Implied Odds

careca

I have my own ideas about implied odds, but I think too many people are using the term to justify terrible preflop calls. My basic knowledge of it, is to make a call because you could win a huge pot if you hit (bigger odds than the pot is currently laying you). Surely you can use this to call with any rubbish. I called a preflop raise recently with 53s. Flop came 24Q and I called another big bet, hit my 6 and took all his cash. Is this a good example of implied odds or were my calls terrible. After the hand the other player said " I could never put you on that". I thought it was just a nice way of saying "you fish".

My questions are ?

Are there 'set' rules to consider when talking about implied odds ?

Do they applied preflop, postflop or anytime ?

bmc

careca wrote:

Are there 'set' rules to consider when talking about implied odds ?

Have they enough left behind that you could win a LOT more from it?

Have you enough behind that you could win a LOT more from it?

Are they likely to keep betting once you've made your hand or are they strong enough to fold when you hit your little straight?

Are you strong enough to lay down your hand if you've only caught a piece of it?

Are you strong enough to lay down a straight draw or flush draw if all you've caught is the draw and the villian is smart enough to price you out of it?

Shortstack

They apply a lot of the time but only when stacks are deep and you are sure you will get paid off if you hit. I would call a raise preflop with most suited connectors (and unsuited against the right player) and any pair if both my stack and my opponents are big enough. Calling with gutshots can be very profitable against the right stack sizes and opponents. Good players will see what you are doing but the poorer ones will tag you as a fish which is good.

padser

Iv actually been putting a lot of thought into implied odds recently and actually intend to start a thread on it, as id be interested to see what other people think. However I have exams until the 22nd so it will probably be after Christmas before I get around to it.

The main points about them are that they do apply always, (except in the case of all in bets) but to a greater or lesser extent, and obviously they never apply on the river.

Example; You have an up and down straight draw on the flop and so are roughly 5-1 against hitting it on the turn. There is a pot-sized bet. 5-1 against you hitting your outs and your getting 1-1 on your money.

Normally this would mean folding. But if you think from previous experience that

a)a call on your part will slow this opponent down, and they will check to you on turn (thus allowing you a free card – meaning you get to see turn and river for calling the bet)
b)If they bet the pot on the flop they have at least TPTK and will call another pot sized bet
Then calling the bet actually gives you odds of 2-1 to hit your straight (from assumption a) and if you do hit it you can make a pot sized bet and be called (from assumption b) thus meaning you are calling a pot sized bet but have chance of winning not just that bet but another bet twice that size.

Therefore with the implied odds you are getting 3-1 on your money and you are 2-1 to hit.

Now it’s a call.

There are many problems with them being incorrectly used
~ People prefer calling to folding. Normally working out implied odds involves making an assumption like ‘if I bet 200 on the river he will call half the time’. Its very easy to change this to ‘if I bet 300 on the river he will call half the time’ or ‘if I bet 200 on the river he will call three quarters of the time’. None of them are necessarily correct but the first one leads to a fold while the second two lead to calls. Its very easy to fall into a trap of overestimating just slightly and start making negative EV calls. Its also very difficult to identify this in your game. I have started discounting all my implied odds by 10% to try and counteract it.
~ People often think of themselves as having more outs then they do. For example you might hold an overcard and count an extra three outs that don’t exist.
~People often forget to take into account the times you hit your outs but loose the pot. This is more likely then a lot of people think. For example if you were up against a set, and made a flush on the turn, (and the board is not yet paired) there are probably around 10 outs (1 to make quads and 9 to make a house) or 22% that you will loose the pot. And in this case its not just the original bet you loose, but also additional bets made after making your hand.


Anyway its just a few thoughts. Id be interested to know what other players do regarding discounting implied odds etc.

bmc

Does anybody know of a calculator that will allow you to calculate the likelihood of say 78s being ahead on the flop against KK?

Preflop with five cards to come the 78s is roughly a 20% chance. However, if you're looking at implied odds you have to assume that the KK will bet out on the flop so very often you will need to be ahead before the turn and the river. That's obviously a lot less than 20%.

If we guess a figure of 10% then we can run through some estimates...

Assume that KK will push the rest of his stack in on the flop no matter what, then we assume that KK made a 5XBB bet preflop, then assume that you have 78s and are thinking about flat calling.

So the pot will be 11.5 BB preflop. You are being asked for 5 BB. You need to be getting 9 to 1 against the KK to make it worth while because of the 10% chance estimate.

The KK will need to commit another 38.5 BBs after the flop for it to be a break even play to call with 78s. Also, you will need to have at least another 38.5 BBs behind to be able to call it.

This ignores the KK subsequently outdrawing you on the turn and river but on the other hand it is assuming you're up against an overpair rather than overcards...

I'm a bit unsure of that 10% estimate too...

Culchie

Myself and Roundtower and a little discussion on this last week in the bad beat thread on one of Washout's hands.
We kinda disagreed really.... really about the 'price premium' you pay, and what you are drawing to.

Here it is, I think it's a class case study.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=318578&page=21

bmc

Culchie wrote:

Myself and Roundtower and a little discussion on this last week in the bad beat thread on one of Washout's hands.
We kinda disagreed really.... really about the 'price premium' you pay, and what you are drawing to.

Here it is, I think it's a class case study.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=318578&page=21

Hmmm... I think my opinion is somewhere in between Roundtower's and your own Culchie.

I don't think Washout's example had particularly good implied odds, then again I don't know that his starting hand requirements would affect that much. I think the stacks were too short for the implied odds to justify the call.

Culchie

bmc wrote:

Hmmm... I think my opinion is somewhere in between Roundtower's and your own Culchie.

I think the stacks were too short for the implied odds to justify the call.[/QUOTE]

This is very important

careca

Also the info you had on that player must come into implied odds. As Shortstack says, if the other player is any good he'll get away from it. In your example there are three spades on the board, any good player will consider that the other was drawing to this and not lose their entire stack.

bmc

careca wrote:

Also the info you had on that player must come into implied odds. As Shortstack says, if the other player is any good he'll get away from it. In your example there are three spades on the board, any good player will consider that the other was drawing to this and not lose their entire stack.

Definitely!

A good example of a player who likes his implied odds is 5pin5... (maybe a little too much). It works out nicely sometimes though.

Sunday €30 freezeout, early on, nice deep stacks. Newbie player raises UTG+1 reeking of a monster. 5pin5 UTG+2 flat calls.

All else fold.

Flop comes 59J rainbow. UTG+1 newbie bets out. 5pin5 raises (BIG OVERBET) all-in. Newbie calls.

Newbie has AA, 5pin5 has J9s for two pair.

A lot of important factors in that.

Deep stacks.

Good read on the other player (he's never going to lay down his monster!).

Hits a made hand on the flop, i.e. not a draw or a single pair.

willis

i dont realy play implied odds preflop in tournies but implied odds has become so big in my cash games, ive won most of my big pots with 53 suited etc. again stack sizes and position are crucial in whether or not i play for implied odds. however i wouldnt be calling a 3bb raise in a mtt with 53 on the button, unless stack sizes were huge compared to blinds

MrPillowTalk

I dont think they are as relevant in tournaments unless as stated before there are big stacks around, however imo they are vital important in cash games.

There is some good material on 2+2 about implied odds, Brunson aproaches the subject on a % of you and your opponents stack basis, if I remember rightly e.g. willing to get around 5% of his stack involved with the worst hand so long as you can break an opponent of similar stack size should you connect with a flop.

When I first started playing higher stakes nl cash games it used to infuriate me when the "maniacs" as I thought of them at the time allways managed to bust me for big pots when I was playing like granite. For a while I fooled myself into thinking that there play was horrible and in the long run it would come right, before long when these players consistently played big stacks while I ground out a couple of hundred here and there I realised they were the ones who had it right all allong and that my classical TAG formula just wouldnt cut it at these levels. Following the necessary adjustments and a complete overhaul of my game I was able to compete much more effectively against better opponents, on top of that it became very profitable to play rocks who I would have avoided previously.

I believe most players understand the theory of implied odds but as stated in some posts the application in my experience is generally poor i.e. not really applied more used as an excuse for bad calls etc. The key to application of implied odds in my opinion is to make yourr major decisions on the flop and apply pressure. Also implied odds shouldnt be applied vigourously when drawing to a flush, this is the major mistake I find players making all the time, they call bets with a four flush on the assumption of getting paid when the flush falls, but opponents inevitably slow right down as the draw is so obvious.

I think shortstacks post is fairly on the money but deep stacks at the table are vital.

NickyOD

careca wrote:

I have my own ideas about implied odds, but I think too many people are using the term to justify terrible preflop calls. My basic knowledge of it, is to make a call because you could win a huge pot if you hit (bigger odds than the pot is currently laying you). Surely you can use this to call with any rubbish. I called a preflop raise recently with 53s. Flop came 24Q and I called another big bet, hit my 6 and took all his cash. Is this a good example of implied odds or were my calls terrible. After the hand the other player said " I could never put you on that". I thought it was just a nice way of saying "you fish".

My questions are ?

Are there 'set' rules to consider when talking about implied odds ?

Do they applied preflop, postflop or anytime ?

I would defend my blind with 56 suited but not with hands like Q8o A6o or K5. Even off my blinds I would probably still call EP raises with 89 and 9T suited especially if there's a chance several player will come with me. Stack sizes are also very important. With tiny blinds I'll probably play any suited ace and any pair, but with shorter stacks you'd often have to throw these away. Then there are players who argue their implied odds of playing garbage are greater because they have the ability to outplay you postflop with any 2 cards. (not) Cue Howard Lederer and Layne Flack calling large reraises from shortish stacks with Q4 soooted and Q6o respectively in this years WSOP ME, and both having their ass handed to them.

If you are going to call raises preflop then it should be with a hand you can make something out of. The only exception would be in a heads up pot against a player who you REALLY CAN continuously outpolay heads up after the flop and when the stacks are relatively deep.

Gholimoli

Implied odds are generally used when your immediate odds do not justify carrying on with you hand but your future odds will. It should be considered in any situation where there is a possibility of any future betting at all.
An example would be when you don’t have the immediate odds to call a bet but you know that if you can collect as little as one bet from your opponent at the end if you make your draw, then you’re at least breaking even .this is very important because if your opponent does not give you what you need to break even,then your taking the worse of it.
That is the exact reason why having the right opponent is very very important when drawing based on your implied odds and not your immediate odds.
Things to consider when drawing based on implied odd are:
Stack sizes:
The reason why its said that you need a deep stack as does your opponent is when talking about implied odds is two fold:
1.some times the difference between your immediate odds and your implied odds are so much ,that in order to compensate, you need a deep stack in order to be able to make a big bet when you make your hand, and you need your opponent to also have a deep stack so that they can pay you off.
2. when the difference is not that much ,your opponent is much more likely to pay you off on a bet ,when that bet is a very small portion of his stack than when the bet is a significant portion of his stack.(for example if BB is 600 and you make a 600 bet at the end, an opponent with a stack of 5000 is much more likely to call with a lesser hand than an opponent with 1600).
Opponent:
As I said having the right opponent that your sure will pay you off is very important as if he does not, you’re taking the worse of it.
The kind of draw:
As the most important thing about implied odds is getting paid when you make your hand, then the more hidden your draw is ,the more of a chance it will get paid.(str draws are more likely to get paid than flush draws).
Implied odds also dictate your hand selection strategy from the mid stages of a tourney onwards. for example when you elect to play a small or mid PP from EP ,what your doing is to decide to play for its set value based on implied odds. So if your opponents do not have the sufficient stack to pay you off when you hit your set, then your taking the worse of it no matter what. That’s why hand selection changes based on your stack and other stacks at your table during a tourney.
Regards,
Gholimoli