Bad Luck, or just bad play?

Amaru

Tonight, i was playing the $18 dollar rebuy 10k guaranteed on Tribeca. 350 runners, 27 got paid(starting at $118, not bad seen as i hadn't rebought or topped up). At this point there was 30 left, and my reasonably healthy stack was looking a little anorexic from my steal attempts being reraised.

[Dec 24 23:02:32] : Hand Start.
[Dec 24 23:02:32] : Seat 1 : Amaru has $28,220
[Dec 24 23:02:32] : Seat 3 : spaceman50 has $39,960
[Dec 24 23:02:32] : Seat 5 : brumbajan has $70,810
[Dec 24 23:02:32] : Seat 6 : mr522 has $35,740
[Dec 24 23:02:32] : Seat 7 : yosimi has $29,375
[Dec 24 23:02:32] : Seat 8 : gerardin has $100,265
[Dec 24 23:02:32] : Seat 9 : grtdane59 has $74,670
[Dec 24 23:02:32] : brumbajan is the dealer.
[Dec 24 23:02:32] : mr522 posted small blind.
[Dec 24 23:02:32] : yosimi posted big blind.
[Dec 24 23:02:32] : Game [208] started with 7 players.
[Dec 24 23:02:32] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Dec 24 23:02:32] : Seat 1 : Amaru has Jh Kc
[Dec 24 23:02:36] : gerardin folded.
[Dec 24 23:02:37] : grtdane59 folded.
[Dec 24 23:02:43] : Stakes: 1,600/3,200 Current level: 12 Level up in: 10 min. Break in: 54 min. Players : 30
[Dec 24 23:02:52] : It's your turn.
[Dec 24 23:02:52] : Amaru has 10 seconds to respond.
[Dec 24 23:02:59] : Amaru called 3,200 and raised 25,020 and is All-in
[Dec 24 23:03:03] : Stakes: 1,600/3,200 Current level: 12 Level up in: 10 min. Break in: 53 min. Players : 30
[Dec 24 23:03:03] : spaceman50 folded.
[Dec 24 23:03:06] : brumbajan called 28,220
[Dec 24 23:03:07] : mr522 folded.
[Dec 24 23:03:08] : yosimi folded.
[Dec 24 23:03:08] : Showdown!
[Dec 24 23:03:08] : Seat 1 : Amaru has Jh Kc
[Dec 24 23:03:10] : Seat 1 : Amaru has Jh Kc
[Dec 24 23:03:10] : Seat 5 : brumbajan has Ad As
[Dec 24 23:03:19] : Board cards [8s 3c 3d Qs 4c]
[Dec 24 23:03:19] : Seat 1 : Amaru has Jh Kc
[Dec 24 23:03:19] : Amaru has Pair: 3s
[Dec 24 23:03:19] : Seat 5 : brumbajan has Ad As
[Dec 24 23:03:19] : brumbajan has Two Pair: Aces and 3s
[Dec 24 23:03:19] : brumbajan wins 61,240 with Two Pair: Aces and 3s
[Dec 24 23:03:23] : Stakes: 1,600/3,200 Current level: 12 Level up in: 10 min. Break in: 53 min. Players : 30
[Dec 24 23:03:29] : Hand is over.

I couldn't decide which play to make. I think i was unlucky to run into aces, but i'm still not sure the push was the right play here. I had KJ off, but i was in MP and we were still 7 handed. I had less than 10BB, but i still feel i could have stolen more blinds with position, as the table had grinded to a halt, and people's strict calling range seemed to be TT-AA, AJ-AK. What are peoples thoughts? Was my push correct, or should i have waited for more favourable conditions?

De Deraco

bad play i generally never push with Kj because if you get a caller its ussually dominated.

Hectorjelly

Push there every time.

Amaru

De Deraco wrote:

bad play i generally never push with Kj because if you get a caller its ussually dominated.

I wasn't really looking for a caller. I was short stacked, and hoping to pick up the blinds. I'm a dog to every single hand range mentioned, so this is more to do with position and stack size to me than the cards in question.

De Deraco

sorry yeah i understand but if you get one your in very bad shape, it was shorthanded so its not a bad move its fold or all in either isn't technically a bad move its a matter of choice.

Amaru

Exactly, so what i'm looking for is how different people lean on this one. I wasn't sure if this push was inexperience or not, as i've never played in a online tournament of this buyin/prize pool/size before, so being in the late stages with some apparently very good players is something new to me. If it was folded to me in the CO and i pushed, then i'd have no problem passing this off as unfortunate, but with 4 people left to act i'm uncertain about the validity of the push.

Marq

Push or fold. By which I mean: push.

OilBeefHooked2

30 left.. imho you could have picked a better hand even with only 10bb, patience is the key to get itm as at this stage players are only playing premium hands. also your shortsacked so stealing isn't really an option imo!

so yes bad play me thinks.

handsfree

seeing that there probably shorter stacks than u and u have ten bbs you have just enough chips to wait for premium hands. once your in the money the hangers on tend to let go and there are a lot of easy chips then so i probably pass

Iago

if you want to limp into 27th and get paid then fold

if you want to have any chance of getting into the higher money positions then push

it depends what your aims are

Sangre

With 4 left to act I'd be wary of pushing without an A especially when the table has tightened up. Although you were very unlucky to run into pocket Aces.

a-k-47

if you want to limp into 27th and get paid then fold

if you want to have any chance of getting into the higher money positions then push

it depends what your aims are

why would you want to push with this hand if you want to get into the higher money positions? its not a hand to push with, and that stage in the tourney unless im big stack it aint worth trying to steal blinds when you want to double up, i prefer to wait for at least AQ to push in a good position(hoping for steal). I think his move was poor as he was only hoping to pick up 4,8k but instead risked his whole stack and went out with nothing, u never know his next hand could have been A,A. Patience young jedi, (something i lack btw)

Marq

a-k-47 wrote:

its not a hand to push with, and that stage in the tourney unless im big stack it aint worth trying to steal blinds when you want to double up, i prefer to wait for at least AQ to push in a good position(hoping for steal)

As you point out, If he wins the blinds here, he wins 12k, which increases his stack by over 40%.

He is the shortest stack at the table, but this blind steal puts him up to third chip position.

Why would you want to wait for a hand at least as good as AQ if you are only hoping to steal those same blinds you say aren't worth risking your stack for???

I would advocate making the same push here with 6-2o, you're lucky to pick up a semi-decent hand like KJ.

a-k-47

yes true contradicting here, but at least id have a better chance to double up on. the blinds werent worth 12k, was only 4,8k nearly a 5th of his stack, its just my preference not to push here with kj with 3 off the money. and yes i play to win and can still win the tournament without playing this hand.

cardshark202

You'll increase your stack by about 20% and have just over 10BBs if you take the blinds so this is an any two cards push imo.

Amaru

1)

30 left.. imho you could have picked a better hand even with only 10bb, patience is the key to get itm as at this stage players are only playing premium hands. also your shortsacked so stealing isn't really an option imo!

so yes bad play me thinks.

2)

seeing that there probably shorter stacks than u and u have ten bbs you have just enough chips to wait for premium hands. once your in the money the hangers on tend to let go and there are a lot of easy chips then so i probably pass

3)

why would you want to push with this hand if you want to get into the higher money positions? its not a hand to push with, and that stage in the tourney unless im big stack it aint worth trying to steal blinds when you want to double up, i prefer to wait for at least AQ to push in a good position(hoping for steal). I think his move was poor as he was only hoping to pick up 4,8k but instead risked his whole stack and went out with nothing, u never know his next hand could have been A,A. Patience young jedi, (something i lack btw)

I think these are all very bad pieces of advice.

1) I'm shortstacked so stealing isn't an option? When would you advocate stealing the blinds? They have to call a 9 BB raise, which cripples most people at the table. It's also based on the fact that people are only playing premium hands that i'm making this push because, as i said, i'm not looking for a call.

2) There was only one shorter stack than me left in the tournament, and he was at another table. I don't have enough chips left to wait for a premium hand, and if i was to do that, by the time i got one, doubling up might still leave me with less than 10BB.

3) Yes my next hand could be AA, but its more likely to be something rubbish, so why would you want to restrict my hand range to waiting for probably 6 select hands? And the ONLY move here is push. If i raise to 3BB, get called, and the flop doesn't hit me, then what? Fold? Why let somebody see 3 more cards? What if i'm reraised preflop, do i fold, or put it all in? Of course i'm pot committed preflop then, so why not just put it all in to start with?

if you want to limp into 27th and get paid then fold

if you want to have any chance of getting into the higher money positions then push

it depends what your aims are

It's interesting you should bring this up, because my thinking on what i wanted from the tournament was very split. Usually i'd be playing for as close to first as i could manage, and if i money, then even better. But like i said, there was some very good players in this tournament, and it was clear that i was getting outplayed on several hands, especially close to the bubble. Add to this the fact that 18-27 paid out rather nicely. With these 2 things in mind, i thought it was more likely that i'd finish lower than higher, so i was happy to take any of the above prize range and be content with the money. This push here was to buy me time to at least slink into the money.

Ste05

This is a fine push, there's no action before you, so push away, just got terribly unlucky to run into AA here.

As it's always said, it's better to go out like a lion than a lamb. Unless of course you want to limp into the money, then fold, but I'm pushing here everytime too.

RoundTower

david-k wrote:

at this stage players are only playing premium hands... so stealing isn't really an option imo!

I hope you've just had a few drinks for Christmas.

OilBeefHooked2

RoundTower wrote:

I hope you've just had a few drinks for Christmas.

lol Well yes just a small one:p .

I'm probably a bit naive here but I think to get itm should be no.1 priority at this stage(prioties can change throughout the tourney relative to the situation),he was unlucky to get his KJo cracked by AA:D , limping or min rasise would have been a better move here with 3/4 players left to act and only 30 left. To get nothing for 3.5/4 hrs play is frustrating when you consider that a push is not the only option here!

OilBeefHooked2

Amaru wrote:

I think these are all very bad pieces of advice.

1) I'm shortstacked so stealing isn't an option? When would you advocate stealing the blinds? They have to call a 9 BB raise, which cripples most people at the table. It's also based on the fact that people are only playing premium hands that i'm making this push because, as i said, i'm not looking for a call.

I'd advocate stealing the blinds when you have a healthy stack and doesn't involve commiting your entire stack!
Fair enough you weren't looking for a call so why push with shortstack and 4 left to act incl. chip leader whose likley to call you with any 2.

I think the main thing for me after finishing a tourney is to be happy with how i played.e.g if my AA is cracked by 23o when all the chips were in preflop then "so be it" thats poker;)

You said in the original post you were in 2 minds as to how to play this hand "alarms bells" sounds like you knew yourself that this was not the position or situation to push?

Marq

Jesus Christ.

cardshark202

david-k wrote:

I'd advocate stealing the blinds when you have a healthy stack and doesn't involve commiting your entire stack!
Fair enough you weren't looking for a call so why push with shortstack and 4 left to act incl. chip leader whose likley to call you with any 2.

I think the main thing for me after finishing a tourney is to be happy with how i played.e.g if my AA is cracked by 23o when all the chips were in preflop then "so be it" thats poker;)

You said in the original post you were in 2 minds as to how to play this hand "alarms bells" sounds like you knew yourself that this was not the position or situation to push?

wow

Rnger

Standard blind steal at the bubble gone wrong.

I think I may have been a bit tighter here though. There still 4 players to act behind you. I try to steal at the button or CO as often as possible to minimize the chances of going up against a real hand. It's easy to say this now that you did run into aces. ul

Amaru

david-k wrote:

I'd advocate stealing the blinds when you have a healthy stack and doesn't involve commiting your entire stack!
Fair enough you weren't looking for a call so why push with shortstack and 4 left to act incl. chip leader whose likley to call you with any 2.

I think the main thing for me after finishing a tourney is to be happy with how i played.e.g if my AA is cracked by 23o when all the chips were in preflop then "so be it" thats poker;)

You said in the original post you were in 2 minds as to how to play this hand "alarms bells" sounds like you knew yourself that this was not the position or situation to push?

You're digging yourself one very big hole here. Why is the chip leader likely to call me with any 2? Whats been his calling range so far? Aren't i favourite against most 2 cards? He has nothing invested in the pot, so why would he risk a good portion of his stack to an all in? You might also want to consider the fact that the CL folded already, and that the person who called me committed a third of his stack on the call.

Amaru

Rnger wrote:

Standard blind steal at the bubble gone wrong.

I think I may have been a bit tighter here though. There still 4 players to act behind you. I try to steal at the button or CO as often as possible to minimize the chances of going up against a real hand. It's easy to say this now that you did run into aces. ul

This is actually whats really bothering me about the hand: Position.

Marq said he'd make the same play with 62, and so would I, but i'd rather make it from LP when its folded around, than KJ with so many people left to act. I expect to be behind no matter what calls me, so its position more than the cards that matter.

The Snapper

Amaru wrote:

I couldn't decide which play to make. I think i was unlucky to run into aces, but i'm still not sure the push was the right play here. I had KJ off, but i was in MP and we were still 7 handed. I had less than 10BB, but i still feel i could have stolen more blinds with position, as the table had grinded to a halt, and people's strict calling range seemed to be TT-AA, AJ-AK. What are peoples thoughts? Was my push correct, or should i have waited for more favourable conditions?

Using Harringtons Structured hand analysis and based on the following assumptions

a/ suits are neutral.

ie. cards
Kc Jh versus As Js

B/ Range of calling hands are as stated in op for two of the 4 players to act and a tighter range of AA-JJ AKs AK for two "tighter" players.

C/ Only one of the four make the call.

D/some variation where calls have overlay value (BB folds / SB folds / Both Blinds fold)


calls % calls/u win % $ u win expectation
loose player1 3.3% 1.7% $ 61240 $ 1041.08
loose player2 3.3% 1.7% $ 56440 $ 956.48
tight player1 6.4% 0.8% $ 58040 $ 464.32
tight player2 6.4% 0.8% $ 56440 $ 451.52
All fold 81% $ 33020 $ 26746.20

total expectation over all events ( no caller / call win / call lose ) $29662.60
expectation u fold $28220.00

This was a plus EV move IMHO.

spacing problem with table, could'nt present this as I wanted to sorry for the mess.
Any advice on how to do this better?

OilBeefHooked2

Amaru wrote:

You're digging yourself one very big hole here. Why is the chip leader likely to call me with any 2? Whats been his calling range so far? Aren't i favourite against most 2 cards? He has nothing invested in the pot, so why would he risk a good portion of his stack to an all in? You might also want to consider the fact that the CL folded already, and that the person who called me committed a third of his stack on the call.

oh well excuse me my mistake.

btw i still think it was a bad play!

Amaru

You do realise that you think its the wrong play for fundamentally wrong reasons , don't you? Peoples reactions to your responses should have made this very clear.

OilBeefHooked2

Amaru wrote:

You do realise that you think its the wrong play for fundamentally wrong reasons , don't you? Peoples reactions to your responses should have made this very clear.

fundamentally wrong?:eek:

is it?

ok then its a push with any 2 in this situation as thats obviously fundametally the corect play!:cool:

RoundTower

david-k wrote:

I'm probably a bit naive here but I think to get itm should be no.1 priority at this stage(prioties can change throughout the tourney relative to the situation),he was unlucky to get his KJo cracked by AA:D , limping or min rasise would have been a better move here with 3/4 players left to act and only 30 left. To get nothing for 3.5/4 hrs play is frustrating when you consider that a push is not the only option here!

If getting in the money is your no. 1 priority then folding this hand is fine. This might be the case if the last prize was €15,000 and the first prize was €1m but your father needed urgent treatment for cancer and €15,000 was enough to cover it and you couldn't raise the money any other way. If on the other hand your number one priority is to make as much money as possible then folding here is terrible.

I'm trying to be nice here, perhaps your thinking isn't absolutely atrocious but you just have an unusual set of priorities. Hope your dad gets well soon.

OilBeefHooked2

RoundTower wrote:

If getting in the money is your no. 1 priority then folding this hand is fine. This might be the case if the last prize was €15,000 and the first prize was €1m but your father needed urgent treatment for cancer and €15,000 was enough to cover it and you couldn't raise the money any other way. If on the other hand your number one priority is to make as much money as possible then folding here is terrible.

I'm trying to be nice here, perhaps your thinking isn't absolutely atrocious but you just have an unusual set of priorities. Hope your dad gets well soon.

lol prioties change with any given situation and you must adapt:)

hows your father?

PPP-Pit Boss

I see nothing wrong with a push at this stage of the game. Running into Aces was very unlucky. However was it entirely necessary to push for all of your chips. I may have invested 3x (10k leaving you with approx 18) instead which should be sufficient to force a fold from marginal hands and then have folded to the allin reraise knowing I was beat.

ocallagh

Amaru wrote:

This is actually whats really bothering me about the hand: Position.

63o in LP is a better hand

edit: and more fun to play

RoundTower

PPP-Pit Boss wrote:

I see nothing wrong with a push at this stage of the game. Running into Aces was very unlucky. However was it entirely necessary to push for all of your chips. I may have invested 3x (10k leaving you with approx 18) instead which should be sufficient to force a fold from marginal hands and then have folded to the allin reraise knowing I was beat.

This is OK if you are sure your 3xBB raise will fold such marginal hands as AK, QQ, and JJ and he will only reraise you all in with KK and AA. Otherwise you're getting ****ed.