Lucinda Creighton - FG General Election Candidate Dublin South East

cousin_borat

By all accounts she seems to be a shrewd politician.

In order to secure enough votes to get the FG ticket for the general election in Dub South East Inner constituency she recruited all of her chums from Trinity Young Fine Gael to register they lived in addresses in the area. May be true or not but one or two were care of a local establishment. In any case they helped sway the vote for her in on the election night.
Totally out manouvered the other candidates running.

constitutionus

which still wont stop her ass getting kicked when the rest of the electorate in that consitiuancy go "who?"
south east inner city isnt exactly fianna gael central:)

cousin_borat

I agree. I'm sure FG will need to put a higher profile candidate on the ticket alongside her. Just some interesting tactics used by her in the first instance.

Time Magazine

cousin_borat wrote:

she recruited all of her chums from Trinity Young Fine Gael to register they lived in addresses in the area.

That, frankly, is wrong.

She did no such thing.

Trinity Young Fine Gael are registered, like all other college branches, in the constituency their college sits in. Any student of Trinity who was registered with the party by the deadline- like any other member of Fine Gael registered in the constituency - had the option of a vote in DSE.

You only have one vote in FG selection conventions, so many members decided to abstain from voting to save their vote for their home branch. The Vice-Chairman of the branch is a perfect example, who saved his vote for Cavan-Monaghan. Others who are either living on campus, and those who are politically most active in DSE, voted.

There were about 300 ballots cast in total. Trinity had 20 people at the convention, give or take one or two. The margin of victory was significantly more than 20.

I'm looking at the registration list for TYFG right now and I can't see anyone who has their address listed as a pub. Not one. A small minority are listed generically as "Trinity Halls" etc., but I don't know any of them - so they're probably people who signed up in Freshers' Week and who were never seen at meetings again.

Did we help sway the vote for Lucinda? Of course we did. But as members of the constituency who will be on the doorstep canvassing for her next year we're more than entitled to.

Totally out manouvered the other candidates running.

There was only one other candidate, Cllr. Brian Gillen, and he too tried to get the Trinity vote. About the time he realised we'd by and large decided to vote for Lucinda, out came the allegations that we were living in phantom addresses. It even made national news. As the thing under my name says: strange, that.

Time Magazine

constitutionus wrote:

which still wont stop her ass getting kicked when the rest of the electorate in that consitiuancy go "who?"
south east inner city isnt exactly fianna gael central:)

What crap. Dublin South East is pure Fine Gael country. Two FG taoisigh from there. Come on, it's D4!

And she's polled at 12% prior to the convention, with 5% going for Gillen. That can be expected to rise substantially. She's as good a chance as anyone getting in.

And it'll be a one-ticket strategy. A four-seater in Dublin 4 should provide a FG seat.

constitutionus

Angry Banana wrote:

What crap. Dublin South East is pure Fine Gael country. Two FG taoisigh from there. Come on, it's D4!

And she's polled at 12% prior to the convention, with 5% going for Gillen. That can be expected to rise substantially. She's as good a chance as anyone getting in.

And it'll be a one-ticket strategy. A four-seater in Dublin 4 should provide a FG seat.

he said dublin south inner city didnt he i think thats marino and ringsend (though open to correction,my inner city geography's crap )

Time Magazine

Yeah he said the word inner, it's called Dublin South East - but that includes the inner-city. Trinity's in DSE after all, so I presume the boundary starts at the Liffey and heads south.

And definitely the Creighton/Gillen contest was in DSE.

constitutionus

Angry Banana wrote:

Yeah he said the word inner, it's called Dublin South East - but that includes the inner-city. Trinity's in DSE after all, so I presume the boundary starts at the Liffey and heads south.

And definitely the Creighton/Gillen contest was in DSE.

ah , my mistake . i thought it was just the city area and he just left the city part out by accident im in the dublin south west constituancy and we dont have any representation for the city

Time Magazine

That there's a boundary map.

Snickers Man

constitutionus wrote:

which still wont stop her ass getting kicked when the rest of the electorate in that consitiuancy go "who?"
south east inner city isnt exactly fianna gael central:)

Dublin South East is the former constituency of one Garret Fitzgerald. Quite a succesful Fine Gaeler.

It includes the suburbs of Ballsbridge, Sandymount, and that part of Ringsend that is beginning to gentrify. (Charlotte Quay, new riverside developments etc etc) There is a hard core middle-class right-wing vote there. Currently soaked up by Michael McDowell.

There is also the wishy washy save the world right-on vote of the comfortable middle class (people like, er, me) who don't have the balls to be real right wing bastards and who might have voted Labour in the past but now tend to go for tireless constituency worker John Gormley of the Greens.

Also in the constituency is Eoghan Ryan of FF and now I see one of the Andrews dynasty has been parachuted in.

Anyway this is all irrelevant spoof because Creighton is going to get votes because she's a bit of a babe.

Well, by the standards of Leinster House women anyway.

I certainly would.

Things are certainly looking up since the days when Lesbian Feminist Liz Noonan ran in that constituency. The only woman I ever saw who could be mistaken for Lemmy from Motorhead.

cousin_borat

Wasn't aware that it was in the Newspapers, currently out of the country. Strange, that
It does seem to be the case that Gillen overlooked the YFG support.

Victor

Dublin South East is essentially D2, D4 & D6.

Cronus333

Victor wrote:

Dublin South East is essentially D2, D4 & D6.

aye. all nice middle class areas [except d2] that love FG, the PDs and the Greens [except d2]. but with FG almost certain to get a seat now, if they dont its incompitance. the real question will be who will she knock out? my bets are on the FF seat.

ISAW

Cronus333 wrote:

aye. all nice middle class areas [except d2] that love FG, the PDs and the Greens [except d2]. but with FG almost certain to get a seat now, if they dont its incompitance. the real question will be who will she knock out? my bets are on the FF seat.

rubbish! DSE might well be the weakest FF constuency in the country. given Eoin Ryan has gone to the EU and ther is no minister in DSE and currently no FF TD. All that is about the worst FF could expect.

Given that FF got 27 per cent last time out. In a four seater the second FF candidate came fifth. FF would have to ose 8 per cent - a third of its vote and all those votes go to FG and the greens and EVEN then Labout gain ANOTHER 8 per cent to ensure FF lost the seat. Actually even than FF might take the seat from the PD's if the Pd candidate didnt reach 20 per cent.

To summarise you would need FF 19 FG 20 Green or SF 20 Lab 20 and PD 20 for FF to lose the seat. Much beter for FG to just concentrate on getting the seat than worrying about whoever FF run. The most likely to lose the seat in DSE would be GP Lab and Pd in that order I guess though Labour might well lose to gormley should Quinn not be Running.

Snickers Man

ISAW wrote:

To summarise you would need FF 19 FG 20 Green or SF 20 Lab 20 and PD 20 for FF to lose the seat. Much beter for FG to just concentrate on getting the seat than worrying about whoever FF run. The most likely to lose the seat in DSE would be GP Lab and Pd in that order I guess though Labour might well lose to gormley should Quinn not be Running.

Being a DSE resident and not a political anorak my feeling is that Gormley will walk it. He had to go to a 10-day recount two elections ago against McDowell and the actions of the legal twats from the FF/PD coalition trying to get votes discarded as spoiled because there was a crease in the wrong place has left a bad taste that endures.

OK if the guy loses because he didn't get votes that's one thing but trying to discard votes that show a clear preference smacks of good ol' boy disenfranchisement. Fortunately the returning officer was made of sterner stuff than FF's lawyers and Gormley duly won out. He got through comfortably next time.

A very well liked and diligent constituency worker.

Labour could be in trouble if SF get a sizable vote in the poorer parts of the constituency. This is the hangout of Daithi Doolan but it's also where the guy who was murdered, allegedly by a freelance provo, came from. Hard to know what way that backlash will go.

So I reckon Gormley,McDowell and Creighton with Labour/FF contesting the last spot.

Time Magazine

Rumour has it that McDowell will struggle to hold his seat.

Quite a few of his supporters will not support him after all that he's done. Although he topped the poll last time round, he's become more vocal and more divisive in the last five years. It's reasonable to predict that the FG vote will soar from 10% to at least a strong 20%, with a lot of that support coming from the PD's. Assuming 5 points of McDowell's vote shifts that drops him to about 13% - which is dodgy ground for a seat.

I think the transfer pact may well be enough to win a seat for Labour.

But it's all very dodgy territory. Eoin Ryan (who got the 3rd seat) got more 1st preferences than Gormley (who clocked in first). It'll be interesting to see where FG/Lab votes transfer to. I don't want to call it. But FF's low transfers look dodgy, but SF might push them over. Hmm.

Cronus333

Angry Banana wrote:

Rumour has it that McDowell will struggle to hold his seat.

Quite a few of his supporters will not support him after all that he's done. Although he topped the poll last time round, he's become more vocal and more divisive in the last five years. It's reasonable to predict that the FG vote will soar from 10% to at least a strong 20%, with a lot of that support coming from the PD's. Assuming 5 points of McDowell's vote shifts that drops him to about 13% - which is dodgy ground for a seat.

I think the transfer pact may well be enough to win a seat for Labour.

But it's all very dodgy territory. Eoin Ryan (who got the 3rd seat) got more 1st preferences than Gormley (who clocked in first). It'll be interesting to see where FG/Lab votes transfer to. I don't want to call it. But FF's low transfers look dodgy, but SF might push them over. Hmm.

dont say sinn fein could realistically get a seat........

Time Magazine

No no, not at all. I meant their transfers might push FF over the line to victory.

ISAW

Angry Banana wrote:

It's reasonable to predict that the FG vote will soar from 10% to at least a strong 20%, with a lot of that support coming from the PD's. Assuming 5 points of McDowell's vote shifts that drops him to about 13% - which is dodgy ground for a seat.

Hmmm. How is it reasonable to assume FG will DOUBLE their vote when they ran Francis fitzgerald last time out and she lost her seat?

I think the transfer pact may well be enough to win a seat for Labour.

But given FF will win a seat and say the PD's win one (which is not certain) that leaves two seats for FG Lab GP and SF. Only two if them can win. You are claiming that FG/Lab will secure 40 per cent of the vote and transfer any surplus to the other. a big ask. This one will see maybe two get elected without a quota. Only FF are capable of attaining a quota. Lab or the Pd's didnt get it last time and FG lost the seat but only about half theeirt votes were FG votes. FF on the other hand transferred about two thirds of their votes to the other candidate the other half were personal. Even thn they were only 500 short of unseating Quinn. Doolin transferred half his votes to Gormley so unless Doolin is ahead of him at the start ( which means moer than DOUBLING his vote I don't recon he has a chance. 5,000 votes is the yardstick for a certain seat in this race. Only one candidate got that last time out.

But it's all very dodgy territory. Eoin Ryan (who got the 3rd seat) got more 1st preferences than Gormley (who clocked in first). It'll be interesting to see where FG/Lab votes transfer to. I don't want to call it. But FF's low transfers look dodgy, but SF might push them over. Hmm.

Look I just showed you
FF got in on FF transfers! Gormley got in on SF transfers. The fact that Ryan got in third shows how STRONG FF were since the other FF candidate (Andrews) was fifth. The problem for FF is how many of Ryans votes were Ryans and how many were FF. Assuming half and andrews running again with a ten per cnet drop in vote that would give Andrews 6,000 odd votes 1,000 more than he needs to be in comfort. I think FF- cert FG/PD - cert Lab/GP/ SF cert and whoever left from the second two left in to fight with FF for the last one with FF being the weakest contender followed by SF. That means one of FG/Lab/Pd/GP will pick up the last one

Victor

Its an open race, the PDs are going to loose votes, FG & SF gain. FF are running on a new ticket.

Cronus333

much better. Ill be happy with:
PD
FG
Green
and Labour, I suppose.

cousin_borat

I could see Gillen running alongside Creighton and getting 2nd FG seat.

Snickers Man

There is no way on God's green earth that Sinn Fein are going to win a seat in Dublin South East.

I reckon:
1 FG deffo
1 Green deffo
1 PD (almost sure)
1 to fight out between Labour and FF

Time Magazine

ISAW wrote:

Hmmm. How is it reasonable to assume FG will DOUBLE their vote when they ran Francis fitzgerald last time out and she lost her seat?

Quite reasonable. The last general election was a total disaster for FG - particularly in Dubiln. It was the worst result ever, and maybe I'm biased, but I don't use that as a great marker.

If you take the locals (in which bright young Lucie ran), FG roared home in DSE:

Pembroke (Creighton's ward): 29.67%, highest party vote.
Rathmines: 21.46%
South East: 9.42%

Yep South East is a crap result, but certainly from the above a suggestion of a 20% polling is reasonable, given that FG have performed better/gotten better publicity in the last couple of years than in the last eight combined.

It depends on the effect of the SSIA's etc., but all other things equal, 20% is a very reasonable estimate.

Plus she's hot.

strassenwolf

FF selected Chris Andrews last week (or so) to run in DSE, after some very heated disagreements before the selection convention (and possibly at it as well, I don't know). It is possible that they will add a second candidate to the ticket. I would be surprised if FF lose the seat, but Eoin Ryan is a very popular and hard-working guy. Considering that Chris Andrews lost his council seat last year, he doesn't have the same popularity and it's not going to be easy for him to get the seat.

RuggieBear

Gormley is my number one and then Creighton...and maybe Quinn but i'll not let my vote go to any of the other shower

Strange, i was actually called by a polling company last night about my top two preferences if there was an election tomorrow...

Snickers Man

Angry Banana wrote:

Plus she's hot.

Speaking of hot chick politicians did anyone see the Mayor of Kerry, the daughter of one Martin Ferris on the LAte Late on Friday.

She was wearing a slashed skirt so short that it enabled her to give the most revealing leg-cross since Basic Instinct.

Mind you I wouldn't vote for the slapper in a fit.

Fine Gaeler

Lucinda has built up a strong profile both in local and national media so describing her as unknown is quite incorrect.

Also it's Fine Gael not Fianna Gael!!:D

I think Lucinda will win a seat there and wil tip for a bright future in Irish politics where a cabinet seat will beckon for her in the future

Fine Gaeler

Speaking of hot chick politicians did anyone see the Mayor of Kerry, the daughter of one Martin Ferris on the LAte Late on Friday.

OTT, far too much flesh left nothing to the imagination.That will help the shinners in their bid for middle class respectability...........:rolleyes:

The_Minister

Fine Gaeler wrote:

OTT, far too much flesh left nothing to the imagination.That will help the shinners in their bid for middle class respectability...........:rolleyes:

Wanna know how she can get my vote?:D

Snickers Man

Fine Gaeler wrote:

OTT, far too much flesh left nothing to the imagination.That will help the shinners in their bid for middle class respectability...........:rolleyes:

It propably will. With her highlighted hair and infeasibly short skirt she looked like one of those young 'uns going to the Wesley Disco.

Until she opened her mouth.

sceptre

Fun and all as it is when every second thread diverts into a discussion on Sinn Fein and in this case whether Teresa Ferris is going for the corner of society that tries to vote and masturbate at the same time, any chance this one could veer back from where it's going or stop entirely? Either would do. There's an existing thread over on After Hours if you want to discuss short skirts on politicians on the telly.

cousin_borat

sceptre wrote:

any chance this one could veer back from where it's going or stop entirely?QUOTE]
enough already, no mé féin talk here! I will watch the clip of her when it's posted on the Late Late show archives out of curiosity

ISAW

sceptre wrote:

... Teresa Ferris i... any chance this one could veer back from where it's going or stop entirely?...

Finbar saunders strikes again! Finnar finnar

As Angry banana says it is reasonable to assume FG will DOUBLE their vote. I really dont think it is! It is reasonable to assume that FG will get a seat but not that they will get a quota on the first count. ) Only FF was capable of that last time out and only then if they ran ONE candidate. They ran two and got 5318 and 3499 for a quota of 6487. Gormley got 5264 FG (3337 and 1837). Mind you that is 5000 votes . I take it back it IS reasonable for FG to up that to 6500 and secure a certain seat.

So assuming FG gets the sdeat then Gormley Quinn or Mc Dowell will loste their seat. I think quinn will probably lose it but Mc dowell could. so over all it is either at best a gain of one seat for the opposition or just a seat trade from Lab to FG. For FF to lose the seat they would have to drop from 8800 to about 4000 votes. I just cant see that happening.

Snickers Man

ISAW wrote:

For FF to lose the seat they would have to drop from 8800 to about 4000 votes. I just cant see that happening.

Yes but you're comparing Eoghan Ryan who is a respectable decent sort, the acceptable face of Fianna Fail effectively who gets a wide spectrum of support to a blow-in who is the third-generation of a Fianna Fail dynasty, none of whom ever covered themselves in glory.

I could see it happening quite easily.

FX Meister

FG have registered people who don't live in that particular constituency and that's a fact. But I'm sure most of the parties do that. Sure Sinn Fein still send people in to vote pretending to be someone else. Pascal Donohue, running in the last local elections registered himself twice. As for Lucinda Creighton I don't have much time for her at all. Comes across as arrogant and sly. I read about her recently that she says dating party colleagues a definite no no. That's obviously a new rule in her book as I saw her kissing one of the FG HQ staff in Renards a year or so ago, one in his 40 somethings.

ISAW

Snickers Man wrote:

Yes but you're comparing Eoghan Ryan who is a respectable decent sort, the acceptable face of Fianna Fail effectively who gets a wide spectrum of support to a blow-in who is the third-generation of a Fianna Fail dynasty, none of whom ever covered themselves in glory.

I could see it happening quite easily.

AFAIK Chris Andrews in on dublin city council since the election before last (which is one term longer than Lucinda Creighton and she hasnt even finished her term but I would not call her a "blow in")

Eoin Ryan got about 5300 votes last time. I guess about half were FF. Chris andrews about 3500. The quota was 6500. Now Ryan may well canvass for Andrews but assuming half the votes are party and assuming FF ran A N Other Blow in who nobody had ever heard of they would probably get 2650 + 1750 = 4400 votes. Thats close to getting a seat running a nonentity in the weakest constituency in the counrty for FF.

Now Chris Andrews already had a base of 3500 last time. If he got even half of Ryans votes he would move that up to 6100 and toip the poll. the question is however who else will FF run? If they run a donkey then Andrews has a certain seat. If they run a strong candidate then FF will get even more votes and one of the two will take the seat. It is almost impossible for FF to take two seats. They would have to double their vote since last time. But FF losing the single seat is almost as unlikely.

billy the squid

constitutionus wrote:

he said dublin south inner city didnt he i think thats marino and ringsend (though open to correction,my inner city geography's crap )

Always thought marino was dublin north Central, bertie territory. It s up near drumcondra way is it not? D9 D3 area.

Nuttzz

Marino is Dublin NC, which is not bertie territory, but Calley & Haughey's. Bertie is next door in dublin central

ISAW

Angry Banana wrote:

Quite reasonable. The last general election was a total disaster for FG - particularly in Dubiln. It was the worst result ever, and maybe I'm biased, but I don't use that as a great marker.

If you take the locals (in which bright young Lucie ran), FG roared home in DSE:
Pembroke (Creighton's ward): 29.67%, highest party vote.
Rathmines: 21.46%
South East: 9.42%

Yep South East is a crap result, but certainly from the above a suggestion of a 20% polling is reasonable, given that FG have performed better/gotten better publicity in the last couple of years than in the last eight combined.

Cousin Borat thinks FG can win TWO seats in DSE! You seem to think FF can lose their one seat!

Looking at the above wards and you comment that "FG romped home" and considering that FF had the worst results in years we get:
Pembroke (Creighton's ward): 29.67%, (highest party vote).2800 FF got 19.55 % 1850 votes
Rathmines: 21.46% (2350 votes) FF got 20.78%(2300 votes)
South East: 9.42% (750 votes) FF got 20.98 (1700 votes)

Thats 5900 FG and 5850 FF. Literally the same.

It is complete and utter nonsence to suggest based on this that FG will win a seat from FF in the general election. and if you maintain that FG can win a seat then FF must retain their seat! The only possible losers will therefore be Lab PD or GP.