Lords of Kobol-please give us Blizzards

Supercell

Earthman wrote:

LoL

We now have a -12 850 on friday ..over south leinster...

I wonder does WC think thats enough for snow

I'm beginning to think it may actually happen this time after so many close calls and false dawns...please don't snatch it away fat lady!!

ninebeanrows

Daz GERMANIS have our LP:D
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/m/xl/200602191200_096.gif

ninebeanrows

Afraid to mention snow on the RTE broadcast:D

Wintry showers, hail, sleet...... but alas no snow:D :eek: :v:

He really wanted to say snow and I think he suspects thats what we are going to get.

Talk about ramping up the sleet[read snow because thats just as likely] though...
Strong winds and plenty of showers on the East coast...

There was none of that said on the farming forecast.

lucernarian

Damnit I missed the forecast again. Who was on?? Seems like it was a good one this evening. Are the temps forecasted to be lower than 5 degrees??

Btw I was amazed to see TV3 weather going for 8 celcius on Wednesday:eek:

They did have sleet forecast for Thursday though and a chance of snow was mentioned.

Gerry Murphy

I think he sounds like he is from the Whest somewhere

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Btw I was amazed to see TV3 weather going for 8 celcius on Wednesday:eek:

It will be 8c in your living room if you leave all the windows open.
I'm surprised he didnt think your living room would be colder.
He's probably allowing for the fact that though your windows will be wide open,you will have the heating on.
Did he say if the draft through the window would be an Easterly?




Thats what little confidence I have in their forecasts They lag behind reality in my opinion due to t6he fact that they are done by presenters and not real professional forecasters.

LookingFor

No mention of the word snow in the 9pm forecast, but they did not venture past Wednesday They had showers for the east down for Tues/Wed, turning increasingly wintry into wednesday.

SpitfireIV

Didnt Gerry mention some wintry showers turning up on the east coast on Tuesday night?

LookingFor

Can't remember if he narrowed it down to the night. He had showers down for Tuesday, getting wintrier from Wednesday IIRC. His little symbols changed more explicitly on Wednesday too, from the rainier ones on Tuesday to the sleetier ones on Wednesday

(I'm so scientific..)

ninebeanrows

Pen in Thursday as "Snow day" in your diary:D

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn844.png

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn8417.png

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn842.png

ninebeanrows

Heavys snows pushing WEST

SpitfireIV

Weathercheck wrote:

Pen in Thursday as "Snow day" in your diary:D

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn844.png

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn8417.png

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn842.png

Thanks for that WC, I just splashed out and bought myself two snowmobiles, I wont be disapointed now will I?? (:v: :v: )

Supercell

How are they in the slush?

SpitfireIV

Longfield wrote:

How are they in the slush?

Hmm, noisy I'd imagine, not to mention ripping up the footpaths

lucernarian

Wexford and possibly Wicklow look the best place to be currently for prolonged snow. Further north will more likely have rain during the heavist part of ppn.

Still could change on the day itself. I only have to see the LP move lesss than 100 miles north for me to be in the running. I think this one's impossible to predict at this time.

Most of the ensembles at 00z are going against prolonged cold. Just 3 outliers have consistent cold at some point or other.

ninebeanrows

Very blustery..... a tree in the garden snapped over night:eek:

Not so good this morning.. cold spell till Saturday and no more

But snow on Thursday still looks likely;)

lucernarian

Not too likely where I live or even where you live WC. There should be an inch to greet you on Friday morning but nothing more really unless there's a drastic improvement in our luck.

To_be_confirmed

We had a couple of noisy hail showers last night and one this morning.

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Most of the ensembles at 00z are going against prolonged cold. Just 3 outliers have consistent cold at some point or other.

The 00z run today was the mildest in the ensembles by the way with a huge bunch of them still very cold.
It's likely therefore that the next run or the 12z will be a colder one provided some of the numbers they are now crunching arent actually leading to milder weather.
I still dont trust these things beyond 4 days so the later runs today will be interesting for thursday-but beyond that who knows.

Well the o6z is certainly making up for its wayward brother the 00z

A -10 850 pool over southeast Ireland on Thursday

And then over practically the whole of Ireland

http://217.160.176.95/wz/pics/Rtavn722.png

But especially the south east

http://217.160.176.95/wz/pics/Rtavn842.png

This is only 3 days away if this run comes off...

After that the 850 temps rise to above minus 6 so a lot milder in terms of upper air temps.
But thats over next w/end and FI really.

It also seems correctly speculative that a sustained Northerly will appear after this but that Pressure will be too high over Ireland for showers(That could easily change)
Pressure remains high seemingly over Greenland which would indicate that the northerly or Northeasterly(Better) would be sustained.

FI has that heading down Eastern England at the moment and into Europe-but theres plenty of time yet for it to go even further East or better obviously further west.

In the short Term based on the 06 Z I'd be going for snow showers , thursday into friday and there could be a good covering in places
It's within reliability and the ensembles members this morning were mostly cold enough but I'd like to see the ensemble for this one before confidence goes above 60% on this.

Looking good though.

Gonzo

Norway/Sweden looks quite mild doesnt it with those yellow/orange colours?

darkman2

Good ensembles this morning. Some far colder members then the control run:)

ninebeanrows

Yes:)

Snow on Thursday in North Leinster, Ulster and the Midlands looks likely:)

ninebeanrows

potential getting closer but the time of the precip arriving may not suit

Temps around 3c with heavy precip with cold air buckling in behind..

I would think if you live above 150m's your guaranteed snow its a day
before job for us folks at 30m asl though;)

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Yes:)

Snow on Thursday in North Leinster, Ulster and the Midlands looks likely:)

Ulster?
So the new theory is the higher the pressure,the more precipitation??

I'm opting for snow on high ground being a given at this stage.
Low ground is borderline untill almost a nowcast situation especially on coasts.
I'll be looking at dewpoints and the M2 buoy temp prior to any precip coming in late wenesday,thursday and Friday.

I wouldnt be certain regarding how far west or North these showers travel either.
The lower the 850 temps the better as regards them getting further inland

Going on the 12Z I wouldnt be opting for much if any precip in North Leinster or Ulster with sea level pressure of 1032mb
But I would expect coastal showers to continue further south and by the looks of this they will be wintry especially in South Leinster

ninebeanrows

Hi Earthman im pinpointing where the Low pressur will end up

The 18z through all of Leinster and most of Ireland into the catchment zone
for widespread snow during Thursday:D

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn841.png

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn844.png

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn842.png

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn8417.png

Indeed if this were to happen,I'd be confident enough of snow here on Thursday if the dewpoints are subzero and the air temp is 3 or below



Most of the country drops off to -7c then and by Friday afternoon its a -5850, so any snow on low ground or at the coast shouldnt stick for long.

ninebeanrows

A cold day over the snow fields of Ireland

Ahhhhh a once in a few years event a coming i pray:D

50% conifidence on a widespread covering of 6-10cm's across the REP::D

It's on the edge of reliability even this close but on the postive side, this run seems to be coming from one of the milder members.
Theres certainly no -12's over Ireland-but shur -10 will do we're not fussy

But I'd agree with your revised assessment-theres certainly a good snow risk for the East and south East now.
Whether much will settle on the coast is another matter.
GFS usually over do's the temps so if all things stay the same it could be colder than that.

In last years snap ,we had a day here in or around plus one or two celcius and the -10 850's were as far away as Kent.
They certainly werent near here.

Supercell

Danno

Hmmm, This one is not cut in stone yet lads.

A low of only 1020hpa is not going to be anything too severe, a cloudy spell with some light showers IMHO.

Well late FI is certainly interesting.


And I like the cut of longfields smile.

Me signing off now.
Next train leaves shortly after none

For those of you taking the earliers shuttles (UKMO,DWD,GEM,FAX CHARTS, and ECMWF especially) please continue with your thoughts as and when you have them

lucernarian

Weathercheck wrote:

I would think if you live above 150m's your guaranteed snow its a day before job for us folks at 30m asl though

Is that meant to be some kind of tease??!? I live at 145 metres asl!!:p

I'm a bit dissapointed that the main bulk of the ppn seems to be sleet and rain when it could've been snow. The timing of it is poor as WC correctly said.

I had a look at metcheck and snow amounts have improved - is their interpretation of the charts correct? i.e. if the 06z run came off that 2 odd inches would be the result for Louth in my case?

SpitfireIV

Why so sad Longfield?? (:v: :v: )

Supercell

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Why so sad Longfield?? (:v: :v: )

Hehe, i've a feeling some parts of the country, maybe large parts, will be grinding to a halt on Thursday

Scubadevils

seems to be a lot more hope here than on net-weather? All talk now of models backtracking and downgrades? I'm glad this time round I haven't got too excited

ninebeanrows

No downgrades from what i was expecting...

A cold spell for a few days upto Saturday with no real mild breakdown
and the possibility of a Northerly outbreak after..

From Wednesday you wont get a max above 4/5 for at least 5 days;)

And Thursday has all the hallmarks of a great event.
Personally i dont want a closed circulation, a wave feature would
do perfect and im confident one will push through, this will give an
area of precip with limited windspeed so milder air is caught up from
the irish sea.

Most models through in that feature during Thursday so im fully hopeful
that we will see a few hours of snow on Thursday:)

SpitfireIV

Joe Ba$tardi's blog over on Accuweather below, looks interesting and Winter may still have a few surprises!

"Meanwhile the deepening of the mean trof near the northeast coast of North America forces even more ridge over Greenland and the jet on the eastern side digs anew into central Europe with the most WIDESPREAD arctic outbreak of the season by next weekend. While this won't be as cold in the east as previous outbreaks, it will be colder across the west. Much of England will see some snow over the next 10 days and temperatures across France are liable to average 3-5 C below normal the week of the 26th, for instance.

So, some nasty weather, certainly the most WIDESPREAD cold in relation to normal is developing as finally the negative NAO is developing a classic look -- one that will mean plenty of stormy, cold weather the next 10-15 days for all of Europe, except the southeast where it is more wet than cold. "



And from Net Weather:
"Thursday shows signs of being pretty interesting but its best to leave any real prediction on that for a day or two. As is the prospect of what ‘might’ happen over next weekend and further ahead."


And from my imagination:


:v: CroppyBoy1798

lucernarian

Weathercheck wrote:

this will give an
area of precip with limited windspeed so milder air is caught up from
the irish sea.

Is milder air being caught up in the wave feature a good thing???

It's going to be a real now cast situation in the next few days and on Thursday.
Nothing at all might happen though I doubt that.

It could be wet snow at low levels or on the coast with little or no settling.

But if snow becomes persistant, then it obviously will mean temps will drop during the snow fall so you could have an event on your hands.


As for net weather-most of the users there are UK based so wont be too interested in whats happening here except to dispair that it is not happening with them.

Incidently dewpoint has taken a tumble here.
0.8 and its only monday evening-thats a good sign.

Pressures rising though and the higher it is, the less heavy the precip.

If WC's low appears and it has a BM pressure of 1018 or lower then we are in business.
Thats the kind of shallow low you want caught up in an Easterly as it doesnt mess with the wind source too much.
They were common in the Irish sea in the 80's spells.

I remember one that formed off wexford and moved north up the Irish sea dumping several inches up along the East coast to Dublin.
That was either jan or february of 86.
It's effects were felt only inland as far as say Hacketstown to Naas though.

Scubadevils

How is this turning out better for us than the UK in an easterly?

Danno

Felix, two reasons...

1. We are further north.
2. The cold pool of air is over Wales and Ireland more-so than S E England.

LookingFor

The Sky News Ireland weather report was quite conservative. They actually forecast possible snow on high ground in the SE tonight, but for Thursday they had a lot of drizzly rain over the east of the country..

Met Eireann's forecast is same "cover all bases" one as since the weekend - "sunshine and wintry showers".

Supercell

Its going to be very very close probably, some areas are going to get loads of snow, other areas nearby will get nothing but sleety rain, elevation and luck will play a larger part in which area you are in.

Personally i'd say WC is well postioned for it, the lucky so and so, as historically the north/south borderline for snow/rain has often been just north of the city centre .
Have high hopes for here too though as am a couple of miles inland

It is actually an evolution.

ECM have widespread precip across the UK heading lighter into Ireland thursday into friday

Then they have a northerly with literally oceans of cold air in it.

Too far ahead to even think about.

ninebeanrows

Earthman wrote:

It is actually an evolution.

ECM have widespread precip across the UK heading lighter into Ireland thursday into friday

Then they have a northerly with literally oceans of cold air in it.

Too far ahead to even think about.

Hey earthman just wondering if infac tyour thinking this chart is showing precip

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!96!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006022012!!chart.gif

It is infact showing windspeed rather than precip..

I could be wrong and if i am please send the link of precip ECM chart this way:cool:

Supercell

Weathercheck, do you have a digital camera?, if my suspicions are true and you do better out of this than most of us, please post some snaps !!

I'm taking a wild guess but intuitive at what those increased wind speeds imply combined with the pressure.
I do know what that chart is for

Danno

SKY - what a useless weather service. They ALWAYS get it wrong.

RTE - I dunno what is going on there - cover all bases looks like it.

TV3 - What do they know - eejits the lot of them!



Anyone want to make a forecast for this week?