tip for you there.

ABILITY TO PERFORM IN TOP CLASS RACES
Beef or Salmon is an example why you should take note of this. Every winner in the last ten years had won a chase for experienced horses (ie not novice chases) worth at least £17,000.They had all been at least placed in a grade three or higher chase (again excluding those races restricted to novices).

TIREDNESS/TRAINED FOR THE RACE
The winner of this year's grand national is just kept specially and trained only for the national. In recent years only Rough Quest (second in the Gold Cup) and Bindaree (sixth in the William Hill Chase) have gone on to win the Grand National. Many others have tried and failed.

CLASS
It may seem an obvious statement but every year thousands of pounds are lost on horses who don't have the class to win a Grand National. In the last 20 Grand Nationals every winner ran off an offical rating of between 136 and 157 with only Bobby Jo and Little Polvier winning from "out of the handicap"

AGE
In the last 66 years no horse younger than 8 has won the Grand National

The peak for a staying chaser is thought to be around 9 - 10 years old. Grand National trends back this up with seven of the last ten winners being aged nine or ten.

In the last 83 years no horse older than 12 has won the Grand National

---

Overall Guide
(1)8 to 12 years old
(2)handicap rating above 135 on the day (this year this means those with 10st 6lb or more)
(3)weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
(4)won over at least three miles
(5)run in at least ten chases
(6)won a chase worth at least £17,000
(7)at least been placed in a graded chase

---

So What Horses can actually win the 2006 Grand National
Ollie Magern,
Sir Rembrandt,
Innox,
Puntal,
Clan Royal,
Forest Gunner,
Ballycassidy,
Garvivonnian,
Heros Collonges,
Jack High,
Juveignour,
Iris Royal
Baron Windrush.

Only the above 13 should win this.

Most likely Winners on Paper
1 Innox at 16/1
2 Clan Royal at 6/1
3 Jack High at 25/1
4 Garvivonnian at 25/1

Some Prvious Winners
Age Weight Odds2005 Hedgehunter 9 11-1 7-1
2004 Amberleigh House 12 10-10 16-1
2003 Montys Pass 10 10-7 16-1
2002 Bindaree 8 10-4 20-1
2001 Red Marauder 9 10-12 33-1
2000 Papillon 9 10-12 10-1
1999 Bobbyjo 9 9-10 10-1
1998 Earth Summit 10 10-5 7-1
1997 Lord Gyllene 9 9-10 14-1
1996 Rough Quest 10 10-7 7-1
1995 Royal Athlete 12 10-6 40-1
1994 Miinehoma 11 10-8 16-1
1993 VOID
1992 Party Politics 8 10-7 14-1
1991 Seagram 11 10-6 12-1
1990 Mr Frisk 11 10-6 16-1


Also, interesting to note that I don't think any 2 successive favourites have ever won the grand national which may rule out Clan Royal. Most winners seem to be in the 10/1 to 20/1 bracket (Innox?).

Finnpark's Value Selection
Ballycassidy at 170/1 on Betfair is my bet for the 2006 grand national. This horse has a lot in its favour although past tis best. Never fell since last last year's national when it unseated rider, very few falls before that. It has won over 3 miles before. It has perfect age and weight and should get around this time. It has running in all the big races. It can certainly be placed and at 170/1 its great value if it runs. I really think it should be < 20/1. The negatives are that it is past tis best and may be tired also.

Bizmark
Hedgehunter - dont back.

Hope this helps.

masterK

You could have just linked to the article Finnpark:

http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-tips.php

finnpark

masterK wrote:

You could have just linked to the article Finnpark:

http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-tips.php

Very useful though. The stats are usually spot on. Also, this is how Pricewise etc make their big race predictions. Get on Ballycassidy at 160/1:D

jimmyboy

that was absolutely brilliant;)
cheers FINNPARK:D

fade2black

:rolleyes:

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

finnpark

ziggy67 wrote:

Chortle chortle

Caught out big time!

Well I dont think any1 would think that all of this is my own original recording of data.

All the same, the above data should prove a worthwhile read.;)

jimmyboy

yea i no, but cheers for putting it up:)

finnpark

No problem Youn Jimmy?

Anyone got any views on Ballycassidy? My main concern, if it runs, would be that it may be over run and also past tis best. But it certainly has a shout. I couldn't understand why it was entered in all the big races but Im sure that it is layed out for the National. Surely overpriced at 170/1. Jack High is an interesting one , wasn't trying when the Hedgehunter and Beefor Salmonella beat it and its obvious that its been layed out for the national.

chump

Bookies doing no runner no bet, payin to 5 places. Usually is this what they pay to on the day? I forget...

jimmyboy

Finn were them odds on Ballycassidy on Betfair because Ican only see him at 66/1

wb

Yep, this would be betfair.

Ballycassidy is currently trading at 150 on betfair (149/1 in traditional odds)

I see from the betting on him that someone put €2 on him at 159/1, and some other poor sod bet €1 on him at 1/100 :eek: Oh dear Such is the madness of betfair sometimes

If you don't use betfair, the best bookie prices at the time of posting are, like you said, about 66/1 (generally availble, including paddypower)

jimmyboy

does any1 know when or even where you can find the entries for the powers whiskey irish grand national
cheers

masterK

For those of you who intend picking your selection based on the well known stats of previous years here are a couple of notes to keep in mind.

Firstly the argument that a horse cannot win the national with more than 11 stone 5 could well be shot to pieces this year, Hedgehunter although carrying top weight should actually be carrying 10lb more. The grand national weights were finalised before Hedgehunters gold cup 2nd.

Secondly on a more general note, quite a lot of previous Grand Nationals have had a large number of the field racing from out of the handicap, therefore quite often a 3rd of the horses were carrying more weight than they should have and therefore had no chance. The old argument of ignoring the bottom third of the field is not longer valid. This has not happened in the last couple of years therefore a lot of stats correlated prior to the last couple of years are not valid any more IMO.

If you want further proof of this look at the top of the market, by using the stats you would deduce that Hedgehunter as too much weigth, Clan Royal is too old, while 3rd favourite Numbersixvalderde has never been placed in a Graded race, he's never actually ran in one outside of novice company. Other fancied runners such as Royal Auclair, Fondmort and Cornish Rebel all have too much weight

Out of the fancied runners only really Innox fits the bill and the fact McCoy will be riding Clan Royal instead would put me off him.

So it seems to me if the statistics are to hold up this year then there will be a big priced winner, either that or the statistics will be wrong, I know where my money will be.

Morgans

Agree 100% with MasterK. The grand national has changed completely in the past 5 years, resembling a limited handicap more than anything. Horses at the top of the weights are now 'well in' when compared to their actual ability. Stats should not be relied upon when analysing any race. Recently the idea has come about that the Grand National can be cut down to three or four possible winners due to stats. Stat one re the weights would have ruled the first two horses out of the contest in the first go. Each horses chance should be analysed on its own merits. Otherwise, you might be convinced that Ballycassidy has the best chance of winning this year.

fade2black

I thought Hedgehunter was carrying too much weight last year but there ya go. Agree totally, it's time for a reacessment.

wolfe

I read somthing about Ferdy Murphy saying he thinks Haute de Gamme is way overpriced for the National at 40/1 in some places. However he also claimed that Joes Edge schooled the best out of all his horses for cheltenham (i duely backed each way at 150/1) and to my surprise it only finished 11th.

If it turns out like his results in cheltenham i would tend to back his Longshots rather than those that are half fancied!

Morgans

Ferdy Murphy, of all trainers, is the greatest promoter of his own horses, thinking that everyone could win a Gold Cup or a National. Take everything, and i mean everything, he says with a pinch of salt. That said, I think Haut de Gamme is one of the few value bets left in the race.

The jock

Juveigner maybe the one at a price

[nicK]

i've taken Garvivonnian..

Cornish Rebel is holding a decent price on betfair at 29s compared to paddypowers 16-1..

may be worth taking and laying closer to the off..

masterK

I see Ballycassidy is now out of the race, I hope Finnpark didn't get stuck in.

Roskam

masterK wrote:

I see Ballycassidy is now out of the race, I hope Finnpark didn't get stuck in.

I got stuck in on this horse a little on Betfair only yesterday so unfortunate its only today he decided to pull out!!. Suppose that goes with the territory when getting such big odds on Betfair. Aint sure at all what to go for now. Will probably wait until the final declarations are made before deciding. Innox does intersest me a little, Mccoys obviously in Clan Royal so may wait and see who will be on board.

scojones

[nicK] wrote:

i've taken Garvivonnian..

He's a horse that was given to me back before xmas, who, after I posted it on this forum won at 33/1. Powerstation was also given to me by the same person, and that ran a stormer over in Cheltenham to come second to Black Jack Ketchum.

finnpark

masterK wrote:

For those of you who intend picking your selection based on the well known stats of previous years here are a couple of notes to keep in mind.

Firstly the argument that a horse cannot win the national with more than 11 stone 5 could well be shot to pieces this year, Hedgehunter although carrying top weight should actually be carrying 10lb more. The grand national weights were finalised before Hedgehunters gold cup 2nd.

Secondly on a more general note, quite a lot of previous Grand Nationals have had a large number of the field racing from out of the handicap, therefore quite often a 3rd of the horses were carrying more weight than they should have and therefore had no chance. The old argument of ignoring the bottom third of the field is not longer valid. This has not happened in the last couple of years therefore a lot of stats correlated prior to the last couple of years are not valid any more IMO.

If you want further proof of this look at the top of the market, by using the stats you would deduce that Hedgehunter as too much weigth, Clan Royal is too old, while 3rd favourite Numbersixvalderde has never been placed in a Graded race, he's never actually ran in one outside of novice company. Other fancied runners such as Royal Auclair, Fondmort and Cornish Rebel all have too much weight

Out of the fancied runners only really Innox fits the bill and the fact McCoy will be riding Clan Royal instead would put me off him.

So it seems to me if the statistics are to hold up this year then there will be a big priced winner, either that or the statistics will be wrong, I know where my money will be.

If Hedgehunter wins I will eat my hat but the chances of it even being placed are pretty slim. Hedgehunter was layed out for the Gold Cup this year. I don't think it will go very close in the National although I would love to see it.

The stats are usually very accurate for big races and big meetings. Of course stats surprises can happen but when you see the winner of the nationaol this year you will see that it fits in fairly well with the stats.

So What Horses can actually win the 2006 Grand National
Ollie Magern,
Sir Rembrandt,
Innox,
Puntal,
Clan Royal,
Forest Gunner,
Garvivonnian,
Heros Collonges,
Jack High,
Juveignour,
Iris Royal
Baron Windrush.
Joe's Edge????

No grey should win and the winner should be under 25/1 which will narrow it down even more.

Only time will tell if stats will be accurate for this year's national but I suspect that the stats will be accurate.

finnpark

masterK wrote:

I see Ballycassidy is now out of the race, I hope Finnpark didn't get stuck in.

Only had 50 EW with a bookie on it. I know some bookies are paying back at this stage but not mine:( .

If you back at Betfair you cant really show off if you get the winner:D

Morgans

Stats can be useful when applied correctly but ignoring horses because of their colour is stupid. About as useful as saying that no horse beginning with the letter D has won the race in the past, so dont back Dun Doire or Direct Access. Even Devon Loch got jinxed by this 'stat'. Stats should not be used as a shortcut to ignore horses. Each should be judged on their merits in the context of the race. Horses dont lose races because they are grey, because of the colour of the jockey's silks etc, they lose them because they are not good enough. I only know one quote regarding statistics.

The most quoted stat re the grand national last year was that horses carrying over 11 stone can be safely ignored. How wrong they were. The nature of the grand national has changed, and undeniably horses toward the top of the weights are being given more and more of a chance to prove their class.

finnpark

Morgans wrote:

Stats can be useful when applied correctly but ignoring horses because of their colour is stupid. About as useful as saying that no horse beginning with the letter D has won the race in the past, so dont back Dun Doire or Direct Access. Even Devon Loch got jinxed by this 'stat'. Stats should not be used as a shortcut to ignore horses. Each should be judged on their merits in the context of the race. Horses dont lose races because they are grey, because of the colour of the jockey's silks etc, they lose them because they are not good enough. I only know one quote regarding statistics.

Fair point about the colour alright but practical issues such as weight, age etc cannot be ignored.;)

Morgans

The fact remains that HEdgehunter was ruled out as a possible winner last year because he was carrying 11 stone 1. While Amberleigh House was ruled out by most the year before because he was a 12 year old. There are no shortcuts in selecting the national winner. And ruling out half the field because of stats is a dangerous job.

I think you shouldnt approach the national any different to any other race, and carrying big weights in heavy ground over 4m4f is only for the best of horses, but the handicapper also understands that and has given those at the head of the weights a real chance. Up to five years ago, top weights would have to give 28lbs to teh lowest rated in the national, however this year the max will probably be 21lbs. That's not even allowing for the fact that the handicapper hasnt allotted those at the head of the weights as much weight as he should have done, means ruling them out of contention out of hand is dangerous.

finnpark

Morgans wrote:

The fact remains that HEdgehunter was ruled out as a possible winner last year because he was carrying 11 stone 1. While Amberleigh House was ruled out by most the year before because he was a 12 year old. There are no shortcuts in selecting the national winner. And ruling out half the field because of stats is a dangerous job.

Ruled out by who?

Both won within stastistics. Below 11s 5ib is acceptable and 8 to 12 years old. The stats wont be that far away and many had the winners of the last few nationals based on stats. Stats cannot predict the exact winner but will eliminate many and give you a fair idea of which horse will win.

Sizzler

Lets be honest...its a lottery lads....look what happened to mccoy last year :-)

fr wishy washy

There is a good chance of easy going this year which would be all against Hedgehunter.If it comes up soft he will be a big drifter on the day (even allowing for the Ruby factor) so hold your money imho.

fade2black

Hedgehunter has won on good, good to soft, soft, heavy. I don't think the ground is going to be a problem.

finnpark

Sizzler wrote:

Lets be honest...its a lottery lads....look what happened to mccoy last year :-)

It is a lottery but you can eliminate many of the 40 numbers by using a level of intelligence. You have to use some method to select a winner. We are all going to have a bet or three on this race so we may as well try to get a run for our money at least. It is a bit like looking in the river alright.

finnpark

fade2black wrote:

Hedgehunter has won on good, good to soft, soft, heavy. I don't think the ground is going to be a problem.

Probably not alright. Hedgehunter loves the course, distance and has a good jockey on board. Its also a good jumper.

But, it ran a huge race in the Gold Cup 3 weeks ago and the weight is also against it big time. Its really difficult to see Hedgehunter in the running this time. It would one of most incredible acheivments in racing of all time if it happens but its odds dont represent its realistic chances in my own opinion. I think Hedgehunter will be a much bigger price at some, I mean you couldn't back a horse in the national at those sort of odds anyway.

Sizzler

Does anybody give Dun Doire a chance if he runs??! Not withstanding the trainer is a gob****e :-)

fade2black

finnpark wrote:

Probably not alright. Hedgehunter loves the course, distance and has a good jockey on board. Its also a good jumper.

But, it ran a huge race in the Gold Cup 3 weeks ago and the weight is also against it big time. Its really difficult to see Hedgehunter in the running this time. It would one of most incredible acheivments in racing of all time if it happens but its odds dont represent its realistic chances in my own opinion. I think Hedgehunter will be a much bigger price at some, I mean you couldn't back a horse in the national at those sort of odds anyway.

He is too short and it would be a superb achievment to place a horse in the Gold Cup and win a National but...Hedgehunter has shown that he posesses a bit of class and is built to carry that kind of weight. I wouldn't be piling in at those prices but I wouldn't be quick to write him off.

finnpark

Sizzler wrote:

Does anybody give Dun Doire a chance if he runs??! Not withstanding the trainer is a gob****e :-)

I thought there was a doubt over his participation?

Trainers to stay away from are Martin pipe and Jonjo O'Neill. Their stables have gone real bad. I heard that Jonjo O'Neill has very serious health problems and that some young Irish trainer is been lined up to take over his stable. Pipe also seems to be in decline, seems to be more than a virus too.

fr wishy washy

fade2black wrote:

Hedgehunter has won on good, good to soft, soft, heavy. I don't think the ground is going to be a problem.

I can't help remember him falling when very tired on easier going in the 04 race and with the extra weight this year I just can't see him do it but I've been known to be wrong before .

masterK

Sizzler wrote:

Does anybody give Dun Doire a chance if he runs??! Not withstanding the trainer is a gob****e :-)

Would definitely have a chance, although it's highly unlikely he'll get a run, he needs around 17 horses to come out.

fade2black

fr wishy washy wrote:

I can't help remember him falling when very tired on easier going in the 04 race and with the extra weight this year I just can't see him do it but I've been known to be wrong before .

That was a very tired fall. He has come on and awful lot from that though.