Interesting Hands

Hectorjelly

Here are three old famous hands (stolen from 2+2), the choice in each case is the same. Fold, Call or Raise.
They are all 10/20 nl hands, against mainly good tight opposition.

Hand 1

I'm in the BB with QQ
It's folded to the button - loose, aggressive and unpredictable
He makes it $100
SB is a strong experienced NL player. He re-raises to about $250.
I have just over $2k in chips, so does SB and button has more than $4k


Hand 2

I raise from EP with AKo to about $80
One LP caller, solid player
Flop is K65 I bet the pot and get flat called
Turn is another K, I bet the pot again & am raised another thousand
I have about $2k left, him about $1500

Hand 3

I'm in BB with AKh, UTG limps, three more call.
I raise to about $150, UTG and SB call.
Flop is JT8, with 2 hearts, SB checks and I bet the pot.
UTG flat calls and I get raised another $800 by the SB. I have more than $3k left, SB and UTG both $1500 - $2000

So what would you do in each situation? Also, were there any mistakes made by the player on the earlier streets.

DeVore

Havent had time to really think these through (but then again on a table you dont get tons of time...)

Hand 1: I have a feeling this is one of those hands where the maths and the odds-geeks will find some clever reason why you should drop QQ. I'd go all in to isolate one of them or flat call to see a flop. I think the latter.

Hand 2 is a stealth set if ever I saw one. You are up against a made house most likely and should drop the hand unless you read him for KQ. Hard to say without looking at the bloke. Should probably drop it, probably wouldnt though.

Hand 3: What the hell is he betting the flop for?! He has a flush draw, a nice cheap card would be preferred to betting the pot imho. SB is likely to fold and he's not go his pot odds for the flush draw. I might do this to fake it that I DONT have the flush draw and that I actually have hit some of that. Then if the flush comes, check very meekly inviting the respresentation of it from UTG.
Probably one of them has JT SB may have a set of 8's.
I'd drop this, and smack myself for betting the flop in that situation.

I'm afraid without more information and player knowledge its very hard to give any "correct" answer to these questions. I cant even say what I would do with any certainty as its very much a "I'd have to be there" kinda thing...

DeV.

Juan Pablo

Probably need more time to think about it but....

1) Re-raise to $750, if called being prepared to dump the ho's on any overcarded flop

2) A tough one here, what could he call $80 (too small a preflop raise here, would have bumped at least $240 into the pot preflop) with? AK also? Might have reraised the $80. KQ? Possible, but the possibility of 55 or 66 here may actually make me fold. Although by the time I'd have realised that I would have already been Jap-Sai!

3) Flat call, Q9 may be lurking..... but there is a heart coming on the turn anyway......!

Anyway what is he doing playing junk like AKs and QQ in the first place

careca

I haven't done the maths either but I would raise, raise and raise . And just in case I missed one, raise.

Iago

ok first off I have to state that I'm a very aggresive player and occasionally a little loose but this is how I would play these hands, probably wrong but it's my opinion and I'm open to constructive criticism and advice..


Hand 1
I'm raising on this hand. Button could be holding anything, but most likely a small pair or QJ, JT, T9 suited is my guess. Maybe trying to steal the pot from the blinds, but not on a particularily good hand.

SB is holding Ax (where x is 7 or higher) or a medium pair, doesn't want to raise too much as he is looking for the button to call him and hit on the flop. Quite possibly puts the button on a steal, or low pocket pair due to his playing style.

Based on this I'm happy with my QQ, there's no sense in folding, if I flat call I'm allowing the drawing hand to hit and dominate me, so I have to raise. Only question is do I go all-in or not. If I do it's a massive overbet, not likely to get called by a drawing hand, but if I'm called then I'm probably behind, the danger is that it may look like a steal on my part. On the other hand if I raise a small amount and don't hit the flop I can get away lightly if required.

I think I would go all-in on this, it represents a significant part of the loose players stack and therefore makes it unlikely he will call, even being loose aggresive. It represents all of the SB's stack so I think he would throw his hand away. If either of them calls I'm confident that I would have the best of it preflop.

Hand 2

I'm presuming that there isn't a flush draw on the board for either of us at this point. he's called a significant preflop raise from an early position raiser, you have to assume that he had a hand preflop either a good pocket pair or Ax, Kx(where x is T or higher), it's possible that he might call with 55 or 66, but probably not.

Is his raise on the turn a reaction to your perceived weakness by betting the pot rather than a larger bet, or has he hit a weak house and is trying to take you off the pot?

If you call here you may as well raise as the odds are the chips will go in on the river anyway. I'm putting him on a high pocket pair and not believing I have the K. So I'm afraid that I'm all in here as well.

I think I'd of made a bigger bet preflop maybe around $150-$200, and on the flop if I was called preflop..

Hand 3

in this hand I would simply call the raise and see what the turn brings. If it's a heart or any of the Q's happy days, if not then it would depend on what bet was made, I don't like drawing to the river but if the bet wasn't significant enough then I might have a pop at it.

Again I might have raised more preflop, but more to try and take the players off the hand than anything else, I hate AK

Hectorjelly

Here are my thoughts, only the third hand requires any maths. I had the advantage of reading the follow up thoughts, so I cant take credit for most of the thinking.

Hand 1


1 fold) There is no reason to suspect that your hand is not the best here so I dont think you can fold.
2 raise) Theres no problem with raising here, you probably have the best hand so you may as well take down the pot. A reraise of 3/400 is fine, but going all in here is terrible in my opinion, your going to risk 2k to win a pot that has less than $400 in it! If you get called your against AA or KK, nobody is calling here with any less. So when your ahead you make nothing more, and when your behind you lose your whole stack (2k).
3) I prefer a call though, because if the problem with raising is you raise you reopen the betting; and if either of your oppoenents have AA or KK they are going to reraise you and you have to fold. There is no way your opponents are reraising with JJ here. So by raising you are denying yourself the chance to hit a set and break one of the players who wont let go of his overpair.

Hand 2

Your against good opponents, so its very unlikely that your ahead here. You raised preflop, on the flop and on the turn, so they pretty much have spelled out your hand here; they can beat AK. Its likely that you are drawing to 4 outs, the case K and any ace. So its a fold. This is a tough fold, and you need to be up against tough opposition to even consider it.

Hand 3

This is the most interesting hand IMO, as a good case can be made for each option. I wont bore anyone with the maths, but you are slightly behind 2 pair (J10) and a good bit behind (you will win about 1/3 of the time) a set. Your a good bit ahead of a single pair, but its unlikely you are being reraised by a single pair. The problem with folding is that its weak tight, and if your going to fold this flop then you shouldnt be raising with AK. The problem with reraising all in, is that you if your committed to your draw you want SB to call as well. You also have probably 0 folding equity, and a good chance of losing another 2k on this hand. And finally calling is bad because you will then be forced to make another - EV call on the turn, allthough you can get away from the hand if the board pairs. Your action might dry up should a heart turn as well.

Iago

Hectorjelly wrote:

Here are my thoughts, only the third hand requires any maths. I had the advantage of reading the follow up thoughts, so I cant take credit for most of the thinking.

Hand 1


1 fold) There is no reason to suspect that your hand is not the best here so I dont think you can fold.
2 raise) Theres no problem with raising here, you probably have the best hand so you may as well take down the pot. A reraise of 3/400 is fine, but going all in here is terrible in my opinion, your going to risk 2k to win a pot that has less than $400 in it! If you get called your against AA or KK, nobody is calling here with any less. So when your ahead you make nothing more, and when your behind you lose your whole stack (2k).

Granted that 3/400 should take drawing hands off the pot, but if the button is loose aggresive and has AT or AJ for example, would he not still call? Similarly if the SB is holding AK or JJ TT would he not still call what is in effect a 300 raise in order to win 1200?

I think that a small to medium raise here is allowing players to maybe get involved with a drawing hand or a lower hand that could beat you on the flop. I agree that risking 2000 to win 400 is a little off the wall, but how many times will the two hands fold as opposed to call in that situation?

What are the odds of one of the remaining players holding AA or KK (particularily KK considering the smallish raises) and how many times out of 10 in that situation will my all-in then be called? Even if an opponent is holding KK, how many times will they drop that to an all-in raise for their entire stack or the majority of their stack, fearing that they are dominated by AA?? Again like every question this is as dependant on personality as direct odds, what is their fear of losing their entire stack in one hand as opposed to the odds they may be getting to play it?

I'm genuinely curious to get a "statistician" opinion and figures on this, the emotional side is obviously completely subjective...

Hitman Actual

I've never posted on hands here, so at the risk of ridicule

Hand 1: You're in a tricky position... aggressive player still to act after you. I like just calling here, you have the implied odds to hit your set if AA or KK is out, and would fold if button re-raises. I wouldn't like to end up all-in pre-flop here. For some reason I'm wary of SB.... I kinda get the feeling he wants button to re-raise, so does he hold AA?

Hand 2: Definately looks like a set (i.e. house) , get out quick.

Need to have closer look at Hand 3

DeVore

Wow HJ, we almost agree with each other on all three hands! I dont think Two Bits could give you the odds on that

DeV.

Hectorjelly

Iago wrote:

Granted that 3/400 should take drawing hands off the pot, but if the button is loose aggresive and has AT or AJ for example, would he not still call? Similarly if the SB is holding AK or JJ TT would he not still call what is in effect a 300 raise in order to win 1200?

You want the loose aggressive guy to call if he has AT or AJ, and the other guy is making a mistake by calling 300 with an underpair. If he has JJ or TT he's flop a set aprox 1/8 of the time, so you would need at least 2400$ in your stack to make it worthwhile. If the button calls though he will probably call, so maybe your right and a $500 reraise is in order. The problem with this is that your putting almost half your stack in preflop, and you have to fold to a reraise from the small blind. Do you see why I think calling is better?

Iago wrote:

What are the odds of one of the remaining players holding AA or KK (particularily KK considering the smallish raises) and how many times out of 10 in that situation will my all-in then be called? Even if an opponent is holding KK, how many times will they drop that to an all-in raise for their entire stack or the majority of their stack, fearing that they are dominated by AA?? Again like every question this is as dependant on personality as direct odds, what is their fear of losing their entire stack in one hand as opposed to the odds they may be getting to play it?

I'm genuinely curious to get a "statistician" opinion and figures on this, the emotional side is obviously completely subjective...

The chances of the small blind having AA or KK depend entirely on the range of hands with which he would reraise the button. (we'll ignore the button as his range is so big). If the range is limited to AA KK AK or QQ, then the chance is 8/17. (There are 4 ways to have AA, 4 ways to have KK, 8 ways to have AK and one way to have QQ).

Since the button is so loose, and the good player might realise this, the range is probably slightly larger, so lets include AQ and 10 10 or JJ. Thats a further 16 ways, to its 8/33. To simplify we'll call that 1/4.

So 3/4 of the time you move in, you win the $350. 1/4 of the time you face AA or KK, and you lose those 4/5 times.

4 times you lose 2k
1 time you win 2k

so on average against AA or KK you lose 4/5 of your stack, which $1600

So if you made this move 4 times, once you would lose $1600 (on average), and three times you would win $350, which is $1050 for a net of -$550. So each time you move all in here you are losing about $100.

bohsman

without reading other replies, im flat calling with the queens and going all in on the AK both times.

Hitman Actual

Hectorjelly wrote:

The chances of the small blind having AA or KK depend entirely on the range of hands with which he would reraise the button. (we'll ignore the button as his range is so big). If the range is limited to AA KK AK or QQ, then the chance is 8/17. (There are 4 ways to have AA, 4 ways to have KK, 8 ways to have AK and one way to have QQ).

I think I'm missing something here: when you say that there are 4 ways to have AA, etc, are you including all four Aces? I reckon there are 6 AA combs, 6 KK combs, and 16 AK combs (AA = 4C2 = 6; KK = 4C2 = 6; AK = AAAAKKKK - AA - KK = 8C2 - 6 - 6 = 16). So the chances of AA or KK go down to 12/29.

Hectorjelly

Your right of course, it reduces the first range from 8/17 (47%) to 12/29 (41%). I shouldnt be allowed near a computer when Ive been drinking.

Hitman Actual

Hectorjelly wrote:

Your right of course, it reduces the first range from 8/17 (47%) to 12/29 (41%). I shouldnt be allowed near a computer when Ive been drinking.

Yeah, I know the feeling

Iago

Hectorjelly wrote:

You want the loose aggressive guy to call if he has AT or AJ, and the other guy is making a mistake by calling 300 with an underpair. If he has JJ or TT he's flop a set aprox 1/8 of the time, so you would need at least 2400$ in your stack to make it worthwhile. If the button calls though he will probably call, so maybe your right and a $500 reraise is in order. The problem with this is that your putting almost half your stack in preflop, and you have to fold to a reraise from the small blind. Do you see why I think calling is better?




The chances of the small blind having AA or KK depend entirely on the range of hands with which he would reraise the button. (we'll ignore the button as his range is so big). If the range is limited to AA KK AK or QQ, then the chance is 8/17. (There are 4 ways to have AA, 4 ways to have KK, 8 ways to have AK and one way to have QQ).

Since the button is so loose, and the good player might realise this, the range is probably slightly larger, so lets include AQ and 10 10 or JJ. Thats a further 16 ways, to its 8/33. To simplify we'll call that 1/4.

So 3/4 of the time you move in, you win the $350. 1/4 of the time you face AA or KK, and you lose those 4/5 times.

4 times you lose 2k
1 time you win 2k

so on average against AA or KK you lose 4/5 of your stack, which $1600

So if you made this move 4 times, once you would lose $1600 (on average), and three times you would win $350, which is $1050 for a net of -$550. So each time you move all in here you are losing about $100.

ok, but what if the tight good player is holding KK and you go all-in, how many times would he actually call? If he has AA then he's calling every time, but half the time he's actually holding KK and may fold believing he's up against AA. If he folds KK 50% of the time thinking he's dominated (and after a raise, re-raise, all-in, potentially called, he probably would [this depends on your table image which we haven't established]) then that gives you a net of $150 meaning you are winning around $35 per hand...

Hectorjelly

Iago wrote:

ok, but what if the tight good player is holding KK and you go all-in, how many times would he actually call? If he has AA then he's calling every time, but half the time he's actually holding KK and may fold believing he's up against AA. If he folds KK 50% of the time thinking he's dominated (and after a raise, re-raise, all-in, potentially called, he probably would [this depends on your table image which we haven't established]) then that gives you a net of $150 meaning you are winning around $35 per hand...

If your playing against somebody who wont call an all in with KK, then you can probably make a profit moving all in on him each time he raises. Seriously though, do you know anyone who folds KK preflop on regular basis? I think Hellmouth said hes folded it three times in his life, and he is the self proclaimed king of the big laydown.

Iago

True enough, but it still depends on what his impression of you is. After all losing $2K on one hand is significant enough. If he perceives you to be a very good and tight player and you suddenly throw $2k, your entire stack, into a pot he has to be worried that you're holding AA.

In saying that it would be very hard to get away from, I've dropped KK once preflop, and as it turned out I was right he had AA, but I've been beaten a number of times by going or calling an all-in bet preflop with KK only to run into AA..

Evil_Bilbo

1. All In
2. All In
3. All In

zonemelt

I'll read the other replies in a sec

Hand 1 - Call. Although I like raising all in if the solid player had position on me.

Hand 2 - Fold. This smells like a set that's just filled up trying to get paid off by AK.

Hand 3 - Preflop raise should have been bigger, to $200 or $250, because of limpers and my position. On the flop the pot has gotten pretty inflated (~$1700) so I push all in. The thought of calling hurts although an overcall would be nice. Not much folding equity to the semibluff on the turn is another reason.

Jono