Cheltenhnam Preview Enjoy!!!!

decies

The Cheltenham Festival
Preview Evenings Reports 2006

KELLS - THURSDAY MARCH 2nd

The panel consisted of trainer Noel Meade (NM), Norman Williamson (NW),
David Casey (DC), professional punter Michael Gannon (MG) who was very
astute and Nina Carberry (NC) who to be honest did not have much to say
(she arrived a little late having ridden at Limerick).

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

NM: Sweet Wake is very good but is price up on Flat form rather than
hurdles. Has done everything asked of him. If it's good ground Jazz
Messenger will join him - ignore last run as he hates tacky ground.
DC: Sweet Wake is the one to beat but I'm worried what he might or might
not find off the bridle because we don't know yet.
NW: Noland doesn't look quick enough and O'Muircheartaigh had a poor
prep so I prefer Straw Bear.
MG: Sweet Wake is a shocking price, the best value is Rasharrow at
around 33/1.

Arkle Trophy

NM: I've messed up with Wild Passion this season so is massive value at
25/1. He is very classy and I really think he will be in the first
three. I'm most worried about Accordion Etoile & Foreman.
DC: I'm worried Missed That won't jump quick enough but possibly
Cheltenham can spark him up in that respect.
NW: I would lay Racing Demon for my life if I was a bookmaker. Foreman
(e-w) is the solid bet.
MG: Foreman is a classy, experienced second season novice and by far the
best bet of the race.

Champion Hurdle

NM: Dessie Hughes tells me Hardy Eustace is improving every day but I
think it's a long way back for him. Can't see Mac's Joy winning. Brave
Inca is my banker of the meeting with Al Eile the main danger.
DC: If given a spare ride it would be Brave Inca but he is not good
value. I've heard there is a chance Asian Maze may run here and if so,
she would be an each-way bet.
NW: McCoy thinks that Brave Inca is the banker of the week. If Howard
Johnson's came back to form I would take Arcalis.
MG: Brave Inca will be hard to beat but won't get his own way. Al Eile
is fresh and better value.
NC: Brave Inca the one to beat but Al Eile won't be far away.

Royal & SunAlliance Hurdle

NM: Micanor and Mr Nosie both run. Everything is hard work for Mr Nosie
but he keeps pulling it out. Nicanor always works well and travels great
but was very tired after beating Travino. I can't split them
NW: Denman is a crazy price and could lack speed. Refinement is huge at
12/1 - ask yourself why Black Jack Ketchum is likely to run in the three
miler.
DC: I wonder if Refinement will go for the Coral Cup off a low weight.
Zaiyad at around 12/1 is a good price.
NC: Paul (Carberry) has given me no indication which of Meade's he will
ride. I prefer Mr Nosie with Refinement the danger.
MG: I wouldn't touch Denman with a bargepole. Mr Nosie is so tough and
will be in the first three for sure. Damien McElroy: Power Station is
tough and a big price, and Charles Byrnes would not bring him over for
nothing.

Royal & SunAlliance Chase

NM: I liked the way Darkness went up the Sandown hill. Our Ben looked
slow at Leopardstown so 4/1 is short. Church Island at 20/1 is the best
value. Father Matt will not run.
DC: Our Ben is quite slow so a longer trip will suit but I can't have
him at 4/1. Two I like are Bewleys Berry if Johnson's horses come back
to form, and Turpin Green.
NW: Commercial Flyer was brilliant on debut but is he good enough?
Charlie Egerton has never rated Darkness!! Turpin Green is the e-w bet.
MG: Commercial Flyer blew up on his seasonal debut when winning and
there is loads more to come.
NC: If ground was soft I would want to ride Church Island.

Champion Chase

NM: Watson Lake is very good but has had problems since Xmas, but things
are going better now but he wants ease in the ground. Uphill battle for
Moscow so I have to be with Kauto Star, with Fota Island the best of the
Irish.
NC: I think Moscow or Fota Island will win.
DC: Only the front three in the market can win. Moscow is no back number
yet but Kauto Star is the one to beat and will improve for a left handed
track.
NW: Nicholls says Kauto Star is the best he has ever trained but I'd
still side with Moscow Flyer. The yard was in terrible form when he got
beat.
MG: Kauto and Moscow are poor value. I've backed Fundamentalist (e-w)
and Dempsey at huge prices. This can be a year for a surprise.

Weatherbys Champion Bumper

DC: My boss (Willie Mullins) has 5 in the race. Ballytrim does nothing
at home but bolted up on the course, but Equus Maximus would be my pick
of the team. I'd also take a chance with Alfie Flint (Alan Swinbank) who
I'm told works better than Collier Hill. Ruby Walsh will be riding one
for Mullins rather than Kicks For Free.
NM: We'll have no runner this year. Equus Maximus beat one of mine (Lord
Lumey) that I fancied very strongly so he'd be my pick. To be honest, I
was stunned he beat ours so easily that day.
NW: Equus Maximus is the one. Ballytrim beat nothing.
MG: Lord Over won at Listowel and is trained by Pat Flynn who has won it
before. He is owned by Michael Smurfit and I had a very good word for
him at 50/1 last week.
NC: Equus Maximus for sure, very impressed when I rode him.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle

DC: Mighty Man has to improve. Asian Maze is a certainty if lining up
but I've heard she may go for the Champion. If that is the case, Ambobo
(e-w) for me.
NM: Baracouda has had his day. Asian Maze and No Refuge have big chances
but I'd fancy Al Eile if he ran here instead of the Champion.
NC: Asian Maze or Mighty Man for me. Don't think Golden Cross or
Baracouda are good enough.
NW: Al Eile would be a steering job if they ran him here but that's
unlikely. No Refuge for me if the yard comes back to form.
MG: No bet for me but Patriarch Express if overpriced at 20/1.

Ryanair Chase

NM: Sir OJ runs as the British handicapper has murdered him. On his new
rating he must have a chance.
NC: Sir OJ is in form and likes the course, will do for me.
DC: Our Vic
NW: Impek has a problem with the hill so Sir OJ for me at around 10/1.
MG: Fondmort loves the place and is the one to beat.

JCB Triumph Hurdle

DC: Mister Hight is very good and has what you need for this race. Short
of fitness last time so will definitely improve. Breathing Fire at 33/1
makes e/w appeal. Quatre Heures probably goes for the Supreme Novices'.
NM: Mister Hight is one of the Irish bankers - stays, jumps and has lots
of speed.
NC: Mister Hight but no strong opinion.
MG: Afsoun is 7lbs worse off with Turko but is 6/1 whereas Turko is 14/1
so it's obvious where the value is.
NW: If he goes on the ground Mister Hight is the one to beat, though
Mick Fitz was screaming about Afsoun before he even ran over hurdles.

Brit Insurance Hurdle:

NM: Toofarback has won 3-4 and we think he has a chance, actually he has
a huge chance.
DC: Don't fancy Travino as he lacks pace. Black Jack Ketchum will win.
NW: It's between BJ Ketchum and Neptune Collonges.
MG: BJ Ketchum will start 6/4, Neptune has no chance unless it's soft.
NC: Karanja is a horse I know well and will be suited by 3m for certain.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

NM: Beef Or Salmon will not have a better opportunity to win a Gold Cup.
Michael says for the first time ever he has him right and feeling no
pain. I'd still be worried about the ground though. Kingscliff is a
plodder and if L'Ami wins I'll give up!!! War Of Attrition is the
unknown quantity.
NC: B or S struggles with the fast pace in England but loyalty makes him
my pick ahead of Monkerhostin.
DC: Don't fancy Monkerhostin as KK was well below best in King George.
I'd be looking for value and Sir Rembrandt has a squeak at around 40/1.
NW: Bad Gold Cup. Sir Rembrandt was third last time and Warren Marston
told me after the race he would win the Gold Cup, as the first two off
low weights got away from him that day.
MG: Monkerhostin won't stay. War Of Attrition has a similar profile to
Kicking King and is open to more improvement than most.

finnpark

Wouldn't trust their opinions to be honest, especially Nina Carberry. I will be laying everything she tips there.

Hedgehunter remains my antepost bet for the gold cup at 22/1 Betfair - some money for it this week too.

finnpark

decies wrote:

NM: Baracouda has had his day.

I don't agree - its a great bet as far as I can see.

fade2black

Some of these renewals are shaping up to be very poor indeed. If Hedgehunter and Baracouda win at Cheltenham this year Ill be both surprised and disappointed.

finnpark

fade2black wrote:

Some of these renewals are shaping up to be very poor indeed. If Hedgehunter and Baracouda win at Cheltenham this year Ill be both surprised and disappointed.

I think Hedgehunter is good value at the moment. It will be every bit as good as beef or salmon with a little extra distance and the hill at the end, im certain it will get the better of BorS this time.

As for Baracouda , its one of favourite horses and I would be surprised if this classy machine is outside the top 3 .

qzy

I have just registered to say thanks for that!

Crumbs

Thanks decies, good read. I liked Noel Meade's comments about Wild Passion. Backed him recently at 25s for the Arkle.

decies

Thanks for the thanks.There must be some useful information buried in there!!!.went to clonmel today had three winners in the six races i stayed for thats two more winners than normal at a race meeting for me:eek:

masterK

Good write up Decies, some interesting points, especially on the bumper.

fade2black

The attheraces online video preview

qzy

Popped down the road last night to be part of a huge crowd in Roscommon last night , where there was a top class panel. Colm Murray was compere for the night.

Panel: Brian Keenan (bookmaker, BK), Tom Hogan (TH), Paul Carberry (PC),
Noel O’Brien (NOB), Colm Murray (CM), Damien McElroy (DmcE), Dessie Hughes (DH), David Elsworth (DE), Tony Martin ™, Davy Russell (DR), Eamon “Dusty” Sheedy (ES)


Supreme Novices: Really revolved around Sweet Wake. PC reckoned he was one of the best horses he has ever sat on, and could be a Champion Hurdle horse next year. “The faster they go the better for my horse” he said. He even went as far as saying that “If he gets a clear run he is a certainty”. TH thought that his only fear for Sweet Wake was really fast ground, and that he “jumps like a deer”. DR went for Sweet Wake also, as “Paul doesn’t often get these things wrong”. TM thought that Sweet Wakes maiden hurdle win was unreal, “home and dry”. He suggested Crow Wood as an EW alternative. NOB was the only doubter. He thought that on bare form the favourite has not done enough to convince him, even though it was a weak renewal. He suggested that Quatres Heures has done as much and gets weight!

Arkle Chase: NOB was of the opinion that this was the best race of the festival. He thought that Racing Demon was opposable and that Foreman could well be the best horse in the race. He also suggested that Tamarinbleu might have an EW chance.
DE has it between Accordion Etoile and Foreman. DR said that - “the favourite can’t win!” and thought that Foreman was “the bet of the meeting”. PC echoed the almost unanimous thoughts on Racing Demon with a “no chance”. PC also thought that Missed That didn’t jump quickly enough, and suggested Wild Passion as an EW bet as he was “jumping out of his skin at home”. DmcE was keen on Accordion Etoile, and suggested everyone lay Racing Demon. ES confirmed that Justified will miss the festival.

Champion Hurdle: DH was the centre of attention for this one, as you might expect. “We have him back right”! He also said that when leaving Cheltenham last year he thought that Arcalis was the only horse that could beat his this year! PC got a bit of slagging re: Harchibald last year but he took it all very well - “Everyone seen my arse, but I was looking at his all the way”. He thinks that Brave Inca has improved since last year and will be hard to beat. TH won’t oppose Hardy Eustace as “Dessie is a past master at getting them 110% right for the big day”. NOB was of the opinion that Hardy was an “amazing price after an easy season” and that Brave Inca has had a much harder year. DE said that Howard Johnson was “sweet” on the chances of Arcalis. ES was a Brave Inca fan, as was TM, who went as far as suggesting he was “a good thing”.

Royal & Sun Alliance Hurdle: PC has not decided which horse to ride yet, but won’t be letting Noel Meade pick as “he always gets it wrong”. He suggested that Nicanor was a class animal but may not be experienced enough. Noel Meade thinks that Nicanor could be a future Gold Cup horse! He thinks, though, that Denman will be very hard to beat. NOB thought that Denman reminded him of Inglis Drever and is the best of the English horses. DmcE suggested Refinement as an EW bet with the mares allowance. TM put up Zaiyad as EW value as he was impressed with his run against handicappers last time. DE suggested that Denman may well be his bet of the meeting. All agreed that Black Jack Ketchum would go the 3m option.

Royal & Sun Alliance Chase: DR suggested here that The Railway Man is a “very, very good horse” and he is very confident of a big run. “He won’t be 25/1 on the day lads”! He ruled out Church Island on the basis that his jumping wouldn’t be good enough – “he was beaten in two beginners chases in Kilbeggan”, and he did the same with Darkness. PC, however, suggested that Darkness may be the one they all have to beat. TM reminded us that lots of “hot-pots” have been beaten in this race over the years, but that Arthur Moore will have his “well schooled, well prepared”. He also suggested that Commercial Flyer was the main danger. DE gave a tentative selection to Darkness. DmcE reckoned that Our Ben was “rotten value” and that Commercial Flyer could be the dark horse here.

Queen Mother: Not much confidence in Moscow Flyer I’m afraid. TH thinks that Kauto Star will win this race. He said that Paul Nichols told a good friend of his that Kauto Star, Andreas and Denmam were his confident selections at Cheltenham. DH is confident that Central House will get up the hill this year, and that he “can beat all of the Irish Horses”. He was not that impressed with Fota Island at Fairyhouse last time. PC thought that a Grand Annual winner under 10st should not be good enough in a Champion Chase. NOB thought that it was the weakest Champion Chase in quite a while, with Moscow Flyer running a “stone below his best” this year. He wasn’t convinced about Kauto Stars jumping. ES was a Kauto Star fan, as was DE “a sure fire winner if he can jump quickly enough”. TM, not for the first time, had a slightly different opinion. He liked Ashley Brooke, “a big old fashioned chaser”, and thought he had a good chance if he improved for the good ground as expected.

Bumper: Equus Maximus was the general pick in the bumper. PC was impressed with him when he beat “a good horse of Noels” last time. TM was not really convinced by Ballytrim, whom he considers a 3m chaser for the future. He thought that Kicks for Free might be the one, especially if Ruby rides it. TH opined that - “the 4yo might be the best of these. A flat bred horse that was fit enough last May to win a maiden on the flat but didn’t make it”. DR will ride Dancing Hero but doesn’t think he is good enough.

Ryanair Chase: NOB thought that War Of Attrition was the best horse in the race, but unlikely to run in this. BK, who owns Sir Oj, said they would run in this as they are “handicapped out of it” elsewhere. PC piped up that Sir Oj is a serious horse, and they were thinking about the Grand National! DmcE suggested they would be afraid of Fondmort and Our Vic. The panel were being rushed through at this stage, as the squawking from the bar got louder and louder from the Gin & Tonic Corporate guests.

Stayers Hurdle: BK said that the bookmakers had taken “no money at all” on Baracouda. PC advised everyone to “have a good few quid at 7 /1or 8/1” on Aisan Maze NRNB as she has a “serious bit of speed”. TM thought that Asian Maze had No Refuge to beat if the ground was good or better, and Baracouda “had his day”. DR was worried about the poor prep that Asian Maze had, and preferred Golden Cross as he “has loads of class, and is begging for this step up in trip”. DmcE put forward Ambobo as his EW pick, and was convinced that “something will go past Baracouda”. TH thought that Asian Maze would be a better horse later in the spring “like most mares are”, and preferred Golden Cross. NOB said that “Ambobo is the best of the French” and Asian Maze will need to improve “a lot”. He suggested that Golden Cross was the best of the Irish hopes.

Triumph Hurdle: PC said “Pass”! I think the Vodka & Red Bull was kicking in at this stage! Both DH and DR were big fans of Mister Hight with “stands out” and “looks classy” the general opinion. TM went a bit further, calling Mister Hight “a good thing”. He also put forward Jessica Harringtons horse as an EW bet. DH put his own horse, First Row, forward as a good EW bet on the likely good ground. DR reminded us that this horse was good enough to get to the start in a Derby! NOB thought that Afsoun was the best of the English, and reminded everyone of the value of course form.

Gold Cup – PC was of the opinion that Beef Or Salmon has had his best prep for Cheltenham, and would be very hard to beat. NOB remembered the 15l he made up two years ago and stated he was “the best horse in the race, a true Grade 1 horse”. DH, when asked which horse he would have liked to ride in a Gold cup had no hesitation in putting forward Beef Or Salmon as he “is full of class. This has to be his year”. DR thought it was an “open and shut” case, and Beef Or Salmon will win. The ground won’t be a worry, he said, as he won a Heineken and a Czeravich on firm ground already. TM urged a bit of caution, as it was “all about the ground for Beef Or Salmon. Monkerhostin has the form and the class if the ground is better than yielding”.. TH was worried that the “no hopers, going faster than they want to” will cause problems for the better horses in the race. War Of Attrition was generally put forward at the EW bet in the race

All the pundits were asked at the end for their Nap, EW, and Bizmark of the week.

Brian Keenan – Sweet Wake (nap) / War Of Attrition (EW) / Kauto Star (Lay)
Tom Hogan - Kauto Star / Wild Passion / Racing Demon
Paul Carberry – Sweet Wake / Wild Passion / Racing Demon (added Buailtes and Fadas)
Noel O’Brien – Denman / The Railway Man / Our Ben
Damien McElroy – Sweet Wake / Refinement / Denman
Dessie Hughes – Denman / Central House / Baracouda
David Elsworth - Kauto Star / War Of Attrition / Brave Inca
Tony Martin – Ross River / Well Tutored / Ballytrim
Davy Russell - Foreman / First Row / Racing Demon
Eamon “Dusty” Sheedy – Brave Inca / Wild Passion / Racing Demon

finnpark

Compare all the odds at:
http://www.racing-index.com/cheltenham-festival.html

PP give the most accurate predictions

Note: PP only 14/1 for One Night for Gold Cup, strange as every other bookie was higher in odds;) .

Also, check out www.irishracing.com and scroll down to Moscow Flyer report - seems to be a contradiction to RP. Don't think I will be backing this race at all

eirebhoy

qzy wrote:

DR will ride Dancing Hero but doesn’t think he is good enough.

He's 7/1 in Boyles while at 16s with Ladbrokes. I think I'll have a small e/w bet on him.

fade2black

http://www.irish-racing.com/audio/rss.xml

Copy and paste that into winamp


The Betdaq Cheltenham Preview Night
Listen to probably the finest panel lined up throughout the Cheltenham Preview season. Recorded at the Marriott Hotel, London on Thurday night, the Betdaq Cheltenham Preview Night is now available to download. The panel members of Ted Walsh, John Francome, Paul Nicholls, Tony McCoy and Russel Wiseman give their considered opinions on their best hopes for the Cheltenham Festival, all kept in order by Gareth O'Brien.

Or just go to the homepage of irish racing

fade2black

For the last few weeks whenever I've been playing poker the horse that's been talked up a lot for the supreme novices is Sublimity, currently at around 25-1. Noel Meade has the favourite in this with Sweet Wake but according to the racing post's card for that day they Have Carberry down to ride Sublimity? Any opinions?

fade2black

Ted Walsh's opinion on the Champion Hurdle is particularly interesting.

"Brave Inca just waiting to be beat" "Wherever Mac's Joy finishes Asian Maze will be in front of him"

intheknow

Only solid tip I have is for the first race on tuesday, gone from 40,33,25..now 20 in paddy power, still 25 in william hill, but do it today...Sublimity..first race tues, Maybe a score ew..have a look anyway..I am told its a "model" !!!..H

fade2black

Read two posts up.

intheknow

fade2black wrote:

Read two posts up.

All the more reason to do it today then..Missed that post

finnpark

intheknow wrote:

All the more reason to do it today then..Missed that post

I reckon you backed this horse and are now hoping to lay it off at alower price:p

masterK

Lads Sublimity will be ridden by Phillip Carberry not Paul.

fade2black

Isn't Philip usually down as P A Carberry?

masterK

He is, it's just a mistake in RP.

fade2black

I was almost sure that Philip was injured. Anyway, mystery solved.

finnpark

fade2black wrote:

Some of these renewals are shaping up to be very poor indeed. If Hedgehunter and Baracouda win at Cheltenham this year Ill be both surprised and disappointed.

I guess you were right. But at 22/1 ANTEPOST it was a great ew bet. Im really sickened though, I think I would rather it was last and lose all my money rather than it to go so close. Let me down for thousands:mad:

decies

Thousands finnpark:eek:

finnpark

Am afraid so.:mad:

I still made quite a nice profit on it since I backed it ew but I stood to get my biggest win ever. Anyway, had the first and last winner so not so bad a day;) .

CiaranC

How does a 22-1 shot coming second in a race way above its class (in which you have garnered a profit) "let you down for thousands". Class animal, one of the fairy stories of the festival IMO.

Reminds me of a conversation I had recently where a girl claimed having 4 numbers was "nearly winning the lottery"...

fade2black

CiaranC wrote:

How does a 22-1 shot coming second in a race way above its class (in which you have garnered a profit) "let you down for thousands". Class animal, one of the fairy stories of the festival IMO.

Reminds me of a conversation I had recently where a girl claimed having 4 numbers was "nearly winning the lottery"...

Ciaran, you've summed it up well there. Hedgehunter has proved today that he does possess a little bit of class but it was a lot to ask of him winning a gold cup. The less said about Finnpark the better.