Tips on chasing the middle pin

corblimey

Last night, I had the opportunity to chase down 2 inside straight draws, and chickened out of both. On both occasions, the cards on the board gave me nothing except the straight draw (no flush, no pairs, etc), and I felt I was behind in both hands. Also, the betting into me didn't give me the value I felt I was getting to chase.

On one hand, I would've hit the straight on the river, I don't know about the other one.

I just need some tips on when to chase and when to cut. How much of your stack do you put down on chasing? If you missed completely on the turn and still figured you were behind, would you continue to bet on the river? Assume that you're being bet into by a larger stack.

sikes

well with only four cards to make your straight, you have a 16% chance.

i hate chasing gutshot straight draws but i will do it when i am getting 6 to 1 on my money or when the implied odds are good.

but when i am getting 6 to 1, usually there are 3 or more in the pot, so i would also need the nut straight to go for it.

this is the way i see it, tho i am no expert and will be interested to see how everyone else plays it,

DeVore

I almost never chase them. You have 4 outs (presuming no over cards to the board and they may not be outs either).

With two cards to ome you have 4/47 chance of hitting it on the turn and 4/46 on the river. thats almost 8% each time. 16% over all. Or about 1/6 in total.

Now that doesnt seem so bad for a shot to make a strong hand but you will probably have to call a bet on the turn if you miss so you have to factor that in.

If the pot is very large and the bet is about 8% of the pot I'll call on each street. 8% is a ridiculous under bet of the pot and happens rarely.

Another thing to think of is implied odds. If the guy has a big stack and might well give you it all on the river, then the reasons to call have improved. But in general, don't chase these. And don't look at the river and say "awww I'd have made my inside straight! Sh*t!!" Cos I have an uncontrolable desire to smack those people.
You made the right decisions, what happens after that is simply a curiousity of variance in probability.

DeV.
ps: As Sike's says, if there are a few people in the pot and I've the nut straight draw with no flush draw on board too (because that kills one of your middle pins) then I'll be more tempted. These situations are manufactured here in our nice wee poker pressurecooker of a forum. In the wild they are few and far between. Do you know that that guy behind you isnt going to make a move on this juicy pot thats being utterly underbet? Will you get the callers to make it worth the call?

Scotty #

I never chase these, they just cost too much in the long run. Half the time when you do catch on the turn the river screws you or you end up spliting the pot anyway.

Hectorjelly

Raise with them

Ste05

Hectorjelly wrote:

Raise with them

Classic Brunson...

ianmc38

I take a chane occasionally in a cash game, as when you hit a gutshot, it can be very profitable. Would rarely to never do it in a STT or MTT

Gholimoli

never chase them in the hope of just getting it.
i will either raise,or if i feel i cant tale the pot away from my opponent i would go for a raise on the turn .
but more than anything i just fold them

DeVore

Hectorjelly wrote:

Raise with them

lol. You can do this with any hand in the right position and the right table, don't mind that haggard aul troll.

DeV

corblimey

Thanks for the advice, folks. I assume the same applies when you're chasing any 1 card to a straight, say the 10 for a broadway, or the 5 for a wheel.

A hand from a few weeks back when I got AKs and the same suit (think it was spades) Q and J came down in the flop. The betting was absolutely horrendous, though, so I mucked it, since I had nothing really.

DeVore

if the betting is horrendous then yes, dump it.
But remember a lot of poor players will be happy to bet with just top pair. You may find that your outs are "any ace, any king, any 10" which comes to 10 outs. Beware though, as its still a weak draw (if T9 is there and a king comes... ugh). I'd drop this to anything other then an uncalled, weak bet.

DeV.

RoundTower

DeVore wrote:

if the betting is horrendous then yes, dump it.
But remember a lot of poor players will be happy to bet with just top pair. You may find that your outs are "any ace, any king, any 10" which comes to 10 outs. Beware though, as its still a weak draw (if T9 is there and a king comes... ugh). I'd drop this to anything other then an uncalled, weak bet.

DeV.

Try only to play these hands in position. If there are two or more callers to the bet you are probably getting good value to call as well.