Calling an under pressure all in?

Skyclad

Had a situation a while ago which I've been mulling over, and am still searching for an answer.

5 players left, top 4 make money. Blinds are 1k/2k. I am currently 4th in chips with 7,200, with the small stack sitting at 4,100. The other players all have significant stacks (30k+).

The hands are folded around to the Button, who is the small stack and goes all in. He has been reasonably tight, but now desperate. I put him on any 2 cards 9 or higher, any PP or any suited ace.

The small blind (large stack) raises me all in if i wish to call. He plays a looser game, but calling the all in meant he was probably playing a pair, any Ace or 2 cards at 10+.

In hand I have K9s. Normally I would be quite happy to fold given the action ahead of me, but a number of factors weighed to the contrary:
1. I will only have 5k chips left, with blinds at 2k and facing a SB next hand.
2. Winning the hand would near triple me up, bringing me to 18k+ chips and actually put me back in contention rather than buzzing around until someone got the flyswatter out.
3. If I lose the hand but the small blind also loses, I still finish in the money.
4. If the small stack does manage to double up, I become the player with the small stack. A 3 on 1 significantly reduces his chance of surviving over a 2 on 1.


Any thoughts?

ntlbell

Skyclad wrote:

Had a situation a while ago which I've been mulling over, and am still searching for an answer.

5 players left, top 4 make money. Blinds are 1k/2k. I am currently 4th in chips with 7,200, with the small stack sitting at 4,100. The other players all have significant stacks (30k+).

The hands are folded around to the Button, who is the small stack and goes all in. He has been reasonably tight, but now desperate. I put him on any 2 cards 9 or higher, any PP or any suited ace.

The small blind (large stack) raises me all in if i wish to call. He plays a looser game, but calling the all in meant he was probably playing a pair, any Ace or 2 cards at 10+.

In hand I have K9s. Normally I would be quite happy to fold given the action ahead of me, but a number of factors weighed to the contrary:
1. I will only have 5k chips left, with blinds at 2k and facing a SB next hand.
2. Winning the hand would near triple me up, bringing me to 18k+ chips and actually put me back in contention rather than buzzing around until someone got the flyswatter out.
3. If I lose the hand but the small blind also loses, I still finish in the money.
4. If the small stack does manage to double up, I become the player with the small stack. A 3 on 1 significantly reduces his chance of surviving over a 2 on 1.


Any thoughts?

unless 4th was for a nice few quid I'm in here like a shot, 18k is enough to keep pushing when down to three to try and go on and win it, and with two other hands against the short stack you've more chance of killing him off and getting itm anyway

bit of a no brainer

Skyclad

As the hand turned out, small stack had KQ and JT, which gives me a 21% chance of winning. Given I'm only winning 3.5 times the pot, that particular hand would not have been a (long term) profitable to play.

Calling with K9 in that situation means you are almost always facing an ace (and behind), or a higher king (also behind).

Culchie

(a) In your post, you said you were 'searching for an answer' ... yet you seem quite categoric you know the answer

(b) You didn't know your opponents had KQ and JT before hand so your justification is retrospective and results based.

(c) Just because you know you are behind is not a justification not to call.

You may have may the right decision, it would depend on prize money, was it a satelitte or a $1 STT, players etc.. etc... but I just wanted to point out some of the points you made have some flaws in them.

bmc

Skyclad wrote:

Given I'm only winning 3.5 times the pot, that particular hand would not have been a (long term) profitable to play.

Really?

What are you planning on doing with your remaining two and a half big blinds?

Skyclad

Culchie wrote:

(a) In your post, you said you were 'searching for an answer' ... yet you seem quite categoric you know the answer

If I knew the answer, I wouldnt need to answer the question. In any normal situation I'm never calling an all in / call from any position with K9. I'm not too scared of the initial all in, but the caller who was under no pressure indicates some strength, meaning im either dominated, facing an Ace with a kicker likely equal to or better than my 9, or facing a pair. On the other hand, there are some very strong arguments for calling - not least that I can be back in the game with a near triple up and I increase the chances of making it to the more significant prize money.

Culchie wrote:

(b) You didn't know your opponents had KQ and JT before hand so your justification is retrospective and results based.

Quite, and this is why I mentioned the range of hands in my initial post, and only the exact hands in my second post. When analysing the hand at the time, I considered my chances of winning to be in the 25-30% range given my estimates of their hands from the first post. This was an overestimate, but nonetheless, all decisions I made were based on the range of hands initially posted.

Culchie wrote:

(c) Just because you know you are behind is not a justification not to call.

True. But one should only call when there is a quantifiable (long term) profit from making the call. If I call, only the high end of my estimate (30%) is vaguely profitable in terms of chips. Anything less is not. If I take the low end of my estimate (25%), it is actually more profitable for me to take 2 50/50 hands and try to double up twice against 2 other 50/50 hands (20k as opposed to 18k).

So, on a purely % based decision, it is quite obvious that calling is not a profitable decision in terms of chips. This still doesnt answer the question though, do the tournament factors change the equation? How valuable is the opportunity to triple up in that situation at less than fantastic odds, combined with increasing the chance that the one other person you need to be rid of before the money goes out? Thats really what I'm trying to ask.

Culchie wrote:

You may have may the right decision, it would depend on prize money, was it a satelitte or a $1 STT, players etc.. etc... but I just wanted to point out some of the points you made have some flaws in them.

I called, noone hit anything, I went out but still finished in the money. None of the decisions I made or the logic pursued was made in hindsight.

Culchie

Hi,

Your first post seemed to be asking questions, your second one appeared to indicate you knew the answer.

That was the gist of my post.

bmc

Skyclad wrote:

do the tournament factors change the equation?

Of course they do!

And dramatically too. How are you planning on winning the tournament with 2.5 BBs?

There is a reverse argument though... It is currently five handed... If fourth place is important to you... maybe it's $10K and would get you a heart operation for example... then folding is correct. If you want to win, then I think that even had the cards been played face up, you should call.

Hitman Actual

Slightly off-topic to your original post, but how did you end up only having 3.5BBs in the first place. Fair enough, you might have taken a beat with a decent stack to be there, but if you're getting blinded away by being too passive, then that's a big problem.

Culchie

lenny_leonard wrote:

Slightly off-topic to your original post, but how did you end up only having 3.5BBs in the first place. Fair enough, you might have taken a beat with a decent stack to be there, but if you're getting blinded away by being too passive, then that's a big problem.

Very good question

ntlbell

I think the answers fairly obvious...















he plays like culchie :v:

Culchie

lol.

don't you forget it either

Gholimoli

to OP:
if you feel under attack by the replys,dont worry just go and do a search for my introduction post here and you will feel mcuh better after that.:D
back to the quetion in hand,i dont think this isuation calls more much discussion.if forth place money is of importance to you then fold it and hope for the other dude to go broke before you.
if not its your best chance of getting a decent size stack together and i would do it with a lot less than K9.

ntlbell

Gholimoli wrote:

to OP:
if you feel under attack by the replys,dont worry just go and do a search for my introduction post here and you will feel mcuh better after that.:D
back to the quetion in hand,i dont think this isuation calls more much discussion.if forth place money is of importance to you then fold it and hope for the other dude to go broke before you.
if not its your best chance of getting a decent size stack together and i would do it with a lot less than K9.

I don't think anyone's attacking him, culchie's made a valid point.

anyway a lot less than k9? of course, any two really.

any chance of the link to your first post?

i'm very bored...:D

Gholimoli

ntlbell wrote:

I don't think anyone's attacking him, culchie's made a valid point.

anyway a lot less than k9? of course, any two really.

any chance of the link to your first post?

i'm very bored...:D

http://82.195.136.250/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054864667
there also a link to the original post by Len in that.
alot of people who i know now and iddnt know then mad a laot of interesting comments.:D
but its cool.i was amazed by the support on sunday night .:D

Culchie

Gholimoli wrote:

http://82.195.136.250/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054864667
there also a link to the original post by Len in that.
alot of people who i know now and iddnt know then mad a laot of interesting comments.:D
but its cool.i was amazed by the support on sunday night .:D

We were after your money:D

Culchie

Actually that was fun reading that thread again.

Shortstack comes out of it particularily well. :v:

Gholimoli

Culchie wrote:

Actually that was fun reading that thread again.

Shortstack comes out of it particularily well. :v:

yeah Shortstack and NickyOD etc ...
you all a bunch of &*^%^$£% and a $£%^^^£ and if i ever see you i will sure that you get a %££^&*%$£:cool:

ntlbell

Gholimoli wrote:

yeah Shortstack and NickyOD etc ...
you all a bunch of &*^%^$£% and a $£%^^^£ and if i ever see you i will sure that you get a %££^&*%$£:cool:

haha oh that's who you are, lol I forgot all about that thread wow

so did u and len ever get it on?

Gholimoli

ntlbell wrote:

haha oh that's who you are, lol I forgot all about that thread wow

so did u and len ever get it on?

nah .ive said hello to him couple times on line but he has never answerd.
i dont think he likes me much.

ntlbell

Gholimoli wrote:

nah .ive said hello to him couple times on line but he has never answerd.
i dont think he likes me much.

It's strange seeing hector giving out about people playing muck

Skyclad

lenny_leonard wrote:

Slightly off-topic to your original post, but how did you end up only having 3.5BBs in the first place. Fair enough, you might have taken a beat with a decent stack to be there, but if you're getting blinded away by being too passive, then that's a big problem.

As Mr Rumsfeld might suggest, you play with the stack you have, not the stack you would like to have.

bmc wrote:

There is a reverse argument though... It is currently five handed... If fourth place is important to you... maybe it's $10K and would get you a heart operation for example... then folding is correct.

The money is irrelevant to me other than as a meter of long term success. The prize breakdown was roughly 2 buyins, 4 buyins, 6 buyins, 8 buyins for 4th/3rd/2nd/1st. I'm simply interested in the most profitable play in the situation.

bmc wrote:

If you want to win, then I think that even had the cards been played face up, you should call.

If I plan on taking 3-1 odds for a 2.5-1 return on investment, I'm not winning anything long term. As has been noted, taking 2 chances at 50/50 is a more profitable play then calling in this situation with regards to chips.

Just considering some more maths, with hindsight card knowledge:
43% of the time KQ wins, I go out winning 2 buyins.
32% of the time JT wins, I go out winning nothing.
21% of the time K9 wins, I'm still competing and significantly less short stacked.

Ignoring the remainder which produce ties etc, and estimating that on average I'll gain one extra place in the standings (3rd) if I call and win ( I would still have less than half the chips of next smallest runner), I win an average of 1.7 buyins by calling with this particular set of cards.

Not calling is more variable, but at a rough guess:
63% of the time KQ wins, I'm guaranteed 4th place at 2 buyins and while very short stacked, could theoretically improve.
63% * 2 buyins = 1.26 buyins.
35% of the time the JT wins, doubles up and I become the short stack.

Presuming the JT wins, and giving myself a 70% chance of going out next if it does results in:
30% of surviving another player * 2 buyins = .6 buyins,

for a total of 1.86 buyins.

So based on that analysis, not calling seems to be a more profitable ( in terms of buyins )

Alternative analysis?

bmc

Skyclad wrote:

Not calling is more variable, but at a rough guess:
63% of the time KQ wins, I'm guaranteed 4th place at 2 buyins and while very short stacked, could theoretically improve.

Here's the problem as I see it. How probable is this "theoretical improvement"?

On your next hand you are in for 1/2 a blind... will you push with 95o? Will you push with 34? If you won't, you are more likely than not going to be down to 2BBs... You then have 3 hands to chose from before you get committed on the BB... What hand are you going to make your stand with? How likely is that hand to come? Do you think anyone is going to fold to a bet of twice the BB?

As the others have pointed out... you shouldn't even have let yourself get this low on chips (unless of course you've just lost one big pot). Five BBs or less? Automatic push with any two cards. 45o, 72o, AA... anything. If you lose any more chips nobody will fold to your bets. If you get called, you may outdraw someone... 72o Vs AKo is roughly a 40-60 shot. Take it!

Hitman Actual

Skyclad wrote:

As Mr Rumsfeld might suggest, you play with the stack you have, not the stack you would like to have.

Apologies if my post was unclear. I was just making the point that you should never purposely allow yourself to get blinded away in a tournament. Once you hit 10BB's or so, you should in general be pushing with any hand that you consider playable.

Hectorjelly

I think its important to think about the next hand. If I think theres a good chance I can make an uncalled push I would probably fold. If not Id call. I would literally push without looking at my cards.