Hypothetical Hand

Hectorjelly

This hand didnt actually occur as Im about to describe, but I think this is more interesting. Im more interested in the decisions my opponents faced than I did.

$2 $4 6 Handed. You have $400. Villain (me) has over $600. Now he would view me as very tricky, very aggressive and very lucky, however I dont think he has ever won a big pot from me, or seen me do anything really stupid. We havent had any big hands in the blinds.

Folded to HJ who completes on the sb. Hero has QJ and checks.

The flop is 3 8 Q rainbow. HJ bets 10 Hero calls.

Turn is a 4 completing the rainbow. HJ bets 40 Hero calls.

River is a Q. HJ goes all in, its about $360 to call, pot was $110

Call or fold?

careca

I know you like to bet your sets on the flop as its better disguised this way (most people will check and raise on a later street), but I can't see you doing it this time with just the blinds involved.

Therefore the only hands to be afraid of are AQ, KQ or two pair on flop with the Q (Q8, Q4) which makes a full house on river.

Again I don't think you would bet the two pair on the flop as you will want some action so I am ruling them out.

AQ or KQ are very possible and you might not have raised, in order to disguise your hand and win a big pot.

The overbet would frighten me, but I would probably still call here.

AmarilloFats

I would never consider calling this.Just like your AT(no pair) hand.
I would play 44, 88, Q8 AQ just like this..The over bet will get called nearly as often as a pot sized bet..
Poor hero..
No way should hero let you stack him with this hand...
And He should raise you PF..

fuzzbox

Cant call that. Need to fold.

However, many heros will look you up here.

djkeogh

If i'm looking at that hand against that bet you put in I have to figure you for the house. Be very hard to fold it but sometimes you gotta accept when your beat. Fold. QQ444

Ste05

Well I think I would have made it 30 on the flop.

But in the hand as it played out It's fairly obvious that HJ knows that the villian has a Q. Now is he making this bet because he knows the villian will call with it or knowing he will fold with it. I'd need to know what sort of table image the villian has here before making a decision. But I'm fairly sure this will blow the whole question.

Very difficult decision indeed and great question.

NickyOD

I call that in a heartbeat.

AmarilloFats

NickyOD wrote:

I call that in a heartbeat.

Reasoning?What range or hands do you put HJ on?

NickyOD

AmarilloFats wrote:

Reasoning?What range or hands do you put HJ on?

No idea but nothing better than trips

fixer

wide range of hands could call the flop bet. a much smaller range calls that turn bet, but without raising, it's either trapping with a monster or it's a queen with weak kicker. For the SB to make this bet, we assume he can beat 3 queens. Gotta fold.

marius

Im calling too. It is pretty obvious you have me on a queen.....if you had the full house I dont think you go all in here. You know i've just hit trips so, if you had a full house a nice small bet here is sure to get the required re-raise. I think the all in is trying to push me off the trips.

fuzzbox

marius wrote:

Im calling too. It is pretty obvious you have me on a queen.....if you had the full house I dont think you go all in here. You know i've just hit trips so, if you had a full house a nice small bet here is sure to get the required re-raise. I think the all in is trying to push me off the trips.

Its precisely this reason why he should push with 88 and 44, and AQ (and probably KQ).

fixer

marius wrote:

I think the all in is trying to push me off the trips.

that's exactly what he's counting on...

fuzzbox

This is for those who advocate a call here.

If you would call here, then what would you do if the action was the same preflop, flop and turn ... but the river paired the 4, and HJ moved in for 360 into a 111 pot?

marius

fuzzbox wrote:

Its precisely this reason why he should push with 88 and 44, and AQ (and probably KQ).

But it is also precisely the reason he should push if he does not - if you get me.

If he has me beat - there is no need to push, he is pretty sure he is going to get my stack anyway cos i've hit trips - I think the only reason for him to push here is because he is beat...

fuzzbox

marius wrote:

But it is also precisely the reason he should push if he does not - if you get me.

If he has me beat - there is no need to push, he is pretty sure he is going to get my stack anyway cos i've hit trips - I think the only reason for him to push here is because he is beat...

He should not be able to get your stack here everytime you make trips on the end.

If he bets, you should NOT raise.

fuzzbox

marius wrote:

But it is also precisely the reason he should push if he does not - if you get me.

If he has me beat - there is no need to push, he is pretty sure he is going to get my stack anyway cos i've hit trips - I think the only reason for him to push here is because he is beat...

Also, pushing has more value if he suspects you have a Q and will call.

Hectorjelly

Remember this is me pushing, not some random idiot. There is almost no chance im bluffing here. The hero most likely has a queen and im not going to try push him off trips. Also there are very few hands that I would value bet that QJ beats. QT maybe but I doubt Id push with it. I had 44.

The actual hand played out differently, as the turn was a jack giving the hero a better full house. At 50 1/2 Ill push any house on the river all day but I was interested in if this is going to be a losing play at 24 against non terrible opposition, with the worst full house possible.

fuzzbox

Hectorjelly wrote:

Remember this is me pushing, not some random idiot. There is almost no chance im bluffing here. The hero most likely has a queen and im not going to try push him off trips. Also there are very few hands that I would value bet that QJ beats. QT maybe but I doubt Id push with it. I had 44.

The actual hand played out differently, as the turn was a jack giving the hero a better full house. At 50 1/2 Ill push any house on the river all day but I was interested in if this is going to be a losing play at 24 against non terrible opposition, with the worst full house possible.

Did you have 33 and the turn was a J?

Hectorjelly

fuzzbox wrote:

Did you have 33 and the turn was a J?

Sorry yeah I had 33, flopped set. Turn was a jack giving the other guy 2 pair.

AmarilloFats

NickyOD wrote:

No idea but nothing better than trips

Hi Nicky,
before u call it's usually a good idea to put the ohter guy on a hand u can beat.

AmarilloFats

Hectorjelly wrote:

I was interested in if this is going to be a losing play at 24 against non terrible opposition, with the worst full house possible.

as fuzzbox said ..I don't an average player will stack off this easy..

Norwich Fan Rob

i believe at 1/2 a large number of players call here with Qx.
i believe the push is the correct play.
easy fold imo for an good experienced player though.

this would be a very poor board to try and take on a river bluff, unless u were certain your opponent was extremely tight and u an extremely rock like table image.

With QJ on this board, u are either beat, or HJ is on a complete bluff.
There is no way he would push with a lower queen or AA, KK, 2 pair.

With the strenght shown calling 10, then 40 on the turn, and the 2nd queen on board, a complete bluff at this is - ev in my opinion, therefore u are beat.
(particularly as there are no draws out there that coulda missed)

RoundTower

AmarilloFats wrote:

as fuzzbox said ..I don't an average player will stack off this easy..

I call here way too much, but I am a losing player in this game.

NickyOD

AmarilloFats wrote:

Hi Nicky,
before u call it's usually a good idea to put the ohter guy on a hand u can beat.

Against me HJ would have had 56 sooooted.