A cold winter

Slippin Jimmy

Hi all,
I was in school today and we were talking to the teacher about the snow that fell on Friday. Anyway we asked her did she think that it was going to snow more over the winter, and she said that she had heard on the british met that it was going to be one of the worst winters in years. But don't they say this every year, that it is going to be a very bad winter. Anyone have any taughts or facts on this?
Thanks in advance.

It's came up here a few times in threads already.

In a nutshell, the atlantic surface sea temperature-thats the thing has has a big influence on the number of storms over the winter

It is going to be lower this winter due to the amount of storms we have had to date.They've stirred up the sea and mixed the colder deeper waters with the top water level(all the high waves and roll did this)

Thus the atlantic being colder this winter will send us less storms which opens the door for more cold snaps from the north and the east to enter the fray

Thats the theory anyway or part of it.

There are a number of other indications too but it might never happen-mother nature has a mind of her own and all that

Slippin Jimmy

So, would you say what the geograpy teacher said is right to some extent? It would be nice to get some snow for christmas day, and for a few days after that. Thanks for that Earthman

Supercell

DonnybrookGhost wrote:

Hi all,
I was in school today and we were talking to the teacher about the snow that fell on Friday. Anyway we asked her did she think that it was going to snow more over the winter, and she said that she had heard on the british met that it was going to be one of the worst winters in years. But don't they say this every year, that it is going to be a very bad winter. Anyone have any taughts or facts on this?
Thanks in advance.

Statistically, all things being equal..we are overdue a severe winter ..however ..this assumes..

1) Global Warming has happened in a predictable way..there will be cold snaps even in forecast global warming..though the cold snaps become increasing more relative to recent years than in the historical record going back say 100 years

OR

2) Global warming isant happening as some ostrages might think..we are well overdue a cold winter!!

However...

If warming is greater than previously predicted ..even "average" (1960-90) may be already in the "Severe" catagory in the new paradigm.

Personally am halfway between the two extremes, I do believe that we are overdue a cold winter, however I also believe what the modern equivalent of a cold winter isn't what someone would have considered a cold one by lets say 1980's standards.

Indeed some would say there are interdecadal cycles that forecast 2006/7 and 2007/7 as being much colder.

The overall theme is that overall we are overdue a cold winter..but just what means "cold" is open to debate.

I reckon theres a few more decent winters left..but reckon by the time i'm in my 60's ..Ireland will either be in another mini ice age or more likely..be sweltering in a more spanish or portueguese type climate (those countries will by then be deserts) and snow in winter is something only the old farts like me remember.

Danno

It could all be cycles, look at the decades of the 1900s:

40s cold winters
60s cold winters
80s cold winters
00s - ???

Using that pattern matching, I feel that the rest of this decade will bring cold winters.

Danno

Danno wrote:

Using that pattern matching, I feel that the rest of this decade will bring cold winters.

Dont think so Danno.
I was looking at my old records here and I recorded a snow shower on the 8th november 2001 and there was nothing nasty iirc about the remainder of that winter snow wise.
Patterns have nothing to do with it.They are just co incidences.
Weather is actually a reactionary occurance.

Danno

But there is a pattern as given above albeit a vague pattern

lucernarian

For me the 00's so far have brought warm winters on the whole if you leave out the obvious exception of February 2001. Those decades had bad winters fairly constantly during the 10 year periods yet we still await a "severe" snowfall to hit us.

Apart from his last reckoning, Longfield summed up the odds for this winter pretty well. I don't believe that Global Warming is preventing Scandinavian Highs hitting us with [strike]snow[/strike] cold air but SSTs must be affected one way or another if there is less ice covering the artic.

Dilly1

Anyone notice that its raining less and less ? or am I going mad ?
It used to rain for a couple of days, now it it rains for a couple of hours and then its dry for days on end. The rivers where I live have been low all year, I wonder if this continues, will we end up being charged for water use in the future ?.

Gonzo

ive definitely noticed alot less rain in general over past few years compared to when I was a kid in school, its now becoming more common for it to stay dry for a couple of weeks at a time especially in the summer.

Danno

Not quite raining less - but what is happening is more intense rainfall in specific periods of the year, other traditionally showery regimes are becoming drier, whilst at another time of the year it rains heavily and frequently for 4 or 5 weeks, October/Early November this year is a prime example, as was January.

Danno

http://www.met.ie/recentweather/monthlydata.asp?Num=60 <<< you can pick the wet/dry periods out a mile here!