decision time.....

jimbling

I'm posting this because i suffer similar situations all the time... and am still unsure what the best tactic is.


final table of the 4KGtd.
first place: 1,700
7th place: 170

7 players. I just lost a pot and am down to 4th spot on 75k. biggest stack is 136k. A few small stacks of about 15 / 20k.

blinds are 4k/8k.


I'm dealt 10 10 in middle position. UTG (who just covers me) raises to 40K. Now lets take it that I have a decent enough read on this guy, and I figure by far the most likely hand is AK/AQ, with a slim possibility of a small pair, and a much slimer possibilty of a high pair.

its folded around to me.

there are two options...... which one would you go for and why?

cardshark202

Push, you've got less than 10 BBs, you've a chance to either increase your stack by over 50% (if he folds) or 100% (if he calls). If you think its most likely a race you have to go for it.

Sangre

Without a doubt push. Need to double up now while it can make a difference. If he folds up go up 50%. Happy days

Culchie

This is where instinct and balls come into play, something that's hard to teach.

Trust your read, have faith and stick em' in if you want to win this tournament.

jimbling

Do you really think its it as obvious as all that?

I presume this is most peoples opinion, and to be fair was probably mine also - but I am rethinking that now.


I mean, I think there is very little chance that someone would fold after raising half there stack from utg.. so I don't think you should include that as an option.

so its either double through and move into a very slight chip lead, with 6 players left..... or else lose and be out in 7th.

Also, this is the final table of a tourney, so 10BB is not all that small anymore.... I dont think you can use those rules as stringently in these positions.
Sometimes the chip leader has less than 10BB... would you be delighted to get your 10 10 into bed with AK (say 2nd cl) when you're the CL?


With the pay structures at these tourneys it is deffinately the win your after.... but should you risk your entire stack on a known coin toss?

if you win you increase your chances - NOT ensure them. If you lose you have 0 chance. I would have thought this a -EV move.

padser

I have a question. You say is a slim chance of a pair, and an even slimmer chance of a higher pair. Is this because he would play AA KK QQ JJ differently?

jimbling

it was just what he tended to do. He generally min-raised with top pairs, and had seen him make this middle style bet twice with AK... ie not all in... but quite enough to think someone pot committed (just over half his stack).... if its not a complete bluff.

But thats not really the point..... and to be honest, I am surprised there is not more interest in the race or not to race issue... far too many people are just too happy to race, even with only the slightest advantage.. if none at all. A lot of these situations are (in my opinion) -EV.