Just for a little discussion

Morgans

This isnt finished or edited yet, not by a long chalk. But its what has been done so far. Definitely requires editing and a touch of finesse to be added, so go easy on the criticisms

Now that the Gold Cup picture has been thrown into disarray with the news that Kicking King will spend the rest of the season recuperating from a tendon injury, it is the unlikely name of Beef or Salmon that has been promoted to the head of the ante post market. The talented 10yo, whose career has been punctuated with several lack lustre performances since falling as a novice in the 2003 Gold Cup, was confidently written off by most punters after his latest failure to cope with the undulations last March. Even his normally bullish trainer admitted that Cheltenham may not allow the horse to show his how horse in his best light. After his impressive win against lesser rivals (War of Attrition and Forget The Past) in Leopardstown’s Lexus Chase at Christmas, Michael Hourigan was quoted as saying when pressed on the Cajetano chestnut’s Gold Cup chances “its not always the best horse in the race that wins the Gold Cup.” This was said when the reigning champion was on the scene, and although Geraghty could have ridden Kicking King more forcefully at Down Royal last season, he was beaten pointless when the gun was put to his head up the straight. Beef or Salmon supporters can still claim that when things fall right for their horse, there is nothing on the British Isles that can top him. Now that the more likely Cheltenham contenders have fallen by the wayside or disappointed throughout the Autumn, it is almost by default that he heads the market at a current price of almost 7/1.

Excuses have to be made for the horse. Carberry after his latest Leopardstown victory, the horse’s 7th Grade 1, stated that he knows if the horse is on a going day by the time they jump the first, and on many occasions, most notably at Cheltenham last year, the writing was on the wall from very early on. He trailed throughout then, and pulled up without passing the Scudamore rags that made up the numbers. He was beaten so far, that the course could hardly be blamed, in fact it was rumoured that the horse scoped dirty in the week prior to the race. Some would say that he only wins off slow paces, but whatever was the reason, he simply didn’t turn up last year. 12 months previous, on softer ground, he came from a different county to finish 1 1/2l behind Best Mate, staying on better than anything in the final half mile, after another interrupted preparation.

Its not as if his disappointments are restricted to Cheltenham. So far this autumn, his efforts have been more promising. His season began with an unpromising effort on the flat at the Curragh, before a bomb scare called off his Down Royal clash with War of Attrition. After he was withdrwn in bizarre circumstance from the November handicap the following day, it appeared to be an afterthought from connections to take on Kicking King in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Although he was never as fluent as the winner Kingscliff or the other protagonists, he jumped well enough to not throw away his chances early. It should be remembered that two fences were bypassed down the back straight allowed Carberry to use the horse’s useful speed to get in contact with the leaders on the home turn. He moved with menace up the inside, but reportedly blew up on the run to the last, before plugging to take a very respectable second to Robert Alner’s Kingscliff. Kicking King trailed in an injured third.

There were several talking points following that race, Kinscliff’s emergence as a real force, Kicking King’s disappointing effort, Ollie Magern’s bubble bursting, and in the midst of this, little was said about the sterling effort from Beef or Salmon. With no-one from the top rung willing to come to Leopardstown at Christmas, he won his third Lexus Chase without much trouble. Jumping well throughout, he moved up to the leaders with a particularly fine leap at the third last, and quickly settled the issue up the straight. It was interesting to find out that he no longer gets physiotherapy for his misaligned back, the root cause behind his erratic jumping throughout the past two seasons. Connections are confident that he physically as good as he can be, and he is likely to be faced with a small field, slow pace, and soft ground that has suited him so well before. Unlikely to be faced with any first grade opposition, he should copperfasten his position in the market at Leopardstown in February before heading to his fourth consecutive festival.

So, will he succeed where he failed three times festival. As mentioned before, there is enough evidence on the track to suggest that he is the most talented staying chaser in training, not to mention of those left in the race, but is he good enough to overcome his traditional frailties. His jumping has been better this year, but it still could not be described as good or reliable. It is this key area that could be exposed over the undulations which may place more pressure on his limbs, and while there was value in the horse at the 16s that was available, should he decide to put his best foot forward, at 8/1 he makes limited appeal. I would love to see the horse triumph, as he has been a favourite point of many punter’s ire over the past couple of years, and with another Grade 1 likely to be in the bag by the time he should shorten further in the betting before March. Should he impress further at Leopardstown, confidence would increase, but whatever the outcome there, he has failed so often before when expected, that it is impossible to know what to expect from the horse at Cheltenham. With better jumpers in the field, he faces an uphill struggle, and while he goes on a good surface, slower conditions would help him negotiate the obstacles without losing too much ground against his rivals. Should he be in a striking position on the run down the hill, there are few stayers in training with his turn of foot and overall speed. Whether he can get into that position is the big question. With all the other dangers of punting ante post in mind, there are enough reasons to wait until the day and check out the stable vibe’s pre race before punting on the horse. There will be plenty of punters willing to oppose the horse on the big day, and even with an exemplary preparation, he shouldn’t start shorter than 4/1. I’ll pass for now.

Kingscliff comes next in the bookies lists. Robert Alner’s former hunter chaser has had an interrupted carreer to date, missing the last two festivals when fancied for the Gold Cup before, and after his latest poor run in the King George relatively unexplained, punters must tread with caution when viewing this horse as an ante post proposition. It has been said that the trainer doesn’t know if he is going to find a sound or a lame horse in his stable on any given day. His first effort in graded chases came when chasing home Kicking King in last year’s King George, but failed when next seeing the racecourse when tailing off behind the same horse in the Punchestown festival. United with new jockey, the conditional Robert Walford, he failed to benefit from the 5lbs he received from Ollie Magern in the Charlie Hall Chase. There was something unfulfilled about the 9yo’s career up to that stage but he gave the biggest indicator that he belonged in the highest grade when he held off both Beef or Salmon and Kicking King in Haydock’s Betfair Chase. Jumping well, he turned into the straight in the lead and it was his solid jumping that helped him maintain his lead over the final three fences.

He ran as if something was amiss in Sandown’s King George, and while a mistake at the fence in front of the stands accelerated his demise, he never appeared to be travelling within himself, and always looked ill at ease under substitute jockey Tony Dobbin. While the connections have forwarded the one mistake as the reason for the poor effort, it increases suspicions that the horse is not always the easiest to catch right and it is hard to know what kind of performance to expect come March. Should the horse that won powerfully at Haydock turn up on the day, he will be a threat to all, and in the hands of a trainer who has done brilliantly with the horses he has run in the Gold Cup, he deserves respect. But I cant shake the impression that that he is a fragile animal and he has disappointed unaccountably on one too many occasions to be considered good ante-post punting material. He has too many negatives against his name at this stage of proceedings.

Morgans

Monkerhostin has emerged from the shadows of 2m4f handicaps to become a major player in the Gold Cup scene. After rallying from a tailed off position to finish fourth in the Tingle Creek, he benefited from the step up to 3m in the King George, travelling best behind Impek and Kicking King into the straight, before a sticky leap at the last gave the champion the initiative. His potent turn of foot almost brought him victory under a determined Tom Scudamore but Philip Hobbs’s 9yo failed by a neck to reel in Kicking King up the hill. After improving over hurdles for the Minehead trainer, culminating with a win in the Coral Cup at the 2004 festival, he reverted back to fences in an attempt to take advantage of a lenient handicap mark. Although he won the 2004 Bonusprint Gold Cup, he never looked to be as comfortable over the larger obstacles, with sloppy jumping early in the races hurting his chances late on. His clear cut win on the 2m Haldon Gold Cup muddied the waters for the versatile animal, as the champion chase rather than the Gold Cup appeared to be a more viable option for the Shining Steel gelding.

After a busy autumn schedule where he stayed on better than anything when defeated in both the Paddy Power and the Tingle Creek, he was given a speculative entry in the King George, and started at 25/1. It should be remembered that one of his most impressive performances over hurdles was when stepped up in trip in the 3m Rendelsham. There, he travelled easily off the pace, before dismissing a decent field with authority by unleashing a marked turn of foot. If that ability is retained over fences, that finishing speed is a threat to all. He proved in the King George that he can travel with the best and over the extended 3m trip, less pressure was placed on his fencing. If he puts in a similar round of jumping in the Gold Cup itself, he has serious claims to gatecrashing the festival party. Unexposed as a staying chaser, in a year where the main protagonists have plenty of questions to answer, he has a more solid profile than the others at the head of the market. We will probably see Monkerhostin next in the Aon Chase at Newbury, a race won last year by the stable’s ill-fated chaser Farmer Jack. He will be one of the favourites to win that race, and should he win, he might well start favourite for the Gold Cup itself. There are plenty worse ante post options avialable.

Celestial Gold hasn’t run since finishing down the field (7th) in last year’s Gold Cup and due to the simple fact of him alive and fit is bang in the reckoning for glory this year. Martin Pipe’s 8yo improved throughout last season, winning the Paddy Power and the Hennessey Gold Cup, before finding Farmer Jack and Strong Flow too powerful in the Aon Chase, and while the improvement might have plateaued, he remains one to be careful of dismissing in a depleted field. It is unusual for a Pipe horse to be left in the stable for long, especially when he had so few representatives in top grade races, but with the Nicholshayne stable under a cloud, it may be a blessing that Celestial Gold has been brought along slowly this year. The Aon Chase may see the horse’s reappearance this February, and his performance there will obviously have a huge bearing on his Gold Cup chances. Last year’s Aon Chase may not have been a strong affair and his seventh in the Gold Cup strikes me as being about justice for his ability. His wins had come as a lightly weight participant in competitive handicaps. While this year’s Gold Cup may have lost some of its main characters, chances are that there will be horses of better ability taking him on again. Given the fact that we haven’t seen him on the track in nine months, and with the current stable form, it is hard to recommend him as an ante post bet. If he turned up on the day running to the best of his ability, I’m still not sure it would be good enough to grab a place.

Take The Stand has been cut in the Gold Cup market since he was somewhat surprisingly forwarded by a prominent tipping line and now the value that was available has evaporated. Although considered short of top class before last year’s Gold Cup, he had a series of fine weight carrying efforts in handicaps to his name, and if everything fell into place, he was well capable of troubling the best. Last year, Tony Dobbin stated that his mount didn’t jump a fence in the first mile of the Gold Cup, but having somehow managed to manoeuvre himself into a good position coming down the hill second time round, many would have fancied this stout stayer to ensure the stamina question marks surrounding Kicking King were severely examined. As it was, Kicking King found more from the last to win going away. Many have used the presence of Take The Stand to undervalue the Gold Cup form, but Royal Auclair’s Grand National effort, where Take The Stand failed to benefit from a lenient looking mark, leaves the race’s form hard to knock. Peter Bowen’s 10yo has not won a chase outside of handicap company but went close twice at Wetherby this season, finishing third behind Ollie Magern and Kingcliff in the Charlie Hall, and finding Therealbandit too strong in the Roland Meyrick. On the first occasion, Take The Stand once again failed to jump fluently, and did well to keep in contention on the run home, where he couldn’t get the grips with the two classier animals. He travelled best in the Roland Meyrick, but Therealbandit, in receipt of 16lbs, was always finding just enough to repel his game challenge up the straight. Persuasive arguments could be made that he was value at the 33/1 and 40/1 that was available immediately after the race to once again finish in the Gold Cup frame given his history of jumping better on good ground. However, with the subsequent withdrawal of the then favourite, and the tipping line lending their support, the fancy odds evaporated, and now the 16s and 14s do not tempt. While there was little fluke about his performance last year, and although impossible to rule out at long odds, his jumping deficiencies and his very poor strike rate mean that he can be overlooked as an ante post proposition at the moment. If you were one of the lucky ones to get some of 30/1+ odds about the horse, you should feel satisfied the way the race now appears to be bereft of proven class performers. He doesn’t strike as a value bet now.

War of Attrition’s progress as a novice chaser was much anticipated after his short head defeat at the hands of Brave Inca in the 2004 Supreme Novices hurdle. After a low key start over fences, he started favourite for the Arkle Chase, but was always going a step slower than the trail-blazing Ashley Brook and he could only plug on a distant seventh. Like many of the modern Gold Cup candidates, the Arkle rather than the Sun Alliance is the novice championship of choice, and it was expected that the horse would improve when stepped up in trip this season. With Kicking King out of sorts and unfit, it was Mouse Morris’s 7yo who picked up the pieces in the Daily Star Chase at Punchestown, immediately slashing his odds for the Gold Cup from 33/1 to 10/1 in the process. Since then things havent gone as smoothly as some of his supporters would have hoped. Mouse Morris’s stable form suffered a noticeable dip in November and War of Attrition was a disappinting odds on favourite in the John Durkan, plugging on slowly to claim fifth. Stepped up once again to three miles, he could only look on at a respectable distance behind Beef or Salmon, having been the first of the quintet in that race to come off the bridle. War of Attrition still could improve, having just turned 7, but the impression is that he is not quite good enough to win even an ordinary Gold Cup, and it may be that he actually turns up in the newly sponsored Ryanair Chase, given that his owner is that company’s supremo Michael O’Leary. He is likely to reoppose Beef or Salmon in the Hennessey and his performance there will give further indication to his Gold Cup pretensions. As he is unproven at distances in excess of 3m, he could always step up on what he has achieved come March, and with good ground in his favour, he might still have some supporters despite his recent reverses, but my inclination is that he isn’t quite good enough to win. A place might be the limit of his ambitions this year.

Morgans

Like his stablemate Monkerhostin, One Knight has only recently come into the Gold Cup reckoning, and despite his current position in some lists, whether or not the difficult-to-train 10yo deserves serious consideration for Gold Cup glory is open to argument. The 2003 Sun Alliance Chase winner is yet another in the Gold Cup market with jumping problems. Notoriously difficult to keep sound, he has had only three races since his moment of Cheltenham glory, falling in the Hennessey before being off the course for a year. Philip Hobbs has no issues in getting his horses fit at home, and it didn’t surprise that he proved good enough to make all and beat L’Aventure in the Rehearsal Chase. Instantly installed favourite for the Welsh National on the back of that race, another leg injury meant that it was 12 months before the rematch could be staged. Once again, despite the absence, One Knight was sent off favourite, and took the field along at a good clip, jumping better than we have come to expect, and duly burned off all rivals, bar his old foe, L’Aventure, who was clearly on a going day for new pilot Leighton Aspell. Paul Nicholls’s mare had just taken One Knight’s measure on the run to the last, when One Knight clipped the top of the final fence and come down, ending whatever semblance of a chance remained. It was a distance back to the Hennessey third Cornish Rebel carting 11-12 through the Chepstow mud. With the dearth of top class chasers, One Knight has been promoted by some speculative punters as a possible gatecrasher in the ten week lead up to the festival. If staying sound, he can set a gallop in the Gold Cup that could have many of the rivals in trouble, exposing any jumping flaws that may be waiting to emerge. It should be remembered that One Knight has his own jumping inadequacies, but he managed to clout most fences in the Sun Alliance on good ground, yet retain enough power to keep Jair Du Cochet at bay up the hill. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that he could do the same come March, but with Richard Johnson seemingly intent on riding the shorter priced Monkerhostin at the moment, it appears a longer shot that he will run. With Monkerhostin going for the Aon Chase, it is possible that One Knight will go for the Pillar, after which we should know more, but for now at 16/1 and 20/1 currently available, he has too much to prove to suggest punting on the fragile horse.

Iris’s Gift is another injury prone festival winner who has been given a speculative entry in this year’s Gold Cup. Connections were hopeful that winner of the 2004 Stayer’s Hurdle could contest the Gold Cup last season, bypassing the orthodox route with their novice chaser. They tested the waters by pitching him in a Grade 1 on his chasing debut, but with the O’Neill stable ill for the majority of last season, it was no surprise that he couldn’t cope with It Takes Time and Ollie Magern and the audacious Gold Cup plan was shelved. Retaining his novice status this season, but once again with the Gold Cup always the main goal, he began gaining experience over the larger obstacles in the conventional manner, winning little races at Bangor and Market Rasen. A powerful performance over Cheltenham’s larger obstacles gave further hope for connection’s plans, but when stepped up in class and asked to take on a Grade 2, he couldn’t cope with Darkness and was lucky to finish second. A strong horse, he has stayed on his feet on all his chasing starts to date, despite looking indecisive at most of his obstacles, especially when jumping in company. Although he has two fantastic efforts posted in two Stayer’s hurdles, he hasn’t shown the form to be seriously considered a Gold Cup candidate, and this allied to the unhealthy recent record of novices in the race, means that he cant be punted with confidence at any odds. The recent fall he took when schooling with Keen Leader would not have helped either. Its hard to know what to do with the horse, but it looks to me that the interruptions that he has had in his career to date have blunted his speed, and even if he was to return his best ever performance in the Gold Cup, it might not be good enough, even in this ordinary year.

masterK

Excellent write up Morgans, a really enjoyable read.

Have you noticed that nearly all of the principals in this years race have jumping issues, it's crazy to think that at the very pinnacle of a sport that most of it's participants have problems with one of the fundamentals of that sport.

I couldn't back Beef or Salmon Ante Post, if I were to consider him it would be on the day, he would need conditions right to win. The possible presense of front runners such as Ollie Magern, Grey Abbey and Impek will ensure a strong pace to the race. In last years race there was a strong pace set by Grey Abbey this ensured the fences being required to be jumped at speed, something BOS just couldn't handle. Interesting Cheltenham have had issues with the sun obscuring fences, at the recent meeting 6 fences were omitted, if something like this were to happen come Gold Cup day Beef or Salmon's chances would increase no end. In my eyes for Beef or Salmon to win he would need a smallish field without a known front runner.

If the race where to be run now I would probably go with Monkerhostin, he's done nothing wrong this year and is one of the few possibles for this years race that are on the upgrade. The fact he was closing Kicking King down with every stride over 3 miles suggests the extra 2 furlongs of the gold cup would be in his favour.

I couldn't have Celestial Gold, last year he was a well handicapped horse when winning the Hennessy and Paddy Power. Although Take the Stand may well be placed I can't see him winning, he is too one paced in the closing stages and will always find one or two too good for him.

I suspect the Iris's Gift may well go for the world hurdle altought connections are still talking about the gold cup.

The withrawel of Kicking King has seen novices The Listener and Darkness enter the gold cup picture, while The Listener looks a pure soft ground horse the Darkness is a very interesting propostion, he possesses an excellent turn of foot and cruising speed, if his jumping can be improved he could be any interesting contender if he is to go for the gold cup.

fr wishy washy

Just an aside, Iris's gift had a nasty fall during a schooling spin with Keen Leader (the good Fr's e/w fancy along with Hedgehunter) at Haydock on Saturday.I think he was unscathed but not great for his confidence.

fade2black

Excellent write up Morgans, I know you have it up on your site but I can think of numerous publications that would pay you good money for that article.

Morgans

Apart from the injured Trabolgan, none of last year’s staying novices have appeared ready to step up to Gold Cup standard, but if returning to his enthusiastic best, Ollie Magern may be able to best represent the second season chasers. Unfortunately for the Nigel Twiston-Davies camp, they had to call off their Cheltenham plans in the week before the festival when a leg injury meant he got a well earned rest. Small for a chaser but a very athletic jumper, he mixed it in the top handicaps last year, finishing in the frame in both the Paddy Power and the Hennessey, while remaining unbeaten in novice chases. Back from his break, he was as fresh as paint in his seasonal reappearance in Wetherby’s Charlie Hall, running off in Carl Llewellyn’s hands, barely giving himself time to jump his fences. It was a remarkable performance for a horse that virtually bolted to have enough up the straight to hold off Kingscliff and Take The Stand. It was all the more meritorious as he was giving weight away to more experienced chasers, and Nigel Twiston-Davies was understandably eager to tackle the best at Haydock. At this stage of the season, he was promoted to third favourite for the Gold Cup. However, at Charlie Hall time, his stable was in peak form, while other’s were readying their stars slowly in preparation for mid winter targets, and when the Betfair Chase came around, the fitness advantage that the Twiston-Davies’s animals had over their rivals in early autumn was neutralised. In the Betfair Chase, Ollie Magern didn’t travel with his usual elan in what was somewhat sticky ground that wouldn’t have been to his liking, and was the first beaten of the participants. Many have been willing to write his Charlie Hall triumph as flattering the horse, despite his immediate Wetherby victim winning at Haydock, but the critics appeared to be justified when he once again ran listlessly in the King George. There he led with Impek for the first circuit but disappointedly faded tamely. One thing that should be remembered is that he is noted to be far better going left handed and he wasn’t expected to feature at Sandown. Although he needs to bounce back to something like his Wetherby form to have a chance, there are plenty less talented animals shorter than him in the betting. There are several reasons to expect a better performance in March. He enjoys good ground, is running anti-clockwise, he has a decent blend of pace and stamina, and despite unseating in last year’s Pillar Chase, he is normally a surefooted jumper who when right enjoys his racing. It might go against the trainer’s natural instincts, but it wouldn’t be the worst idea to go straight for the Gold Cup itself, leaving him freshen at home until then. He represented poor value at the 10/1 that was quoted about him after the Charlie Hall, but he has drifted out to a decent each way price now, and although it bad practice to give horse’s excuses, there are pretty valid reasons why he didn’t run to his best in his last two racecourse appearances. Should the stable recover its form, and get the horse singing at home, he has stronger each way claims at 20s and 25s than some of his rivals quoted at shorter.

Two other second season chasers have outside chances in the Gold Cup, if they are allowed to take their chance. L’Ami might need soft ground to show his best, but only seven, the runner-up in the Hennessey Gold Cup has scope for improvement to get involved. Only fourth in the Sun Alliance last March, he appears to progressed this season and followed up his fine Newbury effort with a respectable run in the King George. Although he never looked likely to keep tabs with Kicking King when he moved up to challenge Impek, L’Ami kept on gamely to finish a dozen lengths behind the champion and Monkerhostin. Although those were two sterling races run on basically good ground, he relished the Warwick and Lingfield mud as a novice, and it may take a downpour or ten to bring some of the classier animals down to his level. That said, some of the quotes of 33/1 are mildly tempting from an each way perspective, given the strength of the opposition. L’Ami could go well at a price for a trainer who is adept at getting his horses to peak at the right time but all being equal he needs to improve to mix it with the favourites should the run the race.

Cornish Rebel may end up as the Nicholls first string in the Blue Riband event. This quirky son of Un Desperado finished one place ahead of L’Ami in last year Sun Alliance chase, but Francois Doumen’s gelding reversed those placings by taking second place in the Hennessey, when receiving 6lbs. Connections clashed over the horse’s Christmas target, with the owner looking to collect on his ante post bet in the King George, but Paul Nicholls won the argument and the horse went to Chepstow to contest the Welsh National on soft ground. Carrying top weight of 11-12, he tired up the straight when the superior stamina of stablemate L’Aventure and One Knight put the field to the sword, and he trailed home a weary distant third. Now placed in two nationals, having been beaten a excruciating short head in the Scottish renewal last season, he might lack the pure speed to cope with the more fancied horses in the Gold Cup. That said, the race is often run to suit the stout staying type with horses like Sir Rembrandt, Take The Stand, and Royal Auclair all performing admirably in the past few years. The strong pace, and good ground might excite the 9yo to his best. If he steps up on what he has achieved to date, he has some place claims but he has never been an easy ride, and has looked unwilling at times. If Ruby Walsh decides to ride another horse, Cornish Rebel’s chances would decrease considerably. It is worth watching the Gold Cup build up to gauge the vibes from the stable, but I’ll pass for the time being.

Royal Auclair is the second possible Nicholls candidate. Clive Smith’s likeable 9yo has been around for years, having been campaigned aggressively by Martin Pipe , winning the Cathcart as a 5yo, and now Paul Nicholls. Rejuvenated by a wind operation he won the Badger Beer Chase, before posting a series of notable performances last season. He placed in both the Hennessey and the Pillar Chase before running a lifetime best to finish fourth in the Gold Cup at 40/1, a full 13l behind the winner. He stepped up on that run when finishing a distant second under 11-10 in the Grand National. Given the failure of horses weighted above 11-00 to compete in the National recently, it was a superb run. He rounded up a busy season when falling in the Betfred. His Gold Cup and National efforts meant that he was never going to have it easy this season, as he would have to give big weights away to decent improving animals in handicaps, or take on the best in conditions chases. So it was somewhat surprising that Paul Nicholls nominated the Garde Royale French bred as his horse to follow for the season in one stable tour. Although he didn’t sparkle on his debut in the Betfair chase, where he finished 20l behind Kingscliff, his trainer’s decision looked to have been justified when he carried 11-12 (minus 7 for his conditional’s claim) to victory in the Mears Chase at Cheltenham. Put up by Pricewise for the King George on the back of that run, and his ability to run well on any ground, he ran a flat race, looking slightly outclassed to finish fifth, 9l behind L’Ami. He is an unlikely winner, but given the trainer’s bullish comments about the horse, a good run in even the highest grade wouldn’t surprise, and he may sneak into a place if back to his best in a strongly run race. Some of the quotes available about the horse previous to the favourite’s injury, at 50/1, were mildly interesting, but at 25/1, I’ll pass.

Morgans

When finishing second in the Grand National, he was getting a distant view of one of the best winners of the race in recent memory. Trevor Hemmings fulfilled his dream when the Willie Mullins trained Hedgehunter accelerated clear from the last to win by impressively by 14l. Trevor Hemmings has spent the last two decades of his life trying to win the Aintree spectacular and it would be no surprise that this 10yo will once again be at his best in April, but the form he showed that day in Aintree would have placed him in third in the Gold Cup. Always thought of as an out and out stayer – like Celestial Gold, he contested the 4m at the festival as a novice – but he has some smart form around the 3m mark, to suggest that he shouldn’t be underestimated in Championship company. For instance, a month before his stablemate’s Sun Alliance win, he was able to beat Rule Supreme in the Thyestes Chase, by jumping him silly around Gowran Park. Willie Mullins has been making bullish noises about targeting the Gold Cup with their Montelimar gelding, and having debuted him a handicap hurdle, he led the Lexus Chase for a long way, before getting tired. There was little to suggest from that run that he would be capable of holding his own at the Festival and we will know more when he contests the Hennessey in February. If he cannot add to his trainer’s amazing record in that event, I’m sure he wont be shoved too close to the principals, giving the handicapper further ammunition to hammer him come Aintree time. Come festival time, should he contest the race, he is one of many that will try to set a stiff stamina test. A superbly fluent jumper, he could go well for a long way and would be a dangerous opponent to get involved in a fight up the final hill. Whether he will be able or allowed to get into this position is open to argument, but at 12/1 (tote) its not worth chancing but had he not run to date this season, the best priced 25/1 would be interesting. However, he simply hasn’t shown enough in either his two runs this year to be of interest. It’s best to be safe and wait for the Hennessey to see if the horse is in better form. Of course, a big show there will ensure a contracted price, but he is not worth risking at the moment.

A total of 64 horses have been entered into the race, many of which have little chance of getting involved but in an attempt to specify any jokers in the pack, I’ve picked out some of the more likely outsiders. Joacci is no longer a big price after his good win off a big weight at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, and given the trainer’s poor run of form, there is a likelihood that further improvement is in the offing. In what was only his fifth chase, it was a run full of promise, as it had looked that the handicapper took no chances with him on his novice form. He has always struck as a class animal but it will need a swift progression up the ladder to get involved at the highest level. It looks unlikely but he is one of the more dangerous sleepers in the field.

Second to Joacci on that occasion was Lord of Illusion. Tom George’s chaser was an unexposed novice last season where injury curtailed his year after jumping brilliantly to land successive wins at Newbury and Cheltenham. He looked badly out of sorts in the early part of this season, maybe taking time to get over his injury, but his latest run, where the first pair drew clear of a nice field, suggested that he was not spent as a force. More races should be won with the horse, now that he has begun to regather the threads of his career, but it would be a major surprise if he was to improve enough to trouble the best.

Stablemate of Joacci, and Paddy Power Chase winner, Our Vic has spent more of the last month recovering from a horrible effort in the Robin Cook Chase. There, he jumped the first three fences abnormally poorly and was pulled up in front of the stands with a circuit left to go. He cannot be backed with confidence until he has faced a racecourse again, and given his festival record, he is an unlikely participant in the Gold Cup, and there may be some doubt of the horse turning up at Cheltenham at all this season. I only mention him in this preview as he is one of a few horses lurking in the nether regions of the market with the requisite talent to tackle the best. He probably will not stay the Gold Cup trip – he led into the straight in the 2004 Sun Alliance but faded into third - but with a verdict over Monkerhostin at shorter distance in the bag already this season, he would be an interesting contender if he turned up. He is not an ante post proposition at the moment though.

Jazz d’Estruval is another unlikely participant given that the grey needs soft ground to show his best, but a good win in any of the trials – such as the Hennessey or the Peter Marsh – would see his current price contract. He has a very impressive verdict over Trabolgan to his name when he put the subsequent Sun Alliance and Hennessey winner in his place at Haydock last season. Crucially, it was on soft ground, and Nicky Richards has been at pains to point out that he will only go where the ground conditions suit. This season, he began by taking advantage of a lowly hurdles mark in a otherwise competitive handicap at Haydock, and was intended to travel to Leopardstown for the Lexus. He hasn’t been seen on the track since, and it is difficult to know if the connections are actually targeting the Gold Cup with their horse. Like Our Vic, he is a horse with the exposed talent to take on the best when conditions are in his favour, but it is a longshot that the ground will be anything other than good or good to soft on the day, and he cannot be recommended as an ante post bet. Make no mistake that he is a good horse with a future.

A dozen novices have been entered in the race in what is an uncertain year. Whether the most talented of these – Darkness, The Listener, Crozan – actually take their chance is unlikely, but even so, this season’s bunch don’t look exceptional, and they are worth overlooking with the record of novices in the race itself a notable deterrent.

Looking through the rest of the entries, speculative arguments could be made for some horses given their ideal conditions. King Harald and Lord Transcend have the talent and could run well if given their chance, but just in an effort to say I told you so should another Norton’s Coin occur, I’ve picked out two possibilities at huge prices. Tikram in unexposed at longer trip, has won at the festival, and only seems to be staying on at the end of two and a half mile races. He shouldn’t be good enough, even if he improves for the step up in trip, but he did catch my eye at 150/1. However, at an even longer price, I’d like to discuss the outrageously speculative chances of Limerick Boy at 250/1. While the 8yo has loads to find, there is enough there to suggest that he has some tiny possibility of running a good race. He is being trained by Venetia Williams, whose horses have been in rattling form since December. She trained a similar type of animal, Lake Kariba to run a close fifth at a huge price in the 2000 renewal. Limerick Boy has some pieces of form to suggest that he has races to be won with him this season, including an impressive defeat of Lacdoudal at Kempton last year, but he has struck somewhat of being an underachiever over fences to date, and has something in hand of the handicapper. He had been a Grade 1 hurdle winner, and has run well over smaller obstacles at the festival previously. He has been lightly raced so far this season, and ran a good race when travelling well behind Fondmort in a race ruined by the low sun at Cheltenham’s New Year meeting. It is wildly speculative, but if he turns up in the race, and does win at a huge price, don’t say you weren’t told.

In conclusion, I think the race is most likely to rest between Beef or Salmon and Monkerhostin. Beef or Salmon has failed before, but what were excuses before are becoming more plausible and he might not have to produce his best performance to win this year’s race. With the open nature of his year’s renewal, there should be plenty fancying their outside chances, and the big field and likely quick pace might not play into his hands. He is the best horse in the race, but he has disappointed on this undulating course too many times to be a confident selection. I have always liked Monkerhostin as a hurdler, and stepping him up in trip could be the ticket over fences. Richard Johnson can switch the horse off and allow him to coast through the race. His potent turn of foot can be harnessed before being deployed late, and in a race where plenty others have doubts surrounding their chances, his close King George second should not be regarded as a fluke. The upcoming trials may yet turn the race on its head, but for the moment, the each way choice would be L’Ami who looks a better horse this year and may progress further before the big day.