Very Bad Tipster Wanted

finnpark

Hi,

This may be an unusual requested but Im looking for a really bad daily paper tipster:D .

For the past month Ive been laying 9 different paper tipster tips at 4 euro per tip (just their naps) and have profit like Ive never seen before:eek: . They are all down so Im making huge profit on each one laying their tips.

However, Ive become extremely greedy and I want to lay more than 9 horses per day. Can anyone reccommend a really useless tipster that is definitely down at level stake 6 out of 7 days? I want to lay every race every day.

Thanks for any help.

fr wishy washy

finnpark wrote:

Hi,

This may be an unusual requested but Im looking for a really bad daily paper tipster:D .

For the past month Ive been laying 9 different paper tipster tips at 4 euro per tip (just their naps) and have profit like Ive never seen before:eek: . They are all down so Im making huge profit on each one laying their tips.

However, Ive become extremely greedy and I want to lay more than 9 horses per day. Can anyone reccommend a really useless tipster that is definitely down at level stake 6 out of 7 days? I want to lay every race every day.

Thanks for any help.

Barry Dennis:rolleyes:

finnpark

Is he not a bookie?

A bookie's tip is always the worst

masterK

Have a look at the bottom of the NAPS table in the racing post. In fairness to paper tipsters they have to make their selections around 36 hours before the race where the have no idea of a going, jockey changes or non runners and they usually have to pick a horse in every race which means it's almost impossible for them to come out in profit.

If you fancy giving it a go for the fun of it pick out a horse in every race on Thursday tonight and see how well you do, remember to nominate at least 3 horses in each race in case your first selection is a non-runner.

finnpark

masterK wrote:

In fairness to paper tipsters they have to make their selections around 36 hours before the race where the have no idea of a going, jockey changes or non runners and they usually have to pick a horse in every race which means it's almost impossible for them to come out in profit.

Exactly. If you pick 10 tipsters chances are at least 9 out of 10 will be down in a major way after 12 months. Its impossible to make a profit without seeing the betting and other factors. Also to make a selection daily is almost impossible. Its guaranteed cash if you have the bank to support a good/bad run.

I will let you know how I get on. If you lay them all then you really pull in a fortune.

I got the idea from the guy who owns Starcraft. He bought Starcratf for £800000 with money he made from laying on Japanese Betfair.

I will lay every single tipster (over 50) in naps league and lay each nap for 1pt stake tomorrow. Betdaq allows really low stakes I think.

masterK

So whats the difference in that approach and just picking horses at random and laying them?

There is quite a big difference in a tipster not making a profit in his selections at SP and laying horses at exchange prices on Betdaq. As with any exchange you will be laying to close to a 100% book where as SP prices will be at close around 120% meaning you would have to hope that the tipsters loss is at least 20% for you to even break level.

Also you are laying at fixed price and taking the chance the horse may shorten where the tipster price is based at SP.

seatleon2000

I nominate me .. I'm totaly crap

finnpark

masterK wrote:

So whats the difference in that approach and just picking horses at random and laying them?

There is quite a big difference in a tipster not making a profit in his selections at SP and laying horses at exchange prices on Betdaq. As with any exchange you will be laying to close to a 100% book where as SP prices will be at close around 120% meaning you would have to hope that the tipsters loss is at least 20% for you to even break level.

Also you are laying at fixed price and taking the chance the horse may shorten where the tipster price is based at SP.

Its a good pt that the SP values will not be the laying odds. But even taking this into account the profits would be huge even for a small stake.

Picking them at random should probably work just as well but if you select a range of different tipsters you will be less likely to go on a winning run.

Picking them at random will probably work just as well though.

finnpark

Going on SP value if you layed each tipster you would be +25pts or so.

Taking just £5 per pt stake thats a profit of £125 for yesterday.:cool:

I will let you know how today goes.

Morgans

Remember that no one will bet on your selections (On the exchanges) if you are offering them SP. Need to add 10%, maybe more, to your price.

finnpark

£125 profit -20% = £100 profit.

I think that selecting all the tipsters is better than picking at random because you know for sure that if a lot of people are picking selections then the majority will be down big time. If you just select your own selections you go on a winning run and clean yourself out.

If anyone is trying it I suggest to be careful. There is no point being too greedy at the start.:D

Culchie

I am joining you on this crusade, on an experimental basis anyway.

I've laying €4 per pt on the worst 2 tipsters on the Nap league on betfair.

scargill

Naps Table

finnpark

Culchie wrote:

I am joining you on this crusade, on an experimental basis anyway.

I've laying €4 per pt on the worst 2 tipsters on the Nap league on betfair.

The bottom 2 may be more dodgy to start off with. Long term Im sure they will make you plenty but when a tipster is on a real bad run like that they are due a winner - just based on probability. All the same over a period of time if you pick a few tipsters you should be up money. I tend to go for the ones who are down money and are just after a winner - lighting can't strike twice.:D Janus picks high priced ones but they are usually donkeys.

frodi

Try asking these guys for their daily naps

frodi.......... -19.52
scargill....... -32.10
iloveireland... -42.60
Capt.Sparrow... -43.62
Loni........... -45.25
finnpark....... -45.50
Chonaic........ -45.75
sector......... -50.07
Fandango....... -54.00
Pighead........ -54.00
The jock....... -54.00
Whyno.......... -54.00

Shouldn't go far wrong

Culchie

Lol .... off to a winning, I mean losing, I mean winning start anyway :v:

Keep repeating to myself "losing is winning, losing is winning"

finnpark

Well Done. Its that easy alright but only time will tell if you picked the right tipsters.

If you pick say 6 different tipsters your more or less guaranteeing yourself a profit after 12 motnhs. You will be up a lot after 12 months.

That Guy Janus is always good for a loser. He had a losing run of 22 already and there is only a month gone of the jumps. One thing you will notice tipsters will continually set new losing records throughout the year.

I did 6 only today and all 6 lost. I don't know if there were 2 winners in the whole nap table. Also now coming close to xmas is a great time to start doing it as the tipsters wont be putting as must thought into it.

Best of luck to all those doing the system.

My advice is to use as many tipsters as you can 6+, reduce your stakes to accomadate this if you can. Remember that tipsters do having winning runs, even the worst ones so have a nice bank as safe. You bet really low on Betdaq. Min bet on Betfair is 4 euro.

masterK

Finnpark, it is possible to bet lower than €4 on Betfair, there's a workaround to manage it. If you are laying, lay the horse at odds of 1.01 for €4, now go back and change the stake to €5. You will see in the bets tab that you now have 2 bets, one for €4 and the other for €1. All you need to do know is cancel the €4 bet and you are left with a €1 bet.

LizardKing

SkySports Tipster - Alex Hammond - Have lost a fair bit of money using her tips
http://www.skysports.com/skysports/article/0,,97-1104859,00.html

Culchie

masterK wrote:

Finnpark, it is possible to bet lower than €4 on Betfair, there's a workaround to manage it. If you are laying, lay the horse at odds of 1.01 for €4, now go back and change the stake to €5. You will see in the bets tab that you now have 2 bets, one for €4 and the other for €1. All you need to do know is cancel the €4 bet and you are left with a €1 bet.

Why, you pesky little rascal;)

I'll stick with the €4 per unit stake ... should be well within bankroll, and be enough to win the price of a few pints each week if successful. I'm gonna stick with this throughout 2006 no matter what.

finnpark

masterK wrote:

Finnpark, it is possible to bet lower than €4 on Betfair, there's a workaround to manage it. If you are laying, lay the horse at odds of 1.01 for €4, now go back and change the stake to €5. You will see in the bets tab that you now have 2 bets, one for €4 and the other for €1. All you need to do know is cancel the €4 bet and you are left with a €1 bet.

Thanks masterk, brilliant for testing out this system.

Culchie, I still think you should pick more than 2 tipsters in case one of them makes a profit from now on, it is unlikely but I would rather lay 4 tipsers at 2 euro than 2 tips at 4 euro.

Best of luck today, one of today's 2 lays is odds on.

Winelover

Here are my Lays for today. Put between 1.50 and 3 euro on each.. I am going to stick with these Tipsters aswell...


Northern Echo Lucayos 12:30 sthl
Birmingham Mail irish Wolf 15:10 Extr
The Guardian Lothan Falcon 13:50 Catt
Shropshire Star piper general 13:00 shtl
Belfast Newsletter Magot de Grugy 15:Extr
Raceform Update Border Castle 14:40 Extr

finnpark

I think it would be extremely possible to lay ALL favourites in handicaps, especially very hot favourites.

finnpark

Well Done.

Both lost, you win, today again. Your +£16 now.

Winelover

Some tipsters - 5 loses and 1 win :-)

stephenoleary

finnpark wrote:

I will lay every single tipster (over 50) in naps league and lay each nap for 1pt stake tomorrow. Betdaq allows really low stakes I think.

Love the idea Finnpark, but just wondering which naps league you're taking your naps from?

finnpark

You can sign up for free at the www.racingpost.co.uk and they have a press challange and naps table. You can also get something similar at sportlife but the racing post gives more detail. It is under tipsters.

Some tipsters have got the knack of picking nothing but losers - its uncanny. You need to do quantity though and remember there will be plenty of days that you will lose money but overall its guaranteed profit after 12 months.

I layed just a few random tipsters today and made a small profit, had one big winner but still came out on profit. Some days they will give you all losers while other days they might have 1 or 2 big winners but they won't make profit over time so its easy cash.:D

The more you can lay the bigger your winnings but you need a bank.

frodi

I did a points exercise on Evening Heralds picks for todays racing.
27 races, 4 meets
1 pt lay each
results 2 winners 9/2 & 3/1, loses 5.5 + 4 = 9pts
6 places (still a winner for me) and 19 losers (winners) = +25pt

+16 pts for the day. Betfair €4 min = €64. Mind you you would need a lot of money in account to cover all these bets.

His best was Exeter with 1 winner and 2 places
Southwell was his worst with only one place.

Might try this tomorrow :rolleyes:

Healio

All of you doing this should get together and put your money together you might make bigger money by laying more.

fade2black

Healio wrote:

All of you doing this should get together and put your money together you might make bigger money by laying more.

And if/when things go belly up, at least you won't be alone.

Winelover

Lets see how we do today....

13:20 Uttoxeter Lay * 7 Magnesium
13:00 Windsor Lay * 3 Ballyshan
13:30 Windsor Lay * 7 Jolly Boy
14:05 Windsor Lay *10 M'lord
14:40 Windsor Lay * 2 The Listener
15:40 Windsor Lay * 2 Manorson
14:15 Wolverhampton Lay *4 Prince Tum Tum

20 Times 20 Times

Please explain to me , why you are betting to lose ? I just don't get the fact that you are betting on horses that aint going to win. Or did i read this wrong , can someone explain this to a very very confused sarge.

masterK

Sarge wrote:

Please explain to me , why you are betting to lose ? I just don't get the fact that you are betting on horses that aint going to win. Or did i read this wrong , can someone explain this to a very very confused sarge.

It's called laying

You basically become the bookie and offer odds on a horse winning to other people, so if you give a price (lay) of 10/1 and take a 10 euro stake if the horse wins you pay out 100. Therefore you want the horse to lose.

Culchie

Today's Donkeys (hopefully)

Art Virginia 12.30 Windsor

Windsor 12:30

1st (9) Pedros Brief 13-2
2nd (4) Aztec Warrior 7-2
3rd (2) Art Virginia 10-3 Fav
13 ran
Also: 4-1 Witness Run 4th
NR: Arumun
WIN £7.60
Ex £40.00 CSF £28.35
Tote Place £2.40, £1.90, £1.60

GO ON YA BAD THING !!


Young Lorcan 2.30 Uttoxeter


I kept away from the bottom two tipsters today, as their tips are speculative choices and big odds. (proabably in a bid to get themselves from the bottom of the table, as the boss is putting pressure on them, not good business I'd imagine to have your racing tipster bottom of this league)
I'm going to keep my selection criteria to horses tipped to win at 5/1 or less.

Culchie

Hee Haw Hee Haw

Uttoxeter 2:30

1st (5) Moustique de L'Isl 13-2
2nd (13) Young Lorcan 5-2 Fav
3rd (3) Euradream 12-1
15 ran
Also: 12-1 Smeathe's Ridge 4th
WIN £7.80
Ex £29.60 CSF £22.19
Tote Place £2.30, £1.70, £4.00

fade2black

How about this lads. Starting from tomorrow we'll give a mythical bank of €100 to the active posters on this thread so everyone else can see how you're getting on.

Culchie

good idea.

I used to follow the gees gees years and years ago, but absolutely no interest now.

I do however have an interest in odds and systems, so I'm going to religiously stick to my criteria. (Bottom two Napsters, provided horse is 5/1 or less)
The fact that I no longer have any interest in the horses, their form, training stats etc... makes this 'laying against the Naps' thread great fun, and so far quite profitable.

Winelover

I have been foloowing this system with real money on Betdaq. I am actually up in fairness - however all profit made could go in one race..

Seems we dont really have a system at all. We are simply laying random horses.

This is a good article:
http://www.flatstats.co.uk/articles/laying_favourites.html

fade2black

I rarely back odds on horses so I also don't lay horses. The only time I'll lay a horse is when I'm hedging a bet.

finnpark

Didn't do anything today myself.

If your laying I think you need to lay in quantity and have a very large bank.

Probably less than 3 of the 50 tipsters will be up money by the end of the Jump Season. Tipsters are just an easy of picking the horses. One thing you can see is why it must great to be a bookie. You have all bar 1 horse in the race running for you.

I think people should post their selections and follow the mythical £100 bank. With a £100 bank I think £1 per lay is max.

What I really wonder about is the fact that 90% of laying tipsters are actually down a lot while 90% of win tipsters are also down a lot. I think if you layed the tipsters win bets and backed the tipsters lays then you would make a fortune. Most tipsters pick favourites in Novice and Maiden races because of the low price but favs win a lot of these races. The best horses to lay are huge priced horses in maidens and novice races where horses are over 4yrs old and also lay hot favourites in handicaps.

You could get a very bad burning if you have a winning run and potentilly clean yourself out. Also laying and tipsters etc are really distorting the market. You will notice in Ireland that money counts. Not many tipsters follow Irish racing and the betting community is quite small.

masterK

finnpark wrote:

The best horses to lay are huge priced horses in maidens and novice races where horses are over 4yrs old and also lay hot favourites in handicaps.

With huge priced horses in maidens, i would agree that laying those in Ireland is a good idea, but not in England, look at todays result out 4 or 5 maiden races there was a 16/1 winner in one, it is the same most days, there will always be one that would pop up that will destroy your bank. Remember a 16/1 winner in a maiden probably traded around 25/1 on the exchanges. My advice, stay clear of maidens, always concentrate on racing where the form is there for all to see.

finnpark

Hi Masterk,

Your probably right. I layed three horses in an english novice hurdle the othe rday, 1 at 1000, 1 at 100+ and 1 at 30 something. None of them won with the horse right beside one of my lays won at a huge price, 33/1 I think. Im not going to chace this anymore. I will stick to a few of tipsters for now.


Did anyone make a loss laying tipsters yet? Im waiting on them to have a good day.

finnpark

Winelover wrote:

Here are my Lays for today. Put between 1.50 and 3 euro on each.. I am going to stick with these Tipsters aswell...


Northern Echo Lucayos 12:30 sthl
Birmingham Mail irish Wolf 15:10 Extr
The Guardian Lothan Falcon 13:50 Catt
Shropshire Star piper general 13:00 shtl
Belfast Newsletter Magot de Grugy 15:Extr
Raceform Update Border Castle 14:40 Extr

You had a bad day today??

Don't worry about it these guys will make it all back for you and more. You get days like today when a few of them have a few big priced winners. They have to make a decent profit somedays but overall they will be down big time.

frodi

I repeated the Herald exercise again today along with the the donkeys on boards. Tony Peacock and Jack Streep each had four winners each out of 22 tips each. Longest odds was 13/2 shortest was 8/13, rest were as close to evens as makes no difference. About +30pts.
Unfortunately I only got to lay 10 of them on betfair and five of the donkeys won. Still I was only down €1.83 ( I missed the 13/2, phew)

I'll try it again tomorrow although I'll have to be a bit more selective as my betfair a/c won't be able to cover 29 tips for tomorrow even at €1 a lay.

Winelover

Started:

Thursday Layed 6 horses - up 10 Euro
Friday Layed 7 horses - up 5 Euro
Satuday Layed 12 horses - ?

Oviously I am not betting big I am sticking to 2 euro per horse.

I have been reading on other forums aswell about laying and some guy who has been laying for over a year (with profit) now has a strict rule not to lay over 8-1. He reckons best value in laying is in the 3-1 to 8-1 market.

I am of now to watch manu match and then try to back some real winners :-)

fade2black

I am of now to watch manu match and then try to back some real winners :-)

Do you know what the word oxymoron means?

(And I'm a Man U fan)

frodi

Winelover wrote:

I have been reading on other forums aswell about laying and some guy who has been laying for over a year (with profit) now has a strict rule not to lay over 8-1. He reckons best value in laying is in the 3-1 to 8-1 market.

I am of now to watch manu match and then try to back some real winners :-)

I agree with you on the 8/1 to 3/1 market, greater than 8/1 it ties up too much of your capital, less than 3/1 there is too good a chance that they might actually win! :eek:

Also if I get more than two tipsters tipping a horse I stay away as it's chances seem to improve. I also stay away from horses whose price is lenghtening despite being tipped. Something rotten there. Usually they go beyond the 8/1 price at this stage.

As well as the points exercise I'm laying at €1 a horse to the limit of my bet fair a/c today. I getting about 8 horses. Money where mouth is time.

Winelover

Won 20 today (10 losers, 2 winners).

finnpark

I think I will lay a full column from the star today for tomorrow's racing, not O'Connell as he has an idea about horses. Will lay one of the others though.

Culchie must have won his 8 euro again today. One of those tipsters are due a win though. The loses shown are just for the past 2 months, I wonder what was their loss for the flat season?

frodi

Jack Streep almost had a good day today. 15 horses, two winners at 6/1 & 11/2. Layer is +1.5pt for today. Not as good as previous but still up.
As for myself I still managed to get three losers so for the last two days I'm up 1.08. Most of my lays were running in Newscastle or Windsor. Go for it tomorrow again.

frodi

Jack streep had 3 from 13, mostly short prices, layer is up 6 pts
Ray Gleen calling Navan & Thurles had a better day with 4 from 14 longer prices so layer is up 4 pts.

I didn't manage to get all of them (damm xmas shopping) so I am only 0.5pts up for the last three days. Still better up than down.