The Form Book

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http://www.attheraces.com/WatchVideo.asp?va=PUN_2005_04_28_05_1620

When I was picking my form choices for last saturday's racing I came across the above beauty. Probably one of the most famous case in the last couple of years of the form book shooting into orbit. Looking at the defeated horses that day and what the winner went on to achieve...well it just makes you wonder I guess.

There has been many discussions on these forums about the factors we take into consideration when we pick our horses.

Recent form of the horse, Course and Distance Form, Ability to handle the surface, handicap rating/weight. We would agree that these factors would fill the first bracket correct?

Does the horse prefer to go left/right handed? Is the trainer in form? Jockey selection significant?

Has the horse travelled a long distance to get to the race? Is is financially sound to run the horse (i.e a 500 mile round trip that the winnings will just about cover). Is there money for the horse?

There are literally dozens of things to take into account. This for me is the major reason why it makes sense to have only one or two bets in a day or even week depending on the amount of time you have to choose your selections. This is another reason why it pays to have a notebook of the horses you have previously studied or who have crossed your radar. (IloveIreland has been doing well lately with this. www.irish-racing.com has a decent race tracker that will let you know a day or two in advance when your horse is due to run)

What is the point of this I hear you ask? Well what of the anomalies? The Carly's Quests, the Ballygally Bays...are there clues to spot these, something we could have seen or are they just that, anomalies, freak occurances that have to put down to experience. That day Ferdy Murphy sent his horse over cause he thought she had a place chance at least, he's on record as saying this...I don't know for the life of me why though...

Any opinions on this, slightly disorientated rambling?

iloveireland

i 100 per cent agree with only betting on horses that you have noted or studied days or weeks before.that could be only one or two bets a week.

i have gone down to the bookies alot in the last 2 weeks because i am on hollidays
and i would probably say i am only about even but if i only bet on the horses that i had noted weeks before then i would be definatly up a couple of hundred.

masterK

It's funny that you picked that race as an example as I had quite a large win on Carly's Quest at 25/1 that day. So I totally disagree with you on the form being shot into orbit, if you have a look at the form of the horses in it, Carly's quest was the only one with any decent form over 3 miles, the rest of the horses had all of their best form over shorter distances, that's why I backed it. What stuck in my mind at the time was a race he ran in at Haydock where he finished like a train over 3 miles on terrible ground, so I knew he had the stamina and finishing speed, which is something I couldn't have said about anything else in the field. As for an explanation for his form since then, well I do think he is an average horse who won a very poor race for a grade 1.

I think I may have posted here about it before the race.

Morgans

Agree with MAsterK. Didnt back it Carly's Quest that day but did so when she won earlier than year at Chepstow. I had one of my biggest bets ever in that Punchestown race. On Our Ben each way, because I thought the front couple in the market were very beatable, Solerina and Emotional Moment (both at the end of very long seasons - a factor that always has to be remembered at Punchestown), and cant trust Rosaker, and that at worst Our Ben could run below form and still get placed. It was at a morning price of 8/1. He was backed down to 3/1 or 7/2. Thought that I had a great bet and then he goes and blunders all chance away at one hurdle.

Why Carly's Quest hasnt done anything since is a) she's a mare that when they turn quickly, catch thwm while they are in form, when they are out of form, leave them alone. Fiddling the Facts was another that this happened to. The arse simply fell out of her form, and never recovered b) she has a grade 1 penalty to carry in any other graded race c) she had made sure that in any handicaps she runs in by beating Solerina and winning a grade 1 that she is going to be giving lumps of weight away. d) she is now 12

It wouldnt surprise me if F Murphy has given her an easy year in an attempt t get her mark down a stone and try again for something next year. Then again she has probably gone.

The formbook is by a long long way the best tool that the punter has, those that dont agree simply arent studying it hard enough.

fade2black

The reason why I mention Carlys Quest was because the horse was a favourite of mine for a long time and when I was looking at Saturday's racing I was very tempted to flag him up as an each way chance...I then did a search for his golden moment. He was certainly helped by the way Solerina shot out in front but in the company he was in, regardless of his 3m form in lower grades I couldn't see how he could be backed with any degree of confidence.

Morgans

I dont think there are many 25/1 shots that can be backed with much confidence. You take a chance that things fall her way in the race itself. Sometimes it comes off, most days it doesnt, it came off for her at Punchestown.

masterK

Slightly deviating off topic but after some analysis of my betting results I find 3 miles hurdle races on softish ground are excellent betting mediums. You can usually eliminate around 2/3 of the field straight off due to stamina concerns, you leave yourself with those proven over the distance and those that look like a step up in trip may suit. I find it a lot better than say a 2 mile hurdle where pretty much everything will stay the trip.

To support this fact have a look at the distances between the finishers in these type of races and compare them to a 3 mile chase. There is usually pretty massive distances between the finishers, especially further down the field which suggests quite a large number of them are beaten by a lack of stamina regardless of their class.