Gutshot straight flush draw - call?

valor

***** Hand History for Game 2886456355 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, November 27, 20:53:52 EDT 2005
Table Table 36594 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 2: AllRoyals ( $122.54 )
Seat 3: Avsvallande ( $112.63 )
Seat 6: LoRDVaLoRiaN ( $112.40 )
Seat 4: tungtran73 ( $45.20 )
Seat 5: czplaya ( $98.85 )
Seat 1: ace8fish ( $98.50 )
tungtran73 posts small blind [$0.50].
czplaya posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to LoRDVaLoRiaN [ 7s Ts ]
LoRDVaLoRiaN calls [$1].
ace8fish has been reconnected and has 20 seconds to act.
ace8fish calls [$1].
AllRoyals folds.
Avsvallande folds.
tungtran73 calls [$0.50].
czplaya checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8s, Js, 4h ]
tungtran73 bets [$3].
>You have options at Table 36592 (6 max) Table!.
czplaya raises [$15].
LoRDVaLoRiaN calls [$15].
ace8fish folds.
tungtran73 calls [$12].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5d ]
tungtran73 checks.
>You have options at Table 36592 (6 max) Table!.
czplaya bets [$35].

Hero?

youcantseeme

just Flat call if it doesnt work out you can still get out of there. Id call.

Wallko

fold

valor

reasoning being?

youcantseeme

I would of called a bigger bet aswell but i love flush draws. Probably would of went all in after the flop myself i play it very aggressive when iv a good few outs, its gives you 2 chances if winning 1 if he folds 2 if you catch your card.

Ardent

Didn't your daddy ever tell you "never chase an inside straight son"?

careca

Fold. you are not getting the odds for the flush draw. And forget about it being a straight flush draw, you have only one out to that. I think people get a bit carried away with straight flush draws, they are great if they hit but you probably won't get paid any more than hitting a regular flush. If it is open ended you are adding to your outs and the odds are with you, but I would let this one go.

willis

he is open ended, any 5 or 9 make th straight. if your goann call the flop and then you hit a card that gives you more outs then you gotta see it through.Also if you make the straight its isguised and he will pay you off. I fold to the big bet on flop

Amaru

No, this is an easy fold. Your pot odds went out the window on the flop, and there was no reason to call that bet. There's also a chance you're drawing dead if the guy behind you has a higher flush, leaving you drawing to an inside straight, or straight flush. And like stated above, just because its a straight flush doesn't mean you're going to win anymore money. You have one out to hit it, and the guy is going to at least figure you for a flush if the 3rd suit hits, thereby folding to a big bet on the river.

RoundTower

Amaru wrote:

No, this is an easy fold. Your pot odds went out the window on the flop, and there was no reason to call that bet. There's also a chance you're drawing dead if the guy behind you has a higher flush, leaving you drawing to an inside straight, or straight flush. And like stated above, just because its a straight flush doesn't mean you're going to win anymore money. You have one out to hit it, and the guy is going to at least figure you for a flush if the 3rd suit hits, thereby folding to a big bet on the river.

You probably have 15 outs and at least 2.5 to 1 on your money. Easy call, I don't think czplaya is going away if you raise.

Amaru

If tungtran behind him has the bigger flush, how many outs does he have then(7)? If he does have it, then he needs to be getting 6 to 1 on his money, even on the turn. Other than a higher flush, what hand could he have? If he has top pair, or something like that, and either holds at least 1 spade, he'd still need 3 to 1 on his money for this call to be correct. Of course, if the 9s were to hit, he'd likely bust him if he holds the nut flush, but thats long odds against.

Iago

Should have folded on the flop, you have an OOP raiser and then a re-raise, you've only put $1 in and now your calling a bet of $15 into a total pot of $36 aiming to hit one of 11 outs...8 of which could be comprimised by a higher flush draw (in which case 2 are missing anyway), with the initial raiser still to act after you. If he pushes and is called do you fold then? You'll get far better opportunities I think.

On the turn you're drawing to 4 cards that will give you the nuts 6h 6d 6c and 9s, you also have 9d 9h 9c that may be good, or any other spade that probably isn't good. At best given the action that's happened you're up against two pair or trips. If a spade lands you'll find it hard to drop the river, leaving you open to a higher flush or in the case of 4s 5s a filled boat.

I fold here everytime and wait for another opportunity.

RoundTower

Iago wrote:

Should have folded on the flop, you have an OOP raiser and then a re-raise, you've only put $1 in and now your calling a bet of $15 into a total pot of $36 aiming to hit one of 11 outs...8 of which could be comprimised by a higher flush draw (in which case 2 are missing anyway), with the initial raiser still to act after you. If he pushes and is called do you fold then? You'll get far better opportunities I think.

On the turn you're drawing to 4 cards that will give you the nuts 6h 6d 6c and 9s, you also have 9d 9h 9c that may be good, or any other spade that probably isn't good. At best given the action that's happened you're up against two pair or trips. If a spade lands you'll find it hard to drop the river, leaving you open to a higher flush or in the case of 4s 5s a filled boat.

I fold here everytime and wait for another opportunity.

This post is full of inaccuracies.

1. There was no reraise on the flop. Maybe the best way to play the original hand was to reraise all in on the flop, but the OP didn't.

2. The other player does not "probably" have a higher flush draw - since he was in the blinds a lower flush draw is equally likely, but so is one pair or 9T.

3. A 6 does not give us the nuts. In fact a 9 is more likely than a 6 to give us the winning hand. But chances are either would do.

4. Why would you ever want to "wait for another opportunity"? There will be another opportunity next hand whether you take this opportunity or not. If this was the last $100 the poster had in the world, maybe it makes a difference, but he didn't specify that.

I agree you don't really want the 4s or 5s, but if they hit you should probably get it in against most muppety players. There is also a chance of getting paid off by czplaya on the river - the other player will be all in so even if he has a higher flush he will not be in the side pot.

Iago

RoundTower wrote:

This post is full of inaccuracies.

1. There was no reraise on the flop. Maybe the best way to play the original hand was to reraise all in on the flop, but the OP didn't.

SB bet $3, limper raised to $15 hero Called...seems like a reraise to me

You would still adovcate a re-raise all-in when the other two players have shown strength in front of you?

2. The other player does not "probably" have a higher flush draw - since he was in the blinds a lower flush draw is equally likely, but so is one pair or 9T.

Anything is possible, my point was that one of the two players in the hand besides the hero is just as likely to be on a flush draw but with a higher card. Why is this any less likely than the hero playing for his flush draw?

If you put czplaya on a set or two pair then what can you put the other player on? another set? 9T for an up and down straight or a flush draw...

3. A 6 does not give us the nuts. In fact a 9 is more likely than a 6 to give us the winning hand. But chances are either would do.

A 6 gives us the nuts, what hand beats a hand of 45678 if a 6 (aside from the 6s) comes on the river? A 9 doesn't give us the nuts as it's beaten if one of the other players is holding QT

4. Why would you ever want to "wait for another opportunity"? There will be another opportunity next hand whether you take this opportunity or not. If this was the last $100 the poster had in the world, maybe it makes a difference, but he didn't specify that.

Because I'd rather put my money in when I'm favourite to win the hand or I'm getting odds to play for my draw.

I agree you don't really want the 4s or 5s, but if they hit you should probably get it in against most muppety players. There is also a chance of getting paid off by czplaya on the river - the other player will be all in so even if he has a higher flush he will not be in the side pot.

You're assuming that these players are muppets and not good players, what basis have you got for that? What if czplaya has JJ and the 4s or 5s gives him the boat, whose getting paid off then?

RoundTower

Iago wrote:

SB bet $3, limper raised to $15 hero Called...seems like a reraise to me

Really?

You would still adovcate a re-raise all-in when the other two players have shown strength in front of you?

Yes I'd like a 3-way all in fest on this flop with me holding that hand, although not as much as I'd like to win the pot there and then.

Anything is possible, my point was that one of the two players in the hand besides the hero is just as likely to be on a flush draw but with a higher card. Why is this any less likely than the hero playing for his flush draw?

What do you mean just as likely? We know what hero holds. From our point of view hero has a 100% chance of being on a flush draw. The other players have between 0 and 100% chance; it's hard to quantify exactly, but it's far from certain.

If you put czplaya on a set or two pair then what can you put the other player on? another set? 9T for an up and down straight or a flush draw...

Sounds like a good range. Also maybe include pair + straight draw, or even one pair.

A 6 gives us the nuts, what hand beats a hand of 45678 if a 6 (aside from the 6s) comes on the river? A 9 doesn't give us the nuts as it's beaten if one of the other players is holding QT

79, a nine high straight. If you are having trouble reading the board I am more sympathetic because you are going to have trouble ever giving good advice. However I had thought you were an experienced player, although I don't know if we've ever met.

Because I'd rather put my money in when I'm favourite to win the hand or I'm getting odds to play for my draw.

Sounds very reasonable, but I suspect you have a chance to do that in this hand.

You're assuming that these players are muppets and not good players, what basis have you got for that?

They're playing online at what appears to be $.5 - $1 blinds NL. It makes sense to assume they're bad players, until you know more about them. Against good players I would be even more likely to reraise the flop.

What if czplaya has JJ and the 4s or 5s gives him the boat, whose getting paid off then?

He is.

Amaru

How are you actually arguing that there wasn't a reraise on the flop, when its right there in plain text

** Dealing Flop ** [ 8s, Js, 4h ]
tungtran73 bets [$3].
>You have options at Table 36592 (6 max) Table!.
czplaya raises [$15].
LoRDVaLoRiaN calls [$15].
ace8fish folds.
tungtran73 calls [$12].

More to follow. But on this, please, stop arguing against.

RoundTower

LoRDVaLoRiaN calls [$15].

There was a bet and a raise, but no reraise. Am I really seeing things wrong or does nobody know the difference? Before anyone says "it doesn't matter what you call it" it does make a difference. If you describe the hand to me and tell me there was a reraise on the flop I'm going to think it was played very differently from the way the hand history describes it.

Hitman Actual

Perhaps the confusion is that some people, especially online, think that the first bet on the flop is a raise??? Another of my pet hates in poker, people saying "raise" when all they are doing is betting.

Amaru

RoundTower wrote:

Yes I'd like a 3-way all in fest on this flop with me holding that hand, although not as much as I'd like to win the pot there and then.

So, you'd like to get all your money in the middle when you're not favourite, and possibly drawing to 4 outs? Interesting. Is this how you play all your draws?

Sounds like a good range. Also maybe include pair + straight draw, or even one pair.

Say the villains hold top pair, and one holds either two pair or a set. You're only a slight, and i mean slight(less than 1%) favourite to win then. Still think its good to get it all in the middle here? Also, there's no straight draws on the flop, only inside straight draws. A raise from EP, and a reraise would suggest neither are on draws. However, if one of them is holding 67 on the turn, then you're again a huge dog.

They're playing online at what appears to be $.5 - $1 blinds NL. It makes sense to assume they're bad players, until you know more about them. Against good players I would be even more likely to reraise the flop.

You think bad players play .50/1.00? Some of the best players on here are playing those stakes. And if you put it all in on a reraise, there's almost all certainty that you'll get at least one caller, and again, you're not favourite to a whole lot of hands. Even if its only one caller with top pair(highly unlikely), then you're still not a favourite to win the hand.

That sounds like an awful lot of -EV to me.

Iago

RoundTower wrote:

Really?
Yes I'd like a 3-way all in fest on this flop with me holding that hand, although not as much as I'd like to win the pot there and then.

definitions differ I guess, to me there was a raise/bet from the SB, a subesequent raise from the limper and now I'm faced with a decision. Two hands showing strength one of whom may be on a flush draw, both of whom have me beaten at the moment. I fold here, I'll get a better chance to double up elsewhere, maybe that means I'm not making as much as I should be, or maybe it means I'm far too tight. I'm open to instruction, why is a fold here such a bad thing?

What do you mean just as likely? We know what hero holds. From our point of view hero has a 100% chance of being on a flush draw. The other players have between 0 and 100% chance; it's hard to quantify exactly, but it's far from certain.

again it's definitions, in this position MY assumption would be that a higher flush draw is a strong possibility. Probably was probably the wrong word

Sounds like a good range. Also maybe include pair + straight draw, or even one pair.

pair and straight draw I could believe, maybe even one pair, although with AJ/KJ/TT/QQ/KK/AA in the SB and two limpers would you not be raising?

79, a nine high straight. If you are having trouble reading the board I am more sympathetic because you are going to have trouble ever giving good advice. However I had thought you were an experienced player, although I don't know if we've ever met.

Touche, maybe I should have had my weetabix this morning, either that or posted when I wasn't in the middle of spreadsheet workings!! Disregard my comment about the 6's although you're in the same position with the 9's excluding the 9s of course. Even more of a reason to fold!

I don't think we have met, as for my experience/ability I'd rate myself as an average player, most of what I post here in terms of "advice" is more how I would read the situation rather than specifically advising a course of action. For me this is a fold everytime, but if someone can post and show how in the long term this is a play that can make money then I'm very open to persuasion, that's what I'm here for, to find my way like everyone else.

They're playing online at what appears to be $.5 - $1 blinds NL. It makes sense to assume they're bad players, until you know more about them. Against good players I would be even more likely to reraise the flop.

I suppose that's one way of looking at it, I prefer to believe that all players are good players until proven otherwise, again that's my cautious side coming out.

Anyway enough of this quote/unquote thing, I shouldn't have started it and it makes for very hard reading!

careca

lenny_leonard wrote:

Perhaps the confusion is that some people, especially online, think that the first bet on the flop is a raise??? Another of my pet hates in poker, people saying "raise" when all they are doing is betting.

Ok, I don't want to start a long thread about this but I would consider a bet higher than the big blind to be a raise. The big blind is a compulsory bet, you can call that bet, fold or raise that bet. Why do they tell new players to say the word 'raise' before betting to ensure the dealer knows his intentions ?

As said above, each to their own .

Hitman Actual

careca wrote:

Ok, I don't want to start a long thread about this but I would consider a bet higher than the big blind to be a raise. The big blind is a compulsory bet, you can call that bet, fold or raise that bet. Why do they tell new players to say the word 'raise' before betting to ensure the dealer knows his intentions ?

As said above, each to their own .

I don't want to start a long thread here either over nothing, but technically the first bet on the flop, turn or river is just that, a bet. And sometimes it can be confusing to hear a person say "raise" when there hasn't been any betting.

careca

lenny_leonard wrote:

I don't want to start a long thread here either over nothing, but technically the first bet on the flop, turn or river is just that, a bet. And sometimes it can be confusing to hear a person say "raise" when there hasn't been any betting.

Sorry, ya, I was talking about preflop. I see your point alright.

RoundTower

Amaru wrote:

So, you'd like to get all your money in the middle when you're not favourite, and possibly drawing to less than 8 outs? Interesting. Is this how you play all your draws?

No, but I think I would have played this one this way. I can't fault calling on the flop but I think folding is over tight.

Say the villains hold top pair, and one holds either two pair or a set. You're only a slight, and i mean slight(less than 1%) favourite to win then. Still think its good to get it all in the middle here?

Yes. I don't expect too much argument on this one.

You think bad players play .50/1.00? Some of the best players on here are playing those stakes.

They're the ones that tell me there are bad players playing 50-1. Of course there are good players too. I'm playing $5-$10 Omaha at the moment; there are 5 players at the table and two of them are terrible. Most players in any poker game are bad players.

And if you put it all in on a reraise, there's almost all certainty that you'll get at least one caller, and again, you're not favourite to a whole lot of hands. Even if its only one caller with top pair(highly unlikely), then you're still not a favourite to win the hand.

That sounds like an awful lot of -EV to me.

It's not at all certain that you'll get called. And just because you are favourite to lose your whole stack does not mean it is -EV to invest it in that way.

Just read Iago's post, as well; you are right about these cluttery quote-unquotes. And you are right that there's more than one way to play a hand, and you prefer to play more cautiously than I do. How to play this hand depends on a number of things which you mentioned in your post. It would be interesting to discuss how probable a flush draw is for the first player to act, whether he could have KJ or AA given the preflop action, whether it is possible he could have a lower flush draw, etc, but I do think it was more important to get the basics right. After all your play here should depend mainly on what range of hands you think the other two players may be holding. Get the bet/raise thing right: it's not a matter of taste or a difference in understanding, it's just misleading.

careca

RoundTower wrote:

Get the bet/raise thing right: it's not a matter of taste or a difference in understanding, it's just misleading.

Here we go again. Tell us so what it is and sort it out once and for all.

The blinds were .5/1.

One player places 3 in the pot. Now is this a raise or a bet ?
Next player places 15 in the pot. This is exactly the same as the first person, just more money. So they are either both bets or both raises.

so you decide and let us all know !!

RoundTower

careca wrote:

Here we go again. Tell us so what it is and sort it out once and for all.

The blinds were .5/1.

Some players did something, and then the flop was dealt.

One player places 3 in the pot. Now is this a raise or a bet ?

A bet.

Next player places 15 in the pot. This is exactly the same as the first person, just more money. So they are either both bets or both raises.

A raise. He raises the first player's bet of 3 to 15.

so you decide and let us all know !!

Maybe someone could say the second one is a bet, as he is betting money. It's definitely a raise, calling it a bet as well is stretching things. Calling the first one a raise is not stretching anything, it's just incorrect.

careca

RoundTower wrote:

Maybe someone could say the second one is a bet, as he is betting money. It's definitely a raise, calling it a bet as well is stretching things. Calling the first one a raise is not stretching anything, it's just incorrect.

Full apology. I read it totally incorrect. Back to sleep for me.

Amaru

RoundTower wrote:

No, but I think I would have played this one this way. I can't fault calling on the flop but I think folding is over tight.

Say Qs hits on the turn and there's a check and a raise in front of him. Then what? Reraise with your 10 high flush? Flat call? What if its the 4s, pairing the board and there's a raise? Do you throw your hand away then? If you're planning on calling on the river, shouldn't you throw in a raise on the turn?

Yes. I don't expect too much argument on this one.

Sorry, my post had an error in it. You're only a slight favourite to two pair. You're way behind a set.

They're the ones that tell me there are bad players playing 50-1. Of course there are good players too. I'm playing $5-$10 Omaha at the moment; there are 5 players at the table and two of them are terrible. Most players in any poker game are bad players.

This is a moot point. It doesn't matter if the players are good or bad, it wouldn't change what they're holding. If they're holding any of the hands i've listed previously, then you're way behind, and thats a huge range.

It's not at all certain that you'll get called. And just because you are favourite to lose your whole stack does not mean it is -EV to invest it in that way.

And you are right that there's more than one way to play a hand, and you prefer to play more cautiously than I do.

It's not certain you'll get called? The guy has committed half his stack by the turn(50BB), and you're not certain he'd get the rest of it in the middle?
And there's only one way to play a hand in cash games, and thats profitably. Anything else is objectively wrong. How much profit you make however depends entirely on the person's style of play. You haven't presented any maths whatsoever to justify this as a profitable call in the long run, you've just been saying that it is. Until you can show that this is +EV to keep calling or get all your money in the middle, then you don't have a leg to stand on.

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

Say Qs hits on the turn and there's a check and a raise in front of him.

This is really funny, I was actually thinking of creating a thread pointing out this common mistake but decided not to. I cant understand whats so difficult; the first bet is a bet, then a raise, then a reraise. Preflop there is already a blind bet which might confuse people a little.

RoundTower

I think you're misreading me, Amaru. How I would have played this hand, and have said so all along, is to call or reraise (or should that be re-re-reraise) on the flop, and to call on the turn. I never suggested sticking it all in on the turn.

It matters hugely whether you're playing against good or bad players. It matters because it could give you an indication what kind of hand they have now, and whether you will get paid off by a worse hand on the river

And there's only one way to play a hand in cash games, and thats profitably. Anything else is objectively wrong. How much profit you make however depends entirely on the person's style of play. You haven't presented any maths whatsoever to justify this as a profitable call in the long run, you've just been saying that it is. Until you can show that this is +EV to keep calling or get all your money in the middle, then you don't have a leg to stand on.

This made me laugh a little bit. There are often several profitable ways to play a hand. In fact, folding here could never be profitable: it would always be exactly break-even. Calling could be profitable or unprofitable or break-even. It really depends on what kind of hands your opponents are likely to have here, and partly on how czplaya will play the river.

Suppose for example the bettor (rereraiser if you like) has top set JJ and the player in first position (the player who rerererereraised the flop, if you prefer) has KJ, no spade, and will call. Suppose also that the rereraiser will pay you off if you hit your hand on the river and you will pay him off if you hit your hand but he makes a full house.

In that case the call costs you $35, the main pot will have $155 or so in it, and the side pot if there is one will be about $100. There are 42 unknown cards of which:

2 will cause you to lose your stack when you reraise the river and he rerereraises you all in. You will lose a further $50.

13 will allow you to get his stack when you rereraise the river and he rererererererereraises you all in. You will win $155+50 = 205.

27 will give you one pair or worse; you will fold when he rererereraises, losing no more money.

So in this case the expectation on the call is 2/42 (-$50) + 13/42 (+$205) = -$2.38 + $63.45 = about $60 return for our $35. That is why the call is +EV in this situation, it's about the same as someone giving you a present of $25. Of course this situation is almost as good as you could hope for, but that's why we need to discuss what hands the players are likely to hold. Is this a particularly likely scenario? Maybe not. But you can't "prove" the call is a good one, as you would like me to do, unless you know for certain what hands the other players hold.

I didn't present all this maths in the first place because that's not the way I would think about it if I was playing the hand. I'd just think "OK I've got a big draw, less than a pot sized bet to me, some money to come on the river, almost certain there will be two other players" and call automatically. The maths is just a way of justifying that.

Hectorjelly

If I had called the flop I would call the turn as well. First of all hand ranges are going to be hard to assign because both villains are in the blinds and it was unraised preflop (btw the preflop call is bad). Whats important to note is that you have position, I think its unlikely that tungtran has a higher flush draw but if he does and the flush hits we will get to see his action before we make ours. In this sort of multiway big pot players tend to play very honestly. That said Im happy to go broke in this spot to a higher flush, as I think its unlikely you are up against another flush draw and if you are it could be lower.

As for the maths, three 6's give us a straight and its hard to imagine a situation where this doesnt win it for us. Again 9's give us a straight and while its not the nuts its hard to imagine it not winning for us. So thats 6 clean outs. And then we have 9 spades which may or may not win it for us, assuming they do we have a total of 15 outs. This means that you can call a pot sized bet, and to fold is actually a mistake. Fairly basic stuff!

handsfree

if your going to try and get lucky stick it all in. in the long term for me this is a losing call, i find online especially that a lot of draws are busted on the river. i definity fold to much money just to get lucky .

cardshark202

I think in general the most profitable way to play big draws is to try and get as much money in before you hit (especially against half decent players cos they may not pay you off if you hit). Re-raising the flop is a good move imo because it also gives you a chance to take it down. Though, with the stack sizes as they are in this case, calling isn't the worst move in the world.

Hectorjelly

cardshark202 wrote:

I think in general the most profitable way to play big draws is to try and get as much money in before you hit

lol - would it not be more profitable to get the money in after youve made your hand or while you have ten high?

cardshark202

Hectorjelly wrote:

lol - would it not be more profitable to get the money in after youve made your hand or while you have ten high?

Well no. The reason for this is that if you had top set on a straightened flop with 2 spades and have been flat called after leading out. You put the caller on a straight and/or a flush draw. Turn is a spade and you bet to test whether he actually has it. He re-raises all in. Call or fold? You're pretty sure he has the flush. Fold obviously. if the caller had re-raised you on the flop he would have got all your chips rather then some of them.

I dont know about you but in my eyes open-ended straight flush draws or top pair nut flush draws are monster hands on the flop.

RoundTower

I'm fairly sure you can't be favourite against a set with a drawing hand in hold'em. So the only time you want to raise like this is if there is some chance he will fold (unlikely with top set), or if you will be getting the money in multiway.

handsfree

what do you do hector when you miss on the river?? monster bluff or or fold.

valor

I called and the river bricked

He pushed and I folded

I thought about pushing the turn but we werent deep enough, no way he was folding

careca

valor wrote:

I called and the river bricked

He pushed and I folded

I thought about pushing the turn but we werent deep enough, no way he was folding

So we were right to fold

Only jokin, I know the result is immaterial.

RoundTower

valor wrote:

I called and the river bricked

He pushed and I folded

I thought about pushing the turn but we werent deep enough, no way he was folding

This is right for completely the wrong reason. Even if you both had $150 behind it would be a bad push, because you will only win if you hit your hand anyway. There is no side pot to bluff at, and you lose any implied odds you have.